1. FLORIDA (26-2): The Gators have survived some close calls since rising to the #1 ranking -- a fortunate home escape against Auburn followed by a pair of narrow road wins at Ole Miss and Vanderbilt. But the winning streak is up to 20, and barring a catastrophe, Florida can close out a perfect 18-0 SEC season by beating Kentucky at home in their regular season finale next weekend.
2. WICHITA STATE (30-0): The first team in NCAA history to win thirty regular season games without a loss. One more victory on Saturday and Wichita State will clinch the first undefeated season in college basketball since Saint Joseph's did it a decade ago.
3. ARIZONA (26-2): They seem to have emerged from that team-wide offensive slump -- in two games this week, the Wildcats put up 88 and 87 points in blowout wins. And this defense remains the best in the country. After a bumpy couple of weeks, Arizona is Officially Back.
4. KANSAS (22-6): It's hard to have a better week than the Jayhawks just had. They crushed a good, nationally-ranked Texas team by 31 points and then beat Oklahoma to clinch at least a share of the Big 12 regular season title (for the 10th consecutive year). In his decade of coaching at Kansas, Bill Self now has more league championships (ten) than total home losses (nine).
5. LOUISVILLE (24-4): The Cardinals have been dominating weaker opponents for weeks; they just lacked credibility. That changed last weekend, when they got the signature victory they desperately needed by winning at Cincinnati on a Russ Smith buzzer-beater. Louisville is now a top-15 team in the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency -- the only other teams that can make that same claim are Florida and Wichita State.
6. SYRACUSE (26-2): Recapping their last five games: a miracle win over Pittsburgh, a miracle win over N.C. State, a disastrous loss at home to Boston College (which, by the way, lost its very next game to Miami by 27 points), a loss at Duke, and a narrow two-point win at Maryland. That was always going to be a tough five-game stretch, but Syracuse was clearly fortunate to emerge from it with a 3-2 record that they probably didn't deserve.
7. CREIGHTON (23-4): Can Creighton get a number one seed? It's not far-fetched -- the Bluejays have the best offense in the country, the best player in the country, the 8th-best RPI ranking, and a pair of dominating wins over Villanova. If Creighton wins its final three games against quality opponents, and then beats Villanova a third time to win the Big East Tournament, a number one seed should definitely be in play.
8. DUKE (22-6): In two games against Syracuse, Duke attempted a combined total of 57 three-pointers; meanwhile, Syracuse attempted 13. Here's hoping for another re-match between these evenly-matched teams in the ACC Tournament, just so we can see how wide that comical margin can stretch.
9. WISCONSIN (23-5): The Badgers are back! After a miserable January (five losses in six games at one point) Wisconsin is cruising again thanks to impressive back-to-back road wins at Michigan and Iowa. It's time to put Michigan State in a drawer until all their players are healthy at the same time -- which leaves Wisconsin as the best team in the Big Ten.
10. VIRGINIA (23-5): Here's the ACC's version of Louisville. To some extent, Virginia's gaudy 15-1 record in the ACC is a product of fortunate scheduling: the Cavaliers only had to play the four best teams in the conference (Syracuse, Duke, North Carolina, Pittsburgh) once each. But by squashing inferior competition and avoiding bad losses, the Cavaliers put themselves in position to potentially win the ACC title by beating Syracuse on Saturday.
Key Games to Watch This Weekend:
#4 Syracuse at #12 Virginia, 4:00 PM Saturday
Virginia hasn't given up 60 points in a game since February 5th and hasn't given up 70 against any ACC opponent. Considering how Syracuse's offense has struggled recently (looking at you, Trevor Cooney), Virginia should be more than a light favorite in this game.
#9 Creighton at Xavier, 5:00 PM Saturday
With barely more than two weeks left until Selection Sunday, it's about time for borderline tournament teams to pick up noticeable wins that can push them into the field of 68. Xavier -- wildly inconsistent and 19-9 overall -- would almost certainly assure itself of a tournament bid by knocking off a top-ten Creighton team.
#5 Kansas at Oklahoma State, 9:00 PM Saturday
After such a promising start to their season, a cold stretch of basketball and Marcus Smart's suspension have improbably sent Oklahoma State stumbling backward onto the NCAA Tournament bubble. With Smart back in the lineup, an upset of Kansas would finally secure Oklahoma State team the at-large bid that once seemed like a foregone conclusion.
