Hiroki Kuroda: Baseball Ace

"People are overlooked for a variety of biased reasons and perceived flaws."
-- Peter Brand, 'Moneyball'

There's a scene in the early part of the movie "Moneyball" in which Brad Pitt (as Billy Beane) and Jonah Hill (as Peter Brand) announced their free agent targets to the rest of the Oakland Athletics' staff. The room full of skeptical scouts groaned as the three underwhelming names were announced: Scott Hatteberg, Jeremy Giambi, and David Justice. Each had a flaw that rendered them totally undesirable to the much of the baseball establishment -- Hatterberg couldn't throw, Giambi had off-the-field issues, and Justice was old. But the existence of those flaws was exactly what made them desirable to Beane and Brand. They were undervalued by everyone else, and the A's exploited that ignorance. This process also led Beane and Brand to relief pitcher Chad Bradford, whose services were similarly shunned because he "threw funny."

In the decade since "Moneyball," baseball has gotten smarter and better at finding hidden inefficiencies like these. But like most things, baseball can never be perfectly efficient. Those "biased reasons and perceived flaws" that Peter Brand referenced still exist, causing players to be overlooked or undervalued. And there might be no better evidence of this phenomenon than Hiroki Kuroda. Two offseasons ago, Kuroda was coming off a stellar 2011 season in which he threw 200 innings with an ERA of 3.07. At that point, his career ERA in Major League Baseball was a very solid 3.45. But he ended up settling for a one-year contract with the New York Yankees for $10 million, while comparable (or worse) pitchers like C.J. Wilson and Mark Buehrle were getting deals worth several times more. Like Scott Hatteberg or Chad Bradford, Kuroda was undervalued because he was guilty of four perceived "flaws" that rendered him imperfect in the eyes of many around baseball.

1. He was old. Everybody fetishizes young pitches, but nobody likes old ones. Old pitchers deteriorate, break down, and get hurt. Kuroda was 37 entering last season. He had thrown a total of about 2,400 career innings between Japan and the United States. Like David Justice, he was considered to be past his prime, or at least close to falling over a cliff. This ignored the fact that Kuroda actually had the best season of his career at age 36. Plus, one of last year's Cy Young Award winners, R.A. Dickey, was also 37 years old. Not all pitchers in their late-30's need to be immediately sent to the glue factory.

2. He couldn't win. Baseball is still very much an old-school sport, and is biased towards pitchers who Win Games. In four years with the Dodgers, Kuroda's career record was under .500 (41-46). Of course, this was hardly his fault. How could it be, when his ERA in those seasons was 3.45. The real culprit was the Dodgers' dismal offense (back then, Yaisel Puig had not yet descended from Olympus). In fact, in three of Kuroda's four years there, the Dodgers ranked in the bottom third of the league in runs scored. Still, Kuroda won himself the unfair notoriety of being a pitcher who "couldn't win."

3. He pitched in the NL West. For some reason, this fact hurts the perception of many players (especially pitchers). It's not just about the publicity disparity between East and West. It's about the reputation that NL West players have earned for themselves -- like numbers posted out there have to be taken with a grain of salt, because, you now, it's the NL West. The division is perceived to be somehow "lesser" or "easier" compared to the rest of baseball. This is especially true for pitchers, because three of the division's five ballparks (Dodger Stadium, Petco Park, and AT&T Park) are enormous and pitcher-friendly (this school of thought conveniently ignores how hitter-friendly the other two ballparks are -- Coors Field and Chase Field). The division is also infamous for being home to inferior offenses (blame the Padres for this one). So when a pitcher like Kuroda moves out of that friendly environment and relocates to the AL East -- where the parks are smaller, offenses are more fearsome, and designated hitters exist -- people are inherently wary, even if those fears are motivated by a misunderstanding of the NL West.

4. He was Asian. This was probably Kuroda's biggest miscalculation, being Japanese. The bias against Asian pitchers is very real and very strong. It's probably buoyed by a few high-profile disappointments who came over from Japan, like Hideo Nomo, Hideki Irabu, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Kei Igawa. It's interesting to note that this bias is actually being discredited as we speak, thanks to the unprecedented success being enjoyed by Asian pitches at the moment -- not only Kuroda and Yu Darvish, but also Hisashi Iwakuma, Wei-Yin Chen, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Koji Uehara, and Junchia Tazawa. A banner year for the continent, really.

For all of these reasons, Kuroda didn't receive lucrative multi-year offers after his 2011 season, instead settling for a one-year deal for $10 million with the Yankees. There were, of course, skeptics. An old Asian pitcher with a poor career record moving from the NL West to Yankee Stadium? Based solely on perception, Kuroda was a prime candidate to crash and burn in New York. So when his first nine starts with the Yankees resulted in a 3-6 record and an inflated 4.56 ERA, the vultures were circling.

Ever since then, Kuroda has done nothing but turn all of those biases upside down. After that nine-start rough patch, his ERA for the rest of the 2012 season was 2.92. This year, it's 2.59. Age didn't affect him -- at 37, he threw a career-high 219.2 innings last year, plus another 16 in the playoffs. Winning games wasn't a problem -- despite continuously poor run support, Kuroda is 22-15 in his Yankees career. Moving from the NL West to the Yankee Stadium bandbox was startlingly easy for him; in fact, his ERA in Yankee Stadium has somehow been a run-and-a-half better than his road ERA. And so far, believe it or not, the past failures of a few of his Japanese countrymen have not hindered his performance in the slightest.

Through 45 career starts and nearly 300 innings with the Yankees, Kuroda owns a 3.14 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Over that stretch, he's had the 12th-best ERA in all of baseball, in a virtual tie with both of last year's Cy Young Award winners, David Price and R.A. Dickey. For quite a while now, he's been an ace. Yet any team in baseball could've had him last year for just $10 million, which is just slightly more money than what Heath Bell is making. Baseball keeps getting smarter, but there are always undervalued Scott Hattebergs and Chad Bradfords out there for the taking. Hiroki Kuroda is Exhibit A.

