On Thursday, the Texas Rangers officially announced an eight-year, $120 million extension with their shortstop, Elvis Andrus (who has already played in over 600 major league games despite only being 24 years old). Coincidentally, the Rangers also have an even younger shortstop in their minor league system named Jurickson Profar, who's almost-universally recognized as the best position-player prospect in all of baseball. He's a more-than-capable defender who hit 14 homers with a .820 OPS in Double-A last year -- as a 20-year old middle-infielder. He could be ready for the majors as soon as this summer. But Andrus is now locked in at shortstop for the foreseeable future. At second base, Ian Kinsler is just entering Year One of a five-year contract worth $75 million. There's no room for Profar in Texas.
The Rangers now have three options:
A) Play Profar at second base and move Kinsler to another position (first base or outfield).
B) Trade Kinsler.
C) Trade Profar.
Plan A looks like the best one on paper, because it allows Texas to keep all three of their middle infielders. But Kinsler is far less valuable at a position other than second base: he doesn't hit as well as a typical first baseman or outfielder, and such a move would eliminate the defensive value he provides. Ian Kinsler at a position besides second base isn't worth $75 million, nowhere close. Plus, for what it's worth, he was resistant to the idea of a switch during the offseason, and the Rangers might not be willing to go through another ugly Michael Young situation again.
If the Rangers could find a way to make Plan B work by trading Kinsler, they'd have to consider it. But I'm not so sure teams would be lining up for the chance to pay Ian Kinsler $75 million through 2017. Especially considering he'll be 32 in June, and his offensive production took a nosedive last year. The Dodgers would probably take him, given the bottomless pit of cash that the team is swimming in, but the Rangers probably wouldn't get much -- if anything -- back in return. At that point they'd just be giving away a solid player for nothing, and what's the point of that?
No, assuming Kinsler is sticking around at second base, the most efficient use of the Rangers' resources would be Plan C: trading Jurickson Profar. And it just so happens that the perfect trade target is out there waiting for them: Giancarlo Stanton.
Giancarlo Stanton hit 93 home runs before he turned 23 years old. That's more than Ted Williams had at that age; more than Jimmie Foxx; more than Ken Griffey Jr. In fact, only five players hit more career home runs before their 23rd birthday than Stanton: Mel Ott, Eddie Mathews, Alex Rodriguez, Tony Conigliaro, and Frank Robinson. Needless to say, those are good baseball players. Stanton's OPS has increased from .833 in his first season to .893 in his second to .969 last year, when he also led all of baseball in slugging percentage (.608). He had a higher slugging percentage than the guy who won the Triple Crown. As a 22-year-old. In just his third full season. Playing for the Miami Marlins. On a surgically-repaired right knee. With virtually no lineup protection. In a pitcher's park. Hot damn.
Stanton won't hit free agency until 2017. Which means that if Team X traded for him tomorrow, Team X would have him under contract for the rest of 2013, and 2014, and 2015, and 2016. That simple fact, along with the above paragraph, makes Stanton the most valuable trade chip in baseball not named Harper or Trout. So why would the Marlins deal him away? Because they probably won't be any good for a long time, and because it's extremely unlikely that their cheap owners will want to pay him once he gets expensive, and because, well, why would Stanton want to sign a long-term extension with this dysfunctional franchise? Trading Stanton now, while he still has four years of team control left, would maximize the Marlins' potential return. Four years of Stanton is so incredibly valuable that there are only a handful of hyper-elite prospects the Marlins would even consider accepting in exchange for him. Jurickson Profar is one of those few -- a low-risk, low-cost, potential-franchise-cornerstone that the Marlins so desperately need.
On the Rangers' side, giving up Profar would sting. In fact, they'd probably have to include several additional prospects along with Profar to make a Stanton deal work, which would damage their farm system even more. But if there's a team in baseball that could ever afford to trade away perhaps the best prospect in baseball, it's the Rangers, thanks to Elvis Andrus and his new long-term extension. Regardless, Stanton would be worth it. The Rangers have a need for outfielders, with Nelson Cruz scheduled to be a free agent after this season and David Murphy being, you know, just David Murphy. And Stanton could wreak untold damage playing his home games in the Rangers' homer-happy ballpark, sandwiched between Elvis Andrus and Adrian Beltre. It's a drool-worthy scenario.
