Arizona: Suddenly, Not A Number One Seed

The Arizona Wildcats dominated the first two-thirds of the college basketball season. They won the NIT Season Tip-Off by beating Duke in Madison Square Garden. They won true road games at San Diego State and Michigan, two teams that currently occupy first place in their respective conferences. And at the end of January, they were undefeated at 21-0 overall, 8-0 in the Pac-12, and seemingly a lock for the top overall seed in the NCAA Tournament.

So the idea that Arizona might not even receive a #1 seed in the tournament sounds a bit preposterous. But that scenario is becoming more and more likely with each passing week, because of one important fact: the Selection Committee considers injuries when doling out seeds. All of Arizona's significant wins came with Brandon Ashley in the starting lineup -- and his foot will prevent him from playing again this season. That injury certainly doesn't invalidate those wins, but it does place the onus back on Arizona to prove that the Ashley-less version of this team isn't significantly worse than the one that was widely championed as the favorite to win the national championship. If it can convince the cognoscenti of that fact, then the Selection Committee can justify keeping the Wildcats on the top seed line despite the injury.

So far, though, Arizona hasn't fooled anyone into thinking that this post-Ashley team is on the same basketball plane as the pre-injury version. The Wildcats are 2-2 without Ashley (including the contest in which he suffered the injury) compared to 21-0 with him. That record could easily be 1-3 if not for a narrow escape at home over Oregon. After winning at San Diego State and at Michigan earlier in the season, Arizona has lost both of its road games this month, at California and at Arizona State. Their team shooting percentage in those two losses: 32% and 36%. If these offensive struggles continue, more road losses potentially loom with tricky games at Utah, at Colorado, and at Oregon still remaining. These early returns suggest that the current Arizona team simply isn't the same one that accumulated all those awesome wins a few months ago. That doesn't mean Arizona should be dropped down from a #1 to a #8 seed, or that this version of the team can't win the championship. It does, however, damage the legitimacy of Arizona's overall résumé in the eyes of a Selection Committee that takes such things into consideration when distributing those precious top overall seeds.

But there's another, far more ironic reason why the likelihood of a #1 seed is plummeting: because two of Arizona's prime competitors for those slots are actually going to benefit from their own injury situations. The obvious example is Michigan State. Like Arizona, the Spartans were one of the best teams in the country until they were struck by an injury plague that has resulted in four losses in seven games, including a home defeat to Nebraska. The difference between the two cases, though, lies in the fact that Michigan State's injured players are not out for the season like Brandon Ashley. Chances are that Keith Appling and Branden Dawson will be completely healthy before the NCAA Tournament begins, at which point Michigan State will be at full strength for the first time in months. Assuming that happens, the Selection Committee will likely give Michigan State a pass for the losses it suffered when it was playing with a depleted lineup. Arizona gets no such pass because Brandon Ashley isn't coming back; whatever Arizona is now is what Arizona will be in March. That puts Michigan State ahead of the Wildcats on the #1 seed pecking order.

The same goes for Florida. A short while ago, it seemed like Arizona was miles ahead of Florida because the Gators lost their two most significant road games -- at Wisconsin and at Connecticut. But like Michigan State, Florida will receive special consideration from the Selection Committee in some form because the Gators did not field their full team in either of those two losses. Scottie Wilbekin and Dorian Finney-Smith, two seniors who combine for 22 points per game, did not play at Wisconsin because of team-imposed suspensions. Against UConn, Florida played without a point guard in the final minutes because Wilbekin got hurt late and backup Kasey Hill missed the game with an ankle sprain; the Gators lost by one on a buzzer-beater. 23-0 against all other opponents, Florida has not lost a game with all of its players available. Therefore, in the eyes of the Selection Committee, Florida is virtually just as undefeated as Syracuse or Wichita State. And definitely ahead of Arizona in the line for a #1 seed.

So if the tournament started today, your number one seeds would be Syracuse, Wichita State, Florida, and a hypothetically-healthy-in-the-future Michigan State. Arizona's best chance of sneaking into that top four would come if Michigan State never manages to put its complete team on the floor. But even in that scenario, Arizona would still have to compete for that last spot with a team like Kansas (which should be a #1 if it wins the post-apocalyptic showdown that will be the Big 12 Tournament) or even San Diego State (which has a solid chance of finishing with just two losses). Remarkably, then, it appears as though it took less than three weeks for the team that dominated two-thirds of the season to lose its grip on a number-one seed that at one point was considered to be a foregone conclusion. And what was the cause? Not a dramatic locker room brawl or a string of positive drug tests or a head coach's mental breakdown. Just an injury to that team's fifth-most important player. As if you needed any more proof that greatness in college basketball is a delicate, delicate thing.

Winners and Losers After One Week of Madness

Winner: Florida Gulf Coast. It's not just about the school's two comfortable wins over two elite defensive teams. It's not just about being the first 15-seed to reach the Sweet Sixteen. What's truly shocking about the Florida Gulf Coast Eagles is the way they've won -- with brazen swagger, high-flying dunks, excessive sideline celebrations, and jaw-dropping alley-oops. They're like a carnival version of the 2011 VCU Rams. They're fun as heck. Best of all, Florida Gulf Coast University now owns the best winning percentage (2-0!) in NCAA tournament history, at least for a few more days. This is what March is about -- desperately rooting for a school that, just last week, no one even knew existed.

Loser: The Mountain West Conference. This was supposed to be the year that the MWC (ranked as the nation's best conference according to the RPI) finally broke out in the tournament. Instead, the league flopped big-time. New Mexico was the main culprit thanks to a mind-numbing loss to a Harvard team that had literally never won a tournament game before. Fifth-seeded UNLV, easily one of the ten most talented squads in the country, laid an egg against Cal in the first round. Boise State looked mostly helpless in a play-in game loss to La Salle. San Diego State could've reached the Sweet Sixteen on Sunday just by beating a 15-seed, but fell prey to the Florida Gulf Coast Dunk Factory. Colorado State at least won a game before being served to the Louisville Cardinals like a sacrificial lamb. It's not fair to make broad statements about an entire conference based on one year, but this has been going on for a while. In its entire history, the Mountain West is now something like 6-30 against teams from Power Six conferences in the NCAA tournament. That's ... not so good.

Winner: The Atlantic 10 Conference. Like the MWC, the Atlantic 10 got five teams into the tournament, prompting high expectations. And for the most part, the league has had an impressive showing. Saint Louis, VCU, and Butler all cruised in their opening-round games against double-digit seeds (a stark contrast to what New Mexico and UNLV did) before losing to tough opponents in the next round. Temple "upset" a more talented N.C. State team before giving Indiana a serious scare. And out of all of them, La Salle advanced to the Sweet Sixteen by winning a play-in game (against, fittingly, Boise State of the underachieving MWC) before beating Kansas State and Ole Miss. Unfortunately the conference is losing most of its best teams to realignment next year. But kudos for an excellent swan song.

Loser: Gonzaga. The Zags haven't advanced past the Sweet Sixteen since their first magical run in 1999. This was going to be the year they finally performed up to the high standard they've set for themselves. The road was wide-open thanks to the early eliminations of New Mexico, Kansas State, and Wisconsin in the West Region. But instead they couldn't advance past Wichita State in the Round of 32. And it's not like they played poorly. Here are the results of Wichita State's final handful of possessions, based on ESPN's play-by-play record, starting at about the six-minute mark in the second half when Gonzaga was up by seven:

6:05 Tekele Cotton made Three Point Jumper.

5:10 Cleanthony Early made Three Point Jumper.

4:23 Ron Baker made Three Point Jumper.

3:30 Carl Hall made Jumper.

3:10 Ron Baker made 2 Free Throws.

2:55 Ron Baker made Three Point Jumper.

1:32 Fred VanVleet made Three Point Jumper.

That comes out to 19 points on seven possessions. The Shockers turned a seven-point deficit into a five-point lead thank to some ridiculously-hot shooting (14-of-28 from long range in the whole game) by a team that doesn't even shoot three-pointers well. The Zags didn't lose this game. Wichita State grabbed it and refused to let go. Despite this disappointing finish, Gonzaga's accomplishments this year hopefully won't be forgotten.

Winner: Clutch guard play. The first week of the tournament went by without any real buzzer-beaters. There were still some big-time shots made on last-minute possessions, most notably Aaron Craft's three-pointer that rescued Ohio State against Iowa State. Honorable mentions awarded to Vander Blue's final-second go-ahead layup for Marquette against Davidson, Victor Oladipo's top-of-the-key jumper to clinch Indiana's win over Temple, Shane Larkin's three-point dagger for Miami against Illinois, and Tyrone Garland's layup against Ole Miss to improbably send La Salle to the Sweet Sixteen.