30 Games Later: Readjusting Expectations

Last season, after thirty games, the following teams were leading baseball's six divisions:

AL East: Baltimore and Tampa Bay (tied)

AL Central: Cleveland

AL West: Texas

NL East: Washington

NL Central: St. Louis

NL West: Los Angeles

Only one of those teams would actually go on to win their division -- Washington. In fact, the Rays, Indians, and Dodgers missed the playoffs altogether. Meanwhile, the two eventual pennant-winners, Detroit and San Francisco, had combined to win 30 games and lose 29. So it's not like the standings in early May offer any predictive value for what they'll look like in late September.

But sometimes, the evidence provided by the season's first thirty games is enough to reevaluate what we thought we knew during the winter months. Sometimes, stubbornly sticking to obsolete perceptions of teams is counter-productive. At this time last year, the Athletics were surprisingly 16-14 and the Orioles, at 19-11, were even better; both were expected to fall back into the last place slots that had been reserved for them, but they never did. On the other end of the spectrum, the Angels were 13-18 and the Red Sox were 12-17; both were expected to snap out of their funks and contend for the World Series, but they never did. So yes, it might be early to totally re-calibrate expectations -- still, that doesn't mean that several important trends haven't already started to reveal themselves.

1. The Blue Jays are somewhere between 'Train Wreck' and 'Dumpster Fire' status. On paper, this was the best team in the AL East, maybe the best team in the league. A rotation headed by a pair of aces; a lineup anchored by a pair of elite power hitters; a solid cache of depth. There weren't many holes on the roster.

Just a month into the season, the Blue Jays are not only stuck with a dismal 11-21 record, and not only are they in last place -- they're also 9.5 games out of first. NINE POINT FIVE. Not even the Marlins are that far out of first, and the Marlins are intentionally trying to lose baseball games. No team has gotten worse production out of the #5-hole in the lineup than Toronto, thanks to inconsistency from Melky Cabrera, Adam Lind, and Colby Rasmus. R.A. Dickey's ERA is 5.36; Josh Johnson's is 6.36; Mark Buehrle's is 6.43. Jose Reyes, this team's best player in the early going, will be on the disabled list for another couple of months. In the meantime, the role of shortstop will be played by something called a "Munenori Kawasaki."  Add it all up, and you get a team that's been outscored by a total of 47 runs, second-worst in baseball ahead of only the Astros.

Now: are the Blue Jays really this bad? Of course not. The pitching will improve just because there's nowhere to go but up. Jays hitters have actually been the unluckiest in baseball as a group; random chance will be friendlier to them. But this struggling squad faces the same problem that the Angels did last year: all of these losses are permanently banked. There's no changing that 11-21 record. They're already looking at a ten-game deficit in the division. Just to get to 90 wins, they have to go 80-50 the rest of the way. Is that impossible? No. Is it likely that this uninspiring group will play nearly-perfect baseball for the next five months, without Jose Reyes for half that time? Hardly. Especially not in their hyper-competitive division. As stunning and unfortunate as this is, the Blue Jays are pretty much dead in the water already. Who saw that coming?

2. The Orioles are for real, once again. It was reasonable to expect Baltimore to regress from last year, because last year was either an unrepeatable feat of remarkable overachievement or the product of Buck Showalter's dark magic. Instead, the opposite is true: this team is better now than it was a year ago.

The pitching is still average at best, so the Orioles have just decided to outscore everybody with a suddenly-unrelenting offense. Much of it is fueled by the usual suspects -- Adam Jones and Matt Wieters and such. But there are three others who have helped transform this team into a contender. One is Chris Davis, who's successfully swapped bodies with Josh Hamilton to get from failed prospect to elite slugger (hitting .327/.425/.673 will do quite nicely, thank you very much). The second is Nate McLouth, whose career was once as dead as the 2013 Blue Jays; yet he's now the leadoff hitter for this offense against right-handers. Somehow he's hitting .313/.411/.490 with nine steals and, most amazingly, 16 walks against just 10 strikeouts.

The third is the most important, and also one of the most overlooked young superstars in baseball. Manny Machado has been largely overshadowed by the Trout-and-Harper Mania. But this guy joined the Orioles in the middle of their playoff push last summer without a single game of Triple-A experience, having to transition from his natural position of shortstop over to third base in order to accommodate J.J. Hardy. Now he's a 20-year-old shortstop playing Gold Glove defense at third while hitting .311/.350/.508 and holding down the #2-slot in the Orioles order. He's a huge reason why Baltimore is a serious contender for the AL East title.

3. The Los Angeles teams have proven that money doesn't buy happiness. Over the past year or two, the Angels and the Dodgers have spent hundreds of millions of dollars to import superstars to Southern California -- from Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, and C.J. Wilson to Zack Greinke, Carl Crawford, and Adrian Gonzalez. It hasn't exactly paid off yet. Both are in fourth place, with a lot of concerns up and down their rosters.

For the Dodgers, the problem is offense. With Hanley Ramirez injured, the non-first-base positions are being held down by a sad troupe of deeply flawed guys who might be good if you rolled them all up into one player: Juan Uribe, Mark Ellis, Jerry Hairston, Justin Sellers, Luis Cruz, and Dee Gordon. Those awful bats are rendering the bottom half of the Dodgers lineup useless. To wit: their current #5 hitter A.J. Ellis has only scored five runs all year despite his excellent .390 on-base-percentage. And two of those runs came from his own homers. That's how ugly this offense is right now, especially with Matt Kemp struggling (.342 slugging percentage ... yowza). Thank goodness Carl Crawford is enjoying a fantastic bounceback season (.311/.383/.495), or else things could be even worse.

At least the Dodgers have Clayton Kershaw starting every fifth day. The other L.A. team is in even worse shape. Thought to be a World Series contender before the season started, it's clear that the Angels don't have the pitching to fulfill that potential, and their hitting might not be good enough to even get them to the playoffs in the first place. Over the past calendar year, Josh Hamilton has hit .253/.321/.494, or essentially 156 games of Delmon Young-like production. He's a major reason why the Angels only rank 15th in the majors in runs scored, which isn't good enough when their pitching staff ranks 28th in ERA. Last year, the Angels fought their way back into contention by calling up Mike Trout and trading for Zack Greinke. Neither of those things are happening this time around. In a division with the Rangers and Athletics, competing with the entire AL East for a wild card spot, the Angels are in a bad place right now and it wouldn't be a shock if manager Mike Scioscia gets fired.