Giancarlo Stanton is a generational talent. The kind you trade for, no matter the cost, the instant he becomes available. The last time a hitter of his caliber was traded at such a young age was more than five years ago, when these same Marlins dealt away a dude named Miguel Cabrera.
Miguel Cabrera, through age 22: 405 games, 78 home runs, .300/.366/.523, .889 OPS, 133 OPS+
Giancarlo Stanton, through age 22: 373 games, 93 home runs, .270/.350/.553, .903 OPS, 141 OPS+
The Rangers have a chance to fix a roster inefficiency by swapping one of their excess shortstops for an MVP-caliber outfielder. The Marlins have a chance to cash in an elite trade chip they may never get to use themselves in order to rebuild their franchise around younger, cheaper players, including the best prospect in baseball. Jurickson for Giancarlo. It makes too much sense.
Showing posts with label Miami Marlins. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Miami Marlins. Show all posts
Friday, April 5, 2013
Thursday, November 15, 2012
How Do You Solve a Problem Like the Marlins?
Back on Opening Day, the Marlins' hopes were high. Armed with new uniforms, a new logo, and a new stadium, they were poised to be serious contenders. Their notoriously-cheap front office had spent almost $200 million in the offseason on big free agents. The outspoken Ozzie Guillen was hired to be the manager. The Marlins had finally ditched their old identity and arrived as major players on the baseball scene.
The Miami Marlins didn't take just a hatchet to their roster. They shook it like an Etch-a-Sketch, and poof--any evidence suggesting the 2012 Marlins ever existed was erased forever.
The results of this systematic purge are startling. Of all the players on that promising Opening Day roster, the following ones are no longer in the Miami organization: the catcher, first baseman, second baseman, third baseman, shortstop, center fielder, four-fifths of the starting rotation, top two bullpen arms, and the manager. The three marquee free agents signed last winter to so much hoopla--Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, and Heath Bell--are all gone. The payroll went from over $100 million in 2012 to a projected $25 million in 2013. And almost half of that figure is owed to one player, Ricky Nolasco, who is a free agent after next season (if he isn't traded before then). The only player the Marlins currently have signed to a major league contract in 2014 is Jeff Mathis, a catcher making $1.5 million. The rest of the roster? It's filled with somewhat-promising-but-unpolished prospects and minor league veterans making the league's minimum salary. The only notable exception is outfielder Giancarlo Stanton, who is poised to emerge as baseball's best young power hitter in a generation. But with the skeleton of a team surrounding him, why would he ever want to sign an extension to stay in Miami?
The future of Marlins baseball is extremely cloudy just twelve months after being so promising. The most hated owner in sports, Jeffrey Loria, basically just scammed the citizens of Miami for tens of millions of dollars. He lobbied for public money to fund his new stadium by promising to make the team competitive, and signed a hodgepodge of free agents to maintain his illusion. Then he dumped them all for cents on the dollar after just one tough year.
But here's the thing: from a baseball perspective, the Marlins did the right thing.
That old team, ingloriously dissolved, wasn't going anywhere. The hitting wasn't good enough, the pitching depth was awful, the bullpen was a sieve, its manager a joke. It was an expensive, poorly constructed roster, with flaws that were exacerbated by its bloated egos, personalities, and salaries. Why pretend that hideous construct of a baseball team had any shot of winning a title? Why not take that phone call from the Blue Jays and grab that opportunity to wipe the slate clean? Dozens of executives across all sports have often wished for the chance to press the 'reset' button and start over. The Marlins have been given that chance.
