One of the many quirks of baseball is how little a manager can do to help his team win games. Compared to a sport like football, where coaching is everything, baseball managers don't offer much positive value. Take Joe Maddon off the Rays and they're still a good team; put him on the Padres and they're still a bad team. A manager's most important functions are filling out a lineup card and making pitching changes; the success of those 'strategic' moves are mostly decided by the personnel at his disposal, which a manager does not control. Unless he's batting Delmon Young leadoff, or using Freddy Garcia as an ace reliever, a manager's typical functions don't allow him the opportunity to really hurt the quality of their team.
That's why the collective failures of John Farrell, Don Mattingly, and Fredi Gonzalez on Monday night were so impressive. All three managed to make questionable strategic blunders in their Game 4 matchups, proving that managers really can have a negative impact on their teams -- if you try hard enough.
Mistake 1: John Farrell Gets What He Asked For
Up 2-0 in the best-of-three series, Red Sox manager John Farrell came tantalizingly close to finishing off the Rays in the ALDS on Monday. Game 3 was tied headed into the top of the eighth, and David Ortiz led off the inning with a walk. Farrell decided to pinch-run for Ortiz with Quintin Berry, removing Ortiz from the game. This wasn't a bad decision on its own -- Farrell was playing for the go-ahead run, and Berry is one of the best base-stealers around. In fact, he stole second (though possibly helped by a blown call).
After a groundout, intentional walk, and a strikeout, Stephen Drew was due up with two outs and runners on first and second. Jake McGee, a lefty, was on the mound. Drew has been miserable against lefties this season -- a .196 average and .246 OBP. Fortunately, Farrell had an option on his bench: Xander Bogaerts, one of the top young prospects in the game, a right-handed hitter who could pinch-hit for Drew and replace him at shortstop. But Farrell didn't use him. Drew popped out, ending the inning. Farrell gave up Ortiz for the rest of the game in a gamble to try and score the go-ahead run, but by letting Drew hit against a lefty, he compromised his chances of scoring that run. Why is Bogaerts on the postseason roster if Farrell isn't going to use him in that situation?
The strangeness of that decision was compounded by another one an inning later. The Rays had grabbed a 4-3 lead, so the Red Sox were down to their last three outs in the top of the ninth facing Rays closer Fernando Rodney. The inning began with a five-pitch walk to Will Middlebrooks and a single by Jacoby Ellsbury, putting the tying and go-ahead runs on base. Rodney's control was iffy -- six of his first seven pitches were balls. But then Shane Victorino laid down a bunt, moving the runners over to second and third. If John Farrell instructed Victorino to bunt, then it's absolutely fair to question his judgment.
Because Farrell had already removed his cleanup hitter Ortiz, Boston's chances of winning an extended extra inning game weren't good, especially since they were on the road. The Red Sox should have been trying to win the game in the ninth by scoring multiple runs in the inning. They were in a great situation to do just that, with two runners on, good speed on the bases, a shaky Rodney on the mound, and Shane Victorino and Dustin Pedroia due up. Instead, Farrell chose to give away Victorino's at-bat to play for one run. Even though Victorino isn't a double play risk; even though he's been awesome against right-handed pitching; even though Rodney hadn't yet proven he could actually throw a strike.
Victorino bunted the runners over and a Pedroia ground-out did get that tying run home. But the winning run was stranded when pinch-hitter Mike Carp (batting at the DH spot where Ortiz would have been, mind you) struck out. And the Rays won the game on Jose Lobaton's walk-off in the bottom of the inning.
John Farrell asked for one run. He got exactly one run. Unsurprisingly, he also got a loss.
Mistake 2: Don Mattingly's Bunt Fetish
There might not be any manager in baseball who likes to bunt more than Dodgers manager Don Mattingly. Hopefully, the 8th inning of Monday's Game 4 against the Atlanta Braves will teach him a lesson. (Spoiler: it won't.)
Entering the top of the eighth inning, things were looking pretty grim for the Dodgers. Sure, they were up 2-1 in the series, but they were also trailing by a run with six outs to go in Game 4 against a dynamite Braves bullpen. A loss would mean that the Dodgers had wasted a Clayton Kershaw start on short rest against notable zombie Freddy Garcia with a decisive Game 5 looming in Atlanta. Without a doubt, this was a dire situation.
Yasiel Puig provided a spark by leading off the bottom of the eighth with a double. Juan Uribe was due up next ... and Mattingly apparently asked him to bunt Puig over to third. Now, Juan Uribe is no Shane Victorino. He's not a particularly good hitter. But he's above average, which is more than you can say for the guys following Uribe in the lineup: Skip Schumaker and A.J. Ellis. Both are pretty bad hitters. Uribe was clearly the best chance the Dodgers had at scoring the tying run. And Mattingly wanted to throw away that chance to put the game in the hands of Skip Schumaker and A.J. Ellis. Bad idea.
Fortunately, Juan Uribe is a bad bunter. He failed to put the ball in play twice, taking the bunt off the table. And then he crushed a two-run homer, putting the Dodgers on top 4-3 and sending them to the NLCS.
See, John Farrell? Sometimes, when you let your players hit instead of sacrificing them to the God of Bunts, good things happen.
Mistake 3: Fredi Gonzalez Doesn't Budge
This was easily the least forgivable mistake of the three. Farrell and Mattingly's teams were both ahead in their respective series; Gonzalez's Braves were down 2-1, one loss away from the end of their season. His mistake had far more lasting consequences.