4. The Yankees might be better than we thought. A month ago, had you told someone that the Yankees starting lineup in early May would include Jayson Nix, Eduardo Nunez, Chris Stewart, Lyle Overbay, and Vernon Wells, that person would have guaranteed that the Yankees would be a last-place team. That would have been a smart, rational guess.

Yet for some reason, that person also would have been wrong. The Yankees have won 18 of their first 30 games and sit tied for second place in the AL East. And this is with a combined zero at-bats from Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira, and Curtis Granderson, as well as injuries to Kevin Youkilis and Francisco Cervelli. If an injury to Francisco Cervelli deals a harsh blow to your lineup, then you know the offense is desperately seeking help.

Good pitching has basically driven New York's early success, but it's three scrap-heap pickups that have kept the lineup afloat despite the injuries. Against left-handers, Vernon Wells is hitting .333/.383/.595. Against right-handers, Lyle Overbay is hitting .328/.377/.656 and Travis Hafner is hitting .317/.414/.617. They've all suffered against same-handed pitchers, which is a problem because they've all been forced into everyday duty by other injuries. But the Yankees would be absolutely nowhere without these three, who have unexpectedly pummeled whenever they've had the platoon advantage. Oh, and that Robinson Cano fellow has a .972 OPS. He might be an okay player someday.

The Yankees still can't count on making the playoffs, not with all their aging-and-injury question marks. But given the sorry state of their lineup, they could've easily had a Blue Jays-style start to the season and doomed themselves from the beginning. Instead, they've banked 18 wins when their roster was at its weakest. And the impending returns of Granderson, Teixeira, and Youkilis should help relegate the Wells/Overbay/Hafner trio to platoon duty, where they've thrived. This team has kept itself alive, an admirable feat in its own right.

5. The St. Louis Cardinals could be the best team in baseball. This is certainly not something anyone would have predicted before the season. The Cardinals are 20-11, in first place in the Central Division with the second-best run differential in baseball. Carlos Beltran, Matt Holliday, and Yadier Molina remain a devastatingly effective trio in the heart of that lineup. Most impressively, the team ranks 6th in runs scored and 2nd in ERA across baseball, a testament to its balance.

The key to this early success has been unexpectedly dominant starting pitching. The Cardinals' five starters have combined to pitch to a crazy 2.25 ERA over 192 innings, which would seem to be several rungs above "solid." Jake Westbrook leads the league in ERA at 1.07; heralded rookie Shelby Miller is at 1.96 while striking out over a batter per inning; Adam Wainwright has announced his return to ace-dom by striking out 48 batters and walking just three all season.

On top of all that: the team has skillfully handled adversity in the bullpen, too. Incumbent closer Jason Motte is headed for Tommy John surgery, and his first replacement, Mitchell Boggs, was a disaster. The answer? Previously-unknown Edward Mujica has taken over the role with surprising ease. A year ago he was a middle reliever toiling away for the Marlins; now he's converted eight save opportunities for the team with the best record in the National League. Without Motte, or Chris Carpenter, or Albert Pujols, St. Louis is yet again a World Series contender. These Cardinals seem to know what they're doing.

Maybe Come Up With a New Angle?

Joe Posnanski is a fairly prominent sports writer who, like many other sports writers at the moment, has written a lengthy piece on the end of the Yankees' season. Except that it's not a eulogy on the Yankees' season; it pronounces the end of the Yankees dynasty (specifically, the Jeter Era). It includes hyperbolic gems like:

"The Yankees still have money, and they still have talent, and they still have history. Derek Jeter will come back, so will some other stars, and others will be found. I have little doubt that the Yankees can still win. But they will never be the same. Rome has fallen."

This is what I don't get. The Yankees have won one championship in the last decade. That isn't a dynasty. That isn't Rome. Rome won the World Series every year, because they were Rome and that was the deal. There's no Rome in baseball. Only one team has won multiple championships in the last decade (Red Sox, with two). That's not "Roman Empire." That's "Congress of Vienna." Balance of power. Parity. I know that it's fun pretending the Yankees still have a "dynasty" so that we can pronounce it dead every year, but there's no such thing as a postseason dynasty in baseball anymore. The playoffs are too random.

"The Yankees aren't the Yankees anymore."

...no, by definition, they kind of are.

"Oh, they might win again. They might, like the Six Million Dollar Man, rebuild faster, stronger and more powerful. They have the money. They have the clout. But this is the point: It won't be this Yankees team."

...right, because this Yankees team...was just...eliminated? So, like, it physically can't be this Yankees team. Glad we're clear on how "sports" works.

"But it wasn't just a team going into a slump. It is a team at war with itself."

I love hyperbole just as much as the next cat but sheesh come on.

"I'm thinking the best the Yankees can hope for is that the U.S. Government will declare them too big to fail."

Hahahaha! Get it?! Financial pun! High-five!

"And now, for the first time in almost two decades, the New York Yankees have no idea what happens next. Just like the rest of us."

Here's the problem: I've read this article before, or some variant of it, every year. Every October that doesn't end in a Steinbrenner holding up the World Series trophy inevitably results in sportswriters pronouncing the Yankee dynasty dead, pining for the old days of Posada and Williams and Brosius and O'Neill and Torre. I'm tired of reading it. Either the Yankees dynasty IS gone, in which case there shouldn't be any more words wasted on the subject, or it's reborn every April only to die every October, which makes it a seasonal dynasty and I don't really know how those work.

