It's That Time of Year Again

"Did the Oakland Athletics win the World Series? No? Aha, 'Moneyball' has failed yet again!"

Some people actually think like this, including a national columnist for CBS Sports named Danny Knobler, who gave a recent article this gem of a title: "Whether the Giants or Tigers win, Moneyball loses" (this was a few days ago, when the World Series was still in doubt). Click here for a link, if you have sadistic tendencies and wish to read the whole thing (I've just taken relevant excerpts). It goes on to say:

"Two games in, we don't yet have a winner of this World Series, but we already have a loser. It's not the Tigers (yet, anyway). It's Moneyball. If the Giants continue this fun run they're on, Moneyball loses, because if there's one team in the game that's more old school and less Moneyball than anyone else, it's the Giants. Unless it's the Tigers. If the Tigers become the first team since the 1996 Yankees to overcome a two games to none deficit (since then, eight teams have tried but failed), then Moneyball loses, too. And don't think some defenders of old-school scouting aren't watching and celebrating."

There are so very many things wrong with these statements, the most fundamental of which is drawing any kind of meaningful conclusions from the World Series participants. What if the A's make the World Series next year? Would that instantly validate 'Moneyball' strategies as the only way to build a baseball team? No! The playoffs are unequivocally, preposterously random. The Giants wouldn't have gotten to the Series without winning six straight elimination games, four of which were on the road. One loss in those six games and they never make it. The Tigers wouldn't have gotten there without playing in a god-awful division; they didn't even have one of the 10 best records in baseball. If you want to draw conclusions about "right" or "wrong" ways to build baseball teams, use the larger sample size of regular season results. Saying that 'Moneyball' doesn't work because "anti-Moneyball" teams got to the World Series in one random year is like saying that Duke and UConn are bad basketball programs because they lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last year.

Now, we get to the really juicy stuff:

"For almost a decade now, ever since the Michael Lewis book that sold plenty of copies and sold plenty of fans on the idea that the A's won games because of a better use of computers, the old school/new school debate has been baseball's hottest."

Is that the worst sentence ever written? I mean...it's certainly up there, right? If you read/saw Moneyball and came away from that book/movie and thought it was about "how the A's won games because of a better use of computers"...man, I don't even know.

For the rest of this article, Knobler operates under the premise that Moneyball was about a baseball team eschewing old-school scouts in favor of computers and advanced statistics. In a micro sense, that's true. But really, that premise is wrong. The Moneyball philosophy was about a low-payroll team trying to find market inefficiencies in order to field a competitive roster. At the time, Beane's scouts were overvaluing certain attributes (speed, defense, bunting) and undervaluing others ("bad-body" athletes, on-base skills, advanced statistics). Beane responded accordingly. As markets shifted to compensate, those inefficiencies changed over time. The landscape is completely different today! Billy Beane's team in 2012 was built on speed and defense, skills he might have scoffed at a decade ago! But writers like Knobler can't seem to understand that Beane and other progressive front offices aren't ideologically wedded to stuff like sabermetrics and on-base percentage. Those were tools used in the execution of a broader strategy, NOT the strategy itself. The tools have changed. Why am I wasting my time.

"The divide within the game never was as great as it was portrayed. The A's and other 'Moneyball teams' rely on scouting (without it, the A's never sign Yoenis Cespedes). The Tigers and Giants and other 'old-school' teams hire smart young guys who can analyze the numbers coming out of their computers."

Yes! Exactly! This is reasonable! Every front office uses a variety of different methods, ranging all across the "Baseball Ideas" spectrum. Because it would be silly not to use as many strategies to gather as much information as possible. Why does the rest of this article exist, then?

"But if it's not black and white, there are quite a few variations of gray, with the Tigers and Giants at one end of the scale and Moneyball as a concept at the other."

Knobler: "So the divide within the game was exaggerated, a balance of ideas exists, and it's not black-and-white." [realizes he now has nothing more to say and his article is effectively over] "Oh no wait, it's actually very polarizing, and let me explain why..."