Loser: Any program with a poor tournament reputation. Once you get branded as a March underachiever, it becomes almost impossible to change that perception. Those snake-bitten schools did nothing to help themselves in 2013. Pittsburgh, for instance, still can't seem to shake its bad first-round mojo after a loss to Wichita State. Same goes for Notre Dame. Belmont always gets hyped as a sleeper Cinderella but never comes through. UNLV has lost in the Round of 64 in four consecutive years. Georgetown might be the worst culprit: after their loss to Florida Gulf Coast, the Hoyas have now lost five straight tournament games to double-digit seeds. These guys have got some work to do.

Winner: The road ahead for Florida and Ohio State. Of the top eight seeds in the Midwest and East Regions, seven survived to the Sweet Sixteen. Those two brackets are still loaded with landmines. But upsets in the West and South have given two programs an excellent chance of reaching the Final Four. One is Florida; thanks to other circumstances, the Gators can reach the Elite Eight just by beating a 14-seed, an 11-seed, and a 15-seed. That would be one of the easiest routes to a regional final ever -- assuming they get past the Florida Gulf Coast juggernaut, that is. Ohio State might be in an even better position. If the Buckeyes beat Arizona next week, their Elite Eight matchup would be against either Wichita State or La Salle. Pretty sweet deal.

Bracketeering, Part Four: The East Region

The East is basically divided into two stratospheres. The first contains Indiana and Miami, the two best teams in the region. The second is made up of everybody else, and they're all basically on the same plane. The "gap" between, say, #5 UNLV and #12 California is minuscule despite the seeding difference. So an Indiana-Miami regional final seems inevitable -- but the rest of the bracket? Wide open and totally unpredictable. Some scattered thoughts on picking this region:

1. The most over-seeded team in the tournament this year, by far, is Marquette. The Golden Eagles did win a share of the Big East title, which is probably why the Selection Committee saw fit to award them a #3 seed. Still, their only significant win away from home all year was an overtime victory at Pitt two months ago. They don't have a dominant player and can't shoot three-pointers. Plus, they're matched up against a red-hot, well-coached Davidson team that's a lot better than the average 14-seed. 3-seeds don't lose in the first round very often, but Marquette is closer to a 5-seed. And even if the Golden Eagles win, they draw either Butler or Bucknell in the Round of 32. Marquette isn't doing much damage this year.

2. A 12-seed has beaten a 5-seed in virtually every tournament for the last quarter-century. Those are the most popular upset picks and usually they jump right off the page. This year, they're actually tough to find. Most of the 5-seeds are excellent teams (Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, VCU). The one exception is UNLV in this region. The Rebels look vulnerable against #12 California, for more reasons than anyone should need. First of all, there's no way the Rebels deserved a 5-seed. Like Marquette, they hardly did anything away from home. That's a particular problem in this first-round game, which is taking place in San Jose, a virtual home game for Cal. Then, consider that 5-seeds from non-Power-Six conferences are particularly vulnerable to early upsets (like last year, when Temple and Wichita State were felled in the first round), especially when they face 12-seeds that are from a Power Six conference, like Cal. And the Mountain West Conference's historical record in the NCAA tournament is quite poor. If a 12-over-5 upset is going to happen, all signs point to Cal-over-UNLV as the likeliest possibility.

3. Of all the double-digit seeds in the tournament, #11 Bucknell has one of the best shots at reaching the Sweet Sixteen despite drawing Butler in the first round. The Bison have already played tough competition this season, almost winning at Missouri, and they have a dominant frontcourt presence in Mike Muscala. If they advance, their next opponent could be the overrated Marquette -- or maybe we get a Bucknell-vs-Davidson showdown with the Sweet Sixteen on the line?

4. There's no other way to say this: N.C. State vs. Temple is going to be awesome. There will be many shots. There will be no defense. There will be many points. Yes please.

5. At the end of the day, this region still has to come down to Indiana and Miami, right? Sure, there's a chance Syracuse's zone stops Indiana cold, and there's a chance Illinois shoots Miami right out of the gym. But the Hoosiers and Hurricanes are head-and-shoulders above everybody else in this bracket. Both have some truly breathtaking basketball talents. If they do meet in the regional final, chances are that game would be a memorable classic.

So, What Happens? Utter chaos, that's what happens. Marquette doesn't get to the Sweet Sixteen, but a double-digit seed does. UNLV goes down to Cal. Even Montana puts a scare into Syracuse (though the Orange do survive until the second weekend). Once the dust settles, Indiana and Miami are the last ones standing, and Victor Oladipo shuts down Shane Larkin as the Hoosiers advance to the Final Four.

Bracketeering, Part Three: The South Region

Thirteen expert analysts have revealed their Final Four picks on ESPN.com, from Jay Bilas to Jay Williams. They overwhelmingly prefer Louisville coming out of the Midwest, either Gonzaga or Ohio State from the West, and either Indiana or Miami from the East. As for the South? That's where the consensus breaks down. Each of the region's top five seeds were picked at least once; the #1 seed, Kansas, got as much support as the #5 seed, VCU. With the teams at the top bunched so closely together in quality, the South really is nothing more than a toss-up. Some scattered thoughts on picking this region:

1. The excellence at the top of the bracket really distracts from how unappealing the lower seeds are. #6 UCLA is playing without Jordan Adams; even with him, the Bruins were an up-and-down team at best. The four participants in the 8/9 and 7/10 games (Villanova, North Carolina, San Diego State, and Oklahoma) are all deeply flawed, and (with the exception of North Carolina) fairly bland. #11 Minnesota is the most ice-cold team in the entire tournament. And #12 Akron would have had excellent Cinderella potential ... before losing their point guard for the season. For the most part, the lower seeds in the South have little to offer.

2. The one exception, however, is thirteen-seed South Dakota State. Their star guard Nate Wolters (averaging 22.7 points per game) is a borderline NBA prospect who leads a high-scoring offense. If the Jackrabbits were going up against a legitimate defense in the first round, there'd be little to no chance of an upset. But they're facing Michigan. Not only do the Wolverines care a lot more about scoring than defending; they also lost to a #13 seed just last year (Ohio). Anything could happen if the game descends into a jump-shooting contest. While this potential upset isn't one of the more likely ones, the mere possibility of it happening should strike fear into the hearts of those picking Michigan to make a deep run.

3. One of the teams rooting hard for South Dakota State to pull off the shocker is VCU. If the fifth-seeded Rams advance against Akron, they'd hypothetically match up against Michigan, a team that rarely commits turnovers thanks to the hyper-efficient Trey Burke. VCU needs to force turnovers to win and might not be able to squeeze them out of Michigan. But if the Rams do somehow sneak their way into the Sweet Sixteen, their pressure defense would match up perfectly against Kansas. The Jayhawks don't have a reliable ballhandler. It's easy to picture Elijah Johnson and Naadir Tharpe getting burned repeatedly by VCU's press. Ironically, Kansas would probably rather take its chances against Trey Burke and Michigan's offense. That says a lot about the importance of matchups in this tournament.

4. There is no more frustrating game to pick in the first round than UCLA versus Minnesota. Despite being the 11-seed, Minnesota is actually favored to win. The Bruins will be at a massive disadvantage on the boards and freshman Jordan Adams is out for the tournament thanks to an injury sustained last week. Minnesota isn't exactly a lock though -- the Golden Gophers have lost eleven of their past sixteen games, including three in a row to Nebraska, Purdue, and Illinois. Thankfully, the winner here is going to get clobbered by Florida so we won't be subject to either one much longer.

5. It would be a huge shock if #2 seed Georgetown and #3 seed Florida don't meet for a chance to go to the Elite Eight. Both are trying to put an end to the negative narratives that have come to define them. Georgetown goes through long stretches of offensive futility and has drastically underperformed in recent tournaments. Florida has been miserable in crucial late-game situations, contributing to their 0-6 record in games decided by six points or less. At some point, Georgetown is going to have to actually score points and Florida is going to have to actually win a close game.

So, What Happens? Minnesota over UCLA is the only significant upset of the first round but the Golden Gophers are still terrible, even in victory. Michigan fails to live up to expectations for the second consecutive year by falling short of the Sweet Sixteen. Instead, it's Shaka Smart who solidifies his reputation as a March wizard by getting his VCU Rams to the second weekend. Georgetown almost goes home early again but survives scares from Florida Gulf Coast and San Diego State. And Florida never has to deal with its shortcomings in the clutch department, choosing instead to simply crush all of its opponents en route to a Final Four appearance.

Bracketeering, Part Two: The West Region

If a surprise team ends up making the Final Four, chances are it will come from the West Region. At the top you'll find the weakest #1 seed (Gonzaga) and weakest #2 seed (Ohio State) in the field, along with a #3 seed (New Mexico) that few people ever saw play. Throw in some lower-seeded sleepers like Wisconsin, Arizona, and Pittsburgh, plus potential Cinderellas like Belmont and Ole Miss, and the West could be the bracket that collapses in a whirlpool of delicious chaos. Some scattered thoughts on picking this region:

1. The primary concern about Gonzaga is how well their efficient offense will perform against tenacious defenses, the likes of which don't exist in the West Coast Conference. We're definitely going to find out. The Zags' path to the Final Four could potentially go through Pitt in the Round of 32, Wisconsin in the Sweet Sixteen, and Ohio State or New Mexico in the Elite Eight. All four of those teams are among the top 20 defensive units in the country. Good luck, fair sirs.