Anyway: Posnanski's article gets written every single year, just with the words rearranged in a different order. The following excerpt is from an article in the New York Daily News on October 6, 2002:

Yankee Year Goes To Heck, Dynasty Reaches End Of Road As Angels Rejoice
-Anthony McCarron
"Some Yankees seemed stunned at the team's three-games-to-one loss in the AL division series. But others knew that the Yankees had been outhit, outfielded and, most importantly, outpitched in making their earliest playoff departure since 1997, the last year they didn't reach the World Series...This is certainly not the ending George Steinbrenner had envisioned when he and his lieutenants put together a team and paid $140 million for it."

Then the following year, October 26 2003, Los Angeles Times:

The Fish That Ate New York
-Bill Shaikin
"Beckett's five-hit shutout gives the Marlins a 2-0 Game 6 victory for their second title in seven years and may signal end of an aging Yankee dynasty...The Yankee Stadium ghosts are out of business."

Two years later, October 12 2005, New York Times:

Angels kill Yankees softly in playoff decider
-Tyler Kepner
"The Yankees spoiled themselves, their fans and their principal owner by winning four championships in five seasons through 2000. But the glory years are gone, fading deeper into memory each fall. Now, they have gone five years without one...All of the millions for all of the mercenaries could not wake the dynasty from the dead."

Two years after that, October 8 2007, ESPN.com:

Consider the Yankees dynasty officially over
-Howard Bryant
"The old dynasty finally fell, and for good Monday night in the Bronx...The dynasty is over in New York, giving way to age and time, and nothing could revive it...The dismantling of the dynasty will surely follow, and finally, but not without some degree of melancholy, the old building faces the wrecking ball...And perhaps it is time, for all dynasties ultimately crumble and decay, and losing to the Indians seemed as much a disappointment for the Yankees as it was the recognition that they have witnessed the end of something larger, something grander...In New York, even a dynasty needs to be told when to say goodbye."

A year later, September 24 2008, New York Daily News:

Dynasty's slow demise bottoms out with Yankees' September swan song
-Mike Lupica
"It had to happen eventually and now it has, because this Yankee team, even wounded, did not measure up in so many ways...Another Yankee team to go in with the first-round losers of the last three years...Alex Rodriguez, for all his gaudy numbers, did not have a good season, did not ever carry the team, was a bigger stick for the tabloids than he was for Girardi...Robinson Cano played an entire season looking as if his head were up in the clouds. Or somewhere. The Yankees say they don't want to move him. Think about something: Just think about how everything looks in the AL East if the Yankees had Dustin Pedroia playing second for them this season instead of Cano."

(side note: it's interesting that, four years later, the scapegoats are still the same: A-Rod (choker) and Cano (lazy) aren't True Yankees because they aren't as gritty and scrappy and gutsy as small white guys like Dustin Pedroia or Derek Jeter).

So Joe Posnanski isn't writing anything new. He's recycling the same old hackneyed garbage. How many times will the "Dynasty" have to die before we can stop hearing about it? I'm afraid of the answer.

Some Solid Journalism

Trade speculation surrounding Alex Rodriguez has begun to pick up in the wake of his playoff benchings, and Bob Nightengale of USA Today is getting in on the action. In a Thursday article, Nightengale speculates that A-Rod is likely to be traded by the Yankees this offseason. He includes this paragraph of deliciously twisted writing built around a quote from Yankees General Manger Brian Cashman:

"I've had no discussions whatsoever with the Florida Marlins,'' Cashman said, but then again, didn't deny talks with the Miami Marlins.

Sure, Cashman, you denied discussions with Florida, but did you explicitly deny talks with Miami? No! Nice try! You can't fool us! THE TRADE IS INEVITABLE!

Not sure if this is irresponsible rumor-mongering or an attempt at a terrible joke, but either way it's pretty awful.

One of the Many Benefits of Being Justin Verlander

It's fairly common practice for baseball's elite starting pitchers to get more favorable ball/strike calls from umpires. This is especially true for Justin Verlander, the best pitcher in baseball. As you might imagine, Justin Verlander is already a very good pitcher without getting the benefit of the doubt from umpires, because he is Justin Verlander, someone who has won the Most Valuable Player Award as a pitcher, which is a very difficult thing to do. So when Justin Verlander does get a favorable strike zone from the umpire--regardless of whether or not he needs it--well, there's not much you can do as a hitter except go through the formalities of your official at-bat and forget about acquainting yourself with first base.

On Tuesday night, Verlander carried his Detroit Tigers to a 3-0 series lead on the New York Yankees by pitching into the ninth inning and only allowing three hits and one run. He also did not walk anybody. This is an impressive feat, because even though the Yankee are currently mired in an epic offensive slump, they are still the Yankees, and they tend to take a lot of walks regardless of other factors. Below is the strike zone Verlander got from the home plate umpire, depicted from the catcher's perspective; the red squares are called strikes, green squares are balls. Circled are the pitches that were called strikes by the umpire, but were in reality, as we can see, out of the strike zone:

Seven of the nine Yankees facing Verlander were batting left-handed, and thus were standing on the right-hand side of the above image. On top of having to contend with Justin Verlander, which is difficult enough on its own, they had to contend with a home plate umpire who consistently called pitches several inches off the outside part of the plate as strikes. That is, as they say, a tall order. Below is an example of how this challenge manifested itself: a seventh-inning at-bat between Verlander and Raul Ibanez, the latter of whom represented the tying run for the Yankees with two outs:

The first pitch, as the image shows, was some sort of breaking pitch in the dirt that Ibanez laid off of, making the count 1-0. Ibanez could then expect to be thrown a fastball in the zone--a potentially tasty pitch for a dead-red fastball hitter like Ibanez. Verlander did throw a fastball, but at this point he knew he did not have to actually throw it as a strike for it to be called a strike. He threw two pitches Ibanez couldn't do anything with, a fastball and a curveball off the plate, and both are called as strikes. The count is suddenly 1-2 even though Ibanez would see it as 3-0. Ibanez would ground out weakly to first to end the inning.