"While the Tigers front office uses statistics as part of the evaluation process, 'it's not going to make the decision for us,' Dombrowski said. 'For some teams, it does.'

Giants general manager Brian Sabean said the same thing. The Giants front office wants all the information it can get, but would never make or reject a possible deal simply because of something they saw in the numbers."

There's two ways of looking at these comments.
1. Who in the heck bases their decision-making solely on numbers?
2. Who in the heck never uses numbers in their decision-making?

There obviously has to be a balance between statistics and scouting in front offices, a balance that Knobler has already admitted exists, yet ignores. Suggesting that executives in 'Moneyball' front offices are robots who pour data into Excel spreadsheets and make their decisions based on the numbers their computers spit out is preposterous. It's a straw man argument. I'm surprised that Dombrowski is playing along with this crap. Then again, this is the same guy who decided it would be a great idea if he could get Delmon Young to be his DH and hit in the 5-hole.

"Most decisions both these teams make come out of a strong belief about a player by one scout or another.

'You can't eliminate the human element of the game,' said Scott Reid, who has long been in charge of Dombrowski's pro scouting staff."

Because if it were up to Billy Beane, baseball wouldn't have a human element. It wouldn't even be a human game. Ideally, it wouldn't be "played" so much as "simulated" between opposing computer programs that could reduce the entire season to 0.074 seconds, with the "winner" receiving some terse congratulatory handshakes before retiring to his mother's basement for the winter.

"Scott Reid has worked with Dombrowski for 20 years. Dick Tidrow has been with Sabean for nearly that long, and Paul Turco has been with him even longer. They're exactly the type of guys who were most offended by the portrayal of scouts in Moneyball."

That's so weird, because Hollywood is usually so good about portraying real-life people and events with stunning accuracy.

"They're exactly the type of guys who are most satisfied to see a 2012 World Series involving two teams that lean the other way. 'We've always tried to stay up with the times,' Reid said. 'The sabermetric stuff has been great for the game. It's great for the fans. But it's information based on past performance. It does sometimes verify what your eyes and your scouting people are seeing.'

Ohmygod ohmygod ohmygod. "Sabermetric stuff"--or, "numbers," to the rest of us nerds--DOES verify what your eyes are seeing. That's what numbers do. That's why they exist. To quantify and record what our eyes see, because our minds can't remember every single data point. Eyewitness testimony absolutely has its uses. It's also unreliable because its subject to the whims and biases and other shortcomings of the brain. Numbers attempt to remove that human flaw and just record facts. But apparently they're worthless because all they're based on is "past performance." What good could they possibly do?!

"But when there are conflicts, the Tigers and Giants are more likely to trust their eyes and their scouts.

This year, the eyes are winning."

No, my eyes lost. They had to read this garbage.

Diamondbacks Make a Trade, Confuse People

Lots of baseball players had miserable seasons in 2012. Immediately, Michael Young, Jeff Francoeur, Ricky Romero, and the Boston Red Sox come to mind. But no one had a rougher season than Heath Bell. The Miami Marlins gave him a $27 million contract to serve as their closer. By mid-May, Bell had blown four of his seven save opportunities, his ERA was hovering around 10.00, and he was temporarily demoted from the closer role six weeks into a three-year contract. He permanently lost his job as closer in July. He finished 2012 with an ERA of 5.09. As a relief pitcher. At the end of the season, Marlins manager Ozzie Guillen actually went on the radio and said flat-out that he had lost respect for Bell as a person. According to a report, a few Marlins played that radio interview on full volume in the team clubhouse so that Bell could hear his manager call him out in front of the entire team. One of the more tragic and awkward things you'll see in baseball.

So naturally, the Arizona Diamondbacks thought it would be a swell idea to trade for Heath Bell.