Showing posts with label NCAAB. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NCAAB. Show all posts
Thursday, February 27, 2014
Friday Power Rankings: Louisville On a War Path
Friday, February 21, 2014
Friday Power Rankings: Welcome to Gator Country
1. FLORIDA (24-2): Who's the best player on the best team in the country? The fact that this question has no obvious answer tells you a lot about Florida. Maybe it's Scottie Wilbekin, because the point guard should win by default. But backup Kasey Hill is averaging almost as many assists (3.1) as Wilbekin (3.7) in 10 fewer minutes per game. Casey Prather leads the team in both scoring and field-goal percentage and still, nobody knows who Casey Prather is. Michael Frazier II is the most reliable outside shooter. Dorian Finney-Smith leads the team in rebounding -- and he comes off the bench. Florida's best NBA prospect is Chris Walker, and he only plays a handful of minutes per game. What a weird, awesome team.
2. WICHITA STATE (28-0): Syracuse suffering its first loss to Boston College should remind people that winning every single game you play is really really hard, regardless of the quality of competition. Wichita State standing three games away from an undefeated regular season is an incredible achievement because the Shockers have been playing the Boston Colleges of the world for months and haven't slipped up once. Sure, their strength of schedule is ranked 130th in the country at KenPom.com. But that's ahead of Cincinnati (132) and Louisville (158), two teams that don't face the same kind of skepticism that the Shockers do.
3. SYRACUSE (25-1): It's difficult to articulate just how unlikely the Orange's home loss to Boston College was. BC was 6-19 on the season and their only two wins against Division I opponents since November both came against Virginia Tech. What's even more worrisome is that Syracuse could easily be riding a three-game losing streak right now if not for a miracle heave by Tyler Ennis and an epic N.C. State choke.
4. ARIZONA (24-2): The Wildcats' offense might be letting them down, but their defense remains the best in the country. Arizona only allowed one field goal over the final five minutes to win at Utah, where the Utes had been 16-1 on the season.
5. KANSAS (20-6): Andrew Wiggins put up 19 points and scored the game-winning layup with less than two seconds remaining to salvage a one-point win at Texas Tech. But sure, let's call him disappointing.
6. MICHIGAN STATE (22-5): In Keith Appling's first game back, Michigan State lost a shocker at home to Nebraska. In his second, he racked up nine assists and Michigan State sunk 17 threes to pound Purdue. Here's hoping that second outcome is closer to reality that the first.
7. CREIGHTON (22-4): Villanova only has three losses this season. Two of them are to Creighton. In those two games, Creighton scored a combined 197 points and shot 60% from three-point range (30-for-50!). In their more recent matchup, Doug McDermott dropped 39 points and passed Larry Bird in career scoring. This is one seriously badass offense.
8. LOUISVILLE (22-4): Maybe the hardest résumé to decipher in college basketball. On one hand, the Cardinals are destroying the opposition. Each of their last five wins have come by at least 15 points and they lead the country in scoring margin by a mile (outscoring opponents by 21.5 points per game). But they've also lost against the four best teams they've played (North Carolina, Kentucky, Cincinnati, and Memphis). In fact, they might only have two wins against NCAA Tournament teams (Connecticut and SMU). Louisville still has some work to do if it wants a tournament seed that matches its talent.
9. DUKE (21-6): The following teams have now lost to North Carolina: Duke, Michigan State, Louisville and Kentucky (coincidentally, the top four in preseason rankings). And the following teams have beaten North Carolina: Belmont, UAB, Wake Forest, Miami.
10. SAINT LOUIS (24-2): Last weekend's win over VCU virtually guarantees Saint Louis the regular season title over the ultra-competitive Atlantic 10. The only team more thrilled about that than Saint Louis is Wichita State, who beat the Billikens in their own building back on December 1st. Saint Louis hasn't lost a game since then, a fact that lends Wichita State the credibility it desperately needs.
Key Games to Watch This Weekend:
#11 Louisville at #7 Cincinnati, 12:00 PM Saturday
Louisville has already lost to Cincinnati at home. The Cardinals really need this one to prove that their gaudy numbers aren't a mirage manufactured by whipping bad teams.
St. John's at #6 Villanova, 1:30 PM Saturday
Every year, a team that was initially expected to be good suffers some some bad losses early and falls off the radar, but then figures things out and quietly charges back into relevance. St. John's looks like that team. Once 0-5 in the Big East, the Red Storm is now 8-6 and their only defeat in their last 10 games came at Creighton. On Tuesday, they were trailing to Butler at halftime -- and still won by 25 points. Villanova could get upset here, but the Wildcats are probably thrilled that they don't have to play Creighton.