Did the starter opposite Verlander, Phil Hughes, reap the same benefits of an expanded strike zone? Not really. In fact, the opposite. Below is Hughes' strike zone. The circled green dots are pitches thrown by Hughes that were within the strike zone, but were nevertheless called as balls by the umpire:

So based on this, five of Hughes' 61 pitches (8%) were balls that should have been called strikes. Verlander was not squeezed in the same way: another brief skim of his strike zone above shows that just one of his 132 pitches (0.7%) was a ball that should have been a strike. Conversely, 10 of Verlander's pitches that were off the plate were called strikes anyway. Not once did Hughes get a call like that in his favor.

While Justin Verlander was getting called strikes several inches off the edge of the plate, Phil Hughes threw one pitch almost down the middle of the strike zone that was called a ball. This is not to say that Verlander is actually a worse pitcher than we think, or that Hughes is a better pitcher than we think. This is just to say that the home plate umpire can sometimes make the job a little easier for the Justin Verlanders of the world, an advantage they hardly even need, and the home plate umpire can sometimes make the job a little tougher for the Phil Hugheses of the world, a disadvantage they hardly they can afford.

How They Did It: The 2012 New York Yankees

If there was ever a year where the Yankees seemed vulnerable, it was 2012. Not only did an old team get one year older, they lost two of their key young players (Brett Gardner and Michael Pineda) for the season and saw numerous others fall to injury, including the great Mariano Rivera. But at the end of the season, the Yankees ended up right where they always expect to be: at the top of the AL East, and playing in the ALCS for a shot at another World Series title. What were the keys to surviving the adversity?

1. A Home-Run-Hitting Offense: Hitting home runs is relatively easy to do at Yankee Stadium, and that's how the home team built their offense. Only Robinson Cano and Derek Jeter hit for a high average but amazingly, ten different Yankees hit at least 14 home runs. They were paced by Curtis Granderson's 43, and he now has the most home runs in baseball over the past two seasons. This Yankees hit the most home runs in the majors and therefore scored the second-most runs.

2. Strong Starting Pitching: Though it wasn't healthy for much of the season, the Yankees had one of their best starting rotations in recent memory. C.C. Sabathia's "down" year featured 200 innings, a 3.38 ERA, and the best strikeout-to-walk ratio in the AL. Hiroki Kuroda's transition from the NL West to Yankee Stadium went seamlessly (a 3.32 ERA in 219.2 innings). Andy Pettitte only threw 75 innings, but they were excellent and he got healthy in time for the stretch run. And Phil Hughes, independent of the unfair expectations heaped upon him, had the best season of his career. Despite pitching in a bandbox, these four starters were consistently excellent.

3. Depth: With their resources, the Yankees were able to cover for a lot of the injuries a veteran team tends to suffer. When longtime closer Mariano Rivera went down, Rafael Soriano stepped in to save 42 games with an ERA of 2.26. Andy Pettitte and C.C. Sabathia both spent time on the DL, but they were adequately filled in for by rookie David Phelps and veteran Freddy Garcia. When Alex Rodriguez broke his hand, Eric Chavez took over and put up a .281/.348/.496 line. The loss of Brett Gardner opened the door for Raul Ibanez, who slugged 19 home runs and enjoyed some ridiculously clutch moments. It also led to the midseason acquisition of Ichiro Suzuki, who hit .322 for his new team. All of these extra pieces helped the Yankees stay flexible through tough times.

4. Veterans: Teams that rely on contributions from young players can sometimes get ambushed by wild fluctuations in their performance, and not always for the better. On the other hand, the likes of Sabathia, Kuroda, Robinson Cano, Nick Swisher, Mark Teixeira, and Derek Jeter have been some of the most consistent and durable players in baseball over the last few years despite their ages (only Cano is under 30). Even the aging and much-ridiculed Alex Rodriguez was productive in the regular season: his OPS was just .008 points lower than Derek Jeter's. Funny how no one ever mentions that.

5. Strikeouts and Walks: Yankees hitters and pitchers controlled the strike zone perhaps better than any other team. Their pitchers had the second-best strikeout-to-walk ratio in baseball. Their hitters had the third-most walks in baseball but were in the bottom ten in strikeouts despite hitting for so much power. This was one of the more disciplined teams in the league that rarely gave up an at-bat easily.

When it comes to roster construction for the Yankees, obviously financial power is the biggest factor. The Yankees have had the highest payroll in baseball for a long time now. Their cornerstone players (ace, first baseman, third baseman, closer) all left small-market teams as free agents to sign massive free agent contracts in New York.

A high payroll not only helps to bring in elite free agents; it also keeps homegrown stars around for their whole careers. The Yankees can afford to pay the likes of Derek Jeter, Andy Pettitte, and Mariano Rivera whatever they agree upon to keep playing for New York. They were able to give the next star in line, Robinson Cano, a nice contract at a young age and they have the money to keep him around long-term, too.

However, the Yankees front office has also made acquisitions that any other team could have made, regardless of resources. Many were of the buy-low variety, like trades for Nick Swisher and Curtis Granderson after they each had down seasons; both have improved in New York. The Yankees also grabbed Russell Martin off the scrap heap and signed veterans that few wanted like Raul Ibanez, Eric Chavez, and Andruw Jones, all of them dirt-cheap, and all have provided excellent value. And the Yankees were the ones who snagged Hiroki Kuroda on a bargain one-year deal, certainly a contract that other teams could have afforded. It's tempting to attribute New York's success solely to the financial advantage. But the teams has made some shrewd moves that had nothing to do with a $200 million payroll. That's been a big part of the strategy that won the Yankees three AL East titles--and a championship--in the last four seasons.

New York's Formula: Good starting pitching, a disciplined home-run-hitting offense, and a deep roster, achieved through a high payroll and buy-low acquisitions.

Oakland's Formula: Young pitching depth, dominant bullpen, and a platooning lineup built on speed, power, and defense, achieved through smart trades and a deep minor league system.

Detroit's Formula: Good starting pitching and an elite top of the lineup, achieved through the acquisition of elite players by any means.

San Francisco's Formula: Healthy starting pitching, dominant bullpen, and a lineup built for home-field advantage achieved through strong pitching development and the revitalization of declining veterans' careers.