Granted, it's not an awful idea. There's hope (somewhere, I guess) that Bell will find himself again once the Marlins stink has worn off. Miami is helping out by kicking in $8 million of the $21 million still owed to Bell (this is how desperate they are to ship Bell out of town). And it's not like the D'Backs gave up anything of note to acquire the embattled closer. But Bell's strikeout-to-walk ratio has declined for three straight seasons, and he's 35 years old. $13 million over two years seems like a lot of money to gamble on a middle reliever in his mid-30's coming off an embarrassing season. So...meh. There have been better deals, there have been worse deals.

Unfortunately, this wasn't the only component of Arizona's trade.

It was actually a three-team swap, with the Oakland Athletics taking part. The A's sent two players to the Diamondbacks: infielder Cliff Pennington and minor leaguer Yordy Cabrera (basically a warm body). The D'Backs then sent Cabrera to Miami for Bell and the $8 million. In exchange for Pennington and Cabrera, the D'Backs sent Chris Young to Oakland.

Heath Bell, Cliff Pennington, Yordy Cabrera, Chris Young. Embattled 35-year old reliever, light-hitting utility infielder, no-name minor leaguer, former-All Star center-fielder. One of these things is not like the other.

Chris Young is 29 years old. For his career, he has averaged 20 home runs and 20 steals per season while playing solid defense in center field. Regardless of his low batting averages (career .249 hitter) and high strikeout totals, Young is a valuable player with that coveted power-speed combination at a premium defensive position.

Why did the Diamondbacks trade away a solid everyday center-fielder for a near-replacement-level infielder and an expensive, potentially-awful middle reliever? Because Arizona had too many outfielders on the roster; someone had to go, they decided. But that doesn't explain or justify the meager return for Young. The D'Backs didn't even save money in the deal: they moved around $10 million off the books by trading away Young, which was negated by taking on Bell's $13 million. Sure, the Diamondbacks may be able to replace Young's production from within; the failure was flipping him for so little in return without even saving money. The fact that this trade was finalized so early in the trading season suggests that Arizona didn't exactly shop Young around the league to find the best offer before pulling the trigger with the A's and Marlins.

From Oakland's perspective, the trade is a smashing success. Cliff Pennington can be replaced in the middle infield, probably by Stephen Drew, who's a better player anyway. Chris Young perfectly fits Oakland's new organizational philosophy of pursuing players with power, speed, and defense. Furthermore, there's reason to believe Young can improve on his subpar 2012. He was hitting a scorching .410/.500/.897 in April before colliding with an outfield wall and possibly separating his shoulder, usually a three-month injury. Young surprisingly returned to the lineup after just a month's absence and proceeded to slump to a .143 average until the All-Star Break. From the All-Star Break until the end of the season, Young bounced back to a .261/.327/.471 line. It seems fair to hypothesize that his season numbers were pulled down by that nagging shoulder injury. He'll be fine.

Plus, there's no long-term risk for Oakland. Young will cost $8 million in 2013. If he has a good season, the A's can exercise a 2014 option for $11 million. If he's terrible, they can opt out of the contract with a $1.5 million buyout. The downside is limited to one season and the potential benefit could extend into 2014. It's a nice example of Oakland's willingness to spend some money in the wake of its surprising playoff appearance.

Between Young, Coco Crisp, Yoenis Cespedes, Josh Reddick, and Seth Smith, the A's now have five starting-caliber outfielders on the roster. The Diamondbacks had similar outfield depth, but chose to trade it away to place a $13 million bet on Heath Bell. That difference in front office decision-making is one of the reasons why the Diamondbacks are coming off a .500 season while the Athletics won the best division in baseball on a shoestring budget.

Twitter Reacts To What Happened Last Night

Every once in a while, baseball has one of THOSE nights. Last year, it was Game 162, and the David Freese Game in the World Series. This year, it was last night. Because it is impossible to capture with words what happened in the wee hours of Wednesday night and Thursday morning, here are some select real-time reactions from Twitter that do a much better job of showcasing raw emotion and shock than postgame recaps or SportsCenter segments.

First: Orioles-Yankees, Game 3, around midnight.

