The East is basically divided into two stratospheres. The first contains Indiana and Miami, the two best teams in the region. The second is made up of everybody else, and they're all basically on the same plane. The "gap" between, say, #5 UNLV and #12 California is minuscule despite the seeding difference. So an Indiana-Miami regional final seems inevitable -- but the rest of the bracket? Wide open and totally unpredictable. Some scattered thoughts on picking this region:
1. The most over-seeded team in the tournament this year, by far, is Marquette. The Golden Eagles did win a share of the Big East title, which is probably why the Selection Committee saw fit to award them a #3 seed. Still, their only significant win away from home all year was an overtime victory at Pitt two months ago. They don't have a dominant player and can't shoot three-pointers. Plus, they're matched up against a red-hot, well-coached Davidson team that's a lot better than the average 14-seed. 3-seeds don't lose in the first round very often, but Marquette is closer to a 5-seed. And even if the Golden Eagles win, they draw either Butler or Bucknell in the Round of 32. Marquette isn't doing much damage this year.
2. A 12-seed has beaten a 5-seed in virtually every tournament for the last quarter-century. Those are the most popular upset picks and usually they jump right off the page. This year, they're actually tough to find. Most of the 5-seeds are excellent teams (Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, VCU). The one exception is UNLV in this region. The Rebels look vulnerable against #12 California, for more reasons than anyone should need. First of all, there's no way the Rebels deserved a 5-seed. Like Marquette, they hardly did anything away from home. That's a particular problem in this first-round game, which is taking place in San Jose, a virtual home game for Cal. Then, consider that 5-seeds from non-Power-Six conferences are particularly vulnerable to early upsets (like last year, when Temple and Wichita State were felled in the first round), especially when they face 12-seeds that are from a Power Six conference, like Cal. And the Mountain West Conference's historical record in the NCAA tournament is quite poor. If a 12-over-5 upset is going to happen, all signs point to Cal-over-UNLV as the likeliest possibility.
3. Of all the double-digit seeds in the tournament, #11 Bucknell has one of the best shots at reaching the Sweet Sixteen despite drawing Butler in the first round. The Bison have already played tough competition this season, almost winning at Missouri, and they have a dominant frontcourt presence in Mike Muscala. If they advance, their next opponent could be the overrated Marquette -- or maybe we get a Bucknell-vs-Davidson showdown with the Sweet Sixteen on the line?
4. There's no other way to say this: N.C. State vs. Temple is going to be awesome. There will be many shots. There will be no defense. There will be many points. Yes please.
5. At the end of the day, this region still has to come down to Indiana and Miami, right? Sure, there's a chance Syracuse's zone stops Indiana cold, and there's a chance Illinois shoots Miami right out of the gym. But the Hoosiers and Hurricanes are head-and-shoulders above everybody else in this bracket. Both have some truly breathtaking basketball talents. If they do meet in the regional final, chances are that game would be a memorable classic.
So, What Happens? Utter chaos, that's what happens. Marquette doesn't get to the Sweet Sixteen, but a double-digit seed does. UNLV goes down to Cal. Even Montana puts a scare into Syracuse (though the Orange do survive until the second weekend). Once the dust settles, Indiana and Miami are the last ones standing, and Victor Oladipo shuts down Shane Larkin as the Hoosiers advance to the Final Four.
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