Washington's Formula: Healthy and elite starting pitching, dominant bullpen, and balanced lineup achieved through homegrown talent and superb talent evaluation.

Cincinnati's Formula: Healthy starting pitching, dominant bullpen, and balanced lineup achieved through homegrown talent and low payroll.

Twitter Reacts To What Happened Last Night

Every once in a while, baseball has one of THOSE nights. Last year, it was Game 162, and the David Freese Game in the World Series. This year, it was last night. Because it is impossible to capture with words what happened in the wee hours of Wednesday night and Thursday morning, here are some select real-time reactions from Twitter that do a much better job of showcasing raw emotion and shock than postgame recaps or SportsCenter segments.

First: Orioles-Yankees, Game 3, around midnight.

Just keep it tied until Raul bats again.
— Mike Axisa (@mikeaxisa) October 11, 2012

RAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL
— Mike Axisa (@mikeaxisa) October 11, 2012

Oh my God.
— David Cameron (@DCameronFG) October 11, 2012

RAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAUL
— Mike Axisa (@mikeaxisa) October 11, 2012

Move over David Freese.
— David Cameron (@DCameronFG) October 11, 2012

RAUAHAHAHAHA
— Mike Axisa (@mikeaxisa) October 11, 2012

I just...Raul Ibanez...I...what?...Raul Ibanez.
— Paul Swydan (@Swydan) October 11, 2012

I am dead. I just died.
— Craig Calcaterra (@craigcalcaterra) October 11, 2012

+.827 WPA. Raul Ibanez just had the fifth biggest playoff game in baseball history. With two at-bats.
— Mike Axisa (@mikeaxisa) October 11, 2012

I hate everything, but especially Raul Ibanez
— Jonathan Bernhardt (@jonbernhardt) October 11, 2012

So cool! #Raul
— Phil Hughes (@PhilHughes65) October 11, 2012

The best part is Raul just trotting to first, no smile or anything, like "Yeah, I know, what of it?"
— Bloggie McBlogger (@yagottagotomo) October 11, 2012

Raul Ibanez hit .197 with no homers against lefthanders in the regular season.
— Adam Ronis (@AdamRonis) October 11, 2012

Before 5 minutes ago, Raul Ibanez hasn't hit a HR off a lefty since July 26, 2011. And even that one was off Barry Zito..
— Bret Sayre (@dynastyguru) October 11, 2012

Baseball is so weird.
— Productive Outs (@ProductiveOuts) October 11, 2012

Ibanez becomes 1st player in postseason history w/2 HR in a game he didn't start
— Alex Speier (@alexspeier) October 11, 2012

Orioles 0-3 in extra innings against the Yankees, 16-0 in extra innings against everyone else
— Jeff Sullivan (@LookoutLanding) October 11, 2012

So the Yanks have 2 wins all year when trailing after 7, and in both, Ibanez had both the game-tying AND game-winning hits.
— Tristan H. Cockcroft (@SultanofStat) October 11, 2012

Kuroda's best quotation of the year. Said Ibanez's performance seemed like it was something out of "a cartoon."
— Jack Curry (@JackCurryYES) October 11, 2012

Nick Swisher could be heard from the shower yelling "EXCITEMENT OVERLOADDDDD!!!!"
— Daniel Barbarisi (@DanBarbarisi) October 11, 2012

Orioles: "Seriously? Raul Ibanez? That doesn't make any sen-" /look in mirror "oh right"
— Jeff Sullivan (@LookoutLanding) October 11, 2012

One to ring to Raul them all.
— Matt Sussman (@suss2hyphens) October 11, 2012

Second: Tigers-Athletics, Game 4, around 1 A.M.

Can the A's pinch-hit Raul Ibanez here? Not totally sure of how baseball rules work.
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) October 11, 2012

! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
— King Kaufman (@king_kaufman) October 11, 2012

AND THERE WILL BE A GAME FIVE
— The Outside Corner (@Outside_Corner) October 11, 2012

SWEEEEEET MOTHER OF GOD
— Jason Wojciechowski (@jlwoj) October 11, 2012

Coco Crisp! Redemption!
— Daniel Moroz (@CamdenCrazies) October 11, 2012

Bob Melvin > Philip Seymour Hoffman
— SportsPickle (@sportspickle) October 11, 2012

joke's on you guys, Valverde still has a dance for this
— Jeff Sullivan (@LookoutLanding) October 11, 2012

The American League is batting 1.000 for walk-offs tonight.
— Mike Baumann (@MJ_Baumann) October 11, 2012

God I love this game.
— Mike Axisa (@mikeaxisa) October 11, 2012

That was fun. Anyone know if there's a game tomorrow? <checks schedule> HELL YEAH
— Rany Jazayerli (@jazayerli) October 11, 2012

Four more games on Thursday, but they'll have to work hard to top this.

Great Moments in Hasty Internet Publishing

My apologies, ESPN.com, but what exactly did Curtis Granderson hit a pair of?

'Baseball Tonight': On ESPN2, 1 a.m. ET

• NYY5
• BOS4

• F
• Recap

Lowering The Boom

Behind Curtis Granderson's pair of homets, the Yankees held onto their lead.Hot Button »Jeter hurt »Olney   ESPN NY » ESPN Boston »

David Butler II/US Presswire
I'ms

Some Light Jeter Worship

Some satirical headlines are funny. Others are hilarious...until you realize that they're not satirical at all, and are actually meant to be taken seriously, at which point they immediately stop being funny and cause the reader to question the author's sanity. One such headline, courtesy of Barry Bloom, can be found right now on MLB.com:

Jeter deserving of serious MVP consideration

Hahahahaha oh wait--he's serious. Um. Go on...

NEW YORK -- It may be a little early to even begin the conversation, but if the regular season ends for the Yankees the way it's transpiring right now, Derek Jeter should be given heavy consideration by voting members of the Baseball Writers' Association of America as Most Valuable Player of the American League.

Jeter, the Yankees' All-Star shortstop and captain, is having a great season on the field. Coupled with his off-field leadership, he embodies the spirit of that award. Jeter's work ethic and day-to-day play not only make him the MVP of a team that is currently running away with the AL East, but the MVP of the entire league.

