Jean Segura, Cautionary Tale

Last season, the Los Angeles Angels waited until April 28th to call up Mike Trout from the minor leagues. Their record without Trout was just 6-14. Their record with him the rest of the way was 83-59, a .584 winning percentage that would've ranked 2nd in the American League last year and 4th in baseball overall. It was that awful 20-game, Trout-less stretch that crippled the Angels and left them four games out of the wild card race when the season ended. It may have also cost them a perennial All-Star.

Entering play on July 27th last year, the Angels had climbed back to nine games over .500 (54-45) and were in first place in the wild card hunt, but they were still five games behind Texas in the AL West race. They decided to acquire Zack Greinke from the Milwaukee Brewers that day, pairing him with Jered Weaver atop a suddenly-revamped starting rotation. Greinke should've made the Angels a virtual lock to make the playoffs, a serious challenger for the AL West title, and a World Series contender.

Greinke did pitch well for his new team -- a 3.53 ERA in 13 starts -- and the Angels' record the rest of the season was 35-28. But they missed the playoffs anyway, thanks to late-season surges by Oakland and Baltimore. Their offseason attempts to re-sign Greinke to a long-term contract failed thanks in part to the bottomless coffers of their crosstown rivals. Suddenly the Angels had nothing to show for the entire trade. They didn't make the playoffs with Greinke; they didn't keep him long-term; they didn't even get draft pick compensation for him because he was acquired midseason. The Angels took a huge gamble to help dig themselves out of the massive hole they had dug in April, and ended up rolling snake eyes.

The worst part? One of the prospects the Angels surrendered to get Greinke has been playing like an MVP candidate in 2013. That's the 23-year-old Jean Segura, who's now manning shortstop for the Milwaukee Brewers. Not only does he lead the National League in hits (53) and steals (14, and caught only twice), he's also accumulated the fifth-most WAR in all of baseball. His batting line is Tulowitzkian for a shortstop: a .353 average, .395 OBP, and .573 slugging percentage. He's even hit seven home runs. Right now, Jean Segura is the best shortstop in baseball, which is completely insane. This almost certainly won't continue long-term, but the mere fact that Segura is capable of playing at this ridiculous level has to be disconcerting to Angels management.

The final ledger: the Angels dealt away Segura, who won't be a free agent until 2019 and won't even be eligible for an arbitration pay raise until 2016, for two months of Zack Greinke and no playoff berth. Six seasons of a 23-year-old shortstop for 13 starts. Calling that trade a disaster doesn't even begin to capture it accurately. Jean Segura now stands as THE cautionary tale for any team that feels tempted to strike a bold deadline deal for a star. When a trade of this caliber goes as poorly as this one has, someone usually gets fired. Especially given the success of smaller, less-ambitious midseason trades that don't cost as much (see: Marco Scutaro, circa-late-2012). If Segura continues to play like this, while Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton continue their expensive declines, it can't be too long before Angels general manager Jerry DiPoto finds himself out of a job.

The ironic thing about all of this is that trading for Greinke was probably the right decision for the Angels at the time. They were in win-now mode and made a trade that easily could have led to a World Series title. It just didn't, and now there's a budding star in Milwaukee who will serve as a painful, constant reminder of that fact.

30 Games Later: Readjusting Expectations

Last season, after thirty games, the following teams were leading baseball's six divisions:

AL East: Baltimore and Tampa Bay (tied)

AL Central: Cleveland

AL West: Texas

NL East: Washington

NL Central: St. Louis

NL West: Los Angeles

Only one of those teams would actually go on to win their division -- Washington. In fact, the Rays, Indians, and Dodgers missed the playoffs altogether. Meanwhile, the two eventual pennant-winners, Detroit and San Francisco, had combined to win 30 games and lose 29. So it's not like the standings in early May offer any predictive value for what they'll look like in late September.

But sometimes, the evidence provided by the season's first thirty games is enough to reevaluate what we thought we knew during the winter months. Sometimes, stubbornly sticking to obsolete perceptions of teams is counter-productive. At this time last year, the Athletics were surprisingly 16-14 and the Orioles, at 19-11, were even better; both were expected to fall back into the last place slots that had been reserved for them, but they never did. On the other end of the spectrum, the Angels were 13-18 and the Red Sox were 12-17; both were expected to snap out of their funks and contend for the World Series, but they never did. So yes, it might be early to totally re-calibrate expectations -- still, that doesn't mean that several important trends haven't already started to reveal themselves.

1. The Blue Jays are somewhere between 'Train Wreck' and 'Dumpster Fire' status. On paper, this was the best team in the AL East, maybe the best team in the league. A rotation headed by a pair of aces; a lineup anchored by a pair of elite power hitters; a solid cache of depth. There weren't many holes on the roster.

Just a month into the season, the Blue Jays are not only stuck with a dismal 11-21 record, and not only are they in last place -- they're also 9.5 games out of first. NINE POINT FIVE. Not even the Marlins are that far out of first, and the Marlins are intentionally trying to lose baseball games. No team has gotten worse production out of the #5-hole in the lineup than Toronto, thanks to inconsistency from Melky Cabrera, Adam Lind, and Colby Rasmus. R.A. Dickey's ERA is 5.36; Josh Johnson's is 6.36; Mark Buehrle's is 6.43. Jose Reyes, this team's best player in the early going, will be on the disabled list for another couple of months. In the meantime, the role of shortstop will be played by something called a "Munenori Kawasaki."  Add it all up, and you get a team that's been outscored by a total of 47 runs, second-worst in baseball ahead of only the Astros.

Now: are the Blue Jays really this bad? Of course not. The pitching will improve just because there's nowhere to go but up. Jays hitters have actually been the unluckiest in baseball as a group; random chance will be friendlier to them. But this struggling squad faces the same problem that the Angels did last year: all of these losses are permanently banked. There's no changing that 11-21 record. They're already looking at a ten-game deficit in the division. Just to get to 90 wins, they have to go 80-50 the rest of the way. Is that impossible? No. Is it likely that this uninspiring group will play nearly-perfect baseball for the next five months, without Jose Reyes for half that time? Hardly. Especially not in their hyper-competitive division. As stunning and unfortunate as this is, the Blue Jays are pretty much dead in the water already. Who saw that coming?

2. The Orioles are for real, once again. It was reasonable to expect Baltimore to regress from last year, because last year was either an unrepeatable feat of remarkable overachievement or the product of Buck Showalter's dark magic. Instead, the opposite is true: this team is better now than it was a year ago.

The pitching is still average at best, so the Orioles have just decided to outscore everybody with a suddenly-unrelenting offense. Much of it is fueled by the usual suspects -- Adam Jones and Matt Wieters and such. But there are three others who have helped transform this team into a contender. One is Chris Davis, who's successfully swapped bodies with Josh Hamilton to get from failed prospect to elite slugger (hitting .327/.425/.673 will do quite nicely, thank you very much). The second is Nate McLouth, whose career was once as dead as the 2013 Blue Jays; yet he's now the leadoff hitter for this offense against right-handers. Somehow he's hitting .313/.411/.490 with nine steals and, most amazingly, 16 walks against just 10 strikeouts.

The third is the most important, and also one of the most overlooked young superstars in baseball. Manny Machado has been largely overshadowed by the Trout-and-Harper Mania. But this guy joined the Orioles in the middle of their playoff push last summer without a single game of Triple-A experience, having to transition from his natural position of shortstop over to third base in order to accommodate J.J. Hardy. Now he's a 20-year-old shortstop playing Gold Glove defense at third while hitting .311/.350/.508 and holding down the #2-slot in the Orioles order. He's a huge reason why Baltimore is a serious contender for the AL East title.

3. The Los Angeles teams have proven that money doesn't buy happiness. Over the past year or two, the Angels and the Dodgers have spent hundreds of millions of dollars to import superstars to Southern California -- from Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, and C.J. Wilson to Zack Greinke, Carl Crawford, and Adrian Gonzalez. It hasn't exactly paid off yet. Both are in fourth place, with a lot of concerns up and down their rosters.