2. Every bracket has an Enigma Team that could go to the Final Four or lose in the first round. In the West, it's Arizona. The sixth-seeded Wildcats have a ton of talented players and they proved it by beating Florida and Miami earlier in the season. But they also finished poorly down the stretch in the Pac-12 and don't really have a true point guard. Having to face Belmont's excellent guards in the first round won't help, either. A first-round exit seems much more likely than a deep run.

3. In each of the last five NCAA Tournaments, a 4-seed has fallen to a 13-seed in the first round (last year, it was Michigan losing to Ohio). Kansas State looks like the most vulnerable candidate this time around. Whereas the other 4-seeds will be playing 13-seeds from tiny conferences, Kansas State is stuck playing the winner of the play-in game between La Salle and Boise State, both of which played in strong leagues that got five teams into the tournament.

4. One of the classic bracket-picking strategies is finding #12 seeds that have a good chance of beating #5 seeds. Those upsets happen at a surprisingly high frequency. But is anyone actually taking Ole Miss over Wisconsin in this region? Regardless of the Rebels' inspiring run through the SEC tournament, they're still not a particularly good team. Wisconsin will find a way to shut down the outspoken scorer Marshall Henderson. Defense trumps narrative.

5. The double-digit seed with the most long-term potential here? It's easily Iowa State. The Cyclones knock down more three-pointers than basically anyone. Their six core players all average at least nine points a game, giving them a balanced and dangerous offensive attack. Their defense? Mostly nonexistent. Yet given how many teams in this region struggle to score, Iowa State could do some damage if the shots are falling.

So, What Happens? A bunch of upsets early, as K-State, Arizona, and Notre Dame all fall in the first round. Marshall Henderson is never heard from again. New Mexico proves it belongs with the big boys by reaching the Sweet Sixteen. Gonzaga gets there too, but no further, thanks to Wisconsin's frustrating style. And Ohio State emerges from the fray to reach its second consecutive Final Four.

Bracketeering, Part One: The Midwest Region

Every year, the NCAA Tournament has a Region of Death. In 2013, it's the Midwest.

Marcus Smart, Peyton Siva, and Keith Appling. Rick Pitino, Mike Krzyzewski, and Tom Izzo. Doug McDermott, Mason Plumlee, Gorgui Dieng. They can all be found in the Midwest. Whoever emerges from this region will have earned it. Some scattered thoughts on picking this region:

1. It would be a huge surprise if the three top seeds -- Louisville, Duke, and Michigan State -- didn't all advance to the Sweet Sixteen with relative ease. Who can stand in their way? That's what makes this region so tough. We're almost guaranteed some epic games between national title contenders on the second weekend.

2. Usually, a #4 seed isn't a sleeper. In this bracket, Saint Louis is. The Billikens are fundamentally sound with a tenacious defense and balanced offense. They aren't going to lose to New Mexico State in the Round of 64 and if they get past the Oklahoma State/Oregon winner, Louisville will have its hands full in that Sweet Sixteen matchup.

3. #5 seed Oklahoma State got a raw deal. Not only did the Cowboys get stuck in the worst region ... and not only are they stuck in the same pod as Saint Louis ... they also got paired up with twelfth-seeded Oregon in the first round. That's hardly fair. Oregon is way better than your typical #12 seed (the other three were Akron, California, and Ole Miss ... yuck). The Ducks just won the Pac-12 tournament and were projected to be a single-digit seed. Apparently they ended up on the 12-line because of other conflicts. That's a tough break for the Cowboys even though I'd still expect them to win this game.

4. Middle Tennessee facing Saint Mary's is the ideal play-in game. Nobody knows how good these teams are because neither one faced very many quality teams. So they can slug it out in Dayton while the rest of us educate ourselves on the Blue Raiders and the Gaels. Perfect.

5. Each region typically has three "toss-ups" that are headaches to try and pick: the 8 vs. 9, 7 vs. 10, and 6 vs. 11 games. But the Midwest's toss-up contests each feature a team I deeply dislike, which makes them easier to pick than usual. One is eighth-seeded Missouri, a team that struggles mightily away from home and whose point guard Phil Pressey is prone to poor decision-making. Their first-round opponent Colorado State is much more reliable. The second is #10 seed Cincinnati, because the Bearcats' halfcourt offense makes eyes bleed. Creighton will be able to actually score the basketball. The third is Memphis, which seems heavily overvalued as a six-seed. The only NCAA Tournament team Memphis has beaten is Harvard. No joke. The Tigers play the winner of the Saint Mary's/Middle Tennessee play-in game; they're a likely upset victim if one of those two underdogs ends up being respectable.

So, What Happens? Chalk to the Sweet Sixteen. Memphis goes down, but not many other upsets -- Oregon, Valparaiso, and New Mexico State are far from impressive. The winner of the Saint Louis/Oklahoma State game becomes the dangerous team to watch. In the second weekend, Michigan State uses its massive size advantage to exploit Duke's rebounding weakness, but the Spartans can't handle Louisville's pressure in the regional final. And the Midwest will make up for its lack of an inspiring Cinderella with basketball of the very highest quality.

Last Chance for the Big Dance

Selection Sunday is just a day away. There are still about 11 spots in the NCAA Tournament up for grabs.

Well, that's oversimplifying things. Crazy stuff could still hypothetically happen in a few conference tournaments, like Maryland winning the ACC, which would throw a wrench into everything. But accounting for all the teams that have already locked themselves into the NCAA Tournament field regardless of any other shenanigans, there are still about 11 at-large spots available. Here are the programs in contention for those spots, ordered roughly from safest to most in danger of Sunday disappointment.

The Likelies (teams that are probably in the safe Group of Eleven, but "lock" is too strong a word)

1. Villanova: Did lose to Louisville in the Big East tournament, but took care of business by avoiding a bad loss to St. John's before that. Villanova has too many good wins (Louisville, Georgetown, Syracuse, Marquette) to miss out on March Madness. One would think.

2. Temple: Scored a huge comeback victory against VCU in the regular season finale. That, combined with an 11-5 record in the Atlantic 10 and nonconference wins over Syracuse and Villanova, ought to be enough for the Owls. Still not a lock thanks to some horrifying losses and an early exit from the Atlantic 10 tournament.

3. Iowa State: The Cyclones were down by as many as 14 points in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament against Oklahoma. A loss could have sent them to the NIT. Instead, they rallied to defeat another quality bubble team (on a neutral floor). Should be okay even after falling to Kansas in the semis.

4. Oklahoma: Thanks to the aforementioned comeback, the Sooners probably just got leapfrogged by Iowa State on the Selection Committee's totem pole. They've now lost three out of five, including defeats to Texas and TCU. This might have cost Oklahoma a bid -- in a different year. In 2013, the rest of the bubble is too weak for the Sooners to be relegated to the NIT.

5. Colorado: Actually a very nice resumé here. The 39th-best RPI, a sweep of Oregon, and wins over Colorado State, Arizona, and California. The Buffaloes would've been a lock ... had they not lost their final home game of the year to Oregon State. Thankfully they won the rematch in the opening round of the Pac-12 Tournament, though they were eliminated by Arizona a day later. Looking good.

6. California: In the same boat as Colorado. Cal should've been a lock, then lost the final two games of the season -- to Stanford and Utah. Oof. It would still be a surprise if the second-place team in the Pac-12 didn't make the tournament.

For you math wizards, that leaves only five bids remaining for everybody else. This is where things get sticky.

The True Coin-Flips (teams that legitimately won't have any idea about their fate until Greg Gumbel does/doesn't announce their name on Sunday's national broadcast)

7. Boise State: The Broncos' case rests almost entirely on how strong the Selection Committee thinks the Mountain West Conference really is. They went 9-7 in the MWC with wins over UNLV, Colorado State, and San Diego State, as well as a road nonconference win at Creighton. However, they bowed out in the first round of their conference tournament and can't add to their resumé. So they're stuck in bubble limbo. It may come down to the Committee deciding between a fifth team from the MWC and a third or fourth from the SEC. I'd rather see Boise State.

8. Saint Mary's: A difficult team to judge. The Gaels have a good RPI (33) and a nice 23-6 record (with half of those losses coming to Gonzaga); they went to the WCC title game; and they look pretty good. Yet they also did nothing outside of the West Coast Conference besides beating Creighton at home. Subjectively, Saint Mary's is good enough to make the tournament. It's also really easy to envision a scenario in which the Selection Committee makes an example out of the Gaels by leaving them out of the field as punishment for undertaking a pansy schedule.