Just keep it tied until Raul bats again.
— Mike Axisa (@mikeaxisa) October 11, 2012

RAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL
— Mike Axisa (@mikeaxisa) October 11, 2012

Oh my God.
— David Cameron (@DCameronFG) October 11, 2012

RAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAUL
— Mike Axisa (@mikeaxisa) October 11, 2012

Move over David Freese.
— David Cameron (@DCameronFG) October 11, 2012

RAUAHAHAHAHA
— Mike Axisa (@mikeaxisa) October 11, 2012

I just...Raul Ibanez...I...what?...Raul Ibanez.
— Paul Swydan (@Swydan) October 11, 2012

I am dead. I just died.
— Craig Calcaterra (@craigcalcaterra) October 11, 2012

+.827 WPA. Raul Ibanez just had the fifth biggest playoff game in baseball history. With two at-bats.
— Mike Axisa (@mikeaxisa) October 11, 2012

I hate everything, but especially Raul Ibanez
— Jonathan Bernhardt (@jonbernhardt) October 11, 2012

So cool! #Raul
— Phil Hughes (@PhilHughes65) October 11, 2012

The best part is Raul just trotting to first, no smile or anything, like "Yeah, I know, what of it?"
— Bloggie McBlogger (@yagottagotomo) October 11, 2012

Raul Ibanez hit .197 with no homers against lefthanders in the regular season.
— Adam Ronis (@AdamRonis) October 11, 2012

Before 5 minutes ago, Raul Ibanez hasn't hit a HR off a lefty since July 26, 2011. And even that one was off Barry Zito..
— Bret Sayre (@dynastyguru) October 11, 2012

Baseball is so weird.
— Productive Outs (@ProductiveOuts) October 11, 2012

Ibanez becomes 1st player in postseason history w/2 HR in a game he didn't start
— Alex Speier (@alexspeier) October 11, 2012

Orioles 0-3 in extra innings against the Yankees, 16-0 in extra innings against everyone else
— Jeff Sullivan (@LookoutLanding) October 11, 2012

So the Yanks have 2 wins all year when trailing after 7, and in both, Ibanez had both the game-tying AND game-winning hits.
— Tristan H. Cockcroft (@SultanofStat) October 11, 2012

Kuroda's best quotation of the year. Said Ibanez's performance seemed like it was something out of "a cartoon."
— Jack Curry (@JackCurryYES) October 11, 2012

Nick Swisher could be heard from the shower yelling "EXCITEMENT OVERLOADDDDD!!!!"
— Daniel Barbarisi (@DanBarbarisi) October 11, 2012

Orioles: "Seriously? Raul Ibanez? That doesn't make any sen-" /look in mirror "oh right"
— Jeff Sullivan (@LookoutLanding) October 11, 2012

One to ring to Raul them all.
— Matt Sussman (@suss2hyphens) October 11, 2012

Second: Tigers-Athletics, Game 4, around 1 A.M.

Can the A's pinch-hit Raul Ibanez here? Not totally sure of how baseball rules work.
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) October 11, 2012

! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
— King Kaufman (@king_kaufman) October 11, 2012

AND THERE WILL BE A GAME FIVE
— The Outside Corner (@Outside_Corner) October 11, 2012

SWEEEEEET MOTHER OF GOD
— Jason Wojciechowski (@jlwoj) October 11, 2012

Coco Crisp! Redemption!
— Daniel Moroz (@CamdenCrazies) October 11, 2012

Bob Melvin > Philip Seymour Hoffman
— SportsPickle (@sportspickle) October 11, 2012

joke's on you guys, Valverde still has a dance for this
— Jeff Sullivan (@LookoutLanding) October 11, 2012

The American League is batting 1.000 for walk-offs tonight.
— Mike Baumann (@MJ_Baumann) October 11, 2012

God I love this game.
— Mike Axisa (@mikeaxisa) October 11, 2012

That was fun. Anyone know if there's a game tomorrow? <checks schedule> HELL YEAH
— Rany Jazayerli (@jazayerli) October 11, 2012

Four more games on Thursday, but they'll have to work hard to top this.