For the Dodgers, the problem is offense. With Hanley Ramirez injured, the non-first-base positions are being held down by a sad troupe of deeply flawed guys who might be good if you rolled them all up into one player: Juan Uribe, Mark Ellis, Jerry Hairston, Justin Sellers, Luis Cruz, and Dee Gordon. Those awful bats are rendering the bottom half of the Dodgers lineup useless. To wit: their current #5 hitter A.J. Ellis has only scored five runs all year despite his excellent .390 on-base-percentage. And two of those runs came from his own homers. That's how ugly this offense is right now, especially with Matt Kemp struggling (.342 slugging percentage ... yowza). Thank goodness Carl Crawford is enjoying a fantastic bounceback season (.311/.383/.495), or else things could be even worse.

At least the Dodgers have Clayton Kershaw starting every fifth day. The other L.A. team is in even worse shape. Thought to be a World Series contender before the season started, it's clear that the Angels don't have the pitching to fulfill that potential, and their hitting might not be good enough to even get them to the playoffs in the first place. Over the past calendar year, Josh Hamilton has hit .253/.321/.494, or essentially 156 games of Delmon Young-like production. He's a major reason why the Angels only rank 15th in the majors in runs scored, which isn't good enough when their pitching staff ranks 28th in ERA. Last year, the Angels fought their way back into contention by calling up Mike Trout and trading for Zack Greinke. Neither of those things are happening this time around. In a division with the Rangers and Athletics, competing with the entire AL East for a wild card spot, the Angels are in a bad place right now and it wouldn't be a shock if manager Mike Scioscia gets fired.

4. The Yankees might be better than we thought. A month ago, had you told someone that the Yankees starting lineup in early May would include Jayson Nix, Eduardo Nunez, Chris Stewart, Lyle Overbay, and Vernon Wells, that person would have guaranteed that the Yankees would be a last-place team. That would have been a smart, rational guess.

Yet for some reason, that person also would have been wrong. The Yankees have won 18 of their first 30 games and sit tied for second place in the AL East. And this is with a combined zero at-bats from Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira, and Curtis Granderson, as well as injuries to Kevin Youkilis and Francisco Cervelli. If an injury to Francisco Cervelli deals a harsh blow to your lineup, then you know the offense is desperately seeking help.

Good pitching has basically driven New York's early success, but it's three scrap-heap pickups that have kept the lineup afloat despite the injuries. Against left-handers, Vernon Wells is hitting .333/.383/.595. Against right-handers, Lyle Overbay is hitting .328/.377/.656 and Travis Hafner is hitting .317/.414/.617. They've all suffered against same-handed pitchers, which is a problem because they've all been forced into everyday duty by other injuries. But the Yankees would be absolutely nowhere without these three, who have unexpectedly pummeled whenever they've had the platoon advantage. Oh, and that Robinson Cano fellow has a .972 OPS. He might be an okay player someday.

The Yankees still can't count on making the playoffs, not with all their aging-and-injury question marks. But given the sorry state of their lineup, they could've easily had a Blue Jays-style start to the season and doomed themselves from the beginning. Instead, they've banked 18 wins when their roster was at its weakest. And the impending returns of Granderson, Teixeira, and Youkilis should help relegate the Wells/Overbay/Hafner trio to platoon duty, where they've thrived. This team has kept itself alive, an admirable feat in its own right.

5. The St. Louis Cardinals could be the best team in baseball. This is certainly not something anyone would have predicted before the season. The Cardinals are 20-11, in first place in the Central Division with the second-best run differential in baseball. Carlos Beltran, Matt Holliday, and Yadier Molina remain a devastatingly effective trio in the heart of that lineup. Most impressively, the team ranks 6th in runs scored and 2nd in ERA across baseball, a testament to its balance.

The key to this early success has been unexpectedly dominant starting pitching. The Cardinals' five starters have combined to pitch to a crazy 2.25 ERA over 192 innings, which would seem to be several rungs above "solid." Jake Westbrook leads the league in ERA at 1.07; heralded rookie Shelby Miller is at 1.96 while striking out over a batter per inning; Adam Wainwright has announced his return to ace-dom by striking out 48 batters and walking just three all season.

On top of all that: the team has skillfully handled adversity in the bullpen, too. Incumbent closer Jason Motte is headed for Tommy John surgery, and his first replacement, Mitchell Boggs, was a disaster. The answer? Previously-unknown Edward Mujica has taken over the role with surprising ease. A year ago he was a middle reliever toiling away for the Marlins; now he's converted eight save opportunities for the team with the best record in the National League. Without Motte, or Chris Carpenter, or Albert Pujols, St. Louis is yet again a World Series contender. These Cardinals seem to know what they're doing.

It's Never Too Early to Panic About the Angels

Of the 43 analysts who made preseason predictions at ESPN.com, 31 picked the Los Angeles Angels to win the toughest division in baseball. Over the past two offseasons, they've invested about $450 million in three big-name free agents: Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, and C.J. Wilson. They've also lost eight of the first eleven games they've played in the 2013 season.

Now, it's silly to draw meaningful conclusions from two weeks of baseball. But at the same time, if any team knows how damaging a slow start can be, it's these Angels. Last year, they were one of the best teams in baseball post-May 1st; yet a dismal April record was damaging enough to keep them from making the playoffs. The games in April count just as much as the games in September.

The question is whether the Angels have simply been unlucky in the first two weeks, or if deeper problems exist that are already manifesting themselves. The latter looks to be quite likely, which should scare the heck out of the Angels.

Much of the blame lies with their pitching. It's not pretty. Jered Weaver was supposed to anchor the weak group, but his velocity has taken an alarming dive towards Freddy Garcia levels and now a broken elbow will keep him on the shelf for at least a month. With Weaver out, the rotation looks downright disastrous. C.J. Wilson can't throw strikes and finds himself hurtling towards an A.J. Burnett-style career path. Tommy Hanson is perpetually one pitch away from a serious arm injury and he's not even good anyway. Jason Vargas and Joe Blanton might be the two most 'blah' pitchers in baseball. A team that had $125 million to blow on Josh Hamilton did shockingly little to address a meager pitching staff over the offseason.

The rationale for that decision probably rested upon the assumption that their potent lineup would just score a million runs, eliminating the need for good pitching. Needless to say, this has not been the case. Josh Hamilton's average is sitting at .186 through 11 games, with three extra-base hits and four walks against fifteen strikeouts. Shortstop Erick Aybar is injured. Mike Trout was never going to repeat last year's historic season. The way Albert Pujols limps around the basepaths is alarming. Yet perhaps the biggest problem is depth. On Saturday against the Astros, their lineup included players named J.B. Shuck (leading off!), Austin Romine, and Luis Jimenez. This team is totally unprepared to weather injury attrition.

The Angels decided to take the "stars-and-scrubs" approach to building a baseball roster -- investing heavily in a few high-caliber players at the expense of quality depth. This is a strategy probably better suited for the NBA. Or maybe the Angels just did it wrong. Either way, the result has been ugly. Their stars are injury-prone, declining, deeply flawed, or even all three ("...paging Dr. Hamilton..."). And their scrubs -- including virtually the entire starting rotation -- are really, really bad.

In fact, can we even definitively say that the 2013 Angels are better than the 2012 Angels, a team that missed the playoffs entirely? So far, going from Torii Hunter to Hamilton looks like a downgrade. Trout and Mark Trumbo will probably regress a little. Zack Greinke won't be around for the last two months this time. All that preseason hype around this team looks a bit foolish right now.

Granted, that doesn't mean there isn't hope. What might end up setting these Angels apart from last year's version is a bounceback season from Albert Pujols, who's off to a hot start. He had the walkoff hit against the Astros on Saturday night, saving his team from a second consecutive defeat against the worst baseball team the league has seen in the last decade. And he leads the AL in walks, a welcome sight given the recent deterioration in his plate discipline.

Yet even if Pujols goes back to being PUJOLS again, the Angels still aren't even a lock for a playoff spot. They're competing for a division title with two teams that finished ahead of them in the standings last year. They're competing for a wild card spot with virtually the rest of the American League, including the entire East division. Their fate rests with things no one would ever be comfortable relying on -- C.J. Wilson's command, Josh Hamilton's pitch selection, Jered Weaver's health, Tommy Hanson's everything. The Angels are still good. But they're not a World Series favorite. And they're not even a team anyone should feel comfortable betting on to make the playoffs, regardless of the names on their lineup card.