9. La Salle: A lot like Boise State, except we're talking about the fifth team out of the Atlantic 10 instead of the MWC. The RPI is good at 38, and they beat Butler, VCU, and Villanova. A solid body of work here. The problem: they're out of the A-10 Tournament and risk being leapfrogged by one of the teams below.

10. Alabama: One of the big bubble winners on a busy Friday. The Crimson Tide won what was basically an elimination game against Tennessee to advance to the SEC semifinals, where they'll face Florida. A win in that game wouldn't just put Alabama in position for an at-large berth -- it would put them a win away from taking the decision out of the Committee's hands by simply stealing the SEC's automatic bid.

11. Middle Tennessee State: If an off-the-map school is going to get a surprise bid, this is the one. The Blue Raiders went 19-1 in the Sun Belt but were upset in the quarterfinals of their conference tournament, creating an interesting predicament. Their RPI ranks 31st in the country -- historically, an RPI that high is almost always good enough to make the tournament. Unfortunately, their only good win came against Ole Miss. That's all they've got. There's no way to know how the Committee is going to handle this wild card.

12. Ole Miss: It's bizarre that Ole Miss and Middle Tennessee State happened to play each other months ago. The latter's victory in that game could end up being hugely significant. However, Ole Miss does have an edge: they're still playing. They pulled off a must-have comeback victory against Missouri on Friday to advance to the semifinals of the SEC tournament, where they'll face Vanderbilt. A win in that game, and thus an appearance in the finals, could easily secure this team a bid.

The Faces Pressed Up Against the Window (teams that need either an obscenely generous decision from the Selection Committee or a deep conference tournament run to reach the field of 68)

13. Tennessee: Just came up short in the SEC quarterfinals against Alabama. That didn't help the key flaw on their resumé, a lack of a quality win away from home. How much respect will the Selection Committee have for the SEC? We'll find out soon enough.

14. Virginia: The Cavs have more than enough good wins. It's the bad losses that cripple their resumé and push their RPI into the 60s. The consensus was that they'd have to do damage in the ACC Tournament to stay alive; then they were blown out by N.C. State. Oh well. You should've beaten Old Dominion, Virginia. This will be an interesting litmus test with regard to what the Committee values more -- the ability to beat elite teams or the ability to avoid bad losses.

15. Maryland: If only the Terrapins played every opponent like they play against Duke. Their resumé now consists of two wins against the Blue Devils, one against N.C. State, and ... literally nothing else. Their nonconference schedule was miserable. They were swept by Virginia and Florida State. Getting to the ACC championship game was the bare minimum from the start, and even that might not be enough. Winning the whole tournament might be their only way in at this point.

16. Kentucky: Oh man. What happened here? Kentucky was trending upwards after beating both Florida and Missouri without Nerlens Noel. Then the Wildcats suffered one of the most jaw-dropping losses imaginable by falling to Vanderbilt in the SEC quarterfinals. It wasn't even close. And it absolutely should cost Kentucky a bid.

17. Massachusetts: Still alive in the Atlantic 10 tournament, and still technically a bubble team. Like Maryland, though, the Minutemen are behind too many teams in the queue and really need to win the A-10's automatic bid.

18 & 19. Baylor and Iowa: Both were on the periphery of the bubble entering the tournament, but both lost heartbreaking quarterfinal games. Almost certainly out.

This whole thing is very fluid. Teams are rising from the bubble grave (Maryland, Ole Miss, Alabama), and others are falling flat on their faces (Kentucky, Virginia, KENTUCKY). If the Selection Committee had to make its decision right now, those last 11 slots would probably be taken by the six "Likelies," along with, say, Boise State, Saint Mary's, La Salle, Middle Tennessee State, and [insert random SEC team here].

It's important to note, however, that most of those last few teams are idle. They're done playing and can't improve their stock. This leaves them vulnerable to being leapfrogged by teams that are still alive. In fact, if Alabama and Ole Miss both win Saturday in the semifinals (against Florida and Vandy,) they would probably both move into the projected field of 68, bumping two of those other helpless teams out. Suddenly, the SEC has become the central theater of bubble warfare. And the fact that La Salle and Saint Mary's suddenly have huge rooting interests in the SEC Tournament semifinals speaks to just how Mad things get around this time of year.

Five Weekend Bubble Games of Note

#11 FLORIDA AT KENTUCKY
The last time Kentucky had a do-or-die bubble game was two weeks ago, when the Wildcats beat Missouri in overtime. Since then, they've wasted all of that goodwill by losing their last two road games at Arkansas and Georgia. Now they're back where they started: needing a massive win to avoid becoming the 5th defending national champion since 1985 to miss the tournament altogether the following season.
The pick: Florida, but Kentucky isn't eliminated from tournament consideration just yet.

#4 KANSAS AT BAYLOR
Baylor has the Big 12's leading scorer, a likely lottery pick, and a handful of role players who went to the Elite Eight last year -- and the Bears are still on track to miss the NCAA Tournament. They did beat Oklahoma State, but their road win at Kentucky has deteriorated in value and a 17-13 overall record isn't going to cut it, not when two of those losses came at home to Charleston and Northwestern. There isn't a bigger disappointment in college basketball. This home game against Kansas represents their last chance to get back on the right side of the bubble.
The pick: Kansas. Baylor is not a good team.

MISSOURI AT TENNESSEE
Jordan McRae is on fire and the red-hot Volunteers have seven wins in their last eight games, including victories over Kentucky and Florida. Beating Missouri would complete the box set. If they pull this off, Tennessee would suddenly be in position for a relatively surprising NCAA Tournament bid.
The pick: Tennessee. Betting against Missouri on the road is one of the safer wagers in sports.

MARYLAND AT VIRGINIA
Since beating Duke, Maryland is 2-3 with losses to Boston College and Georgia Tech, and Virginia is 0-2 with losses to Boston College and Florida State. It's unlikely that both of these teams earn at-large bids, so this matchup amounts to something of a bubble elimination game. Winner stays alive, loser goes to the NIT.
The pick: Virginia. The Cavs haven't lost at home in ACC play and they're the better team anyway.

#21 VCU AT TEMPLE
Out of all of these bubble teams, Temple is the safest thanks to a neutral-court win over Syracuse and a road win at Villanova. But the Owls have also been prone to bad losses (Canisius? Duquesne?), so who knows what awful team they might lose to in the first round of the Atlantic 10 tournament. Beating VCU at home would seal the deal for Temple and eliminate any Selection Sunday stress.
The pick: VCU wins anyway -- the Rams have the 15th-most efficient offense in the country to pair with their trademark Havoc defense.

The Four Types of Bubble Teams

While most of the discussion within college basketball has centered around the #1 seeds, the debate over the teams on the "bubble" is even more significant. These are the 15 or 20 programs jostling with each other for the final few slots in the NCAA Tournament field. And though none of them are going to win the national title, they're slated to be 11- or 12-seeds -- in other words, the most likely candidates to pull off improbable upsets and bust our brackets. Deciding which of them make the field in the first place is a process with huge, domino-like repercussions. Most bubble teams fall under these four categories:

1. High Peaks, Lower Valleys
What should the Selection Committee value more -- the ability to get great wins, or the ability to avoid bad losses? The answer to that question will decide the fate of the teams in this category, all of which have proven they can hang with the elite, but also fail spectacularly against weaker opponents. The poster child here is Villanova. The Wildcats beat Louisville and Syracuse in the same week in January, and have also beaten Georgetown, Connecticut, and Marquette. But the losses are ugly: Columbia, Alabama, Seton Hall, and Providence (twice). Temple is another example, having beaten Syracuse, fellow bubble-dweller Villanova, and Saint Louis, but also losing to Canisius and four inferior teams within the Atlantic 10, including last-place Duquesne. Virginia has a strange case too: a nonconference win at Wisconsin and ACC wins over Duke, N.C. State, and North Carolina are all very impressive, until you see each of their seven stunning losses (George Mason, Delaware, Old Dominion, Wake Forest, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Boston College).
Verdict: All three pass the eye test, but all three need to avoid yet another bad loss in their conference tournaments. Based on their collective track records ... that's not exactly a given.

2. Dominant Season in a Minor Conference
Not all bubble teams have bad losses. Some actually have gaudy records. But they were achieved in small conferences, so we don't have any idea how good they really are. Memphis isn't even on the bubble, yet serves as the best example here -- the Tigers entered the national polls last week and are considered a tournament lock thanks to a 15-0 record in Conference USA. Here's the thing, though: their best nonconference win was against Harvard. Other minor conferences have similarly dominant teams: Akron is 14-1 in the Mid-American Conference, Belmont is 14-2 in the Ohio Valley, Louisiana Tech is 16-0 in the Western Athletic Conference, and Middle Tennessee is 19-1 in the Sun Belt. Who knows how the Selection Committee can judge these teams.
Verdict: Other than Memphis, none of these teams can feel confident about anything without winning their conference tournaments.