Gonzalez was on the other side of that dramatic Uribe home run. His team was up 3-2, needing six more outs to stave off elimination and force a Game 5 in Atlanta. He brought in setup man David Carpenter to pitch the eighth, not a poor decision considering how good he's been this season. But then Puig led off the inning with a double, and suddenly the tying run was on second and the go-ahead run was at the plate. And with the best short-stint pitcher in the world available to him in the bullpen, Fredi Gonzalez never budged from the dugout.
That's amazing if you think about it. The Braves were up a run in the eighth inning of a game they needed to win, and Craig Kimbrel didn't even face a single batter. Kimbrel is the best relief pitcher in baseball. Over the past two seasons combined, he has a 1.11 ERA with 214 strikeouts and just 66 hits allowed in 129.2 innings. David Carpenter is great, but Craig Kimbrel is better, because Craig Kimbrel is the best.
Still, Gonzalez stuck with Carpenter after the leadoff double to Puig. He's shown a willingness to bring in Kimbrel for a four-out save in the past (he did it in Game 2 of this series, in fact). But needing six outs, in an elimination game, with the tying run on second? In that scenario, Gonzalez refused to summon Kimbrel. To reiterate: had the season been on the line with four outs to go, Kimbrel would've been in the game. But with the season on the line with six outs to go, Kimbrel wasn't an option. That rigid stubbornness lost the Braves the game, as Uribe hit the game-winning two-run homer off Carpenter with Kimbrel watching helplessly from the bullpen.
We traditionally think of mistakes as sudden, unwise deviations from an expected course of action. This mistake wasn't that at all. It wasn't a mental lapse or a brain fart. Quite the opposite: Gonzalez actually adhered to the same bullpen routine he's always followed, the same bullpen routine that got him to the playoffs in the first place -- Carpenter in the eighth, Kimbrel in the ninth. And that right there was the problem. Compared to the regular season, the playoffs are a different beast. Elimination games are a completely different beast. Desperate situations require flexibility; they require creativity; they require the willingness to push your best players to their physical limits, like the Dodgers did by starting Clayton Kershaw on three days' rest. The conservative Fredi Gonzalez showed none of those qualities. Instead, all he had was The Plan. And when The Plan went awry, he was left with nothing.
Showing posts with label Atlanta Braves. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Atlanta Braves. Show all posts
Tuesday, October 8, 2013
Tuesday, April 16, 2013
Reminder: The Diamondbacks Did Something Really Stupid
If we've learned one thing from the first two weeks of the season, it's this: Justin Upton is most definitely a superstar.
In twelve games for the Braves, he's got 11 RBIs and 12 runs scored. He's already hit seven home runs (which leads the majors). His slugging percentage is an astronomical .891 -- exceeded only by The Great Chris Davis. His batting average is .348. He has as many three-hit games (3) as hitless games. Justin Upton is the biggest reason why the Braves have only lost one of their first twelve games and own the best record in baseball.
All of his contributions already add up to a Wins Above Replacement total of 1.3. There were a whopping 24 regular players in baseball last year who couldn't accumulate 1.3 WAR over the entire season, let alone 12 games. In other words, two weeks of 2013 Justin Upton have already been more valuable than Delmon Young's entire 2012 season, and the same goes for Kevin Youkilis, and Rickie Weeks, and Colby Rasmus. That's amazing. He's currently on pace for 17.5 WAR (which won't happen, because the single-season record for a position player is Babe Ruth at 14). But even if he finishes the season with half of that total -- say, 9 WAR -- that would be a hyper-elite season. Not a single player in baseball had 9 WAR last year, except for Mike Trout. As the best player on an excellent team, putting up ridiculous offensive numbers, Justin Upton would have to be considered the current frontrunner for the National League MVP Award.
That's not even the coolest thing about Justin Upton. The coolest thing about Justin Upton is that he's only 25 years old. It'll probably be years and years before he shows any sort of decline. In fact, since a player is thought to reach his peak at age 27, it's possible that the very best of Upton is yet to come -- a frightening concept for Atlanta's division rivals.
Do the Braves have to worry about their emerging superstar's contract situation? If this was the NFL, then absolutely. But this is baseball. Players can't demand a contract renegotiation. The Braves control Upton for the rest of 2013, all of 2014, and all of 2015. Those are his prime seasons -- ages 25, 26, and 27 -- the ones in which he'll likely provide the most value. There's no telling how much other teams would be willing to pay Upton for those years on the open market. The Braves, however, will pay him a grand total of just $38.5 million across all three seasons. In other words, that's just a third of what Josh Hamilton signed for during the offseason. And roughly half of what Nick Swisher signed for. Considering Upton's contract (team-friendly), his age (young), his current production (awesome), and his ceiling (maybe-even-more-awesome), the Braves have one of the best assets in all of baseball.
Yet just a few months ago, it was the Arizona Diamondbacks, not the Braves, who were in possession of Upton. They traded him to Atlanta in January for three non-elite prospects, a pitcher who might be a fourth or fifth starter someday, and one season of a solid-but-unspectacular third baseman named Martin Prado. Calling that a swindling would be an understatement. It would be far more accurate to say that the Braves raided the Diamondbacks' village, slaughtered their cattle, burned down their dwellings, stuffed Justin Upton into a burlap sack, and stole away into the night. The first two weeks of the season have taught us that Justin Upton is a tremendously talented baseball player, but they've also taught us that the Arizona Diamondbacks made an unforgivably dismal trade.