Why Mike Trout Should Be The MVP

Let me preface this by saying: Miguel Cabrera is awesome. He won the Triple Crown, he's going to the Hall of Fame, and he's either the best or second-best hitter in baseball (depending on what you think of Joey Votto). That's amazing. So I don't mean to disparage him when I say that he's not the American League's Most Valuable Player this year. I'm saying that, as good as Cabrera has been, Mike Trout has been even better, which perhaps starts to describe how truly epic the Angels outfielder's season has been.

Miguel Cabrera is the best hitter in baseball. Mike Trout is the best player. He's almost Cabrera's equal at the plate (more on that later...) and is miles better than Cabrera at every other facet of the game. Advanced metrics like Wins Above Replacement can quantify Trout's advantage in value over Cabrera. I don't even think that angle of the pro-Trout argument is necessary. Common sense says that Mike Trout should win the American League MVP, and it really should be unanimous.

But a lot of people disagree. So here are the most popular MVP arguments made for Cabrera and against Trout, and why most of them are either misleading or complete bogus.

"Cabrera won the Triple Crown, so he deserves the MVP."

No, he doesn't. Winning the Triple Crown is an awesome historical achievement. It's also three arbitrary statistics pulled out of a hat and given a cool name. What if the three statistics were Runs, Stolen Bases, and Spectacular Home-Run-Robbing Catches? Then Mike Trout would have just won the "Triple Crown." It hasn't been done in a long time? Since 1967, you say? Sure, then my counter would be: Mike Trout just became the first player EVER to hit 30 home runs, score 125 runs, and steal 45 bases. If one wants to play the 'historical' card, well, it works both ways.

Now, it is relevant that Cabrera put up great numbers in the Triple Crown categories: a .330 batting average, 44 home runs, and 139 RBIs. But the MVP is an individual award, and two of those statistics are poor evaluators of individual value. Batting average counts all hits as the same, doesn't include sacrifices or walks, and only counts double plays as one out. RBIs are dependent on opportunity, luck, and where a batter hits in the lineup. These statistics, while mainstream, just aren't the best way to determine value.

And if people cite Cabrera's advantage in RBIs over Trout (139 to 83) as evidence of his superior baseball skills, well, those people should be flogged. Cabrera hit in the middle of the order while Trout hit in the leadoff spot ahead of the Angels' worst hitters. If you're going to look at RBIs, then you're obligated to also look at runs scored. Trout led the league in that category with 129 in 139 games played. Either you consider both RBIs and runs, or you thrown them both away. It makes no sense to immortalize RBIs as part of the Triple Crown and ignore runs. They're the two sides of the same statistical concept.

"Cabrera made the playoffs, and Trout didn't."

Reaching the playoffs is a team accomplishment, not an individual one, so it doesn't have much of a place in a debate over an individual award like the MVP. Is it Trout's fault that the Angels had a terrible bullpen, or that Ervin Santana had a thing for giving up home runs, or that Mark Trumbo forgot how to hit after the All-Star Break?

Anyway, here's the best part. The Angels went 6-14 without Trout on the roster; in other words, they were on pace for 48.6 wins over a full season, which obviously would have been the worst record in baseball. The Angels called up Trout from the minor leagues on April 28th, and from that day on they went 83-59. Over a full season, that that's a 94.6-win pace, which would've been good enough to make the playoffs. I'm obviously not saying that Trout alone was responsible for that massive swing in win total, but traditionalists often ask themselves the following hypothetical question when deciding on an MVP: "Where would Team X be without Player Y?" Well, we kind of know the answer in this case. Look at the difference between the two Angels teams.

But on the most simple level? Cabrera's Tigers finished with 88 wins in the easiest division in baseball. Trout's Angels finished with 89 in the toughest division in baseball. The fact that Cabrera is going to the postseason instead of Trout is completely attributable to a poorly-constructed divisional system with an unbalanced schedule. The Angels are better than the Tigers. Cabrera supporters simply can't make any claim that involves playoffs.

"Cabrera carried his team."

The worst argument of them all. A) it's subjective, B) it's completely un-provable, C) it implies that Trout didn't do the same, and worst of all D) it implies that Cabrera had no help. Are we completely ignoring the fact that the Tigers also had the best pitcher in baseball, Justin Verlander, and one of the best hitters in baseball, Prince Fielder? Did they not do any carrying of their own? What about Detroit's 3.10 team ERA in the final month of the season, 2nd best in the American League? Did that have nothing to do with the team's late-season run at the division title?

"Cabrera helped his team win a division title."

The Tigers get to play in the AL Central. Its second-place team was the White Sox, who won 85 games, which would've been good enough for only a 4th-place finish in the other two AL divisions. It's the only division in baseball that had three teams win less than 45% of their games. Detroit got to play dozens and dozens of games against the Twins, Royals, and Indians, three of the worst pitching teams in baseball. Perhaps one of the most unimpressive, meaningless titles that can be bestowed on any team is "2012 AL Central Champions."

"Cabrera was better than Trout when it mattered most: September."

It's true that Cabrera was a better hitter than Trout over the final month. He hit .333/.395/.675. But Trout wasn't exactly a slouch: he hit .289/.400/.500 over the same period (and his OBP was better than Cabrera's, so he was still committing fewer outs). And this is implying that all value is derived from hitting, which isn't true; even when Trout's slumping, he's providing value with his legs and glove. That's not the case for Cabrera.

Then there's the assumption that games in September somehow "matter more" than games in other, inferior months. Nope. Wins in, say, May and July (months when Trout was a better hitter than Cabrera) count just the same as wins in September. Just ask the Angels: they essentially missed the playoffs because of a bad stretch in April.

"Trout didn't play in April, so Cabrera played more games."

This is the converse of the previous argument. You shouldn't be able to make both claims simultaneously. You can't say "September counts way more than every other month!" while also saying, "Trout didn't play in April, so he can't win!" Totally incongruous. Either the months all count the same or they don't.

Cabrera did play in more games than Trout. Trout still came to the plate 639 times, compared to 697 for Cabrera. Plus, Cabrera had a lower on-base percentage than Trout (.393 to .399) and grounded into more double plays (28 to 7), so whatever small advantage he has in playing time is totally nullified by the extra outs he made. Cabrera did play roughly 100 more innings in the field, but Trout was such a better defender in his innings at a more important position that the difference barely matters.

Finally, in 2010, Josh Hamilton won the MVP even though he played in only 133 games. That was 17 games fewer than the second-place finisher, but voters agreed that Hamilton was so much better in his fewer games that he merited the award. Who finished second that year? Miguel Cabrera. It's not like there's no precedent.

"Cabrera changed positions so that the Tigers could sign Prince Fielder, helping his team win."

Heck, if Cabrera didn't change positions for Fielder, what would that say about him? No, hang on, that's not the point. People are suddenly heaping credit on Cabrera for what they perceive as selflessness when he moved to third base to allow Prince Fielder to play first. They've even gone so far as to credit Cabrera with the value Fielder brought to the team, as if Cabrera was solely responsible for signing him and paying his salary. No, the Tigers wanted Cabrera to DH; he didn't consider himself a DH and wanted to move to third instead. The Tigers let him. This created an offensive hole at DH (ughh Delmon Young, the worst) and a defensive liability at third. The Tigers probably would have won more games if Cabrera had been a DH and the team had gotten a defensively sound third baseman to help the pitching staff prevent runs.

I'm not trying to detract from Cabrera; his personal value is obviously greater as a third baseman rather than a DH. This whole angle is just hopeless flawed. Thirty times this year, Trout moved off center field so that his manager could field a better team. No one recognizes that or gives him credit for it. There's just no evidence to suggest that Cabrera is any more of a "team player" or "selfless" than Trout. This is stupid, we're done with this one.

"Cabrera deserves it. Trout can win Rookie of the Year; he has a whole career to win MVPs."

Awards aren't given out based on career achievement or whose turn it is. They're based on merit, and Trout is the more deserving candidate. Hey voters, if you think Cabrera "deserves" an MVP, why didn't you give it to him last year?

