Showing posts with label Justin Upton. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Justin Upton. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 16, 2013

Reminder: The Diamondbacks Did Something Really Stupid

If we've learned one thing from the first two weeks of the season, it's this: Justin Upton is most definitely a superstar.

In twelve games for the Braves, he's got 11 RBIs and 12 runs scored. He's already hit seven home runs (which leads the majors). His slugging percentage is an astronomical .891 -- exceeded only by The Great Chris Davis. His batting average is .348. He has as many three-hit games (3) as hitless games. Justin Upton is the biggest reason why the Braves have only lost one of their first twelve games and own the best record in baseball.

All of his contributions already add up to a Wins Above Replacement total of 1.3. There were a whopping 24 regular players in baseball last year who couldn't accumulate 1.3 WAR over the entire season, let alone 12 games. In other words, two weeks of 2013 Justin Upton have already been more valuable than Delmon Young's entire 2012 season, and the same goes for Kevin Youkilis, and Rickie Weeks, and Colby Rasmus. That's amazing. He's currently on pace for 17.5 WAR (which won't happen, because the single-season record for a position player is Babe Ruth at 14). But even if he finishes the season with half of that total -- say, 9 WAR -- that would be a hyper-elite season. Not a single player in baseball had 9 WAR last year, except for Mike Trout. As the best player on an excellent team, putting up ridiculous offensive numbers, Justin Upton would have to be considered the current frontrunner for the National League MVP Award.

That's not even the coolest thing about Justin Upton. The coolest thing about Justin Upton is that he's only 25 years old. It'll probably be years and years before he shows any sort of decline. In fact, since a player is thought to reach his peak at age 27, it's possible that the very best of Upton is yet to come -- a frightening concept for Atlanta's division rivals.

Do the Braves have to worry about their emerging superstar's contract situation? If this was the NFL, then absolutely. But this is baseball. Players can't demand a contract renegotiation. The Braves control Upton for the rest of 2013, all of 2014, and all of 2015. Those are his prime seasons -- ages 25, 26, and 27 -- the ones in which he'll likely provide the most value. There's no telling how much other teams would be willing to pay Upton for those years on the open market. The Braves, however, will pay him a grand total of just $38.5 million across all three seasons. In other words, that's just a third of what Josh Hamilton signed for during the offseason. And roughly half of what Nick Swisher signed for. Considering Upton's contract (team-friendly), his age (young), his current production (awesome), and his ceiling (maybe-even-more-awesome), the Braves have one of the best assets in all of baseball.

Yet just a few months ago, it was the Arizona Diamondbacks, not the Braves, who were in possession of Upton. They traded him to Atlanta in January for three non-elite prospects, a pitcher who might be a fourth or fifth starter someday, and one season of a solid-but-unspectacular third baseman named Martin Prado. Calling that a swindling would be an understatement. It would be far more accurate to say that the Braves raided the Diamondbacks' village, slaughtered their cattle, burned down their dwellings, stuffed Justin Upton into a burlap sack, and stole away into the night. The first two weeks of the season have taught us that Justin Upton is a tremendously talented baseball player, but they've also taught us that the Arizona Diamondbacks made an unforgivably dismal trade.

Friday, January 25, 2013

Uptons in the Outfield

Apparently, the Atlanta Braves were really inspired by John and Jim Harbaugh.

Entering the offseason, the team was in need of two outfielders. In November, they filled one of those holes by signing B.J. Upton to a five-year contract. Then, this Thursday, they completed the set by trading for B.J.'s younger brother Justin, rescuing him from the clutches of the clueless Arizona Diamondbacks.

Two siblings playing on the same team is not unprecedented. But a duo like the Uptons is unique. Most of the time, baseball genes are inequitably distributed within families, creating huge and sometimes-hilarious gaps in talent between brothers: Cal and Billy Ripken, Jason and Jeremy Giambi, Roberto and Sandy Alomar. The Uptons, though, are both oozing with rare five-tool athleticism -- and rather appropriately, their career paths are remarkably similar.