In twelve games for the Braves, he's got 11 RBIs and 12 runs scored. He's already hit seven home runs (which leads the majors). His slugging percentage is an astronomical .891 -- exceeded only by The Great Chris Davis. His batting average is .348. He has as many three-hit games (3) as hitless games. Justin Upton is the biggest reason why the Braves have only lost one of their first twelve games and own the best record in baseball.
All of his contributions already add up to a Wins Above Replacement total of 1.3. There were a whopping 24 regular players in baseball last year who couldn't accumulate 1.3 WAR over the entire season, let alone 12 games. In other words, two weeks of 2013 Justin Upton have already been more valuable than Delmon Young's entire 2012 season, and the same goes for Kevin Youkilis, and Rickie Weeks, and Colby Rasmus. That's amazing. He's currently on pace for 17.5 WAR (which won't happen, because the single-season record for a position player is Babe Ruth at 14). But even if he finishes the season with half of that total -- say, 9 WAR -- that would be a hyper-elite season. Not a single player in baseball had 9 WAR last year, except for Mike Trout. As the best player on an excellent team, putting up ridiculous offensive numbers, Justin Upton would have to be considered the current frontrunner for the National League MVP Award.
That's not even the coolest thing about Justin Upton. The coolest thing about Justin Upton is that he's only 25 years old. It'll probably be years and years before he shows any sort of decline. In fact, since a player is thought to reach his peak at age 27, it's possible that the very best of Upton is yet to come -- a frightening concept for Atlanta's division rivals.
Do the Braves have to worry about their emerging superstar's contract situation? If this was the NFL, then absolutely. But this is baseball. Players can't demand a contract renegotiation. The Braves control Upton for the rest of 2013, all of 2014, and all of 2015. Those are his prime seasons -- ages 25, 26, and 27 -- the ones in which he'll likely provide the most value. There's no telling how much other teams would be willing to pay Upton for those years on the open market. The Braves, however, will pay him a grand total of just $38.5 million across all three seasons. In other words, that's just a third of what Josh Hamilton signed for during the offseason. And roughly half of what Nick Swisher signed for. Considering Upton's contract (team-friendly), his age (young), his current production (awesome), and his ceiling (maybe-even-more-awesome), the Braves have one of the best assets in all of baseball.
Yet just a few months ago, it was the Arizona Diamondbacks, not the Braves, who were in possession of Upton. They traded him to Atlanta in January for three non-elite prospects, a pitcher who might be a fourth or fifth starter someday, and one season of a solid-but-unspectacular third baseman named Martin Prado. Calling that a swindling would be an understatement. It would be far more accurate to say that the Braves raided the Diamondbacks' village, slaughtered their cattle, burned down their dwellings, stuffed Justin Upton into a burlap sack, and stole away into the night. The first two weeks of the season have taught us that Justin Upton is a tremendously talented baseball player, but they've also taught us that the Arizona Diamondbacks made an unforgivably dismal trade.
Friday, January 25, 2013
Uptons in the Outfield
Entering the offseason, the team was in need of two outfielders. In November, they filled one of those holes by signing B.J. Upton to a five-year contract. Then, this Thursday, they completed the set by trading for B.J.'s younger brother Justin, rescuing him from the clutches of the clueless Arizona Diamondbacks.
Two siblings playing on the same team is not unprecedented. But a duo like the Uptons is unique. Most of the time, baseball genes are inequitably distributed within families, creating huge and sometimes-hilarious gaps in talent between brothers: Cal and Billy Ripken, Jason and Jeremy Giambi, Roberto and Sandy Alomar. The Uptons, though, are both oozing with rare five-tool athleticism -- and rather appropriately, their career paths are remarkably similar.
B.J. was the second overall pick back in the 2002 MLB Draft. Justin was selected three years later, but he one-upped his older brother by becoming the first overall selection. Both were picked right out of high school by expansion teams: B.J. became a Devil Ray, Justin a Diamondback. Both began their careers as shortstops before moving to the outfield. Scouting reports on both brothers were equally glowing, to the extent that, years later, they're still virtually interchangeable:
"Scouts compare Upton to a young Derek Jeter, right down to the swagger. Upton is further along in his development than Jeter at a comparable age. He's more physically mature than Jeter, who developed his physique in pro ball, and has better power."
"One would be hard-pressed to find a more advanced high school hitter than Upton. Upton has a lightning-quick bat, exciting power potential, and outstanding plate patience ...
Likening him to the pre-Cincinnati Reds Ken Griffey, Jr., many scouts and experts have said that ... Upton has seemingly no ceiling. He has all the makings of one of baseball's next elite players."
Both B.J.and Justin delivered on their massive promise at a young age. B.J. made his major league debut as a 19-year-old. During his first full season in 2007, when he was still just 22, he blossomed into a remarkable player, hitting .300/.386/.508 with 24 home runs and 22 stolen bases. The following year, B.J.helped the Rays reach the franchise's first-ever World Series by hitting seven home runs in his first 11 playoff games.
Unfortunately, both brothers suffered falls from grace after their breakout seasons. B.J. has never again replicated his 2007 campaign. His OPS totals have declined into the mid-.700s for the last three seasons. Similarly, Justin's 2012 was a step backwards from 2011. His slugging percentage dropped to .430 and he only hit 17 home runs as he battled a power-sapping thumb injury.
Thanks to the frustrating ebbs and flows of their respective careers, B.J. and Justin have both been subject to unfair accusations and nasty rumors in recent years. B.J.'s failure to repeat his 2007 excellence has led to some outsiders questioning his work ethic and competitive drive. Justin's inconsistent 2012 landed him on the trading block, and the Diamondbacks spent most of the last calendar year trying to deal him away. Those efforts became very public -- the club's owner, Ken Kendrick, even went on the radio in July and expressed his frustration with Justin, calling him an "enigma." The expectations for the Uptons have been set so extraordinarily high that unless they become Derek Jeter and Ken Griffey Jr., they will forever be deemed disappointments.