3. Thank Heavens for RPI
These teams are so far out of the public spotlight that most fans have no idea they're even in the tournament discussion. The RPI is their saving grace. Boise State, for instance, has an RPI that ranks 44th nationally, right behind tournament locks Notre Dame and Wisconsin. The only good team Saint Mary's has beaten is Creighton, but the Gaels have the 40th-best RPI. La Salle ranks 36th. Colorado is 30th. Are these virtually-unknown teams worthy, or are they RPI creations?
Verdict: Colorado should be fine with its wins against the top of the Pac-12 and Boise State benefits from playing in the strong Mountain West. La Salle and Saint Mary's probably need to open more eyes in their conference tournaments.

4. Decent Record in a Major Conference (Probably the SEC)
And this is where most bubble cases fall. Look no further than Iowa. If the Big Ten is such a strong league, then should the Hawkeyes' 8-9 conference record be good enough for a tournament berth? They've also beaten Illinois, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, with an RPI that ranks 53rd (although their nonconference schedule was pathetic). Iowa State in the Big 12 and Providence in the Big East have similar profiles. But most of these cases can be found in the SEC, which is so weak at the bottom that no fewer than four teams have built up deceptively-strong conference records: Kentucky (11-5), Ole Miss (11-6), Alabama (11-6), and Tennessee (10-7). Good luck separating those teams from each other.
Verdict: Based on the eye test alone, Iowa State is the best team in this group, while the rest of them have no right to participate in March Madness. But given the inherent chaos in conference tournaments, the SEC will probably get one or two of its bubble teams into the field, with Kentucky sitting as the most likely of the four.

New Mexico's Quietly Awesome Resumé

Within the last ten days, almost every single team in contention for a #1 seed has lost. Indiana at Minnesota, Miami at Wake Forest, Duke at Virginia, Michigan at Penn State, Michigan State at Ohio State, Syracuse at Marquette, Florida at Tennessee. So to heck with those guys. If the NCAA Tournament were to begin tomorrow, the Selection Committee should give a #1 seed to the New Mexico Lobos. As crazy as that notion might seem at first, their case is much stronger than anybody realizes.

First of all, New Mexico has the second-best RPI in the country. No joke. Is this a fluke? Looking at the rest of the RPI's top ten, it doesn't look that way:

1. Duke
2. New Mexico
3. Miami
4. Kansas
5. Michigan State
6. Louisville
7. Indiana
8. Gonzaga
9. Florida
10. Georgetown

Not a lot of controversy to be found there. Sure seems like the RPI has done a good job identifying which teams are the best. And it's telling us that New Mexico belongs in that group. Actually, on top of that group.

This is a team that has a whopping 16 wins against top-100 teams (based on RPI). Comparatively, Duke has 12, Gonzaga has 11, and Indiana has 10. Sixteen quality wins is a lot. Plus, they still have two top-100 teams left on their regular season schedule, and could potentially face two more top-100 teams in the Mountain West conference tournament. If they win out, they could end up with twenty quality wins. That's a lot, too. Even more than sixteen, in fact. Fun stat: not one of last year's #1 seeds won 20 games against top-100 opponents.

All of this does come with a caveat: the Lobos own one of the best home-court advantages in all of college basketball. Wins over talented conference foes UNLV, San Diego State, and Colorado State all came at home. So what have they accomplished elsewhere? A whole lot, actually. In neutral-court and road games, the Lobos are 10-3 with wins over Cincinnati, Connecticut, Colorado State (again), and Indiana State.

Another appealing thing about them is the lack of a really bad loss. They've only fallen four times on the season; three were on the road against tournament teams (Saint Louis, UNLV, and San Diego State). The fourth was the only semi-questionable one: at home against South Dakota State back in December. And SDSU is still a top-100 RPI team.

The most likely arguments against the idea of the Lobos getting a #1 seed will be based on misconceptions about their conference. The Mountain West doesn't get a ton of attention. But it ranks as the second-best league according to the RPI. More significantly, four or five of its nine teams are headed to the NCAA Tournament. The Big Ten is the only other league in the country with a rate that high. So the Lobos managing to win 11 of their 13 games within the Mountain West should be perceived as an impressive accomplishment, not a given. Furthermore, the numbers say that they played the third-toughest overall schedule in the country. No, New Mexico does not play in a cupcake conference and New Mexico does not play cupcake opponents.

This team has very quietly assembled an incredible body of work, and it's becoming more and more noticeable with every additional loss suffered by the other candidates for the top seeds. The Lobos just want to be noticed. They won games away from home, won games against good nonconference opponents, and won games within a cutthroat league. That's all one can ask for. It's a big if, but if the Lobos win the Mountain West conference tournament, they really should be a #1 seed no matter what anyone else does. Twenty quality wins, a top-two RPI, a top-three strength of schedule, just four losses, and both the regular season and postseason championships in a top-two conference? Heck, in what universe would that resumé not deserve a #1 seed?

An Unexpected Number One Seed

Pop quiz -- which of these two mystery teams has the better NCAA Tournament resumé?

	RPI ranking	Nonconference strength of schedule ranking	Record in non-home games	Record vs. top-100 RPI teams	Losses
Team A (25-2)	12th	21st	13-1	10-2	Butler, Illinois
Team B (24-3)	9th	73rd	8-2	10-3	Butler, Illinois, Wisconsin

They have remarkably similar profiles. Based on this information alone, Team A might be given the nod over Team B thanks to its superior nonconference schedule and better road record.

Team A is Gonzaga. Team B is Indiana.

That's not to say Gonzaga has a better resumé than Indiana. What that chart above doesn't take into account is conference affiliation. Indiana plays in the Big Ten, which according to RPI is the best conference in the country. Gonzaga makes its home in the significantly-weaker West Coast Conference, which ranks 10th in RPI and only has one other team with even an outside chance of making the NCAA Tournament (Saint Mary's). It's fair to question what the Zags' record would be if they played in Indiana's conference. "Worse" would be a safe assumption, especially considering one of their two losses came at home against Illinois, which isn't even one of the four best teams in the Big Ten.

But even when one factors in those conference inequities, the Zags are still enjoying an undeniably dominant season despite never appearing on anyone's TV guide. Thanks to a month-long winning streak, they've steadily risen in the AP Poll up to #3 in the country this week. They're 25-2 overall with a perfect 12-0 record in the West Coast Conference. Last week, they passed the most challenging test remaining on their schedule by winning at Saint Mary's. The Zags are now six more wins away from an undefeated WCC season, a conference tournament championship, and a final record of 31-2. If they do get those six wins (and there's an excellent chance they do), then the Selection Committee would have to seriously consider awarding this team one of the precious number-one seeds in the NCAA Tournament even though they've played most of the season in virtual anonymity. Would Gonzaga deserve that designation?

A lot of people would probably be opposed to it, mostly because of the inferior competition in the WCC. But that's where the Zags' nonconference record comes into play. They faced seven teams that are likely headed to the NCAA Tournament, and beat five of them. Those wins came against Oklahoma State (road), Oklahoma (neutral), Kansas State (neutral), Davidson (neutral), and Baylor (home). They came within a botched inbounds pass of winning at Butler and their only other defeat was against Illinois. It's not like those are bad losses; both of those teams have also beaten Indiana.

Gonzaga ended up with three wins against teams ranked in the top 25 in RPI. That's right in line with the other candidates for the top seeds: Miami, Duke, Michigan, Michigan State, and Arizona all have three, as well. Florida, Louisville, and Syracuse actually have fewer than three. While the Zags' average opponent is very likely worse than the average opponent of these other teams, they still have proven beyond a shade of doubt that they can compete with, and beat, upper-level competition. That's what matters most.

Besides -- the Zags do pass the all-important eye test. They're actually one of the more entertaining teams in the country to watch, so it's a shame their games don't tip off until the East Coast is fast asleep. It would be an injustice if Kelly Olynyk isn't named a First-Team All-American; the seven-foot junior is the most efficient player in the sport, averaging 18 points per game on 65% shooting. He's joined in the frontcourt by senior Elias Harris, who's in his fourth consecutive year of averaging double-digit points per game for Gonzaga. David Stockton and Kevin Pangos form an excellent point guard platoon, with Stockton providing the highlight-reel passes and Pangos shooting over 43% from three-point range. And Coach Mark Few's rotation often goes ten deep thanks to a flexible roster filled with role players and glue guys. He's got so many options that Przemek Karnowski, a seven-foot-one Polish freshman who may end up in the NBA, barely gets any minutes. The result of all this is the fourth-most efficient offense in the country (and what could've been the nation's longest winning streak had Stockton and Olynyk connected on one stupid inbounds pass).

Yes, they play in a mediocre conference, and we should obviously take their gaudy record with a grain of salt. But the reality is that Gonzaga has assembled an impeccable body of work, complete with several impressive wins, aggressive nonconference scheduling, plenty of success away from home, and domination of the inferior competition within the WCC. Watch them play and it's obvious that this isn't a fluke. A number one seed for Gonzaga? It sounds far-fetched. It's also six games away from becoming a reality.