How They Did It: The 2012 Oakland Athletics

While everyone's attention was focused on Baltimore's shocking ascension in the East, the Athletics were busy making an even-more-stunning push in the West. No one expected anything of Oakland thanks to who they were chasing in their division: the high-payroll and big-expectation teams in Los Angeles and Texas. Despite being 13 games back at one point in June, the A's hosted a walk-off win party in July, pulled to within five games with nine to play, and swept the Rangers in the final series of the season to win the AL West title. Where did this come from?

1. Pitching Depth: Especially young pitching depth. The A's had three veteran starters, but Brett Anderson only made six starts due to injury, Brandon McCarthy was hit in the head by a line drive, and Bartolo Colon was suspended for PED use. So during the final month of the season, Oakland surpassed Texas with a five-man rookie rotation: offseason trade acquisitions Tommy Milone and Jarrod Parker, 29-year-old journeyman Travis Blackley, and out-of-nowhere minor league studs A.J. Griffin and Dan Straily. Helped by Oakland Coliseum's friendly dimensions, none of those starters posted an ERA over 4.00. Not many organizations have five rookie starters good enough to pitch in the majors, let alone lead a club to the playoffs.

2. Strong Bullpen: In the final series against Texas, the A's knew exactly what their formula was once they got a lead: their trio of bullpen aces. The first was Sean Doolittle, a hard-throwing lefty who was a minor league first baseman this time last year. The second was Ryan Cook, another rookie acquired over the offseason who was briefly Oakland's closer and put up a 2.09 ERA. And the ninth belonged to Grant Balfour, the elder statesman of the group (34 years old) who locked down all of Oakland's key victories. The trio protected late leads in all three games against the Rangers.

3. Platooning Offense: Stuck in a massive ballpark without the funds to acquire big-money power hitters, the A's turned to a more efficient method of improving the offense: platooning. Timeshares existed at first base (Chris Carter and Brandon Moss), DH (Johnny Gomes and Seth Smith), and catcher (Derek Norris and George Kottaras). The A's were thus able to make up for their lack of stars by getting the best possible production out of each player while hiding their weaknesses.

4. Speed and Power: The Athletics set an American League record for most team strikeouts. But they made up for their collective failure to put the ball in play by staying aggressive on the basepaths and hitting the ball out of the park. Eight different A's players hit double-digit home runs (led by Josh Reddick's 32), and five stole double-digit bases (led by Coco Crisp's 39). Yoenis Cespedes, signed as a free agent out of Cuba, did both, hitting 23 homers and stealing 16 bases.

5. Good Defense: One of the things that really helped Oakland's young pitching staff was the solid defense behind them. Speedsters Coco Crisp and Yoenis Cespedes roamed the outfield, along with Josh Reddick, who kept opposing baserunners honest with one of the best arms in baseball. The infield defense was questionable for much of the season, but then the A's traded for Stephen Drew. He plugged a hole at shortstop and allowed the incumbent, Cliff Pennington, to move over to second, thus improving at both positions.

As unlikely as the success of the Orioles was, they at least had a strong foundation to work with: Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, J.J. Hardy, and so forth. The A's had nothing: they actually traded away their foundation prior to the season when they dealt five pitchers, including the closer and two staff aces, for a flock of faceless unproven rookies.

Yet one huge reason for Oakland's rise was the instant success of those unproven rookies. In exchange for the five pitchers they dealt away, the A's received their Game 1 and Game 2 playoff starters, their team leader in home runs, half of their DH and catcher platoons, and their setup man. It's crazy to think that so many minor leaguers--who are usually no more than lottery tickets--could all perform so highly for a division champion so quickly. The A's made sure to maximize their return in all their trades.