It's also a gamble worth taking. B.J. is still only 28 years old. He's in the middle of his prime and it's very possible that he hasn't even had his best season yet. Justin? He's just 25, and now that he's a year removed from his thumb injury (and free of that toxic environment in Arizona), some MVP-caliber seasons are not out of the question. With the Uptons manning left and center, and 23-year-old budding star Jason Heyward in right, the Braves are now in possession of the best outfield in baseball. Those three could become the outfield version of Maddux-Glavine-Smoltz. And even if they don't, they still compose one of the most exciting young cores in the entire league. By accumulating all of this talent, the Braves have once again set themselves up for years of success. They'll go as far as the Uptons take them. Which could be a very great distance.
Friday, October 5, 2012
Picking the Wild Card Winners
Orioles Over Rangers
This pick makes absolutely no sense, for the following reasons:
1) The game is in Texas
2) The Rangers are starting Yu Darvish, who is filthy-good
3) The Orioles are starting Joe Saunders, who is filthy-bad, especially against right-handers
4) The Rangers' lineup is primarily right-handed
But the whole Orioles season doesn't make sense. Why should reason get in the way now?
The O's have a significant strategic advantage over the Rangers because Buck Showalter is a great tactician and Ron Washington is whatever the opposite of a great tactician is. Joe Saunders is probably going to get rocked, and Showalter isn't stupid. At the first sign of trouble, he'll have no qualms about yanking Saunders and handing the game over to his excellent bullpen. From that moment on, the Orioles will have the advantage. In the middle and late innings, the game could come down to pitching changes, pinch-hitters, and platoon advantages, and Showalter will out-maneuver Washington in this department.
If I was Showalter, I would have Saunders start but only pitch to the first three hitters (so his ultimate job is to retire Josh Hamilton). Then I'd bring in Steve Johnson, a right-handed starter, to go a couple innings. Ron Washington will certainly stack his lineup with righties against Saunders, so bringing in Johnson counters that move. It forces Washington to either give up the platoon advantage for the first half of the game, or burn his pinch-hitters early. This should stunt the Rangers' offense. Then Showalter can mix and match with his great bullpen for the final five or six innings.
The point is that Joe Saunders is extremely unlikely to pitch well tonight. But Showalter is the kind of manager who won't be timid about taking him out early if necessary. After all they've done, why pick against the Orioles now?
Orioles advance in a high-scoring, home-run-happy thriller.
Braves Over Cardinals
I give Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez a lot of credit (despite being known as the Ron Washington of the National League) for making two tough lineup decisions in advance of this do-or-die game.
For one, he chose to start the less-proven (but completely dominant) Kris Medlen in this game as opposed to experienced veteran Tim Hudson. A lot of managers would defer to the 'guy who's been there before.' Medlen is the better choice and Gonzalez got it right. In twelve starts this season, his ERA is 0.97. That's insane.
Gonzalez also chose to bench his struggling starting catcher, Brian McCann, in favor of backup David Ross. This would've been considered unthinkable a few months ago. But McCann is struggling through a shoulder injury so Gonzalez is going with the superior defender in what should be a low-scoring affair. A tough decision, but again, the right one.
The Cardinals are starting Kyle Lohse, a right-hander, who has been spectacular this season. He also doesn't have much of a platoon split, so the fact that the Braves are very left-handed won't matter too much. It could, however, matter in the late innings when Lohse is gone. The Cardinals don't have a shutdown left-handed reliever, which will be a problem against Michael Bourn, Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, and switch-hitters Martin Prado and Chipper Jones.
The Braves, on the other hand, have the best reliever in baseball: their closer, Craig Kimbrel. The Cardinals aren't going to score on him. In fact, if Fredi Gonzalez is willing to use Kimbrel for two innings, and Medlen goes seven, the Cardinals will be trying to score against the two most unhittable pitchers in baseball right now. The fact that the Braves also have one of the best defenses in baseball makes them masters of preventing runs.
And the fact that the Braves have Chipper Jones karma...well, that doesn't mean nothing.
Braves advance in a tight affair.
This pick makes absolutely no sense, for the following reasons:
1) The game is in Texas
2) The Rangers are starting Yu Darvish, who is filthy-good
3) The Orioles are starting Joe Saunders, who is filthy-bad, especially against right-handers
4) The Rangers' lineup is primarily right-handed
But the whole Orioles season doesn't make sense. Why should reason get in the way now?
The O's have a significant strategic advantage over the Rangers because Buck Showalter is a great tactician and Ron Washington is whatever the opposite of a great tactician is. Joe Saunders is probably going to get rocked, and Showalter isn't stupid. At the first sign of trouble, he'll have no qualms about yanking Saunders and handing the game over to his excellent bullpen. From that moment on, the Orioles will have the advantage. In the middle and late innings, the game could come down to pitching changes, pinch-hitters, and platoon advantages, and Showalter will out-maneuver Washington in this department.
If I was Showalter, I would have Saunders start but only pitch to the first three hitters (so his ultimate job is to retire Josh Hamilton). Then I'd bring in Steve Johnson, a right-handed starter, to go a couple innings. Ron Washington will certainly stack his lineup with righties against Saunders, so bringing in Johnson counters that move. It forces Washington to either give up the platoon advantage for the first half of the game, or burn his pinch-hitters early. This should stunt the Rangers' offense. Then Showalter can mix and match with his great bullpen for the final five or six innings.
