Thirteen expert analysts have revealed their Final Four picks on ESPN.com, from Jay Bilas to Jay Williams. They overwhelmingly prefer Louisville coming out of the Midwest, either Gonzaga or Ohio State from the West, and either Indiana or Miami from the East. As for the South? That's where the consensus breaks down. Each of the region's top five seeds were picked at least once; the #1 seed, Kansas, got as much support as the #5 seed, VCU. With the teams at the top bunched so closely together in quality, the South really is nothing more than a toss-up. Some scattered thoughts on picking this region:
1. The excellence at the top of the bracket really distracts from how unappealing the lower seeds are. #6 UCLA is playing without Jordan Adams; even with him, the Bruins were an up-and-down team at best. The four participants in the 8/9 and 7/10 games (Villanova, North Carolina, San Diego State, and Oklahoma) are all deeply flawed, and (with the exception of North Carolina) fairly bland. #11 Minnesota is the most ice-cold team in the entire tournament. And #12 Akron would have had excellent Cinderella potential ... before losing their point guard for the season. For the most part, the lower seeds in the South have little to offer.
2. The one exception, however, is thirteen-seed South Dakota State. Their star guard Nate Wolters (averaging 22.7 points per game) is a borderline NBA prospect who leads a high-scoring offense. If the Jackrabbits were going up against a legitimate defense in the first round, there'd be little to no chance of an upset. But they're facing Michigan. Not only do the Wolverines care a lot more about scoring than defending; they also lost to a #13 seed just last year (Ohio). Anything could happen if the game descends into a jump-shooting contest. While this potential upset isn't one of the more likely ones, the mere possibility of it happening should strike fear into the hearts of those picking Michigan to make a deep run.
3. One of the teams rooting hard for South Dakota State to pull off the shocker is VCU. If the fifth-seeded Rams advance against Akron, they'd hypothetically match up against Michigan, a team that rarely commits turnovers thanks to the hyper-efficient Trey Burke. VCU needs to force turnovers to win and might not be able to squeeze them out of Michigan. But if the Rams do somehow sneak their way into the Sweet Sixteen, their pressure defense would match up perfectly against Kansas. The Jayhawks don't have a reliable ballhandler. It's easy to picture Elijah Johnson and Naadir Tharpe getting burned repeatedly by VCU's press. Ironically, Kansas would probably rather take its chances against Trey Burke and Michigan's offense. That says a lot about the importance of matchups in this tournament.
4. There is no more frustrating game to pick in the first round than UCLA versus Minnesota. Despite being the 11-seed, Minnesota is actually favored to win. The Bruins will be at a massive disadvantage on the boards and freshman Jordan Adams is out for the tournament thanks to an injury sustained last week. Minnesota isn't exactly a lock though -- the Golden Gophers have lost eleven of their past sixteen games, including three in a row to Nebraska, Purdue, and Illinois. Thankfully, the winner here is going to get clobbered by Florida so we won't be subject to either one much longer.
5. It would be a huge shock if #2 seed Georgetown and #3 seed Florida don't meet for a chance to go to the Elite Eight. Both are trying to put an end to the negative narratives that have come to define them. Georgetown goes through long stretches of offensive futility and has drastically underperformed in recent tournaments. Florida has been miserable in crucial late-game situations, contributing to their 0-6 record in games decided by six points or less. At some point, Georgetown is going to have to actually score points and Florida is going to have to actually win a close game.
So, What Happens? Minnesota over UCLA is the only significant upset of the first round but the Golden Gophers are still terrible, even in victory. Michigan fails to live up to expectations for the second consecutive year by falling short of the Sweet Sixteen. Instead, it's Shaka Smart who solidifies his reputation as a March wizard by getting his VCU Rams to the second weekend. Georgetown almost goes home early again but survives scares from Florida Gulf Coast and San Diego State. And Florida never has to deal with its shortcomings in the clutch department, choosing instead to simply crush all of its opponents en route to a Final Four appearance.
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