Selection Sunday is just a day away. There are still about 11 spots in the NCAA Tournament up for grabs.
Well, that's oversimplifying things. Crazy stuff could still hypothetically happen in a few conference tournaments, like Maryland winning the ACC, which would throw a wrench into everything. But accounting for all the teams that have already locked themselves into the NCAA Tournament field regardless of any other shenanigans, there are still about 11 at-large spots available. Here are the programs in contention for those spots, ordered roughly from safest to most in danger of Sunday disappointment.
The Likelies (teams that are probably in the safe Group of Eleven, but "lock" is too strong a word)
1. Villanova: Did lose to Louisville in the Big East tournament, but took care of business by avoiding a bad loss to St. John's before that. Villanova has too many good wins (Louisville, Georgetown, Syracuse, Marquette) to miss out on March Madness. One would think.
2. Temple: Scored a huge comeback victory against VCU in the regular season finale. That, combined with an 11-5 record in the Atlantic 10 and nonconference wins over Syracuse and Villanova, ought to be enough for the Owls. Still not a lock thanks to some horrifying losses and an early exit from the Atlantic 10 tournament.
3. Iowa State: The Cyclones were down by as many as 14 points in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament against Oklahoma. A loss could have sent them to the NIT. Instead, they rallied to defeat another quality bubble team (on a neutral floor). Should be okay even after falling to Kansas in the semis.
4. Oklahoma: Thanks to the aforementioned comeback, the Sooners probably just got leapfrogged by Iowa State on the Selection Committee's totem pole. They've now lost three out of five, including defeats to Texas and TCU. This might have cost Oklahoma a bid -- in a different year. In 2013, the rest of the bubble is too weak for the Sooners to be relegated to the NIT.
5. Colorado: Actually a very nice resumé here. The 39th-best RPI, a sweep of Oregon, and wins over Colorado State, Arizona, and California. The Buffaloes would've been a lock ... had they not lost their final home game of the year to Oregon State. Thankfully they won the rematch in the opening round of the Pac-12 Tournament, though they were eliminated by Arizona a day later. Looking good.
6. California: In the same boat as Colorado. Cal should've been a lock, then lost the final two games of the season -- to Stanford and Utah. Oof. It would still be a surprise if the second-place team in the Pac-12 didn't make the tournament.
For you math wizards, that leaves only five bids remaining for everybody else. This is where things get sticky.
The True Coin-Flips (teams that legitimately won't have any idea about their fate until Greg Gumbel does/doesn't announce their name on Sunday's national broadcast)
7. Boise State: The Broncos' case rests almost entirely on how strong the Selection Committee thinks the Mountain West Conference really is. They went 9-7 in the MWC with wins over UNLV, Colorado State, and San Diego State, as well as a road nonconference win at Creighton. However, they bowed out in the first round of their conference tournament and can't add to their resumé. So they're stuck in bubble limbo. It may come down to the Committee deciding between a fifth team from the MWC and a third or fourth from the SEC. I'd rather see Boise State.
8. Saint Mary's: A difficult team to judge. The Gaels have a good RPI (33) and a nice 23-6 record (with half of those losses coming to Gonzaga); they went to the WCC title game; and they look pretty good. Yet they also did nothing outside of the West Coast Conference besides beating Creighton at home. Subjectively, Saint Mary's is good enough to make the tournament. It's also really easy to envision a scenario in which the Selection Committee makes an example out of the Gaels by leaving them out of the field as punishment for undertaking a pansy schedule.
9. La Salle: A lot like Boise State, except we're talking about the fifth team out of the Atlantic 10 instead of the MWC. The RPI is good at 38, and they beat Butler, VCU, and Villanova. A solid body of work here. The problem: they're out of the A-10 Tournament and risk being leapfrogged by one of the teams below.