#1 Syracuse at #5 Duke, 7:00 PM Saturday
A rematch of the best game of the season, and a game Syracuse suddenly has to win just to keep pace with Virginia (of all teams!) in the ACC title race.
#19 Texas at #8 Kansas, 7:30 PM Saturday
With a win here, Kansas would open up a three-game lead on the rest of the Big 12, virtually clinching the regular season title. That would be Bill Self's tenth Big 12 championship in ten years at Kansas. That'll do.
#13 Michigan State at #20 Michigan
The Big Ten title could be on the line here. Michigan (10-3 in the conference) has already won at Michigan State (11-3), although the Spartans didn't have Adreian Payne in that game. Payne is back for what should be a highly entertaining rematch that could hinge on how healthy Keith Appling's wrist feels.
2. WICHITA STATE (28-0): Syracuse suffering its first loss to Boston College should remind people that winning every single game you play is really really hard, regardless of the quality of competition. Wichita State standing three games away from an undefeated regular season is an incredible achievement because the Shockers have been playing the Boston Colleges of the world for months and haven't slipped up once. Sure, their strength of schedule is ranked 130th in the country at KenPom.com. But that's ahead of Cincinnati (132) and Louisville (158), two teams that don't face the same kind of skepticism that the Shockers do.
3. SYRACUSE (25-1): It's difficult to articulate just how unlikely the Orange's home loss to Boston College was. BC was 6-19 on the season and their only two wins against Division I opponents since November both came against Virginia Tech. What's even more worrisome is that Syracuse could easily be riding a three-game losing streak right now if not for a miracle heave by Tyler Ennis and an epic N.C. State choke.
4. ARIZONA (24-2): The Wildcats' offense might be letting them down, but their defense remains the best in the country. Arizona only allowed one field goal over the final five minutes to win at Utah, where the Utes had been 16-1 on the season.
5. KANSAS (20-6): Andrew Wiggins put up 19 points and scored the game-winning layup with less than two seconds remaining to salvage a one-point win at Texas Tech. But sure, let's call him disappointing.
6. MICHIGAN STATE (22-5): In Keith Appling's first game back, Michigan State lost a shocker at home to Nebraska. In his second, he racked up nine assists and Michigan State sunk 17 threes to pound Purdue. Here's hoping that second outcome is closer to reality that the first.
7. CREIGHTON (22-4): Villanova only has three losses this season. Two of them are to Creighton. In those two games, Creighton scored a combined 197 points and shot 60% from three-point range (30-for-50!). In their more recent matchup, Doug McDermott dropped 39 points and passed Larry Bird in career scoring. This is one seriously badass offense.
8. LOUISVILLE (22-4): Maybe the hardest résumé to decipher in college basketball. On one hand, the Cardinals are destroying the opposition. Each of their last five wins have come by at least 15 points and they lead the country in scoring margin by a mile (outscoring opponents by 21.5 points per game). But they've also lost against the four best teams they've played (North Carolina, Kentucky, Cincinnati, and Memphis). In fact, they might only have two wins against NCAA Tournament teams (Connecticut and SMU). Louisville still has some work to do if it wants a tournament seed that matches its talent.
9. DUKE (21-6): The following teams have now lost to North Carolina: Duke, Michigan State, Louisville and Kentucky (coincidentally, the top four in preseason rankings). And the following teams have beaten North Carolina: Belmont, UAB, Wake Forest, Miami.
10. SAINT LOUIS (24-2): Last weekend's win over VCU virtually guarantees Saint Louis the regular season title over the ultra-competitive Atlantic 10. The only team more thrilled about that than Saint Louis is Wichita State, who beat the Billikens in their own building back on December 1st. Saint Louis hasn't lost a game since then, a fact that lends Wichita State the credibility it desperately needs.
Key Games to Watch This Weekend:
#11 Louisville at #7 Cincinnati, 12:00 PM Saturday
Louisville has already lost to Cincinnati at home. The Cardinals really need this one to prove that their gaudy numbers aren't a mirage manufactured by whipping bad teams.
St. John's at #6 Villanova, 1:30 PM Saturday
Every year, a team that was initially expected to be good suffers some some bad losses early and falls off the radar, but then figures things out and quietly charges back into relevance. St. John's looks like that team. Once 0-5 in the Big East, the Red Storm is now 8-6 and their only defeat in their last 10 games came at Creighton. On Tuesday, they were trailing to Butler at halftime -- and still won by 25 points. Villanova could get upset here, but the Wildcats are probably thrilled that they don't have to play Creighton.