The Curious Case of the Fighting Illini

Last night, the Fighting Illini of Illinois pulled off an unlikely and memorable upset over #1 Indiana. But are they going to be snubbed by the Selection Committee anyway?

Illinois, even after the win, is still just 3-7 in the Big Ten. There have been a few instances of teams with sub-.500 records in conference play earning a ticket to the NCAA Tournament. But most of them just missed an even record by a single game, going 8-10 or something along those lines. Illinois might finish significantly worse than 8-10.

The Illini have eight games remaining. One of them is a road game at Michigan, and one of them is a road game at Ohio State. A win in either of those contests seems unlikely, which already puts Illinois at nine conference losses. Their other six games are:

Minnesota (road)
Purdue (home)
Northwestern (road)
Penn State (home
Nebraska (home)
Iowa (road)

If they win all six, the Illini get to 9-9 in the Big Ten, which would definitely be enough to earn a tournament bid. Lose one (say, at Minnesota) and the Illini drop to 8-10, which isn't exactly desirable, but in this year's Big Ten, it would probably still be acceptable.

Drop another one of those games, though? The Illini would be 7-11, which starts to look really ugly. 6-12 would outright disqualify them. Neither scenario is impossible. Illinois has lost to Northwestern and Purdue once already this year. Iowa can be tricky on its home floor, where the Hawkeyes have already taken down Wisconsin.

So the Illini need to be careful. They've already done the hard part: assemble an impressive group of good wins. They've beaten Ohio State on the road, which is one of the ten hardest things to do in the sport. They've beaten Gonzaga on the road, which is another one of the ten hardest things to do in the sport. They blew out Butler in Maui. And now Indiana. All four of those teams are currently ranked within the top 14 in the AP Poll. Nobody else can boast four wins like that.

No, the Illini don't need another marquee win. The only thing that can sink them now is that bad loss that sends their Big Ten record into unsightly territory, sinking their postseason chances. So don't mess around, Illinois. We need you in the NCAA Tournament. You're one of those teams that makes March Madness so perfectly unpredictable, because you could conceivably do anything from "make an Elite Eight run" to "lose in the first round to Middle Tennessee State," and we have no way of knowing which. So take care of business, Illinois. You've already beaten Ohio State, Gonzaga, Butler, and Indiana. Beating Purdue, Northwestern, Penn State, and Iowa really shouldn't be too much to ask.

March Madness: 4/2 in Review

They were the best team in the country, they were the overwhelming favorites entering the tournament, and now, the Kentucky Wildcats are officially the 2011-2012 NCAA champions.

Kentucky breezed through the first twenty minutes, entering halftime with a 41-27 lead. Then Kansas spent the entire second half trying to unleash the late-game comeback they had come to rely on. The Wildcats wavered slightly in the final minutes--reminiscent of the late collapse by John Calipari's Memphis team against Kansas in 2008--but they were simply too much for the Jayhawks, winning 67-59.

Anthony Davis didn't have to be strong offensively (just six points on 1-of-10 shooting) to be the game's most dominant player. Not only did he block six shots, pull down 16 rebounds, and pick up three steals, he caused havoc in the paint for Kansas' frontcourt. Thomas Robinson and Jeff Withey were just 8-of-25 from the floor.

It had been said all along that Kentucky could not win the tournament without strong play from Marquis Teague.  As it turns out, he finished with 14 points, just two turnovers, and perhaps the biggest shot of the game, a late 3-pointer from the top of the key with the shot clock winding down.

There will certainly be some anti-Calipari comments in the coming days that will have to do with his previous, vacated Final Four trips or the "ease" of coaching teams overflowing with NBA talent. Regardless of all that, Calipari deserves this. The mere fact that he coaches elite players does not make his job easier. We saw plenty of teams this year with future lottery picks that failed to show the unselfish dominance that the Kentucky Wildcats did so consistently. Just look at the underachieving of Connecticut or Illinois or Washington. Heck, even North Carolina and Baylor failed to make the Final Four. It's hard to argue that Calipari isn't one of the best coaches in the country.

Too close to the camera, Dick.

One final note: several months ago, perhaps in January or maybe even earlier, Dick Vitale made an on-air prediction that he would actually repeat on several different occasions. He said that Anthony Davis would end up winning the four big honors: being the Freshman of the Year, the National Player of the Year, the tournament's Most Outstanding Player, and the #1 overall pick in the NBA Draft. He's already won three of those, and he's got the last one pretty much locked up. A bold thing to predict, and a really nice call by Vitale.

Anyway, the most significant takeaway from all this is that baseball is just around the corner. After months of making do with Tim Tebow, Jeremy Lin, and Fab Melo, we've almost arrived at seven glorious months of Miguel Cabrera playing third, Albert Pujols playing for the Angels, Buster Posey back behind the plate, Andy Pettitte back in pinstripes, Bobby Valentine making stupid puns, Ozzie Guillen saying stupid things, and some Japanese-Iranian guy named Yu who's supposed to be all that and a bag of chips. It's about time.

March Madness: 3/31 in Review

And then there were two.

Kentucky continues its steady march: Louisville refused to die. They dominated the offensive glass, and their defense gave Kentucky problems at times. But Kentucky had an answer for every frantic Louisville run, even with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist limited to 23 minutes and nine points. Newly-anointed National Player of the Year Anthony Davis finished with 18 points, 14 rebounds, and five blocks, while senior Darius Miller added 13 in the 69-61 victory. The Wildcats shot the ball far too well (57%) to lose this one against their hated in-state rivals. Coach John Calipari, armed with the best team of his career, is one more win away from his first national championship.

Kansas storms back: The Jayhawks looked dead in the water at times in the first half, down 13 multiple times. Then, like they've been doing all tournament, they played their best basketball in the second half. Some lockdown defensive possessions, 18 points from Thomas Robinson, and seven blocks from Jeff Withey won Kansas the game, 64-62. Robinson and Withey held Jared Sullinger and DeShaun Thomas to just 8-of-33 from the field. Getting this team to the national championship game--by beating two infinitely more talented teams, North Carolina and Ohio State, in the process--is Bill Self's most impressive career achievement. This sets up a national final featuring the two best players in the country, two of the most successful coaches in the country, and two of college basketball's most storied programs. Bring it on.

March Madness: 3/25 in Review

There will be no Butler-like surprises in this year's all-blue blood Final Four: Kentucky and Kansas will join Ohio State and Louisville in New Orleans next week.

Baylor no match for Kentucky: After four minutes, Baylor was up 10-5 over the Wildcats. That didn't last long. In the blink of an eye, Kentucky was up 21-10 en route to a 44-22 halftime advantage and an 82-70 victory. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Anthony Davis, potentially the top two picks in the NBA Draft, combined for 37 points despite foul trouble. Kentucky went to the line a whopping 44 times and was hardly challenged by the third-seeded Bears. John Calipari's team will face Rick Pitino's Cardinals in a juicy New Orleans matchup.

Kansas pulls away from UNC late: For much of the game, North Carolina seemed capable of advancing to the Final Four without Kendall Marshall. The Tar Heels turned the ball over 14 fewer times than they did against Ohio while finishing with 18 assists. But then in the final four minutes, UNC looked lost and was held scoreless in the Jayhawks' game-deciding 12-0 run. Tyshawn Taylor broke out of his scoring slump to lead all scorers with 22 points while Jeff Withey and Thomas Robinson were more than capable of handling UNC's elite frontcourt. They'll have another tough assignment with Jared Sullinger, DeShaun Thomas, and Ohio State waiting in the Final Four.

March Madness: 3/24 in Review

The road was bumpy for Louisville and Ohio State, but both advanced to the Final Four on Saturday.

Florida lives by the three, and dies by it: The Gators' three-pointers were falling in the first half, and they quickly grabbed the lead against Louisville. As has been the case throughout the season, though, they didn't have an answer when the shots started missing. Even with Peyton Siva disqualified, the Cardinals clamped down on defense and rallied in the final minutes to beat Florida 72-68. Like UConn last year, Louisville has used the Big East tournament championship as a springboard to reach the Final Four. They'll play either Kentucky or Baylor next week.

Ohio State seizes control in the second half: Syracuse was one of the country's most dominant teams this season; Ohio State's year was much more up-and-down. But the Buckeyes have played up to their potential during this tournament and proved it by knocking off the Orange 77-70. Despite William Buford's shooting slump, Jared Sullinger and Lenzelle Smith Jr. hit enough shots to keep Syracuse at bay. Thad Matta's team will play either North Carolina or Kansas for the right to play for the national championship.

March Madness: 3/23 in Review

This year's Elite Eight got its first four members: Syracuse, Louisville, Ohio State, and Florida.

Syracuse survives Wisconsin: The Badgers just wouldn't quit, hitting shot after shot to remain within striking distance despite early double-digit deficits. They even briefly snatched away the lead from the Orange in the second half. But the Orange managed to hold on for the win, 64-63, as Wisconsin failed to get a good look in its final possession. It was another balanced scoring effort for Syracuse, with C.J. Fair, Scoop Jardine, Dion Waiters, and Brandon Triche all scoring in double figures. The Orange will face #2 Ohio State with a Final Four berth on the line.