Somewhere, Robinson Cano is reading this and thinking to himself, "What the hell, man?"

OPS Leaders, 2012 New York Yankees
Robinson Cano: .957
Curtis Granderson: .864
Andruw Jones: .843
Mark Teixeira: .822
Nick Swisher: .819
Eric Chavez: .816
Alex Rodriguez: .789
Derek Jeter: .767
Raul Ibanez: .756
Russell Martin: .651

I'm pretty sure that you have to be the MVP of your own team before you can be considered for MVP of the league. And based on the above chart (verrrry complex stuff, mind you), Derek Jeter might be the fourth- or fifth-most dangerous hitter on any given day in the Yankees lineup. And it's not like he's saving runs on defense either.

"All the things he's done for the Yankees over the years he's doing this year, for sure," said Angels manager Mike Scioscia, voicing an objective opinion from the opposing dugout before his club lost a 5-3 decision on Saturday. "There's obviously an incredible leadership he brings in the things he does day in and day out. His numbers speak for themselves. He's a Hall of Fame player."

Well then, I guess that renders any further argument moot, considering Mike Scioscia chooses the American League MVP every year.

Wait, that doesn't sound right.

To be sure, Scioscia has his own pair of highly regarded candidates in outfielder Mark Trumbo and Mike Trout. The Rangers' Josh Hamilton and Detroit's Miguel Cabrera also have to be near the top of any list.

In other words: "To be sure, there are tons of players out there having more MVP-like seasons than Derek Jeter, but I don't really care about them because they're not Derek Jeter."

But Jeter sets the tone in the Yankees' clubhouse, and he's the table-setter at the top of the lineup, starting rallies the sluggers below him often finish. To that point, Jeter is hitting .390 with a .405 on-base percentage and a 1.015 OPS when he leads off innings this season. On two occasions in the first two games of this high-pressure series against the Angels at Yankee Stadium, Jeter opened an inning with the Yankees trailing.

On Friday night he sparked a key eighth-inning, four-run rally with a double, later scoring on Mark Teixeira's tying three-run homer. The Yanks won that game, 6-5. On Saturday, with the Angels already leading, 2-0, heading into the bottom of the first, Jeter led off by beating out an infield single. Robinson Cano knocked him in with a two-run homer.

Those two paragraphs boiled down into a simple chart:

The Main Reasons Why Derek Jeter Should Be The MVP, According to Barry Bloom:
1. He's good at setting things (tone, tables, etc.)
2. This must be doubly-true because it just happened on BOTH Thursday AND Friday
3. He scores when Mark Teixeira and Robinson Cano hit home runs (underrated skill)

...The MVP award would not only be acknowledgement for a job well done this season, but the culmination of a career in which the Yankees have won five World Series, seven AL pennants and been to the playoffs every year except one since 1995. Along the way, Jeter is a .313 lifetime hitter with a .382 on-base percentage and .830 OPS. But in his first 17 seasons, he's only been as high as second in the MVP voting once, and third twice.

This season ought to be his time to finish No. 1.

One last time, just for emphasis:

Derek Jeter:
310/.354/.413, .767 OPS, 7 HRs, 25 RBIs, Poor Defense

That One Dude Named Robinson Lucky Enough To Play Adjacent To Derek Jeter's Aura:
.315/.374/.582, .957 OPS, 21 HRs, 54 RBIs, Good Defense

Why is this even a discussion?

The Bobby Valentine's Day Massacre

The Red Sox continue to redefine just exactly where 'rock bottom' is. Right when you think things can't possibly get any worse--they do. And then some.

Just 14 games in, Bobby Valentine is already
persona non grata in Red Sox Nation.

Boston's epic loss to the Yankees on April 21st, 2012 (deemed the 'Bobby Valentine's Day Massacre' on Twitter) is the perfect example. The Red Sox jumped all over an ineffective Freddy Garcia, chasing him from the game before he could get six outs. Between a few more runs off the Yankees' bullpen and an excellent start from homegrown fourth starter Felix Doubront, the Sox built up a 9-0 lead in the sixth inning. The game was over.

And then it wasn't. A solo home run by Mark Teixeira effectively ended Doubront's day. In the seventh inning, a Nick Swisher grand slam and a Teixeira three-run homer cut the deficit to one. And the Yankees pushed across seven more runs in the eighth when Swisher, Teixeira, and Russell Martin each had 2-RBI doubles and Mike Aviles simply fell down on a Derek Jeter ground ball (epitomizing Boston's disastrous day). Over this stretch, 18 of 21 Yankees reached base (for an .857 OBP). The final was 15-9. The Win Expectancy Chart, depicting the odds of victory for each side as the game progressed, looked like this:

Thanks to a bunch of factors, Saturday's $175 million team featured an outfield of Darnell McDonald, Cody Ross, and Ryan Sweeney, two pinch-hitters named Nate Spears and Nick Punto, and a bullpen that sent out Vincente Padilla, Matt Albers, Franklin Morales, Alfredo Aceves, Justin Thomas, and Junichi Tazawa. Between Jacoby Ellsbury, Carl Crawford, Andrew Bailey, John Lackey, and Daisuke Matsuzaka, the Sox have over $60 million sitting on the DL, totaling more than the entire payrolls of a half-dozen other teams. All of this lies in stark contrast to the Yankees, who countered the injury to their left fielder by bringing Andruw Jones, Raul Ibanez, and Eduardo Nunez off the bench, and whose bullpen held the Sox scoreless over the final four innings even when their two best relievers were unavailable.

Theo Epstein and Terry Francona:
"Wow, didn't we used to win with this team??"

This has been business as usual for the Red Sox since the end of last year. Actually, their troubles can be precisely traced back to another Fenway series against the Yankees, this one in late August of 2011. They entered that series 82-52, in first place in the AL East. But in the deciding contest of that three-game set, Russell Martin hit a 2-RBI double off of Daniel Bard in the 7th inning that eventually won the Yankees the game.