Yes, on paper, Miami got ripped off by the Blue Jays. They gave up five legitimate major league players, two of whom--Reyes and Johnson--can be great if healthy. In return, they received a lot of youth and no sure things. But if the Marlins aren't going to be good anyways, why continue to pay an aging and injury-prone Jose Reyes $20 million per year? Why wait around for Mark Buehrle's arm to fall off? Why not cash in on the final year of Josh Johnson's contract before he becomes a free agent after next year? So the Marlins didn't get any recognizable players back from Toronto. So what? They got $160 million off the books and brought in some interesting young players. They got a mulligan.
The problem is that it looks bad when a scumbag owner trades away all of his team's good players for a bag of peanuts. It looks even worse when that owner vowed to improve his team while lobbying for a taxpayer-funded stadium. But just like the Red Sox when they traded away Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, and Carl Crawford, the Marlins did the right thing, as lopsided as the trade might seem. They have erased the mistakes of offseasons past. Those mistakes could have crippled the franchise for years. Instead, the Marlins have been given a rare opportunity: a fresh start. A chance to learn from those embarrassing mistakes and build from scratch.
What will they do with that chance? Now that's another matter entirely.
| Jose Reyes, Heath Bell, and Mark Buehrle have all been traded less than a year after signing in Miami. |
Except, as it turns out, the Marlins were a terrible baseball team. They finished in last place and lost 93 games. By midseason, the front office decided to pull the plug on their failed experiment. They traded away many of their best players, including former star Hanley Ramirez, in July. They fired Guillen when the season came to a merciful end. They shipped embattled closer Heath Bell off to Arizona. And this Tuesday, the cleansing process was completed. The Marlins finalized a gargantuan trade with the Blue Jays, dealing away shortstop Jose Reyes, starting pitchers Mark Buehrle and Josh Johnson, infielder Emilio Bonifacio, and catcher John Buck in exchange for $160 million in salary relief and a gaggle of faceless prospects.
The Miami Marlins didn't take just a hatchet to their roster. They shook it like an Etch-a-Sketch, and poof--any evidence suggesting the 2012 Marlins ever existed was erased forever.
The results of this systematic purge are startling. Of all the players on that promising Opening Day roster, the following ones are no longer in the Miami organization: the catcher, first baseman, second baseman, third baseman, shortstop, center fielder, four-fifths of the starting rotation, top two bullpen arms, and the manager. The three marquee free agents signed last winter to so much hoopla--Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, and Heath Bell--are all gone. The payroll went from over $100 million in 2012 to a projected $25 million in 2013. And almost half of that figure is owed to one player, Ricky Nolasco, who is a free agent after next season (if he isn't traded before then). The only player the Marlins currently have signed to a major league contract in 2014 is Jeff Mathis, a catcher making $1.5 million. The rest of the roster? It's filled with somewhat-promising-but-unpolished prospects and minor league veterans making the league's minimum salary. The only notable exception is outfielder Giancarlo Stanton, who is poised to emerge as baseball's best young power hitter in a generation. But with the skeleton of a team surrounding him, why would he ever want to sign an extension to stay in Miami?
The future of Marlins baseball is extremely cloudy just twelve months after being so promising. The most hated owner in sports, Jeffrey Loria, basically just scammed the citizens of Miami for tens of millions of dollars. He lobbied for public money to fund his new stadium by promising to make the team competitive, and signed a hodgepodge of free agents to maintain his illusion. Then he dumped them all for cents on the dollar after just one tough year.
But here's the thing: from a baseball perspective, the Marlins did the right thing.
That old team, ingloriously dissolved, wasn't going anywhere. The hitting wasn't good enough, the pitching depth was awful, the bullpen was a sieve, its manager a joke. It was an expensive, poorly constructed roster, with flaws that were exacerbated by its bloated egos, personalities, and salaries. Why pretend that hideous construct of a baseball team had any shot of winning a title? Why not take that phone call from the Blue Jays and grab that opportunity to wipe the slate clean? Dozens of executives across all sports have often wished for the chance to press the 'reset' button and start over. The Marlins have been given that chance.