Louisville's defense upends Michigan State: Tom Izzo's Spartans are the first #1 seed to fall. Fourth-ranked Louisville held Michigan State to sub-30% shooting and forced 15 turnovers en route to a decisive 57-44 victory. Gorgui Dieng dominated the interior for the Cardinals, blocking seven shots with nine rebounds. Rick Pitino stays perfect in the Sweet Sixteen and his suffocating defense will be tasked with shutting down Florida's potent attack on Saturday.

Ohio State's 17-1 run ends Cincinnati's season: The Bearcats were in this one with 10 minutes remaining, using a 19-4 run to briefly grab the lead. But the Buckeyes responded with a 17-1 run of their own to grab control of the game and eventually win by 15 points. Aaron Craft contributed 11 points, all in the second half, while Jared Sullinger and DeShaun Thomas combined for 49. Ohio State's battle with top-ranked Syracuse should be an electrifying showdown.

Florida shuts down Marquette's stars: The Golden Eagles have been leaning on Darius Johnson-Odom and Jae Crowder all season long. But against the Gators, the two combined to shoot 10-for-30, limiting Marquette's powerful offense to just 58 points. Freshman guard Bradley Beal was the game's dominant offensive player, hitting on 8 of his 10 shots to score 21 points. Florida will need more players to step up if they're going to overcome Louisville's pressure defense in the Elite Eight. But Billy Donovan deserves a lot of credit for getting his 7th-seeded Gators to the brink of the Final Four in consecutive years despite an up-and-down season.

Dick's Predicktions

This section is devoted to tracking and judging predictions made by colorful basketball analyst Dick Vitale. To what end? Fortunately, I'm not obligated to provide an answer to that question. Here are some predictions he made back in February that we can already evaluate:

Prediction: "Pittsburgh is making the NCAA tournament."
Outcome: Nope. Making this prediction in the preseason, when Pitt was a top-10 team, would have been understandable. But the Panthers were already 3-7 in the Big East when Vitale issued this proclamation. Unsurprisingly, Pitt went 4-7 down the stretch. And heck, they didn't even get an invite to the NIT. However, Pitt did beat Butler in the CBI semifinals on Wednesday. So kudos for that. Dick 0, World 1.

Prediction: "No one is going to beat Syracuse in the regular season."
Outcome: Proving that the Curse of Vitale is alive and well, the Orange lost their first game after this prediction was made. Dick 0, World 2. However, in his defense, 'Cuse didn't have center Fab Melo for that game, and that was their loss until the Big East Tournament semifinals. So this wasn't a terrible prediction, merely a bad one.

Prediction: "I'm going Giants, baby...24-20, Giants win."
Outcome: Congrats to Vitale, who correctly picked the Super Bowl winner. The score wasn't too far off either (actual: 21-17). Dick 1, World 2.

Prediction: "LeBron James is going to win the MVP."
Outcome: The MVP hasn't been awarded yet, but this one looks pretty good for Vitale, considering the beastly season LeBron is having in Miami. Though to be fair, picking the best basketball player in the world to win his sport's MVP award six weeks into his best season is a bit like predicting that Albert Pujols is going to hit a few dingers. No points will be awarded yet.

March Madness: So now we'll take a look at Vitale's bracket, which is free domain on ESPN.com. He isn't doing so hot, ranking in the 33rd percentile overall. He only picked three first-round upsets, getting one right (N.C. State) and two wrong (West Virginia, UConn). Like a lot of people, he got burned by picking Missouri and Duke to make deep runs, but he also had Florida State, Michigan, Vanderbilt, and Wichita State each winning at least two more games than they actually did. He also guessed half the Sweet Sixteen correctly, but five of his Elite Eight are already eliminated.

Vitale's Final Four? Kentucky, UNC, Missouri, and Florida State, with Kentucky winning the whole thing. We'll see how he does this weekend.

Jason Whitlock Hates Your Bracket

I love reading Jason Whitlock's articles. Chances are, when you click on a Whitlock link (a Whitlink? patent pending), you're in for a good 1,000 words of odd diction, hidden innuendos, backhanded slams, off-topic tangents, and the like. His newest piece on FoxSports.com, entitled Kansas State's Jamar Samuels a victim of NCAA sham, is no different. It begins:

As has become custom, President Obama kicked off the World Series of Brackets from inside the White House, filling out his NCAA tournament gambling sheet on national television.

This reads like a Mad Lib. The World Series belongs to baseball. World Series of Brackets = nonsense. The correct term is 'NCAA tournament,' which Whitlock obviously knows because...it appears in the second half of this sentence. And 'NCAA tournament gambling sheet' is also nonsense. Just say 'bracket.' Is this meant to be funny or quirky? I have a headache and we're only one sentence in.

The Big Dance,

Finally, some correct terminology.

amateurism’s greatest scam,

[double-take]

remains relevant primarily because of America’s addiction to wagering.

That's reasonable. The NCAA tournament is popular only because Americans like gambling. This explains why the World Series of Poker is one of television's most-watched* sports events in the country.

*claim may be counter-factual.

The play on the court is sloppy and uneven.

Anecdotal. Subjective. Irrelevant. Gaaahhh.

Most Americans can’t identify the players.

Other things most Americans can't identify:
1. Iraq on a map.
2. The Electoral College.
3. How long it takes for the Earth to revolve around the Sun.
4. The Bill of Rights.
5. And so on.

So this isn't really saying much.

We’re light years removed from when Larry Bird and Magic Johnson, Patrick Ewing and Hakeem Olajuwon and the Fab Five and North Carolina staged unforgettable postseason basketball clashes.

I cannot believe that Whitlock is trashing the NCAA tournament in the middle of March. This is blasphemy. This is the modern-day equivalent of practicing witchcraft in Salem, Massachusetts, circa 1692.

The Bracket — i.e. gambling — is college basketball’s biggest star. Joe Lunardi, ESPN’s year-round “bracketologist,” is more well-known nationally than any player.

There are hundreds of relevant college basketball players in the country. How many other bracketologists do you think there are? No, seriously, Jason Whitlock. Ask yourself that question. You'll realize why this statement is complete garbage.

The context is provided to illustrate the absurdity of the NCAA rule that cost Kansas State fifth-year senior Jamar Samuels his final collegiate game.

This is the simple point you were trying to get to all along. So why did you have to call the NCAA tournament a sham motivated by gamblers? The rule can be absurd on its own. Your article can start right here, and your audience wouldn't already be totally disgusted with you.

Twenty-four hours before the Wildcats departed on their NCAA tournament road trip, Samuels accepted $200 in potentially impermissible benefits from the founder of the AAU program that supported him as a child...Samuels, the emotional leader of the Wildcats, their best rebounder and second-best scorer, watched in street clothes as the Fab Melo-less and vulnerable Orange eliminated K-State from the tournament.

Now, you can argue Samuels and the Wildcats got what they deserved, as Digger Phelps sanctimoniously did on ESPN over the weekend.

You can argue that, because you'd actually be right, considering Samuels broke a rule. If you'd like to question the rule's existence in the first place, then that's your right. Just know that I'd be more willing to listen to your reasoning if you weren't the same guy who called March Madness a scam.

Referencing his by-the-letter-of-the-law days as the head coach at Notre Dame 20 years ago, years spent primarily recruiting kids from nuclear families, Phelps pointed out he told ND recruits not to accept any benefits from outside their families.

As per, you know, NCAA rules.

Not to steal from political commentator Bill Maher, but Phelps lives in the “privileged bubble,” an area removed from reality that is off limits to kids like Jamar Samuels.

Mostly irrelevant. Digger Phelps was essentially saying "you should follow the rule!" and not "the rule is 100% correct and I'm glad it exists!" Big difference. You can make this into a socioeconomic issue if you please, and question whether the rule is fair and just. But calling Phelps privileged and out of touch when he was arguing for enforcement of an existing rule isn't really fair.

In 2012, what is family? And who is in yours?

Nothing like some existential questions in the middle of an article about college basketball.

...If his biological family didn’t have the cash, where should have Samuels turned for spending money? K-State coach Frank Martin? Martin is the man who promised to be Samuels’ collegiate father figure. Martin is the leader of K-State’s basketball family. Martin is paid more than a million dollars a year. He can afford it.

Dangerous territory, man. Once you open the door to 'coaches giving players money,' there's no coming back.

But the NCAA rule book prohibits Martin from doing what is right. And the NCAA media slave catchers live for the day — even years later — they learn of a head coach sharing his wealth with his players.

Okay. Whoa there. Listen. The NCAA makes billions from these athletes playing basketball. So yeah, there's an expectation that the NCAA will look out for Jamar Samuels, not suspend him from his final game. Any rational person would agree with this. But hey, when you say things like, "NCAA media slave catchers," I don't feel like immediately jumping into your bandwagon, okay?