Ever since that loss, the Red Sox have won exactly one series. Their record over that period is 11-28. They've said goodbye to core pieces of their previous identity: Theo Epstein, Terry Francona, Jonathan Papelbon, Jason Varitek, Tim Wakefield, Marco Scutaro, and J.D. Drew. Their staff's 2012 ERA is 6.10, easily the worst in baseball. Imported closer Andrew Bailey is out past the All-Star break. Imported setup man Mark Melancon is in Pawtucket, and based on how they're hitting, Kevin Youkilis and Jarrod Saltalamacchia should be there too. GM Ben Cherington just acquired Marlon Byrd from Theo Epstein's Cubs; Byrd is the owner of a .070 batting average this year. Manager Bobby Valentine is being avidly booed. The 100th anniversary of Fenway was spoiled by a New York home run barrage. And Boston can't even call Saturday's 15-9 loss the worst of the week, thanks to an 18-3 beatdown at the hands of the Texas Rangers on Tuesday.

So even though it's been said countless times over the past few months, it's being said again: things can't possibly get any worse. For the sanity of Red Sox Nation, the Bobby Valentine's Day Massacre must finally and mercifully represent rock bottom for this tortured team. On Sunday, they'll try to salvage the final game of this Yankees series with Daniel Bard facing off against C.C. Sabathia. A win or a loss won't decide Boston's season. But given how things have been going lately, it sure seems like the Sox need something--anything--to grab onto for dear life.

Well...You're Half Right

Interesting headline by Joel Sherman of the New York Post:

A-Rod HRs help, hurt Yankees

I may be wrong, but I'm prepared to say that all of A-Rod's home runs help the Yankees. This headline should read:

A-Rod HRs help Yankees, because they're home runs, which instantly credit one's team with runs, or "points," thus improving one's chance of victory

Actually, Sherman isn't blind to the rules of baseball; he's writing about the home run bonuses written into Rodriguez's contract, which will impede the Yankees' efforts to get under the $189 luxury cap in 2014.

Regardless: the Yankees want A-Rod to hit home runs. Because, like, he's already being paid buckets of money to do just that.

MLB Season Preview: New York Yankees

A series examining the upcoming baseball season begins with the AL East defending champions, the New York Yankees, who used the offseason to improve upon a roster that won 97 games last year.

A-Rod can still hit with the best of them,
when his body allows him to.

Offense: New York returns virtually the same lineup that scored the second-most runs in the majors in 2011. Age is the biggest enemy: Derek Jeter is 37, Alex Rodriguez is 36, and Raul Ibanez and Andruw Jones will be DH-ing. Fortunately the Yankees aren't relying on those guys for huge offensive numbers, as Curtis Granderson and Robinson Cano are the centerpieces of the lineup. Cano in particular could have an MVP-caliber season hitting in the 3-hole. Much of the offense's upside rests in Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira. A-Rod played in only 99 games last season, but enters the year healthy after an experimental knee procedure. Teixeira has a good chance to bounce back from last year's .248 batting average while continuing to provide excellent power. In the nine-hole, Brett Gardner could lead the A.L. in steals if he gets consistent at-bats. And after years of being a slow, plodding lineup, these Yankees are actually an above-average defensive and baserunning team.

Bud Selig is investigating claims that Sabathia's
arm is actually bionic; Mariano Rivera has been
targeted in the same inquiry.

Pitching: After several years of mediocre pitching depth, the Yankees have assembled an impressive group of arms. C.C. Sabathia leads the way as usual, along with sophomore Ivan Nova, who exceeded all expectations as a rookie. New imports Hiroki Kuroda (3.07 ERA in 2011) and Michael Pineda (3.74) replace the innings of A.J. Burnett and Bartolo Colon. And a healthy Phil Hughes is looking to forget last year's struggles. Yet one of those pitchers could be bumped from the rotation by May, as Andy Pettitte is slated to make his return to the big leagues. Meanwhile, Freddy Garcia provides veteran depth, if he's not traded, and there are solid options at Triple-A if something goes terribly wrong. The bullpen is one of the strongest units in baseball, led by the shutdown late-inning trio of Mariano Rivera, David Robertson, and Rafael Soriano. Joba Chamberlain probably won't make an appearance this season following Tommy John surgery and a nasty ankle injury, but David Aardsma will make his Yankees debut by midseason. Hughes might also get bumped into the bullpen by Pettitte's return, but he really should be starting full-time.

If Michael Pineda doesn't perform in New York, he will
forever be referred to as "Not Jesus Montero."

Breakout Candidates: Since the roster is laden with established veterans, there aren't many young Yankees primed for a breakout season. The obvious name is Michael Pineda--he may not immediately become the ace he's expected to be, but he offers huge potential with his imposing frame and powerful arsenal. The likelier candidate might actually be Phil Hughes, who is still only 25 (it's true, I swear) and just a year removed from winning 18 games. He's enjoying an excellent spring, now healthy and in shape following a nightmarish 2011 season, and could take a big step forward. Another option is Ivan Nova. He got quite lucky last season, but pitched like an ace down the stretch with a revamped slider and could experience further growth. In the lineup, the only real candidate is Brett Gardner--if he develops any kind of consistent offensive game to pair with his elite defense and baserunning, he could become one of baseball's best all-around players.

3 Key Questions: Will the veterans--A-Rod, Jeter, Rivera, Pettitte, Ibanez--stay healthy? How will Pineda and Kuroda adjust from friendlier divisions and ballparks? And which pitcher will step up to become the #2 starter behind Sabathia?

Best Case Scenario: A-Rod and Texeira hit like it's 2005, Robbie Cano wins the MVP, and the Yankees ride Sabathia to a world championship; Andy Pettitte retires for good after getting the win in Game 7.

Worst Case Scenario: Kuroda and Pineda get bludgeoned in the AL East, Hughes and Nova regress, an aging roster gets hit with injuries, and the Yankees miss the playoffs in a cutthroat division.

Predicted Finish: The Yankees have the balance and depth to finish first in the AL East and make a deep playoff run.