Yes, on paper, Miami got ripped off by the Blue Jays. They gave up five legitimate major league players, two of whom--Reyes and Johnson--can be great if healthy. In return, they received a lot of youth and no sure things. But if the Marlins aren't going to be good anyways, why continue to pay an aging and injury-prone Jose Reyes $20 million per year? Why wait around for Mark Buehrle's arm to fall off? Why not cash in on the final year of Josh Johnson's contract before he becomes a free agent after next year? So the Marlins didn't get any recognizable players back from Toronto. So what? They got $160 million off the books and brought in some interesting young players. They got a mulligan.
The problem is that it looks bad when a scumbag owner trades away all of his team's good players for a bag of peanuts. It looks even worse when that owner vowed to improve his team while lobbying for a taxpayer-funded stadium. But just like the Red Sox when they traded away Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, and Carl Crawford, the Marlins did the right thing, as lopsided as the trade might seem. They have erased the mistakes of offseasons past. Those mistakes could have crippled the franchise for years. Instead, the Marlins have been given a rare opportunity: a fresh start. A chance to learn from those embarrassing mistakes and build from scratch.
What will they do with that chance? Now that's another matter entirely.
Sunday, July 15, 2012
Wednesday, July 4, 2012
Marlins Acquire Carlos Lee...
...but unless they're also acquiring 2006, I don't see this one working out.
Saturday, June 23, 2012
The Marlins Are Streaky
Ozzie Guillen. Carlos Zambrano. Giancarlo Stanton. Emilio Bonifacio. The Miami Marlins have some interesting characters (all with great names), but that doesn't make them any less streaky:
Marlins in May: .724 winning % (21-8)
Marlins in June: .200 winning % (4-16)
In May, the Marlins won more often than the 1927 Yankees (who had a .714 winning percentage). And now, just one month later, they are losing at a rate not seen since the 1890 Pittsburgh Pirates, then known as the Alleghenys (who finished 23-113, 66 1/2 games out of first place, and featured baseball luminaries such as Doggie Miller, Crazy Schmit, and Peek-A-Boo Veach).
So, it's safe to say that: the Marlins are quite streaky.
Marlins in May: .724 winning % (21-8)
Marlins in June: .200 winning % (4-16)
In May, the Marlins won more often than the 1927 Yankees (who had a .714 winning percentage). And now, just one month later, they are losing at a rate not seen since the 1890 Pittsburgh Pirates, then known as the Alleghenys (who finished 23-113, 66 1/2 games out of first place, and featured baseball luminaries such as Doggie Miller, Crazy Schmit, and Peek-A-Boo Veach).
So, it's safe to say that: the Marlins are quite streaky.
Sunday, May 13, 2012
Heath Bell Just Knows How to Win
Friday: the Marlins are trailing the Mets 5-4 in the top of the ninth, so they bring in the recently-demoted Heath Bell for an inning of work to keep the game close. Bell does his job, throws a scoreless inning, and lowers his ERA to 9.28. The Marlins score two in the bottom of the ninth. Bell gets his first win of the season.
Sunday: the Marlins are tied with the Mets 2-2 in the top of the ninth, so they bring in Bell again, this time to keep the game tied. He's awful, surrendering two hits, two walks, and two runs on 28 pitches. His ERA rises to 10.03. But because the esteemed Giancarlo Stanton smashes a monster, walk-off grand slam in the bottom of the inning, Bell gets his second win of the season.
There are two possible ways to interpret this two-game sample.
One: the win statistic is ridiculously flawed, because Bell went 2-0 for just two innings of work in which his ERA was 9.00 and his WHIP was 18.00, and both times left the game with his team trailing, and both times emerged victorious only because his offense scored timely runs.
Two: Heath Bell single-handedly defeated the Mets twice in one weekend series, and his 9.00 ERA during that span is cruelly misleading because mere numbers simply can't capture the great extent to which Heath Bell just knows how to win.
Sunday: the Marlins are tied with the Mets 2-2 in the top of the ninth, so they bring in Bell again, this time to keep the game tied. He's awful, surrendering two hits, two walks, and two runs on 28 pitches. His ERA rises to 10.03. But because the esteemed Giancarlo Stanton smashes a monster, walk-off grand slam in the bottom of the inning, Bell gets his second win of the season.