The second important reason for the A's success was their minor league depth, which provided contingency plans when certain things weren't working out. Starting first baseman Daric Barton has one home run? He was replaced by career minor leaguers Brandon Moss and Chris Carter, who combined to hit 37. Starting catcher Kurt Suzuki is hitting .218? He was traded to the Nationals mid-summer and replaced by disciplined minor leaguer Derek Norris. Jemile Weeks isn't hitting at second base? The A's had the depth to acquire Stephen Drew and shore up the middle infield. No one's hitting at third base? Josh Donaldson was summoned from Triple-A in August, and he hit .290 the rest of the way. Injuries strike the rotation? Up from the minors came Dan Straily and A.J. Griffin and Travis Blackley, all of whom performed admirably. The A's weren't stuck with under-performing players because they had the depth to either replace them from within or make a trade. That ability to adjust on the fly and make up for the shortcomings of a low payroll proved instrumental to Oakland's unlikely AL West title.

Oakland's Formula: Young pitching depth, dominant bullpen, and a platooning lineup built on speed, power, and defense, achieved through smart trades and a deep minor league system.

Detroit's Formula: Good starting pitching and an elite top of the lineup, achieved through the acquisition of elite players by any means.

San Francisco's Formula: Healthy starting pitching, dominant bullpen, and a lineup built for home-field advantage achieved through strong pitching development and the revitalization of declining veterans' careers.

Washington's Formula: Healthy and elite starting pitching, dominant bullpen, and balanced lineup achieved through homegrown talent and superb talent evaluation.

Cincinnati's Formula: Healthy starting pitching, dominant bullpen, and balanced lineup achieved through homegrown talent and low payroll.

The Oakland A's, Man

Brandon Inge is a Real American

On Saturday night, Oakland Athletics third baseman Brandon Inge dove to his right trying to corral a ground ball. He was unable to make the throw to first base.

Obviously hurt on the play, Inge stood up, hunched over, tugging on his left wrist. But he stayed in the game.

As it turns out, Inge actually dislocated his shoulder on the play. He simply re-set it himself on the field.

An inning later, he won the game with a two-run single.

The Numbers Would Seem to Contradict That

The Oakland Athletics showcased their impressive pitching depth on Friday night by calling up Dan Straily from Triple-A to make his first major league start. Straily is the A's best prospect, and one of the top minor league performers of the season.

The most important fact pertaining to Straily is that he is the king of the strikeout. He has 180 of them; no one else, in the majors or the minors, has more. And they've come in only 144.1 innings! He's basically striking out batters at a rate equaled only by Stephen Strasburg among all starting pitchers in the land.

So naturally, Harold Reynolds of MLB Network had this to say about Straily during his debut:

"I don't think he has that much strikeout stuff."

Oakland A's Score For First Time Since Tuesday

A parade has been scheduled.

Jon Heyman Doesn't Get It

Jon Heyman, Self-Proclaimed Baseball Insider, unleashed this unmercifully ignorant Tweet tonight:

the #moneyball a's lead AL w/ 14 steals & are second worst in obp at .277 (to seattle, thanks to humber's perfecto)

For (what seems like) the one-billionth time: Moneyball is not about on-base percentage.

Not. About. On-base percentage.

Moneyball is about exploiting market inefficiencies. At the time--a good ten years ago, mind you--on-base percentage happened to be an inefficiency that the A's pursued. At the expense of things like speed and defense, which some felt were overvalued (as seen in the Johnny Damon contract, among others).

Believe it or not, Jon: the market has changed since 2002.

On-base percentage is definitely fairly valued now. Players like Adam Dunn have finally been recognized, and paid, for the value they provide (though a bit too late in Dunn's case).

Accordingly, the A's have actually swung in the opposite direction, towards speed and defense, sometimes even at the expense of OBP (as seen in their second-to-last ranking in that category). Heck, last offseason they tried to throw money at Adrian Beltre, an accomplished OBP hole but an elite defender at third. The Rays made the same philosophical transition a few years back--they consistently save the most defensive runs in the majors each year, and look how they're doing. 

Also, Jon, if you would take a moment to examine Oakland's roster, you'd quickly realize what the A's are aiming for. Their starting lineup features players like: Kurt Suzuki, Daric Barton, Cliff Pennington, Jemile "Brother of Rickie" Weeks, Josh Reddick, Coco Crisp, etc. All of those players are either good defenders and/or fast. Most all are ridiculously cheap, and are all the A's can afford right now. None are OBP specialists.