Cabrera, 2012: .330/.393/.606/1.033, 166 OPS+
Cabrera, 2011: .344/.448/.586/.999, 179 OPS+

Cabrera's 2011 was in some ways better than his 2012. The only thing that's better this year is the sexy stats: the home runs and RBIs, probably because Cabrera now has Austin Jackson in front of him and Prince Fielder behind him. So Cabrera maybe should have won the MVP last year, but the voters thought that his teammate, ace Justin Verlander, was more valuable. He won the MVP instead. This year, Verlander is having basically the exact same season, but everyone is falling over themselves to crown Miguel Cabrera king of the world. If everyone decided Verlander was the more valuable Tiger just last year, and Verlander basically just repeated last year's season, why has Cabrera suddenly leapfrogged Verlander in terms of value? I will tell you why: because of home runs and RBIs. Cabrera didn't have enough to win the MVP in 2011, and now he has enough to win in 2012. Home runs and RBIs. They're all anyone cares about. It wasn't fair to 2011 Miguel Cabrera and it isn't fair to 2012 Mike Trout.

"Picking Trout over Cabrera puts too much stock into Wins Above Replacement."

No one's saying that the leader in Wins Above Replacement (a rough measurement of a player's all-around value) should automatically win the MVP. That's a straw man argument. WAR just backs up what we observe: that Mike Trout is the most valuable player in the league because he impacts every facet of the game at the highest level.

WAR is just one small piece of the vast pie of evidence supporting Trout's case. It is, however, one of the most delicious. There are two different ways of calculating WAR, but both methods have Trout at the top of this year's leaderboard (with either 10.4 or 10.7 WAR; no other player had more than 8). Baseball Reference.com has Trout's 10.7 WAR season as tied for the 20th-best season by a position player in baseball history (tied with Willie Mays in 1964 and Ted Williams in 1946). The only players in baseball history who have had better single seasons: Ruth, Hornsby, Yastrzemski, Bonds, Gehrig, Ripken, Wagner, Cobb, Mantle, Morgan, and Mays. And Trout didn't even play a full season. WAR could be overstating Trout's value a little, or even a lot, and 2012 would still rank as a historically elite season.

You don't need WAR to prove Trout is the most valuable player in baseball. It's just the icing on the cake.

"Cabrera was so much better offensively than Trout that baserunning and defense don't matter."

Of all the arguments here, this is the one that's most reasonable. A Cabrera supporter could claim that the superior offensive player should get the nod because there's no exact measurement of Trout's 'baserunning' or 'defensive' value, so we can't be sure.

This is still wrong, because the argument can be made that Trout was just as good a hitter--and perhaps a better hitter--than Miguel Cabrera this year.

First of all, their triple-slash lines are closer than one would expect: .330/.393/.606 for Cabrera compared to .326/.399/.564 for Trout. Cabrera's advantage comes in the slugging department, giving him 377 total bases compared to Trout's 315, but Trout closes that gap with his 49 stolen bases.

Another way to compare the two players at the plate is to look at adjusted-OPS, or OPS+, which takes a player's on-base-plus-slugging% and adjusts it to account for league and park factors. An OPS+ of 100 is league average; every point over or under that represents a percentage point better or worse than average. When you adjust for the fact that Cabrera played his home games in a park slightly favorable to offense, while Trout played his home games in a ballpark that suppresses offense, the American League leaders in OPS+ this year looks like this:

1. Mike Trout: 171
2. Miguel Cabrera: 166

However, a lot of people don't like obscure context-neutral statistics when it come to MVP voting. So there's another very simple metric that includes context, called RE24. An article about it was recently posted at Fangraphs.com. RE24 is the difference in run expectancy between the beginning and end of a hitter's at-bat. For example, when a hitter comes to the plate with runners on first and third with two outs, teams are expected to score an average of 0.33 runs in that situation. So a three-run home run would give the hitter a +2.67 bonus in RE24. It works in the opposite way if a hitter detracts from his team's run expectancy, thus losing points. It might seem like Cabrera would lap the field in RE24 because he has so many RBIs, hits for so much power, and is acknowledged as "the last player you'd want to face with men in scoring position."

The American League leader in RE24 is Mike Trout (+56.52 runs). Cabrera ranks fifth (+45.18) after Edwin Encarnacion, Prince Fielder, and Joe Mauer.

Again: this isn't taking baserunning into account, or defense, or position, or competition, or ballpark. This is just a straight-up measurement of how much better-than-average a player is at helping his team score runs. Trout comes out better than Cabrera.

Now throw in the fact that Trout is a 21-year-old rookie center fielder, who is probably the best baserunner and best defensive player in the sport, who plays in a pitcher's park, in the toughest division in baseball, for a team that instantly transformed from a loser into a winner when he was called up, and....why are we still having this discussion?

This is the Problem

This might shock you, but the General Manager of the Detroit Tigers, Dave Dombrowski, thinks Miguel Cabrera should be the MVP. When making his case, he had this to say about advanced statistics like Wins Above Replacement that prefer Mike Trout over Cabrera:

"You can use WAR stats and all of that, but when people used to talk about most valuable player, it used to be, ‘Take that player away from the club and see where that club would be.’ You take Miguel Cabrera out of our lineup right now, and you see where we would be.”

That's literally exactly what WAR is.

This is Wikipedia's definition of WAR, with the most relevant part in bold:

"Wins Above Replacement, commonly known as WAR, is a non-standardized sabermetric baseball statistic that is used to show how many more wins a player would give a team as opposed to a "replacement level", or minor league/bench player at that position."

This is the problem with people who discount WAR when it prefers Mike Trout over Cabrera. They throw it away without even trying to understand what it actually is. Even General Managers of baseball teams.

This Is Bad Logic

ESPN.com had the following poll up on its website:

The potential answers to the poll are poorly set up. The fact that we should evaluate Miguel Cabrera's MVP case differently depending on whether or not he wins the Triple Crown is bogus. Apparently, 30% of people would pick as their MVP regardless of his Triple Crown chase. BUT 41% of people would pick Cabrera as their MVP only if he DOES win the Triple Crown. I would love to meet those people and talk to them for a little while. This is what I would say:

"Hi, 41% of ESPN.com visitors who took this poll. I have a scenario for you. Pretend Miguel Cabrera finishes the season with 43 home runs, okay? Now, if Josh Hamilton ends up with 42, Cabrera would win the Triple Crown, so he would be your MVP, right? Okay. So if Hamilton finishes with 44 home runs, Cabrera would not win the Triple Crown, so he wouldn't be your MVP, right? All right. Do you not realize that Cabrera's value was exactly the same in both scenarios? Do you not realize that you changed your mind about Cabrera's worthiness for MVP based on a couple extra home runs hit by another player not even in the conversation for MVP? Do you not realize the complete absurdity of using Josh Hamilton's home run total or Joe Mauer's batting average to determine an MVP race between Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout?" At this point, my head would implode and the conversation would end abruptly.

I'm concerned for the future of this country when I see that all but a few states are colored green, meaning they don't understand this logic. Anyway, the 41% aren't the only ones who are wrong. The 30% are wrong too, for picking Cabrera over Trout. The 41% are just wrong AND stupid. The 29%, though? Those guys are groovy. Alaskans, Californians, Utahns, and Mississippians have always been my kind of people.

How To Make Yourself Look Like An Idiot

Baseball is being seized by an increasingly contentious debate over who should win the American League's Most Valuable Player award. The dividing lines aren't this clear, but for the most part, the "new-school" baseball blogging community prefers Mike Trout of the Angels, while "old-school" sportswriters and analysts for majors sports organizations and newspapers favor Miguel Cabrera of the Tigers. The argument should, by all rights, be settled with this succinct line of logic:

Miguel Cabrera has been a slightly better hitter than Mike Trout in 2012. However, hitting is only one of baseball's three dimensions, and Trout has a sizable advantage in the other two (baserunning and defense). Cabrera's small edge in hitting is not enough to overcome Trout's massive edge when it comes to baserunning and defense. The award is not titled 'Most Valuable Hitter,' But 'Most Valuable Player.' Trout is the MVP.

