Sunday, March 24, 2013

Winners and Losers After One Week of Madness

Winner: Florida Gulf Coast. It's not just about the school's two comfortable wins over two elite defensive teams. It's not just about being the first 15-seed to reach the Sweet Sixteen. What's truly shocking about the Florida Gulf Coast Eagles is the way they've won -- with brazen swagger, high-flying dunks, excessive sideline celebrations, and jaw-dropping alley-oops. They're like a carnival version of the 2011 VCU Rams. They're fun as heck. Best of all, Florida Gulf Coast University now owns the best winning percentage (2-0!) in NCAA tournament history, at least for a few more days. This is what March is about -- desperately rooting for a school that, just last week, no one even knew existed.

Loser: The Mountain West Conference. This was supposed to be the year that the MWC (ranked as the nation's best conference according to the RPI) finally broke out in the tournament. Instead, the league flopped big-time. New Mexico was the main culprit thanks to a mind-numbing loss to a Harvard team that had literally never won a tournament game before. Fifth-seeded UNLV, easily one of the ten most talented squads in the country, laid an egg against Cal in the first round. Boise State looked mostly helpless in a play-in game loss to La Salle. San Diego State could've reached the Sweet Sixteen on Sunday just by beating a 15-seed, but fell prey to the Florida Gulf Coast Dunk Factory. Colorado State at least won a game before being served to the Louisville Cardinals like a sacrificial lamb. It's not fair to make broad statements about an entire conference based on one year, but this has been going on for a while. In its entire history, the Mountain West is now something like 6-30 against teams from Power Six conferences in the NCAA tournament. That's ... not so good.

Winner: The Atlantic 10 Conference. Like the MWC, the Atlantic 10 got five teams into the tournament, prompting high expectations. And for the most part, the league has had an impressive showing. Saint Louis, VCU, and Butler all cruised in their opening-round games against double-digit seeds (a stark contrast to what New Mexico and UNLV did) before losing to tough opponents in the next round. Temple "upset" a more talented N.C. State team before giving Indiana a serious scare. And out of all of them, La Salle advanced to the Sweet Sixteen by winning a play-in game (against, fittingly, Boise State of the underachieving MWC) before beating Kansas State and Ole Miss. Unfortunately the conference is losing most of its best teams to realignment next year. But kudos for an excellent swan song.

Loser: Gonzaga. The Zags haven't advanced past the Sweet Sixteen since their first magical run in 1999. This was going to be the year they finally performed up to the high standard they've set for themselves. The road was wide-open thanks to the early eliminations of New Mexico, Kansas State, and Wisconsin in the West Region. But instead they couldn't advance past Wichita State in the Round of 32. And it's not like they played poorly. Here are the results of Wichita State's final handful of possessions, based on ESPN's play-by-play record, starting at about the six-minute mark in the second half when Gonzaga was up by seven:
6:05 Tekele Cotton made Three Point Jumper.
5:10 Cleanthony Early made Three Point Jumper.
4:23 Ron Baker made Three Point Jumper.
3:30 Carl Hall made Jumper.
3:10 Ron Baker made 2 Free Throws.
2:55 Ron Baker made Three Point Jumper.
1:32 Fred VanVleet made Three Point Jumper.
That comes out to 19 points on seven possessions. The Shockers turned a seven-point deficit into a five-point lead thank to some ridiculously-hot shooting (14-of-28 from long range in the whole game) by a team that doesn't even shoot three-pointers well. The Zags didn't lose this game. Wichita State grabbed it and refused to let go. Despite this disappointing finish, Gonzaga's accomplishments this year hopefully won't be forgotten.

Winner: Clutch guard play. The first week of the tournament went by without any real buzzer-beaters. There were still some big-time shots made on last-minute possessions, most notably Aaron Craft's three-pointer that rescued Ohio State against Iowa State. Honorable mentions awarded to Vander Blue's final-second go-ahead layup for Marquette against Davidson, Victor Oladipo's top-of-the-key jumper to clinch Indiana's win over Temple, Shane Larkin's three-point dagger for Miami against Illinois, and Tyrone Garland's layup against Ole Miss to improbably send La Salle to the Sweet Sixteen.

Loser: Any program with a poor tournament reputation. Once you get branded as a March underachiever, it becomes almost impossible to change that perception. Those snake-bitten schools did nothing to help themselves in 2013. Pittsburgh, for instance, still can't seem to shake its bad first-round mojo after a loss to Wichita State. Same goes for Notre Dame. Belmont always gets hyped as a sleeper Cinderella but never comes through. UNLV has lost in the Round of 64 in four consecutive years. Georgetown might be the worst culprit: after their loss to Florida Gulf Coast, the Hoyas have now lost five straight tournament games to double-digit seeds. These guys have got some work to do.

Winner: The road ahead for Florida and Ohio State. Of the top eight seeds in the Midwest and East Regions, seven survived to the Sweet Sixteen. Those two brackets are still loaded with landmines. But upsets in the West and South have given two programs an excellent chance of reaching the Final Four. One is Florida; thanks to other circumstances, the Gators can reach the Elite Eight just by beating a 14-seed, an 11-seed, and a 15-seed. That would be one of the easiest routes to a regional final ever -- assuming they get past the Florida Gulf Coast juggernaut, that is. Ohio State might be in an even better position. If the Buckeyes beat Arizona next week, their Elite Eight matchup would be against either Wichita State or La Salle. Pretty sweet deal.

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