There are two possible ways to interpret this two-game sample.
One: the win statistic is ridiculously flawed, because Bell went 2-0 for just two innings of work in which his ERA was 9.00 and his WHIP was 18.00, and both times left the game with his team trailing, and both times emerged victorious only because his offense scored timely runs.
Two: Heath Bell single-handedly defeated the Mets twice in one weekend series, and his 9.00 ERA during that span is cruelly misleading because mere numbers simply can't capture the great extent to which Heath Bell just knows how to win.
Wednesday, April 25, 2012
Yu Gotta Be Kidding Me, And Other Tidbits
| Another thing in Yu Darvish's favor: great hair. |
- Darvish gem spawns fresh round of bad 'Yu' puns: Conventional wisdom said that the Yankees' lineup would cause the Rangers' pricey Japanese import Yu Darvish all sorts of problems. In his first three starts, Darvish was criticized for spotty fastball command and a failure to attack hitters--both trends that could be exploited by New York's lineup of patient hitters.
This, however, was not so on Tuesday night. The Yankees had no answer for Darvish, who located his mid-90's fastball to both sides of the plate and threw his diverse assembly of breaking pitches for strikes. He shut out the Yankees into the ninth inning, striking out ten while outdueling fellow countryman Hiroki Kuroda. Granted, there are still concerns about the right-hander's long-term ability to adjust from the Japanese style of pitching once a week. But a Texas rotation that includes this dominant version of Darvish, as well as Derek Holland, Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison, and Colby Lewis, could be incredible.
- National treasures: The surprising Washington Nationals own the best record in the NL, probably because they just don't allow other teams to score. The pitching staff has the lowest ERA in baseball and allows opponents to hit just .200. Their five starters so far:
Stephen Strasburg: 1.08 ERA, 0.92 WHIP
Jordan Zimmermann: 1.33 ERA, 0.70 WHIP
Gio Gonzalez: 1.52 ERA, 0.85 WHIP
Ross Detwiler: 0.56 ERA, 0.94 WHIP
Edwin Jackson: 4.26 ERA, 0.84 WHIP
The Nats are 14-4 despite injuries to their two best offensive players, Ryan Zimmerman and Michael Morse. And the Nats are more likely to maintain their winning ways than the NL's other surprise team, the Dodgers, mostly because Strasburg (23), Zimmermann (25), and Gonzalez (26) are not Ted Lilly (36), Chris Capuano (33), and Aaron Harang (33).
| Ozzie not likin' what he's seein'. |
- Meet Miami's crack relief squad: With the Marlins winning 1-0 in the bottom of the seventh against the Mets on Tuesday, Miami starter Josh Johnson got the first two outs of the inning, then walked Lucas Duda. Johnson was removed from the game and replaced by reliever Randy Choate, who walked Justin Turner. Choate was removed and replaced by Steve Cishek, who walked Scott Hairston to load the bases. Cishek was removed and replaced by Mike Dunn...who, in the most predictable plot twist ever, walked Josh Thole to force in the tying run. The baseball gods showed their displeasure by allowing the Mets to win in the following inning on Lucas Duda's two-out RBI single that literally hit and caromed off of yet another Marlins reliever, Edward Mujica.
| That one time when Cliff Lee was a Mariner. |
- Sleepless in...New York: Rest assured that Yankees GM Brian Cashman won't be trading with Seattle again anytime soon. He's been burned by Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik each of the last two times they've talked. In July of 2010, Cashman thought he had a deal in place to acquire Cliff Lee from Seattle for prospects Jesus Montero, Adam Warren, and David Adams. But Seattle balked at Adams' physical at the last second and asked for both Eduardo Nunez and Ivan Nova instead, while continuing to shop Lee. The ace ended up with Texas and helped beat Cashman's Yankees in the ALCS that year. Cashman went back to Zduriencik this offseason and swapped Montero and Hector Noesi for Michael Pineda and Jose Campos, but Pineda will require labrum surgery before he throws a pitch for New York. Since the Mariners' front office is now associated with the two biggest 'what ifs' of his career, Cashman won't be asking Zduriencik out for drinks in the near future. At least the decision to hang onto Nova and Nunez seems to be working out.