There are a whole bunch of advanced statistics and metrics that can actually prove the above statement numerically, but truthfully those shouldn't be necessary. These are very simple concepts about the nature of baseball that we're dealing with.

Yet apparently some people can't grasp them. This includes this man:

His name is Rob Parker. He was a sports journalist for The Detroit News, and now works for ESPN, where he appears on a number of different debate shows. On Wednesday afternoon, ESPN aired a segment where Rob Parker argued for several minutes over who should win the AL MVP. He sided with Cabrera. His opponent was another ESPN analyst, Keith Law. Keith Law is one of the most respected baseball writers on the Internet. He provides advanced statistical analysis, evaluates minor league prospects, and unlike Parker, actually worked in baseball, for the Toronto Blue Jays as the Special Assistant to the General Manager. Law sided with Trout in the MVP debate. Some evidence that this actually took place:

FYI: I'll be on SportsCenter at 4:15pm today. Imma destroy stat man Keith Law over who should b AL MVP -- Trout or Cabrera. Not even close.
— Rob Parker (@RobParkerESPN) September 26, 2012

 After the segment, Rob Parker took to Twitter and made an absolute fool out of himself:

To all the stat-geeks that follow @keithlaw: please put ur calculators down and watch the damn game. That's why the A's haven't won jack.
— Rob Parker (@RobParkerESPN) September 26, 2012

"Stat-geeks"? Who are they? People in baseball who value statistics? That's EVERYONE WHO WATCHES BASEBALL. It would be impossible to for baseball--or any sport--to exist without statistics. I'm sure Rob Parker cited Miguel Cabrera's home run total and batting average to support his argument. Those are stats. Heck, the final score of every game is a statistic. The best part about this is the fact that Parker appears most frequently on an ESPN show titled "Numbers Never Lie." Ha. Irony.

"Watch the damn game"? Keith Law watches 'the damn game' for a living. I'm positive he watches 'the damn game' more than Rob Parker. He watches 'the damn game' so well that ESPN pays him to write columns, hold chats, and host podcasts on a daily basis. Of course, ESPN also pays Rob Parker, so maybe that does rob him of some credibility.

"That's why the A's haven't won jack"? I'm assuming he means that the A's emphasis on statistical analysis is the reason why they haven't 'won jack.' Well...I'm positive that every single team in baseball focuses on statistical analysis. That's how, you know, players are evaluated and teams are run. How else would you do it? Also, Parker chose a terrible time to accuse the A's of not winning jack. Because even though ESPN ranked them as the second-worst team in baseball entering the season, and even though their Opening Day payroll was the second-lowest in baseball, the Oakland Athletics are currently on track to make the postseason. Hey, just for the heck of it:

2012 Wins by the "Can't Win Jack" Oakland Athletics: 87
2012 Wins by the "We've Got the Obvious MVP, Miguel Cabrera" Detroit Tigers: 82.

I'm assuming Rob Parker is also referring to the Moneyball-Era Athletics when he said the team hasn't 'won jack.' Right. Except for the fact that between 1999 and 2006, despite microscopic payrolls, the Athletics finished either first or second in their division every single year. Their lowest win total in those seasons was 87. But don't forget--the A's haven't won jack. All they did was set the AL record for consecutive wins in 2002.

It gets worse.

I've watched that Billy Beane movie 20 times and the A's never won the World Series. Stats so lame, they couldn't add a Hollywood-ending.
— Rob Parker (@RobParkerESPN) September 26, 2012

 Maybe Rob Parker doesn't understand how movies work?

Where's my pocket protector, glasses, laptop and another date-less night? I wanna fit in. Lol
— Rob Parker (@RobParkerESPN) September 26, 2012

Haha! Get it? Because only nerds who use newfangled "statistics" have vision problems and use computers! Classic. Classic Rob.

On a serious note, the one thing I don't understand most of all is this: why are you automatically a nerdy, statistics-worshiping, pocket-protecting, loveless-guy-with-glasses-and-a-laptop-in-your-mom's-basement if you support Mike Trout for MVP? You don't need obtuse computer-generated stats to argue his case. He's just so obviously the best all-around player in baseball that anything said to the contrary sounds foolish.

In fact, going off that point, I'm utterly confused why old-school guys like Rob Parker aren't falling over themselves to kiss Mike Trout's feet and champion him as the MVP. Because Trout is the exact kind of player that classic sportswriters and journalists love to write hyperbolic pieces about in every major newspaper and on every major website. He's the perfect baseball player. His frame is big enough and strong enough that he can effortlessly hit the ball out of the park the other way, yet he's still fast enough to play a great center field and never get caught stealing. He's always causing havoc on the basepaths, setting things up for teammates, energizing his team. He does "all the little things" that the old school adores: stealing a bag, laying down a bunt, making a diving catch, robbing a home run, outrunning a double play, scoring from second on a single, stretching doubles into triples, playing at 110% intensity at all times. The baseball writers love preaching about how valuable and selfless and throwback-y all that stuff is and how it's massively under-appreciated and how it can never be accurately captured by dumb statistics churned out of computers by basement-dwelling 'stat-nerds' who don't watch the game.

Yet now that the numbers and computers and 'stat-nerds' all support this point of view? That yes, Mike Trout's all-around play is worthy of the Most Valuable Player award? All the Rob Parkers of the world have jumped ship. They've done a complete about-face to champion Miguel Cabrera, who in the past they would have scorned because he can't play defense or run fast or do "all the little things." It's as if the old school is terrified of holding the same point of view as the new school, for fear of turning into glasses-wearing, laptop-using stat-nerds. To heck with the actual right answer.

Why does it matter what Rob Parker says on Twitter? He's probably just being provocative on purpose to generate buzz or something. Why care? I can't really say it better than Brandon McCarthy, who might actually know something about the subject considering he's a real-life pitcher for the can't-win-jack Oakland Athletics and his career was turned around when he embraced advanced statistics:

Those are the words of an 'expert debater'. One who's employed by the biggest sports media company in the country. Embarrassing
— Brandon McCarthy (@BMcCarthy32) September 26, 2012

Want another reason? Rob Parker has a vote for the Baseball Hall of Fame. Keith Law doesn't. If that doesn't tell you something's messed up, nothing will.

A Note About the AL MVP Race

On Tuesday night, Miguel Cabrera announced his assault on the Triple Crown. His two home runs gave him 40 on the season, which trails Josh Hamilton by two. His six RBIs give him a commanding lead in that category, 129 to 123 over Hamilton. Cabrera also leads the AL batting race with a .333 average, six points better than Mike Trout's .327.

So if Cabrera out-homers Josh Hamilton over the next two weeks, while maintaining his lead in the RBI and batting average departments, he will win the first Triple Crown since Carl Yastrzemski did it in 1967. If this happens, it seems as though Cabrera will be a mortal lock to win the MVP over Mike Trout. That's how historic this achievement would be.

However, there's another statistical achievement in play that should be considered. BaseballReference.com tracks the history of single-season Wins Above Replacement figures. WAR, unlike the Triple Crown, is an all-encompassing statistic that does its best to quantify a player's all-around value--offense, defense, baserunning--in one simple number. This stands in direct contrast to the Triple Crown, which, despite its aura, only measures home runs, runs batted in, and batting average.

In the history of baseball, only 19 players have ever accumulated 10 WAR in a season. It's the holy grail of the statistic. If you're interested, those players are:

Babe Ruth
Rogers Hornsby
Carl Yastrzemski
Barry Bonds
Lou Gehrig
Cal Ripken Jr.
Honus Wagner
Ty Cobb
Mickey Mantle
Willie Mays
Joe Morgan
Stan Musial
Ted Williams
Robin Yount
Lou Boudreau
Jimmie Foxx
Eddie Collins
Alex Rodriguez
Sammy Sosa

That's 16 Hall of Famers, plus three more (Bonds, Rodriguez, Sosa) who may one day get there.

This year, a 20th player joined this exclusive group. He currently sits at 10.3 WAR and the season isn't even over yet. The player isn't Cabrera. It's Mike Trout.