The point is that Joe Saunders is extremely unlikely to pitch well tonight. But Showalter is the kind of manager who won't be timid about taking him out early if necessary. After all they've done, why pick against the Orioles now?
Orioles advance in a high-scoring, home-run-happy thriller.
Braves Over Cardinals
I give Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez a lot of credit (despite being known as the Ron Washington of the National League) for making two tough lineup decisions in advance of this do-or-die game.
For one, he chose to start the less-proven (but completely dominant) Kris Medlen in this game as opposed to experienced veteran Tim Hudson. A lot of managers would defer to the 'guy who's been there before.' Medlen is the better choice and Gonzalez got it right. In twelve starts this season, his ERA is 0.97. That's insane.
Gonzalez also chose to bench his struggling starting catcher, Brian McCann, in favor of backup David Ross. This would've been considered unthinkable a few months ago. But McCann is struggling through a shoulder injury so Gonzalez is going with the superior defender in what should be a low-scoring affair. A tough decision, but again, the right one.
The Cardinals are starting Kyle Lohse, a right-hander, who has been spectacular this season. He also doesn't have much of a platoon split, so the fact that the Braves are very left-handed won't matter too much. It could, however, matter in the late innings when Lohse is gone. The Cardinals don't have a shutdown left-handed reliever, which will be a problem against Michael Bourn, Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, and switch-hitters Martin Prado and Chipper Jones.
The Braves, on the other hand, have the best reliever in baseball: their closer, Craig Kimbrel. The Cardinals aren't going to score on him. In fact, if Fredi Gonzalez is willing to use Kimbrel for two innings, and Medlen goes seven, the Cardinals will be trying to score against the two most unhittable pitchers in baseball right now. The fact that the Braves also have one of the best defenses in baseball makes them masters of preventing runs.
And the fact that the Braves have Chipper Jones karma...well, that doesn't mean nothing.
Braves advance in a tight affair.
Wednesday, August 8, 2012
I Know You Just Wrote This to Stir Controversy, But...
Relievers can't win the Cy Young Award.
I mean, they can, theoretically. If they put up a truly unprecedented, historic, dominant season, while simultaneously no starting pitcher has a particularly good year. That's never really happened. The voters have deemed a reliever worthy of the Cy Young Award nine times, and each time you can find starters who were far more worthy of the reward.
Why is this? Starting pitchers are always more valuable based on the number of innings they throw and how difficult they are to replace. It's relatively easy to find a pitcher who throw as hard as they can one inning a time without the need to worry about pitch counts or facing batters multiple times.
So, naturally, someone named Gregg Doyel of CBS Sports.com thinks that the two front-runners for the 2012 NL Cy Young Award are both relievers. And, according to him, it's not even close. He writes:
R.A. Dickey is having a Cy Young sort of season. So is Johnny Cueto. Maybe a few other starting pitchers in the National League, too, but especially Dickey and Cueto. They're on pace to win 20 games, lose fewer than half of those and finish among league leaders in ERA and strikeouts -- which is to say, they're having seasons typical of a Cy Young winner.
But Aroldis Chapman and Craig Kimbrel are having seasons that have never been done before.
So let's give the Cy Young to one of them.
Terrible, miserable logic. Hey, check this out: Aaron Cook of the Boston Red Sox is succeeding in the major leagues despite, quite literally, not striking anyone out, which has pretty much never been done before. Does he deserve the Cy Young? Simply because he's having a season that has "never been done before"? Of course not. This is stupid. Justin Verlander might win the AL Cy Young by doing the exact same thing he did last year. This does not detract from his candidacy.
Problem is, Chapman and Kimbrel are relievers, and relievers aren't supposed to win this thing.
Correct!
A closer will win it from time to time, but usually he has to have some bitchin' facial hair or 50-plus saves or just do like Sparky Lyle did in 1977 and pitch for the Yankees.
Well, that's one problem with my position. There are several, all of which can be explained away, but only in the hands of an expert. Which is where I come in. But first, I'll take your top three complaints.
1. It's too early to be talking about the Cy Young!
In a vacuum, yes -- if this were a typical season for the NL Cy Young, meaning it would go to the best starting pitcher, it would be way too early. (...)
They can, and they are. Again, they're historically good, both of them, which is weird because it's happening in the same season. (...)
This isn't the question. Of course they're THAT good. The question is whether they're good ENOUGH to overcome the very large natural gap that exists between starters and relievers. (Spoiler alert: they're not).
3. They don't work as many innings as starters.
No kidding. That's an argument-ender for lots of people, and on the surface, it makes sense. Dickey, Cueto, Cain, Kershaw -- lots of starters having great seasons are on pace to throw 200-plus innings, potentially tripling Chapman or Kimbrel.
But...you completely ignored that whole innings thing. You tried to distract me with those shiny ERAs. Nice try.
Because of the whole innings thing, ten NL starters have been as valuable or more valuable than Aroldis Chapman based on Wins Above Replacement. 21 have been at least as valuable as Craig Kimbrel. As Doyel pointed out, Chapman and Kimbrel's innings totals will be tripled by other top starting pitchers, like Johnny Cueto.
Chapman's ERA in 48 1/3 innings against National League opposition is zero point one-nine. Again, that's Little League stuff. (...)
He's pitching one inning at a time. You can't compare this to a starting pitcher's ERA. They are completely different things.