10. Alabama: One of the big bubble winners on a busy Friday. The Crimson Tide won what was basically an elimination game against Tennessee to advance to the SEC semifinals, where they'll face Florida. A win in that game wouldn't just put Alabama in position for an at-large berth -- it would put them a win away from taking the decision out of the Committee's hands by simply stealing the SEC's automatic bid.
11. Middle Tennessee State: If an off-the-map school is going to get a surprise bid, this is the one. The Blue Raiders went 19-1 in the Sun Belt but were upset in the quarterfinals of their conference tournament, creating an interesting predicament. Their RPI ranks 31st in the country -- historically, an RPI that high is almost always good enough to make the tournament. Unfortunately, their only good win came against Ole Miss. That's all they've got. There's no way to know how the Committee is going to handle this wild card.
12. Ole Miss: It's bizarre that Ole Miss and Middle Tennessee State happened to play each other months ago. The latter's victory in that game could end up being hugely significant. However, Ole Miss does have an edge: they're still playing. They pulled off a must-have comeback victory against Missouri on Friday to advance to the semifinals of the SEC tournament, where they'll face Vanderbilt. A win in that game, and thus an appearance in the finals, could easily secure this team a bid.
The Faces Pressed Up Against the Window (teams that need either an obscenely generous decision from the Selection Committee or a deep conference tournament run to reach the field of 68)
13. Tennessee: Just came up short in the SEC quarterfinals against Alabama. That didn't help the key flaw on their resumé, a lack of a quality win away from home. How much respect will the Selection Committee have for the SEC? We'll find out soon enough.
14. Virginia: The Cavs have more than enough good wins. It's the bad losses that cripple their resumé and push their RPI into the 60s. The consensus was that they'd have to do damage in the ACC Tournament to stay alive; then they were blown out by N.C. State. Oh well. You should've beaten Old Dominion, Virginia. This will be an interesting litmus test with regard to what the Committee values more -- the ability to beat elite teams or the ability to avoid bad losses.
15. Maryland: If only the Terrapins played every opponent like they play against Duke. Their resumé now consists of two wins against the Blue Devils, one against N.C. State, and ... literally nothing else. Their nonconference schedule was miserable. They were swept by Virginia and Florida State. Getting to the ACC championship game was the bare minimum from the start, and even that might not be enough. Winning the whole tournament might be their only way in at this point.
16. Kentucky: Oh man. What happened here? Kentucky was trending upwards after beating both Florida and Missouri without Nerlens Noel. Then the Wildcats suffered one of the most jaw-dropping losses imaginable by falling to Vanderbilt in the SEC quarterfinals. It wasn't even close. And it absolutely should cost Kentucky a bid.
17. Massachusetts: Still alive in the Atlantic 10 tournament, and still technically a bubble team. Like Maryland, though, the Minutemen are behind too many teams in the queue and really need to win the A-10's automatic bid.
18 & 19. Baylor and Iowa: Both were on the periphery of the bubble entering the tournament, but both lost heartbreaking quarterfinal games. Almost certainly out.
This whole thing is very fluid. Teams are rising from the bubble grave (Maryland, Ole Miss, Alabama), and others are falling flat on their faces (Kentucky, Virginia, KENTUCKY). If the Selection Committee had to make its decision right now, those last 11 slots would probably be taken by the six "Likelies," along with, say, Boise State, Saint Mary's, La Salle, Middle Tennessee State, and [insert random SEC team here].
It's important to note, however, that most of those last few teams are idle. They're done playing and can't improve their stock. This leaves them vulnerable to being leapfrogged by teams that are still alive. In fact, if Alabama and Ole Miss both win Saturday in the semifinals (against Florida and Vandy,) they would probably both move into the projected field of 68, bumping two of those other helpless teams out. Suddenly, the SEC has become the central theater of bubble warfare. And the fact that La Salle and Saint Mary's suddenly have huge rooting interests in the SEC Tournament semifinals speaks to just how Mad things get around this time of year.
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