Cabrera could win the Triple Crown by a landslide and it still wouldn't matter. Not only has Trout has been the most valuable player in baseball this year; he's achieved a season of dominance that only 19 Hall of Fame-caliber players have ever achieved before. And he's done it in only 125 games so far, thanks to missing the first month of the season through no fault of his own.

Trout is the MVP. Any other result would be a joke.

How To Lose Must-Win Games

For teams whose playoff futures are very much in doubt, like the Phillies, Rays, and Angels, every game from here on out is essentially a must-win. One game in the standings can mean the difference between a deep playoff run and a general manager losing his job. That means managers need to pull out all the stops to win at all costs, whether that means an aggressive hook for an underachieving starter, using a closer for a five-out save, or emptying the bench to gain a platoon advantage.

Unfortunately, in recent days, all of the above teams may have thrown away a win (or two) due to poor decision-making, primarily by managers.

1. Tampa Bay Rays and Joe Maddon: Last Wednesday, the Rays were playing the second game of their series with the Orioles, having already lost the first game. The score was tied at two with two outs in the top of the sixth inning and the Rays had the bases loaded. Unfortunately, their hitter in the situation was Jose Molina, who has very likely been one of the ten worst hitters in baseball this season. With the Rays struggling to score runs, and with a lights-out bullpen, one run in the sixth could have won the game. Letting Molina hit there would've been unconscionable, especially with September callups offering a multitude of potential pinch-hitters as well as two catchers to replace Molina. But Joe Maddon let Molina hit. He grounded out, shockingly. In the very next inning, Maddon had a chance to redeem himself. With a runner on second with two outs, righty Ben Francisco was up to face side-armer Darren O'Day, who murders right-handed hitters. Maddon should've pinch-hit. Instead, Francisco struck out. And right after that, Maddon replaced Francisco defensively. If you were going to take him out of the game anyway, why not do it against O'Day? The Rays lost on a walk-off in the ninth inning, 3-2, and were swept. Even winning just this one game in the series could have made a huge difference in the standings.

2. Los Angeles Angels and Mike Scioscia: Scioscia is one of the worst tactical managers in baseball, and the Angels' crushing defeat on Saturday was another example of why that is. Zack Greinke was pitching a shutout into the bottom of the ninth inning against the Royals in Kansas City. With his team up 2-0, Greinke got the first out, and then surrendered a single, bringing Billy Butler to the plate as the tying run. Scioscia pulled his starter for closer Ernesto Frieri, who had thrown 30 laborious pitches the night before. Frieri gave up two home runs in a span of four pitches, and the Angels lost. Scioscia had two viable options: he could have either left Greinke in (he was at 109 pitches and hadn't given up an extra-base hit all night), or taken him out for a right-handed reliever not named Frieri. Because Scioscia's closer, after being worked hard the night before, was very obviously the third-best option after a dominant Greinke and a fresh reliever. Scioscia chose his third-best option. The Angels lost. There's a correlation there.

3. Philadelphia Phillies and Charlie Manuel: The Phillies are miraculously back in the playoff race despite trading away some key pieces at the July 31 deadline. Last week, a seven game winning streak pulled the team back over .500 and within 3 games of the second wild card entering a series with the lowly Astros, essentially a Triple-A team.

Having not followed the series closely enough, I can't point to a single moment where manager Charlie Manuel made a tactical error. However, in the midst of an unlikely September comeback, Manuel's team somehow found a way to lose three out of four games to the Houston Astros. In the eyes of the baseball gods, that is a sin that the Phillies may not--and perhaps should not--bounce back from.

Go West, Young Man

On Friday evening, the Los Angeles Angels acquired 28-year-old ace Zack Greinke from the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for three of their top prospects. Greinke is a free agent after the season, so without a contract extension, the move is only about 2012 for the Angels. What this means for each of the parties involved:

The Angels: they likely would've made the playoffs without Greinke: since starting the season 18-25, eight games back of the Rangers, the Angels have gone 37-20 to pull within four games of the AL West lead. No, acquiring Greinke isn't about the wild card. It's about the division. A third ace won't do you any good if you're subject to the randomness of the one-game wild card playoff. Therefore, getting Greinke is about avoiding that nightmarish scenario and setting the Angels up for a longer, more favorable playoff series in which their opponents must deal with Jered Weaver twice, C.J. Wilson, and Greinke. With a trio like that, the Angels would be favored in any five- or seven-game playoff series. In a one-game playoff series, no one can be favored. That's what LA--in full win-now mode--wants to avoid at all costs.

The Angels' rotation: now composed of Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson, Zack Greinke, Dan Haren, and one of several fifth starter candidates. This is the best rotation the American League has seen in many many years.

The Angels' farm system: General Manager Jerry DiPoto did well in trading for Greinke without giving up pieces that are helping the Angels win this year. That would be players like speedy center fielder Peter Bourjos and fifth starter/bullpen candidate Garrett Richards. Instead, DiPoto gave up major-league-ready infield prospect Jean Segura and two high-ceiling Double-A hurlers, Ariel Pena and John Hellweg. That completely decimates the Angels' farm system, but like the Detroit Tigers, the Angels rightly shouldn't be worried about that given the level of investment in the major league roster.

The Brewers: throwing up the white flag on 2012, and possibly 2013 too. At least they got good value for their ace, and Greinke was a huge part of the best season in Brewers' history.

Zack Greinke: the only hesitation teams have about Greinke is his ability to perform on a big stage. In LA, he gets a chance to prove himself in a major market, during a pennant chase and potential playoff run. If he performs well, he'll make himself tens of millions of extra dollars during free agency, with the Angels or elsewhere.

The Rangers: uh-oh. They lost one Colby Lewis, and the Angels gained one Zack Greinke. The worst-case scenario for the first-place team in the AL West. Right now, Texas' ideal rotation consists of Matt Harrison, whichever version of Yu Darvish chooses to show up, Roy Oswalt's balky back, the rehabbing Neftali Feliz, and Derek Holland. That doesn't come close to sniffing Weaver-Wilson-Greinke-Haren, and it's not better than what Oakland currently has, either. Without a trade of their own (Josh Johnson? James Shields?) the Rangers are in danger of losing the AL West to the Angels.

The Athletics, White Sox, Orioles, Rays, Red Sox, Indians, etc: the rest of the American League wild card contenders are probably dismayed by the Greinke trade, because the Angels have just sewn up one of their two available playoff spots. If any of these teams has an inside track on that last berth, it's the White Sox. In the last month of the season, when the AL East is pummeling itself and the A's are playing the Angels and Rangers, the White Sox get to feast on the weak AL Central. Look for Chicago to act on that advantage and make a trade or two before Tuesday's deadline.

Lefty/Righty Doesn't Really Matter

Old-school managers feel a compulsive need to alternate right-handed and left-handed hitters in their lineups. Theoretically, this makes the late innings difficult to navigate for the opposing manager, who must micromanage his bullpen arms to get the match-ups he wants.

Sometimes, this obsession with lefty-righty lineup symmetry goes too far and actually hurts a team's scoring expectancy. The relevant example here lies with Mike Scioscia's Angels. Scioscia's middle-of-the-order bats are Albert Pujols and Mark Trumbo, but both are righties, so for much of the season Scioscia felt compelled to separate the two with switch-hitter Kendrys Morales. This is despite the fact that Trumbo is hitting a Josh Hamilton-like .309/.361/.630 with 26 homers, while Morales' power has disappeared en route to a .423 slugging percentage and 9 home runs. Only recently did Scioscia relent and move Trumbo into his rightful cleanup spot behind Pujols, finally allowing the two righties to hit back-to-back (oh, the humanity!). The improvement won't be enormous, but one would expect the Angels to score more runs with their best hitters now concentrated together in the lineup.

Bobby Valentine of the Red Sox, meanwhile, has none of Scioscia's qualms about putting same-side hitters next to each other. On Monday against the White Sox, he actually had four straight lefties lead off his lineup: Jacoby Ellsbury, Carl Crawford, David Ortiz, and Adrian Gonzalez. In the bottom of the seventh inning of a 1-1 tie, White Sox manager Robin Ventura pulled his right-handed starter with those four lefties due up next, predictably bringing in a left-handed reliever, Leyson Septimo. And what happened?