Actually, here's a good test. Both Johnny Cueto and Aroldis Chapman pitch for the first-place Cincinnati Reds. Chapman has a 1.34 ERA. Cueto has a 2.58 ERA. One would assume that Chapman > Cueto. Now: take Chapman off the Reds, and they'd lose a few more games, but they'd be fine. Take Cueto and his 100 additional innings off the Reds? They probably wouldn't be in first place. One of these players is far more difficult to replace than the other. Extrapolate from there.
Anyone else? There isn't anyone else.
It's a complete fallacy to put relief pitchers in consideration for the same award as starting pitchers for reasons that go even beyond the innings gap. It's like comparing apples and oranges, or like giving the MVP award to a specialized bench player over an everyday player. For one, relievers are inherently replaceable (just look at Fernando Rodney, a scrap-heap pick-up converted into shutdown closer). Top aces, on the other hand, are the rarest, most-sought-after commodity in the game. Furthermore, Chapman and Kimbrel don't need to worry about fatigue or pitch counts or facing hitters multiple times. They get to throw as hard as they possibly can for one inning at a time. Who's to say that Stephen Strasburg or Clayton Kershaw couldn't do what Chapman and Kimbrel do? Quite frankly, it's easier. But most importantly of all:
Relief pitchers are almost always failed starting pitchers.
Again, because it's that important:
Relief pitchers are almost always failed starting pitchers.
That makes the reliever inherently inferior to the starter. If Aroldis Chapman and Craig Kimbrel were good enough to start, they would, because of how exponentially more valuable that role is compared to a bullpen arm. But they can't start. They can't do what Johnny Cueto and Matt Cain and R.A. Dickey and Cole Hamels do so well, for a variety of reasons. Chapman relies on superhuman velocity to beat hitters, which wouldn't hold up over a six-inning start. Plus, he would walk too many guys to be effective. Kimbrel can't start because he doesn't have the stamina, and his mechanics are far too wacky to survive the wear-and-tear of 200 innings. And neither Chapman nor Kimbrel has the third or fourth pitch that a starting pitcher needs.
Appreciate Chapman and Kimbrel for what they are, and acknowledge their brilliance within its proper context. But rewarding either of them--or any relief pitcher--with a Cy Young would represent a gross misunderstanding of how pitching works.
I mean, they can, theoretically. If they put up a truly unprecedented, historic, dominant season, while simultaneously no starting pitcher has a particularly good year. That's never really happened. The voters have deemed a reliever worthy of the Cy Young Award nine times, and each time you can find starters who were far more worthy of the reward.
Why is this? Starting pitchers are always more valuable based on the number of innings they throw and how difficult they are to replace. It's relatively easy to find a pitcher who throw as hard as they can one inning a time without the need to worry about pitch counts or facing batters multiple times.
So, naturally, someone named Gregg Doyel of CBS Sports.com thinks that the two front-runners for the 2012 NL Cy Young Award are both relievers. And, according to him, it's not even close. He writes:
R.A. Dickey is having a Cy Young sort of season. So is Johnny Cueto. Maybe a few other starting pitchers in the National League, too, but especially Dickey and Cueto. They're on pace to win 20 games, lose fewer than half of those and finish among league leaders in ERA and strikeouts -- which is to say, they're having seasons typical of a Cy Young winner.
But Aroldis Chapman and Craig Kimbrel are having seasons that have never been done before.
So let's give the Cy Young to one of them.
Terrible, miserable logic. Hey, check this out: Aaron Cook of the Boston Red Sox is succeeding in the major leagues despite, quite literally, not striking anyone out, which has pretty much never been done before. Does he deserve the Cy Young? Simply because he's having a season that has "never been done before"? Of course not. This is stupid. Justin Verlander might win the AL Cy Young by doing the exact same thing he did last year. This does not detract from his candidacy.
Problem is, Chapman and Kimbrel are relievers, and relievers aren't supposed to win this thing.
Correct!
A closer will win it from time to time, but usually he has to have some bitchin' facial hair or 50-plus saves or just do like Sparky Lyle did in 1977 and pitch for the Yankees.
Well, that's one problem with my position. There are several, all of which can be explained away, but only in the hands of an expert. Which is where I come in. But first, I'll take your top three complaints.
1. It's too early to be talking about the Cy Young!
In a vacuum, yes -- if this were a typical season for the NL Cy Young, meaning it would go to the best starting pitcher, it would be way too early. (...)
But this isn't a typical season, because Chapman and Kimbrel aren't typical candidates. They're not even typical closer candidates. Chapman has 25 saves, which is nice but isn't going to lead the league -- and Kimbrel might not lead the league either, seeing how he's one behind Joel Hanrahan's league-leading 32. How do you give the Cy Young to a closer who doesn't lead the league in saves (or have bitchin' facial hair or pitch for the Yankees)?
You don't. And if the season ended today, voters wouldn't.
The ONLY thing in the universe worse than giving the Cy Young to a reliever is giving the Cy Young to a reliever based on the most arbitrary, dreamed-up statistic ever engineered: the save.
Without telling them why, I asked four baseball writers at CBSSports.com and one at Yahoo Sports for their top-three Cy Young ballot if the season ended today. None of them named Chapman or Kimbrel.
You should've taken the hint, dude.
So I'm here to get the word out, start a conversation about the NL Cy Young, because the right thing must be done. And the right thing is for Chapman and Kimbrel to be sitting in the lead at this moment.
2. Chapman and Kimbrel can't be THAT good.
You don't. And if the season ended today, voters wouldn't.