- And in the Long-Term Department: There are a lot of exciting young pitchers entering baseball right now, from Yu Darvish and Matt Moore to 2011 draftees like Gerrit Cole, Danny Hultzen, and Trevor Bauer. But perhaps the most exciting arm of all is the one who's furthest removed from the majors: Dylan Bundy. The Orioles were lucky to grab Bundy out of high school with the fourth overall pick as he could have been the top overall selection in another draft class. He's incredibly polished for a 19-year-old out of high school, already boasting impressive command of an upper-90's fastball and solid offspeed pitches. He's faced 40 batters so far with Low-A Delmarva and the results have been eye-poppingly good: 21 strikeouts, one measly walk, and zero hits. Dylan Bundy: a name to keep in mind.
Tuesday, April 3, 2012
MLB Season Preview: Miami Marlins
New stadium, new logo, new uniforms, new manager, new faces, and a new willingness to spend big bucks: these Marlins are barely recognizable.
Offense: It's easy to argue that Miami has the best offense in the NL East. Jose Reyes was the offseason's biggest acquisition, and he's joined atop the lineup by fellow speedster Emilio Bonifacio. Hanley Ramirez, poised to come back strong after a down 2011, fills the hole at third base. Giancarlo Stanton is one of the game's top emerging power threats, having hit 34 homers as a 21-year-old last year. Logan Morrison and Gaby Sanchez are two more young sluggers with their best numbers yet to come. There's not a great deal of depth to withstand a major injury, but on paper, this emerging offense has serious potential.
Pitching: The Marlins' season may very well hinge on the health of Josh Johnson. He's a dominant pitcher, as seen by his 2.30 ERA in 2010, but he never pitched past May last year thanks to shoulder problems. Anibal Sanchez's ERA went up to 3.67 last year even though his peripheral stats improved; he's a good bet to improve on that number if he can stay healthy. Luckily, the Marlins added Mark Buehrle, one of the game's most durable pitchers. Ricky Nolasco and Carlos Zambrano compose the unspectacular back of the rotation. The bullpen is actually quite deep, even with Juan Carlos Oviedo (formerly Leo Nunez) suspended and Heath Bell's numbers sure to take a hit.
Breakout Candidates: While Giancarlo Stanton has already broken out, he could lead the National League in home runs as a 22-year-old, which would be rather impressive. The true breakout candidate is Logan Morrison, who struggled through a controversial 2011 but has the tools to be yet another offensive threat in a dangerous lineup.
 |
| He spent all winter whining, but Hanley is A-OK now. |
| The Marlins can't win unless Josh Johnson's shoulder is screwed on correctly. |
 |
| Known as Mike for his first two seasons, this prolific slugger now prefers Giancarlo. |
3 Key Questions: How many innings will the Marlins get from Josh Johnson? How does Hanley Ramirez handle the move to third? And do the Marlins have the necessary depth to withstand injuries and make a real playoff push?
Best Case Scenario: Stanton and Ramirez are MVP candidates, Reyes stays healthy, Josh Johnson makes 30 starts, Zambrano recaptures some former glory, and the Marlins win the NL East.
Worst Case Scenario: Reyes gets hurt, Johnson makes 10 starts, Ramirez demands a trade, Heath Bell falls apart, Carlos Zambrano gets into a fistfight with Ozzie Guillen, and the Marlins' lack of minor league depth is exposed in their fourth-place finish.
Predicted Finish: The Marlins will improve significantly from last year. However, expecting Reyes to play in 155 games, Johnson to throw 220 innings, and Zambrano to suddenly remember how to pitch again would mean ignoring everything we already know about those players. The Marlins finish in third place and a few games out of a playoff spot.
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