Crawford walked. Ortiz walked. Adrian Gonzalez homered. 4-1 Red Sox. They won the game. Sometimes, good hitters are just good hitters, regardless of theoretical platoon disadvantages.

Since lineup construction has a very small impact over the course of a long season, it doesn't matter THAT much whether managers choose to prioritize lefty-righty matchups or just plain production. But as a rule of thumb, bunching your best hitters together in the lineup, regardless of right- or left-handedness, is probably the better way to go.

Albert Pujols Still Hits Homers

On Tuesday, the Angels fired longtime hitting coach Mickey Hatcher. Not strictly because of Pujols' slow start, but because only the A's and Mariners have lower team OBPs, and only the A's and Twins have scored fewer runs.

With Hatcher gone, replaced by Triple-A coach Jim Eppard, Pujols homered on Wednesday. And then he homered again on Thursday. In other words:

Pujols with Hatcher: 146 at-bats, 1 HR
Pujols with Eppard: 8 at-bats, 2 HR

Coincidence? Probably. Interesting? Definitely.

Next on Pujols' American League To-Do List: start walking. He's walked exactly once in the month of May. Albert has proven that he hasn't turned into Chone Figgins, but he needs to prove he hasn't turned into Vladimir Guerrero. That .248 OBP is far uglier than any low home run total.

Albert Pujols Doesn't Walk Anymore

Much has been made of the fact that Albert Pujols only has one home run this season, and we're in the middle of May. In reality, that's not the biggest problem for the Angels star. Everyone goes through power outages: Adrian Gonzalez has only homered twice, Ryan Zimmerman just once. The far more troubling trend is his plate discipline. Specifically: his walks, which he usually accumulates in large amounts. They've been completely missing so far in 2012.

There are tangible reasons for the drop-off in free passes, reasons that are becoming troubling trends. Pujols is taking more swings than ever before, and not just at strikes. He's swinging at pitches outside the strike zone far more frequently. His more aggressive approach at the plate has led to just five unintentional walks all season, in 150 plate appearances. Five walks.

By comparison, Ian Kennedy also has five walks. In 17 plate appearances.

And Ian Kennedy is a pitcher.

If Pujols was maintaining his career walk rate and showing his typical plate discipline, it would be far easier to chalk up his slow start to poor luck or league adjustment. But he's not, which is worrisome for an Angels offense heavily leaning on their new slugger for offensive production. In the AL, only the Twins and A's have scored fewer runs than the Halos.

Pujols needs to snap out of his funk soon, or else a wild card spot will be completely out of reach (with the Rangers playing like they are, the division may already be out of the question). To complicate matters, competition for those spots will be fierce in the hypercompetitive AL with all of the teams in the East, as well as two or three in the Central, targeting playoff berths. After spending over $300 million in the offseason, failing to bring even one postseason game to L.A. would have to be considered a colossal failure for the Angels franchise. Much of the blame will fall on Albert's shoulders if he doesn't turn things around.

Why the Angels are in Trouble

The Angels' problems run much deeper
than an Albert Pujols slump.

On Sunday, the Los Angeles Angels could only scrape three hits off of Derek Lowe and the Indians, losing 4-0 to drop their record to 7-15. Albert Pujols has no home runs, while Ervin Santana has already surrendered 10. The offense has been terrible, the bullpen even worse. Rather stunningly, they're already 9 games back of Texas in the AL West standings after only a month. Things will get better; the Angels' roster is too talented to win just 32% of its games. But the dirty little secret is that even when things normalize, the Angels might not be a playoff team. Which means that team management seriously miscalculated the state of the franchise this offseason when they signed Pujols to his megadeal.

The Angels would not have inked Pujols to that monstrous 10-year deal (at age 32!) unless they felt he could help them win a World Series within the next few seasons. Which means that GM Jerry Dipoto looked at his roster this offseason and said, "We're basically one big piece away being a championship-caliber team." When it came to his starting rotation, he was right: he has three legitimate aces in Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, and C.J. Wilson. But the rest of the roster? Not even close. His outfield includes Vernon Wells and Torii Hunter, two very expensive and declining players. His two top-of-the-lineup middle infielders struggle to perform their most critical task: get on base. His best offensive player outside of Pujols is playing his first month of baseball since early-2010. His second-best offensive player, Mark Trumbo, doesn't really have a position. His bullpen relies heavily on Jason Isringhausen, LaTroy Hawkins, Kevin Jepsen, and Hisanori Takahashi. The Angels aren't a particularly well-built team, and they certainly weren't one Albert Pujols away from a championship. This would still be true even if Pujols was hitting .400 with nine homers and 20 RBIs right now.

The Angels thought it would be a neat idea to pay
Vernon Wells lots of cash to play baseball poorly.

What should the Angels have done instead of signing Pujols? Given the many question marks on this roster, the new front office should have used 2012 as an evaluative year. Is Kendrys Morales healthy, and is he our long-term first baseman? Can Mark Trumbo play another position, or is he stuck at 1B/DH? Does Vernon Wells have anything left, or should we just bite the bullet and release him? Are Chris Iannetta, Howie Kendrick, and Erick Aybar worthy of extensions, or are they replaceable at a cheaper cost? Is Mike Trout ready to play everyday? What can we do to fix our bullpen? The Angels have been forced to solve these questions on the fly while trying to compete for a championship. Not easy, or wise.

Mike Napoli, Former Angel.

Had the Angels used 2012 to figure out their roster issues, they would be in much better shape to focus on a championship in 2013, when most of their core players are still under contract and the salaries of Bobby Abreu and Torii Hunter come off the books (a combined $27 million). The front office could've used that money, plus the savings from not signing Pujols, to pursue a major free agent or two to fill the long-term needs they've spent a year identifying; the list of potential targets includes Josh Hamilton, Mike Napoli (ironically), Cole Hamels, and Zack Greinke. The result would be a far more balanced and complete team.

But instead of spending this time to reshape the roster, evaluate young talent, and cut the fat, the Angels are frantically trying to patch the gaping holes that a $150 million team shouldn't have in the first place. And given ownership's recent spending frenzy, there won't be another round of pricey free agent signings arriving on white horses next season, not with $120 million already committed to just 10 players in 2013. The Angels' problems extend far beyond a rough stretch in April.

Meanwhile, the Rangers are running away with the division. Matt Kemp and the Dodgers are stealing the L.A. spotlight. Albert Pujols isn't getting any younger. Yes, it's too soon to panic. But the Angels need to start winning soon, before they have to start answering some tough questions.

Mike Scioscia is a Bad Manager, and Other Tidbits

• Okay--Mike Scioscia is not a bad manager. But right now, he's not a very good one. First of all: his lineup card. I'd imagine that an Angels fan's ideal lineup would feature an outfield of Mark Trumbo, Peter Bourjos, and Mike Trout, with Maicer Izturis at third base and Kendry Morales DHing. In this scenario, Vernon Wells, Torii Hunter, and Bobby Abreu are far, far away. Instead, Wells and his .279 OBP have gotten 42 at-bats, while Trumbo and his team-leading (team-leading) 1.224 OPS have gotten 16. And Mike Trout's Triple-A numbers are: .407/.459/.593. Scioscia isn't putting his best team on the field each game.
  
  The more inexcusable part of Scioscia's team management has been his bullpen usage. In fact, it may have been the reason the Angels lost on Tuesday night. With the Angels winning 2-1 with two outs in the bottom of the seventh, Scioscia inexplicably pulled starter Dan Haren, who had thrown just 85 pitches, after he surrendered a bunt single. Dominant lefty setup man Scott Downs entered the game and got out of the jam on four pitches, but again, inexplicably, Scioscia did not send him out to pitch the eighth. Neither did closer Jordan Walden, who has thrown just two innings this season. In came Kevin Jepsen, owner of a career 5.04 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. Predictably, Jepsen allowed the A's to score four runs en route to their comeback 5-3 victory.
  
