Jean Segura, Cautionary Tale

Last season, the Los Angeles Angels waited until April 28th to call up Mike Trout from the minor leagues. Their record without Trout was just 6-14. Their record with him the rest of the way was 83-59, a .584 winning percentage that would've ranked 2nd in the American League last year and 4th in baseball overall. It was that awful 20-game, Trout-less stretch that crippled the Angels and left them four games out of the wild card race when the season ended. It may have also cost them a perennial All-Star.

Entering play on July 27th last year, the Angels had climbed back to nine games over .500 (54-45) and were in first place in the wild card hunt, but they were still five games behind Texas in the AL West race. They decided to acquire Zack Greinke from the Milwaukee Brewers that day, pairing him with Jered Weaver atop a suddenly-revamped starting rotation. Greinke should've made the Angels a virtual lock to make the playoffs, a serious challenger for the AL West title, and a World Series contender.

Greinke did pitch well for his new team -- a 3.53 ERA in 13 starts -- and the Angels' record the rest of the season was 35-28. But they missed the playoffs anyway, thanks to late-season surges by Oakland and Baltimore. Their offseason attempts to re-sign Greinke to a long-term contract failed thanks in part to the bottomless coffers of their crosstown rivals. Suddenly the Angels had nothing to show for the entire trade. They didn't make the playoffs with Greinke; they didn't keep him long-term; they didn't even get draft pick compensation for him because he was acquired midseason. The Angels took a huge gamble to help dig themselves out of the massive hole they had dug in April, and ended up rolling snake eyes.

The worst part? One of the prospects the Angels surrendered to get Greinke has been playing like an MVP candidate in 2013. That's the 23-year-old Jean Segura, who's now manning shortstop for the Milwaukee Brewers. Not only does he lead the National League in hits (53) and steals (14, and caught only twice), he's also accumulated the fifth-most WAR in all of baseball. His batting line is Tulowitzkian for a shortstop: a .353 average, .395 OBP, and .573 slugging percentage. He's even hit seven home runs. Right now, Jean Segura is the best shortstop in baseball, which is completely insane. This almost certainly won't continue long-term, but the mere fact that Segura is capable of playing at this ridiculous level has to be disconcerting to Angels management.

The final ledger: the Angels dealt away Segura, who won't be a free agent until 2019 and won't even be eligible for an arbitration pay raise until 2016, for two months of Zack Greinke and no playoff berth. Six seasons of a 23-year-old shortstop for 13 starts. Calling that trade a disaster doesn't even begin to capture it accurately. Jean Segura now stands as THE cautionary tale for any team that feels tempted to strike a bold deadline deal for a star. When a trade of this caliber goes as poorly as this one has, someone usually gets fired. Especially given the success of smaller, less-ambitious midseason trades that don't cost as much (see: Marco Scutaro, circa-late-2012). If Segura continues to play like this, while Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton continue their expensive declines, it can't be too long before Angels general manager Jerry DiPoto finds himself out of a job.

The ironic thing about all of this is that trading for Greinke was probably the right decision for the Angels at the time. They were in win-now mode and made a trade that easily could have led to a World Series title. It just didn't, and now there's a budding star in Milwaukee who will serve as a painful, constant reminder of that fact.

Go West, Young Man

On Friday evening, the Los Angeles Angels acquired 28-year-old ace Zack Greinke from the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for three of their top prospects. Greinke is a free agent after the season, so without a contract extension, the move is only about 2012 for the Angels. What this means for each of the parties involved:

The Angels: they likely would've made the playoffs without Greinke: since starting the season 18-25, eight games back of the Rangers, the Angels have gone 37-20 to pull within four games of the AL West lead. No, acquiring Greinke isn't about the wild card. It's about the division. A third ace won't do you any good if you're subject to the randomness of the one-game wild card playoff. Therefore, getting Greinke is about avoiding that nightmarish scenario and setting the Angels up for a longer, more favorable playoff series in which their opponents must deal with Jered Weaver twice, C.J. Wilson, and Greinke. With a trio like that, the Angels would be favored in any five- or seven-game playoff series. In a one-game playoff series, no one can be favored. That's what LA--in full win-now mode--wants to avoid at all costs.

The Angels' rotation: now composed of Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson, Zack Greinke, Dan Haren, and one of several fifth starter candidates. This is the best rotation the American League has seen in many many years.

The Angels' farm system: General Manager Jerry DiPoto did well in trading for Greinke without giving up pieces that are helping the Angels win this year. That would be players like speedy center fielder Peter Bourjos and fifth starter/bullpen candidate Garrett Richards. Instead, DiPoto gave up major-league-ready infield prospect Jean Segura and two high-ceiling Double-A hurlers, Ariel Pena and John Hellweg. That completely decimates the Angels' farm system, but like the Detroit Tigers, the Angels rightly shouldn't be worried about that given the level of investment in the major league roster.

The Brewers: throwing up the white flag on 2012, and possibly 2013 too. At least they got good value for their ace, and Greinke was a huge part of the best season in Brewers' history.

Zack Greinke: the only hesitation teams have about Greinke is his ability to perform on a big stage. In LA, he gets a chance to prove himself in a major market, during a pennant chase and potential playoff run. If he performs well, he'll make himself tens of millions of extra dollars during free agency, with the Angels or elsewhere.

The Rangers: uh-oh. They lost one Colby Lewis, and the Angels gained one Zack Greinke. The worst-case scenario for the first-place team in the AL West. Right now, Texas' ideal rotation consists of Matt Harrison, whichever version of Yu Darvish chooses to show up, Roy Oswalt's balky back, the rehabbing Neftali Feliz, and Derek Holland. That doesn't come close to sniffing Weaver-Wilson-Greinke-Haren, and it's not better than what Oakland currently has, either. Without a trade of their own (Josh Johnson? James Shields?) the Rangers are in danger of losing the AL West to the Angels.

The Athletics, White Sox, Orioles, Rays, Red Sox, Indians, etc: the rest of the American League wild card contenders are probably dismayed by the Greinke trade, because the Angels have just sewn up one of their two available playoff spots. If any of these teams has an inside track on that last berth, it's the White Sox. In the last month of the season, when the AL East is pummeling itself and the A's are playing the Angels and Rangers, the White Sox get to feast on the weak AL Central. Look for Chicago to act on that advantage and make a trade or two before Tuesday's deadline.