The ONLY thing in the universe worse than giving the Cy Young to a reliever is giving the Cy Young to a reliever based on the most arbitrary, dreamed-up statistic ever engineered: the save.
Without telling them why, I asked four baseball writers at CBSSports.com and one at Yahoo Sports for their top-three Cy Young ballot if the season ended today. None of them named Chapman or Kimbrel.
You should've taken the hint, dude.
So I'm here to get the word out, start a conversation about the NL Cy Young, because the right thing must be done. And the right thing is for Chapman and Kimbrel to be sitting in the lead at this moment.
2. Chapman and Kimbrel can't be THAT good.
They can, and they are. Again, they're historically good, both of them, which is weird because it's happening in the same season. (...)
This isn't the question. Of course they're THAT good. The question is whether they're good ENOUGH to overcome the very large natural gap that exists between starters and relievers. (Spoiler alert: they're not).
3. They don't work as many innings as starters.
No kidding. That's an argument-ender for lots of people, and on the surface, it makes sense. Dickey, Cueto, Cain, Kershaw -- lots of starters having great seasons are on pace to throw 200-plus innings, potentially tripling Chapman or Kimbrel.
But below the surface of that number are other numbers. Kimbrel's ERA is 1.29. Chapman's is slightly behind that at 1.34, but against National League foes, his ERA is 0.19.
Because of the whole innings thing, ten NL starters have been as valuable or more valuable than Aroldis Chapman based on Wins Above Replacement. 21 have been at least as valuable as Craig Kimbrel. As Doyel pointed out, Chapman and Kimbrel's innings totals will be tripled by other top starting pitchers, like Johnny Cueto.
Chapman's ERA in 48 1/3 innings against National League opposition is zero point one-nine. Again, that's Little League stuff. (...)
He's pitching one inning at a time. You can't compare this to a starting pitcher's ERA. They are completely different things.
Actually, here's a good test. Both Johnny Cueto and Aroldis Chapman pitch for the first-place Cincinnati Reds. Chapman has a 1.34 ERA. Cueto has a 2.58 ERA. One would assume that Chapman > Cueto. Now: take Chapman off the Reds, and they'd lose a few more games, but they'd be fine. Take Cueto and his 100 additional innings off the Reds? They probably wouldn't be in first place. One of these players is far more difficult to replace than the other. Extrapolate from there.
You can see who would get my vote Cy Young, if the season ended today: Aroldis Chapman. But I would settle for Craig Kimbrel.
Anyone else? There isn't anyone else.
It's a complete fallacy to put relief pitchers in consideration for the same award as starting pitchers for reasons that go even beyond the innings gap. It's like comparing apples and oranges, or like giving the MVP award to a specialized bench player over an everyday player. For one, relievers are inherently replaceable (just look at Fernando Rodney, a scrap-heap pick-up converted into shutdown closer). Top aces, on the other hand, are the rarest, most-sought-after commodity in the game. Furthermore, Chapman and Kimbrel don't need to worry about fatigue or pitch counts or facing hitters multiple times. They get to throw as hard as they possibly can for one inning at a time. Who's to say that Stephen Strasburg or Clayton Kershaw couldn't do what Chapman and Kimbrel do? Quite frankly, it's easier. But most importantly of all:
Relief pitchers are almost always failed starting pitchers.
Again, because it's that important:
Relief pitchers are almost always failed starting pitchers.
That makes the reliever inherently inferior to the starter. If Aroldis Chapman and Craig Kimbrel were good enough to start, they would, because of how exponentially more valuable that role is compared to a bullpen arm. But they can't start. They can't do what Johnny Cueto and Matt Cain and R.A. Dickey and Cole Hamels do so well, for a variety of reasons. Chapman relies on superhuman velocity to beat hitters, which wouldn't hold up over a six-inning start. Plus, he would walk too many guys to be effective. Kimbrel can't start because he doesn't have the stamina, and his mechanics are far too wacky to survive the wear-and-tear of 200 innings. And neither Chapman nor Kimbrel has the third or fourth pitch that a starting pitcher needs.
Appreciate Chapman and Kimbrel for what they are, and acknowledge their brilliance within its proper context. But rewarding either of them--or any relief pitcher--with a Cy Young would represent a gross misunderstanding of how pitching works.
Friday, May 18, 2012
The Braves Are Good at This Pitching Thing
Who is Brandon Beachy?
On Thursday, 25-year-old Brandon Beachy threw a complete-game shutout for the Braves against the hot-hitting Miami Marlins. He allowed only five hits, struck out six, and walked none while throwing 80 of his 122 pitches for strikes. The performance lowered his ERA to 1.33 in eight starts, best in baseball, to accompany his 0.89 WHIP, third-best in baseball.
Four years ago, Beachy was primarily an infielder for Indiana Wesleyan University. He wasn't drafted. The Braves signed him as a non-drafted free agent, and he was used as a reliever in the low levels of their farm system. Then, in 2010, something clicked. Beachy suddenly became one of the best pitchers in minor league baseball. Across 119.1 innings in Double-A and Triple-A, he posted a 1.73 ERA, 148 strikeouts, and just 28 walks. He made his big league debut in September, two years after more than 1,500 players were drafted instead of him.
In 2011, he made 25 starts for the Braves. He struck out 169 in 141.2 innings, the best strikeout rate for any starter with at least 100 innings. Now, in 2012, he's become one of the best pitchers in baseball, relying on deception, command, and underrated stuff to lead a strong Braves rotation.