And now, going Big Picture, you're also conveniently breezing past the fact that Jamar Samuels and lots of guys like him are being handed a scholarship and a degree to play a game. Okay? To play a game with a ball and a hoop. All things considered, that's a decent deal. Sure, there are some major kinks in the system. There's some injustice. But, BIG PICTURE, that's a pretty awesome set-up.

...Samuels came to Kansas State dreaming of being an NBA player. He’ll leave Manhattan, Kan., with a degree and as the winningest player in the history of the school.

So like I said, big picture, that's not too bad, eh?

It’s a great legacy that was tarnished by the NCAA’s fraudulent, president-celebrated, media-enforced “amateur” bracket pool.

To recap: Jamar Samuels was punished for breaking a rule. Jason Whitlock blames the following people/things:
1. The NCAA.
2. Digger Phelps.
3. President Obama.
4. "The bubble of privilege."
5. The media.
6. Slave catchers.
7. Gambling.
8. The rules.
9. The World Series of Brackets.

College basketball and its NCAA tournament are a government-approved, nationally televised, multibillion-dollar scam and we’re supposed to care that Malone gave Samuels $200 to spend while K-State was visiting Pittsburgh? Really?

I wish I lived in the “bubble of privilege” Digger Phelps inhabits. The real world is embarrassingly unfair.

True that. And it's sad that Samuels missed his final game because of something silly. But the real world could've been far, far crueller to Jamar Samuels, who after all, only missed 40 minutes of a basketball game and now walks away from Kansas State University with an all-expenses-paid degree and a brighter future. All of which prompted Jason Whitlock to call the entire system a disgraceful sham. Maybe he's just upset because his bracket had K-State going all the way.

Kick Him While He's Down

CBS Sports columnist and noted jerkface Gregg Doyel has some choice words for Missouri head coach Frank Haith, whose team was just shocked in the first round by 15-seed Norfolk State, 86-84.

OMAHA, Neb. -- Frank Haith did not distinguish himself on Friday, not during the game when Mike Anderson's his 30-win Missouri Tigers became just the fifth No. 2 seed to lose a No. 15 -- and not afterward when he basically said Norfolk State was lucky to win.

Clever! I see what you did there! You wrote 'Mike Anderson,' then crossed it out, as if to say that Anderson, former Mizzou head coach, is more responsible for the Tigers' 30-win season than Haith. Classic. Classic Doyel.

Because after all, Anderson recruited all those current players that Haith stole coached. And that's all that matters when it comes to coaching. Recruitment. It's not like Haith had to do much of anything during those 30 wins, except stand on the sidelines and pretend like he gives a crap call the occasional timeout. He probably doesn't even like his players, or his job. I bet he's a Commie.

Look, these are his words. Not mine. I'm just now finding them after the craziness that was four games in eight hours in Omaha on Friday, but I found his words. Wasn't hard, seeing how he said them over ... and over ... and over ...

In his brief introductory statement to the media, Haith devoted half of his remarks to Norfolk State's fluke points:

"They had two [baskets] on air balls on weak-side rebounds, and they banked a couple of 3's in," Haith pointed out.

Great. Awesome. No, these comments aren't ideal. But, Gregg Doyel, you left off the second half of that sentence. The full quote was: "They had two points on air balls on weak-side rebounds, and they banked a couple of 3's in, but they were better than us going after loose balls and rebounding the basketball which ended up doing us in."

Seems like that last part is kind of important to the integrity of the comment. Leaving off half of a quoted sentence to make your dumb argument seem stronger = bad journalism.

Thanks, Frank. This loss was a fluke. Got it. Not that he was finished.

After Missouri's players spoke to the media, it was back to the coach. Back to the excuses. On the first question to Haith, a question about Missouri's field-goal shooting occasionally being subpar, Haith somehow used that question about his team's offense to talk about Norfolk State's fluke luck on offense. First he discussed NSU star Kyle O'Quinn, then he noted that "there were two air-ball rebounds where they got six points off of." Haith concluded by stating, "So loose balls, air-ball rebounds ..."

Oh my god. We get it. Frank Haith was a little bitter after he watched his entire season go down the drain in the first round against a team no one's ever heard of with a "15" next to its name. We can't possibly cut him some slack?

A few questions later, Haith was asked about the state of basketball, the fact that a 15-seed can beat a two, that college kids are just, after all, college kids. And Haith talked briefly about the tournament, and neutral courts, then went back to his favorite point -- that this loss wasn't his fault. It was a fluke:

"As long as they stay in the game, the momentum, then you bank a couple of 3's, which they did, it becomes a ballgame," Haith said.

Got it, Frank. This loss, not your fault.

Those 30 wins, though -- your brilliance, right?

Given the caustic tone of Doyel's words, it's pretty safe to assume that he just hates Frank Haith for whatever reason. In fact, when Haith was first hired, he called the move "bizarre," saying it "makes no sense, on any level." So I'm guessing this attack on Haith's questionable postgame comments was fueled in part by a personal grudge. And now I find myself defending Frank Haith, which is ironic because I don't even like Haith that much either.

But hey, how's about we look at the facts.

When Frank Haith was hired less than a year ago, the move was almost universally panned. Even Mizzou fans thought it was a bad hire. The fact that Haith wasn't the university's first choice was very public, too, as they didn't turn to him until their hot pursuit of Matt Painter failed. I'm sure all of this affected Haith.

Then he shows up to coach a team of almost-exclusively upper-classmen, none of whom he recruited or even knew. The group had some chemistry issues down the stretch the previous year, which resulted in a lackluster showing in the first round of the NCAA tournament and their former coach leaving for Arkansas. Unsurprisingly, Missouri wasn't picked to finish in the top three in the conference.

Then the team's best player, Laurence Bowers, tears his ACL. He's out for the season. Missouri is left with a drastically undersized lineup--only one player is listed as 6-foot-9 or taller. Frank Haith is coaching a team with seven scholarship players and a four-guard lineup that features shooting guard Kim English at the power-forward position. No one think Missouri can possibly match up with the conference's formidable big men--Thomas Robinson, Perry Jones III, etc.

Then guess what happens? Missouri wins its first 14 games, finishing the nonconference schedule undefeated. The team with a questioned coach and uncertain chemistry becomes the ultimate example of how formidable a team becomes with unparalled effort and unselfish play. The Tigers travel to Baylor, ranked #3 in the country, and outplay the Bears' enormous front line despite inferior size to win 89-88. They rally from eight down with 3 minutes remaining to beat rival Kansas at home. Ricardo Ratliffe has one of the most efficient seasons in college basketball history. Marcus Denmon becomes one of the country's most feared closers. Frank Haith is named the AP Big 12 Coach of the Year. Skeptics turn into believers. They stop asking, "How will Missouri match up against Team X?" and start asking, "How can Team X possibly match up against Missouri?"

Then Missouri beats Baylor for the third time to win the program's conference tournament championship in over 60 years. The Tigers finish with 30 wins, the #3 national ranking, and a #2 seed in the NCAA tournament. All of this happens under the cloud of knowledge that 2012 is Mizzou's last year in the Big 12.

So entering the tournament, Frank Haith is facing the prospects of ultimate redemption. After being mocked for months, he has led Missouri to one of its best seasons ever despite incredible adversity. He can give the Tigers their first-ever Final Four appearance in his first year at the program. Seniors Marcus Denmon, Kim English, Ricardo Ratliffe, and Matt Pressey can leave the program they've transformed knowing they've taken their school to heights it has never before reached.

Then Norfolk State happens, and it all goes up in smoke.

The Tigers shot 52% from the field, made 10 3-pointers, and committed only 8 turnovers, but still lost to the fifteenth-seeded Norfolk State Spartans 86-84. No tournament team has ever suffered that kind of loss. 20 points each from Phil Pressey, Marcus Denmon, and Michael Dixon wasn't enough to beat someone named Kyle O'Quinn, who scored 26 points with 14 rebounds. Suddenly, after one stunning game, Frank Haith goes from the top of the basketball world to an embarrassingly early tournament exit. Despite his dream-like season, despite being named the National Coach of the Year by the U.S. Basketball Writers Assocation, he'll likely spend the next few months answering questions about the uncertain future of Missouri basketball and alleged violations at Miami. Once again he'll hear those whispers--or in Gregg Doyel's case, screams--about whether or not he was the right man for the job in the first place, after all he's done.

So maybe--just maybe--it's understandable that Frank Haith was a little bitter during that postgame press conference. You'd think months of outstanding coaching would give the guy the benefit of the doubt. You'd think his season would be defined by the adversity he overcame and the accomplishments his team earned rather than a few sentences that came out of his mouth after a gut-wrenching loss. You'd think that Haith, rather than the guy who went 18-14 for the Arkansas Razorbacks this season, would get the bulk of the credit for Missouri's success. But not according to Gregg Doyel. And that's a shame.