It is quite incorrect to imply that A) the A's worship at the feet of the All-Powerful OBP Deity and B) that Moneyball is equivalent to OBP in any way.

It's even more incorrect to Tweet about it snidely.

MLB Season Preview: Oakland Athletics

Another round of discouraging trades leaves the Athletics with little hope for 2012. That doesn't mean they're not an interesting team, though.

Shown here is the popular breakfast cereal Coco Crisp,
cleverly masquerading as the left fielder of the Oakland A's.

Offense: At least half of the A's lineup is composed of guys getting their first chance at a starting job in the big leagues. You know that's the case when the offense's most proven commodity is Coco Crisp. The other 'established' guys, Cliff Pennington and Kurt Suzuki, are all-glove, no-bat types. And the A's don't even really have a third baseman. Still, there are some intriguing players to follow. Brandon Allen and Josh Reddick, at first and right field respectively, have each shown glimpses of potential in the past. Atop the lineup, Jemile Weeks hit .303 and stole 22 bases in his 97-game debut last season. Cleanup hitter Seth Smith has to transition from Coors Field to the cavernous Coliseum, but he was always an underrated player in Colorado (career line of .275/.348/.485). The ultimate wild cards are center fielder Yoenis Cespedes, an uber-toolsy Cuban import whose bold workout video went viral, and Manny Ramirez, who will attempt a comeback after serving his 50-game suspension. No, the A's offense may not be very good. But it sure is...quirky.

Bartolo Colon: Perfectly Spherical.

Pitching: The newest troika of A's aces was supposed to be Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, and Brett Anderson. Not for long though: Cahill is in Arizona, Gonzalez is in Washington, and Anderson is recovering from last year's Tommy John surgery. Dallas Braden is still around, but he's dealing with a shoulder injury. So Oakland's best option is Brandon McCarthy, a former top prospect who struggled for years with health and unfavorable venues before finally breaking out with a 3.22 ERA in 2011. Bartolo Colon, brought in as a nice scrap-heap signing, should benefit greatly from pitching half his games in the Coliseum. And that's it for the established big leaguers. Tyson Ross missed most of last season. Minor leaguer Tom Milone, acquired in the Gonzalez trade, doesn't have much experience either but boasts pinpoint control. The fifth starter will either be Jarrod Parker, a highly regarded prospect obtained in the Cahill trade, or something called Graham Godfrey (???). Like the rotation, the bullpen is short on known quantities following the trade of Andrew Bailey: it's Grant Balfour, Brian Fuentes, and then whatever sticks.

Yoenis Cespedes is the first-ever YouTube sensation to
be guaranteed $36 million from a professional sports team.

Breakout Candidates: The player on the roster with the most obvious raw potential is Yoenis Cespedes. The A's gave him a big contract and obviously think he can play right away; he viciously clubbed a homer in his second big league game. Jemile Weeks can hit for average and become one of the game's best base-stealers if he improves his efficiency. In the rotation, both Milone and Parker have the potential to develop into fine starters if given the innings.

3 Key Questions: Can McCarthy and Colon repeat last year's unexpected (nay, shocking) success? Is Cespedes the real deal? And which of the young players acquired in the offseason's trades will become big league contributors?

Best Case Scenario: The goofy Cespedes/Manny combination raises attendance figures, Brandon Allen hits 30 homers, the new wave of young pitching impresses, the San Jose territorial dispute with the Giants is resolved, and the A's finish in third place with a bright future ahead.

Worst Case Scenario: Cespedes strikes out 180 times, Manny tests positive again (then promptly re-retires), the offense is dismal, McCarthy gets hurt, the fans stop showing up when they realize their best players are named Coco and Colon, and the A's finish last with no end to the losing cycle in sight.

Predicted Finish: Much like the Mariners, the A's roster has upside even though there's no hope of competing with the Rangers and Angels. Oakland finishes last behind Seattle, but the season features plenty of entertaining bright spots.