  So on offense, the Angels' best players (Trumbo, Trout) are losing at-bats to inferior options (Wells, Abreu, Hunter). In the bullpen, the Angels' best relievers (Walden, Downs) aren't pitching the most high-leverage innings, in favor of inferior options (Jepsen and Company). The only ways a manager can really hurt his team, besides putting himself in the cleanup spot or ordering Pujols to bunt, is by screwing up his lineup card and making poor bullpen moves. Scioscia is doing both. I'd be pissed if I was an Angels fan.

• To be impatient is to be human, which is why we often lose interest in hyped young players, even if they're billed as future superstars, because of early struggles or injury setbacks. Once Domonic Brown, Brian Matusz, and Justin Smoak don't instantly become All-Stars, they are quickly forgotten as everyone moves on to fawn over the next wave: Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, and Matt Moore. Which is why it's time to play 'Remember These Guys?' in which former top prospects who have somewhat fallen out of the spotlight, due to struggles with performance or injury, are recognized as Post-Hype Stars for their production so far:
  Matt Wieters: .333/.442/.694, 4 HRs, 9 RBIs
  Jason Heyward: .351/.429/.595, 2 HRs, 4 SBs
  Buster Posey: .375/.429/.500, 1 HR
  Nolan Reimold: .351/.368/.757, 4 HRs
  
  Stephen Strasburg: 1.42 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 19 K's, 5 BB's in 19 IP, .191 BAA
  Jordan Zimmermann: 1.29 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, .184 BAA
  Kyle Drabek: 1.42 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, .200 BAA
  Rick Porcello: 1.84 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, .226 BAA
  Neftali Feliz: 2.25 ERA, 1.08 ERA, .209 BAA
  Jake Arrieta: 2.26 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 16 K's, 4 BB's in 20.1 IP, .194 BAA
  
  The pitchers' performances are far more volatile, given that they've got two or three starts under their belt. But it would not be surprising at all if Wieters and Heyward have permanently joined the ranks of the elite. And remember: Wieters is only 25. Heyward is just...22 (!!!).

• Monday night: the Tigers are clinging to one-run lead against the Royals. The bases are loaded with two outs in the ninth inning. Justin Verlander is on the mound, one out away from a complete-game victory. Alex Gordon is at the plate. Verlander then throws the following sequence of pitches:
  -Pitch #127: 100 mph fastball, fouled off.
  -Pitch #128: 100 mph fastball, high.
  -Pitch #129: 100 mph fastball, inside.
  -Pitch #130: 88 mph changeup, strike two looking.
  -Pitch #131: 100 mph fastball, strike three looking, Tigers win 3-2.
  Come on. That's not fair.

• Speaking of ridiculous arm strength...THIS is why no one should ever test A's right fielder Josh Reddick:

• Red Sox reliever Mark Melancon had a laughably poor outing against the Rangers on Tuesday night. With Boston already losing 8-2 in the eighth inning, the following sequence then occurred:
  -Mark Melancon enters the game.
  -Ian Kinsler doubles.
  -Elvis Andrus walks.
  -Josh Hamilton homers.
  -Adrian Beltre homers.
  -David Murphy walks.
  -Nelson Cruz homers.
  -Mark Melancon is removed from the game.
  That Hamilton homer was one of the deepest, like, ever in Fenway Park. Appropriately, Melancon's ERA now sits at 49.50. The former Yankees prospect may very well be an embedded mole sabotaging the Red Sox from within as part of an elaborate sting operation. Other members of Melancon's crack team of double agents: Crawford, Carl and Lackey, John.

• This bit of news perfectly epitomizes the sad state of Minnesota Twins baseball:
  
  "In a stunning turn of events on Tuesday, Twins righthander Scott Baker went in to have surgery on his flexor pronator tendon but exited with Tommy John reconstructive elbow surgery."

• And finally, the chronic erosion of one's love for baseball (and life in general) caused by wearing a Baltimore Orioles uniform over an extended period of time is illustrated by this heartbreaking chronological sequence of Robert Andino headshots:

Being an Oriole takes a toll on the soul.

Howie Kendrick Has All the Answers

Angels second baseman Howie Kendrick, on his team's disappointing 3-6 start:

"Once we start to hit better, pitch better, and play better defense, it will all come together."

In other words: the Angels will be playing better baseball just as soon as they start playing better baseball.

MLB Season Preview: Los Angeles Angels [of Anaheim]

With their sights set on regaining control of the AL West, the Angels added the top hitter and top pitcher available on the free agent market to an already-solid roster.

Say hello to the new face of the franchise.

Offense: The Angels addressed their lack of an impact hitter by inking Albert Pujols to a huge contract. He transforms their entire lineup--which is a good thing, because it was in desperate need of transforming. Erick Aybar and Howie Kendrick are solid top-of-the-order middle infielders with speed, but their career OBPs are .319 and .329 respectively. And there's not much behind Pujols either. Torii Hunter's offense looked better when it was coming from a Gold Glove center fielder; he's 36 years old now, too. Vernon Wells will be paid wheelbarrows of money to put up a triple-slash line that could easily match last year's atrocity (.218/.248/.412). Mark Trumbo, an OBP black hole with big power, has been rendered position-less, so he'll try to fake it at third base. At least Chris Iannetta provides an upgrade over the immortal Jeff Mathis at catcher. With so few solid options behind Pujols, the most important development of the Angels' season will be the recovery of Kendrys Morales from a broken leg that cost him much of the past two years. If Morales can approach the .306/.355/.569 line he put up in 2009, and thus protect Pujols in the lineup, the Angels will be in much better shape. A healthy Morales at DH also makes Bobby Abreu a trade candidate, which might be best for everyone involved.

The West Coast response to Halladay, Lee, and Hamels?
Weaver, Haren, Wilson, and Santana.

Pitching: The Rays and Yankees may have the Angels bested when it comes to pitching depth, but no American League team can match L.A.'s top four arms. Jered Weaver would have won the Cy Young award had it not been for some guy named Justin. Even allowing for some regression, he'll still be a durable and high-quality ace. Dan Haren is the best pitcher no one ever talks about; in 2011 he threw 238 innings with a 3.17 ERA and 1.02 WHIP, and only Roy Halladay bested his K/BB ratio. The Angels lured the Rangers' ace, C.J. Wilson, away from Texas to be their third starter, and Ervin Santana has posted two consecutive seasons of 220+ innings and a sub-4.00 ERA. With this group, it doesn't really matter if the fifth starter is journeyman Jerome Williams, prospect Garrett Richards, or perhaps eventually Roy Oswalt. The Angels may not have the depth to withstand a major injury, but right now their rotation appears to be the AL's best. The bullpen could be a bit volatile outside of dominant lefty setup man Scott Downs, since rookie closer Jordan Walden walked nearly 4 batters per nine innings last year. Veterans LaTroy Hawkins and Jason Isringhausen will try to provide stability.

No, this was one of the few catches
Peter Bourjos could not make.

Breakout Candidates: Outside of Pujols, the best position player in the organization might be Mike Trout, a five-tool center fielder ranked as one of the three best prospects in baseball. But he'll start the year in Triple A, and given the amount of money owed to Hunter and Wells, his big league opportunities seem limited at the moment. The more likely breakout candidate might be incumbent center fielder Peter Bourjos. He provides elite defense and speed, and could improve upon the 12 homers and .271 average he provided last year.

3 Key Questions: How will Morales recover from his injury? Will the hitters around Pujols make opposing pitchers pay often enough for pitching around the prolific slugger? And how many at-bats will be wasted on Vernon Wells before Mike Trout gets his shot?

Best Case Scenario: The pitching is dominant, Morales recovers fully and hits like Miguel Cabrera, Trout takes the left field job away from Wells, Trumbo can handle third base, and Pujols wins the MVP en route to a World Series title.

Worst Case Scenario: Morales isn't the same after the injury, Wells gets 500+ at-bats again, Trout doesn't sniff the majors, Trumbo is a butcher at third, no one pitches to Pujols, and the pitching isn't enough to win the Angels a playoff spot in the cutthroat American League.

Predicted Finish: The Angels finished 10 games behind Texas last season, and Pujols and Wilson could close that gap by themselves. It should be a tight race, but the Rangers' offense is far superior and their pitching is more capable of withstanding multiple injuries. L.A. finishes second, barely missing the playoffs in Year One of Albert.