B.J. was the second overall pick back in the 2002 MLB Draft. Justin was selected three years later, but he one-upped his older brother by becoming the first overall selection. Both were picked right out of high school by expansion teams: B.J. became a Devil Ray, Justin a Diamondback. Both began their careers as shortstops before moving to the outfield. Scouting reports on both brothers were equally glowing, to the extent that, years later, they're still virtually interchangeable:

"Scouts compare Upton to a young Derek Jeter, right down to the swagger. Upton is further along in his development than Jeter at a comparable age. He's more physically mature than Jeter, who developed his physique in pro ball, and has better power."

"One would be hard-pressed to find a more advanced high school hitter than Upton. Upton has a lightning-quick bat, exciting power potential, and outstanding plate patience ... 
Likening him to the pre-Cincinnati Reds Ken Griffey, Jr., many scouts and experts have said that ... Upton has seemingly no ceiling. He has all the makings of one of baseball's next elite players."

Both B.J.and Justin delivered on their massive promise at a young age. B.J. made his major league debut as a 19-year-old. During his first full season in 2007, when he was still just 22, he blossomed into a remarkable player, hitting .300/.386/.508 with 24 home runs and 22 stolen bases. The following year, B.J.helped the Rays reach the franchise's first-ever World Series by hitting seven home runs in his first 11 playoff games.

Justin also made his major league debut at 19. And like his brother, it didn't take long for him to begin fulfilling his potential. In 2009, as a 21-year-old, Justin posted a .899 OPS with 26 home runs and 20 steals. In 2011, he finished fourth in the MVP race with a similarly excellent season: a .898 OPS, 31 home runs, 21 steals, 39 doubles, and 105 runs scored. He helped the Diamondbacks win an unexpected division title. He was still only 23. Like B.J. after 2007, Justin appeared on the verge of superstardom.

Unfortunately, both brothers suffered falls from grace after their breakout seasons. B.J. has never again replicated his 2007 campaign. His OPS totals have declined into the mid-.700s for the last three seasons. Similarly, Justin's 2012 was a step backwards from 2011. His slugging percentage dropped to .430 and he only hit 17 home runs as he battled a power-sapping thumb injury.

Thanks to the frustrating ebbs and flows of their respective careers, B.J. and Justin have both been subject to unfair accusations and nasty rumors in recent years. B.J.'s failure to repeat his 2007 excellence has led to some outsiders questioning his work ethic and competitive drive. Justin's inconsistent 2012 landed him on the trading block, and the Diamondbacks spent most of the last calendar year trying to deal him away. Those efforts became very public -- the club's owner, Ken Kendrick, even went on the radio in July and expressed his frustration with Justin, calling him an "enigma." The expectations for the Uptons have been set so extraordinarily high that unless they become Derek Jeter and Ken Griffey Jr., they will forever be deemed disappointments.

Given how eerily similar their baseball careers have been, the Uptons' reunion in Atlanta is entirely fitting. The concept of synergy doesn't really exist in baseball, but who knows -- now that the brothers have been given a fresh start, and they're playing together in the same outfield, maybe their performance jointly improves. The Braves are certainly hoping for something of that effect. They've invested a sizable portion of their resources in the Upton family. To acquire Justin, they had to trade away their Opening Day third baseman, Martin Prado, as well as several other prospects. Signing B.J. required a $75 million commitment over the next five years and the sacrifice of a first-round draft pick. It's a massive gamble on two players whose careers to this point could generously be described as "up and down."

It's also a gamble worth taking. B.J. is still only 28 years old. He's in the middle of his prime and it's very possible that he hasn't even had his best season yet. Justin? He's just 25, and now that he's a year removed from his thumb injury (and free of that toxic environment in Arizona), some MVP-caliber seasons are not out of the question. With the Uptons manning left and center, and 23-year-old budding star Jason Heyward in right, the Braves are now in possession of the best outfield in baseball. Those three could become the outfield version of Maddux-Glavine-Smoltz. And even if they don't, they still compose one of the most exciting young cores in the entire league. By accumulating all of this talent, the Braves have once again set themselves up for years of success. They'll go as far as the Uptons take them. Which could be a very great distance.