Brandon Beachy, college infielder turned minor league reliever turned major league ace, is a rather unbelievable story. And he serves as yet another reminder that the Braves are pretty good at what they do.
On Thursday, 25-year-old Brandon Beachy threw a complete-game shutout for the Braves against the hot-hitting Miami Marlins. He allowed only five hits, struck out six, and walked none while throwing 80 of his 122 pitches for strikes. The performance lowered his ERA to 1.33 in eight starts, best in baseball, to accompany his 0.89 WHIP, third-best in baseball.
Four years ago, Beachy was primarily an infielder for Indiana Wesleyan University. He wasn't drafted. The Braves signed him as a non-drafted free agent, and he was used as a reliever in the low levels of their farm system. Then, in 2010, something clicked. Beachy suddenly became one of the best pitchers in minor league baseball. Across 119.1 innings in Double-A and Triple-A, he posted a 1.73 ERA, 148 strikeouts, and just 28 walks. He made his big league debut in September, two years after more than 1,500 players were drafted instead of him.
In 2011, he made 25 starts for the Braves. He struck out 169 in 141.2 innings, the best strikeout rate for any starter with at least 100 innings. Now, in 2012, he's become one of the best pitchers in baseball, relying on deception, command, and underrated stuff to lead a strong Braves rotation.
Brandon Beachy, college infielder turned minor league reliever turned major league ace, is a rather unbelievable story. And he serves as yet another reminder that the Braves are pretty good at what they do.
Sunday, April 1, 2012
MLB Season Preview: Atlanta Braves
Both Atlanta and Boston suffered historic collapses last September, but unlike the Red Sox, the Braves stayed the course and chose to make no significant changes to their roster or front office.
Offense: The Braves' lineup lacks a superstar. Instead, they've got solid hitters at almost every position. In center field, Michael Bourn has stolen 61 bases in two of the past three years. Second baseman Dan Uggla was one of the hottest hitters in the majors during the second half of 2011, finishing with at least 30 homers for the fifth straight season. Freddie Freeman had an excellent rookie year as a 22-year-old and is a rising star at first base. Brian McCann is the whole package behind the plate. Chipper Jones will start the season on the DL, but Martin Prado can fill in at third and play the outfield. Only shortstop looks to be a black hole after the departure of Alex Gonzalez. The X factor is Jason Heyward, who experienced a major sophomore slump last year. We know what he's capable of.
Pitching: Even after dumping Derek Lowe on the Indians, the Braves have one of baseball's best pitching staffs...but only if everyone is healthy. Tim Hudson isn't expected back until May following back surgery. Tommy Hanson has proven himself to be a true ace when he's on the mound but he's dealt with shoulder issues recently. And even if Jair Jurrjens is healthy, his 2011 ERA of 2.96 is going to experience some major regression to the mean. Atlanta's depth is truly remarkable, though. Brandon Beachy (10.6 K/9 ratio last year) and Mike Minor are two young, cost-controlled starters that have come up through the farm system. To start the year, the fifth starter will either be Randall Delgado, who impressed in a brief 2011 cameo, or Julio Teheran, one of the game's best pitching prospects. The bullpen is just as good. Closer Craig Kimbrel posted a dominant 14.9 K/9 ratio and 46 saves in his Rookie of the Year campaign, while his setup man Jonny Venters was equally unhittable (1.84 ERA). Kris Medlen and Eric O'Flaherty are two other excellent relief arms and Livan Hernandez is yet another depth option.
Breakout Candidates: Trust the Braves when it comes to pitching development: Brandon Beachy and Mike Minor can be very good starters given full workloads. In the lineup, both Freeman and Heyward have technically 'broken out' already, but both are capable of taking the next step towards stardom.
3 Key Questions: Will Hudson, Hanson, and Jurrjens stay healthy? What will happen to the left side of the infield? And will Jason Heyward return to 2010 form, when he looked like a future MVP?
Best Case Scenario: Heyward is a stud, the top starters stay healthy and effective, the bullpen is dominant yet again, and the NL's most balanced club wins the East and goes to the World Series.
Worst Case Scenario: Heyward's slump continues, Hanson's shoulder explodes, Hudson's back implodes, Kimbrel and Venters show the effects of heavy workloads, and the Braves lose out on a playoff spot to the pitching-rich Phillies and the revamped Marlins and Nationals.
Predicted Finish: The Braves were essentially a playoff team last year, and there's reason to expect bounce-back years from Heyward and Prado as well as healthier years from the top starters. The Braves will leapfrog the aging Phillies and win the NL East.
 |
| Hey, remember this guy? |
| Craig Kimbrel struck out 127 hitters last season. As a relief pitcher. |
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| Brandon Beachy struck out 169 hitters in just 141.2 innings last season. |
3 Key Questions: Will Hudson, Hanson, and Jurrjens stay healthy? What will happen to the left side of the infield? And will Jason Heyward return to 2010 form, when he looked like a future MVP?
Best Case Scenario: Heyward is a stud, the top starters stay healthy and effective, the bullpen is dominant yet again, and the NL's most balanced club wins the East and goes to the World Series.
Worst Case Scenario: Heyward's slump continues, Hanson's shoulder explodes, Hudson's back implodes, Kimbrel and Venters show the effects of heavy workloads, and the Braves lose out on a playoff spot to the pitching-rich Phillies and the revamped Marlins and Nationals.
Predicted Finish: The Braves were essentially a playoff team last year, and there's reason to expect bounce-back years from Heyward and Prado as well as healthier years from the top starters. The Braves will leapfrog the aging Phillies and win the NL East.
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