#1 Syracuse at #5 Duke, 7:00 PM Saturday
A rematch of the best game of the season, and a game Syracuse suddenly has to win just to keep pace with Virginia (of all teams!) in the ACC title race.
#19 Texas at #8 Kansas, 7:30 PM Saturday
With a win here, Kansas would open up a three-game lead on the rest of the Big 12, virtually clinching the regular season title. That would be Bill Self's tenth Big 12 championship in ten years at Kansas. That'll do.
#13 Michigan State at #20 Michigan
The Big Ten title could be on the line here. Michigan (10-3 in the conference) has already won at Michigan State (11-3), although the Spartans didn't have Adreian Payne in that game. Payne is back for what should be a highly entertaining rematch that could hinge on how healthy Keith Appling's wrist feels.
Tuesday, February 18, 2014
Arizona: Suddenly, Not A Number One Seed
The Arizona Wildcats dominated the first two-thirds of the college basketball season. They won the NIT Season Tip-Off by beating Duke in Madison Square Garden. They won true road games at San Diego State and Michigan, two teams that currently occupy first place in their respective conferences. And at the end of January, they were undefeated at 21-0 overall, 8-0 in the Pac-12, and seemingly a lock for the top overall seed in the NCAA Tournament.
So the idea that Arizona might not even receive a #1 seed in the tournament sounds a bit preposterous. But that scenario is becoming more and more likely with each passing week, because of one important fact: the Selection Committee considers injuries when doling out seeds. All of Arizona's significant wins came with Brandon Ashley in the starting lineup -- and his foot will prevent him from playing again this season. That injury certainly doesn't invalidate those wins, but it does place the onus back on Arizona to prove that the Ashley-less version of this team isn't significantly worse than the one that was widely championed as the favorite to win the national championship. If it can convince the cognoscenti of that fact, then the Selection Committee can justify keeping the Wildcats on the top seed line despite the injury.
So far, though, Arizona hasn't fooled anyone into thinking that this post-Ashley team is on the same basketball plane as the pre-injury version. The Wildcats are 2-2 without Ashley (including the contest in which he suffered the injury) compared to 21-0 with him. That record could easily be 1-3 if not for a narrow escape at home over Oregon. After winning at San Diego State and at Michigan earlier in the season, Arizona has lost both of its road games this month, at California and at Arizona State. Their team shooting percentage in those two losses: 32% and 36%. If these offensive struggles continue, more road losses potentially loom with tricky games at Utah, at Colorado, and at Oregon still remaining. These early returns suggest that the current Arizona team simply isn't the same one that accumulated all those awesome wins a few months ago. That doesn't mean Arizona should be dropped down from a #1 to a #8 seed, or that this version of the team can't win the championship. It does, however, damage the legitimacy of Arizona's overall résumé in the eyes of a Selection Committee that takes such things into consideration when distributing those precious top overall seeds.
But there's another, far more ironic reason why the likelihood of a #1 seed is plummeting: because two of Arizona's prime competitors for those slots are actually going to benefit from their own injury situations. The obvious example is Michigan State. Like Arizona, the Spartans were one of the best teams in the country until they were struck by an injury plague that has resulted in four losses in seven games, including a home defeat to Nebraska. The difference between the two cases, though, lies in the fact that Michigan State's injured players are not out for the season like Brandon Ashley. Chances are that Keith Appling and Branden Dawson will be completely healthy before the NCAA Tournament begins, at which point Michigan State will be at full strength for the first time in months. Assuming that happens, the Selection Committee will likely give Michigan State a pass for the losses it suffered when it was playing with a depleted lineup. Arizona gets no such pass because Brandon Ashley isn't coming back; whatever Arizona is now is what Arizona will be in March. That puts Michigan State ahead of the Wildcats on the #1 seed pecking order.
The same goes for Florida. A short while ago, it seemed like Arizona was miles ahead of Florida because the Gators lost their two most significant road games -- at Wisconsin and at Connecticut. But like Michigan State, Florida will receive special consideration from the Selection Committee in some form because the Gators did not field their full team in either of those two losses. Scottie Wilbekin and Dorian Finney-Smith, two seniors who combine for 22 points per game, did not play at Wisconsin because of team-imposed suspensions. Against UConn, Florida played without a point guard in the final minutes because Wilbekin got hurt late and backup Kasey Hill missed the game with an ankle sprain; the Gators lost by one on a buzzer-beater. 23-0 against all other opponents, Florida has not lost a game with all of its players available. Therefore, in the eyes of the Selection Committee, Florida is virtually just as undefeated as Syracuse or Wichita State. And definitely ahead of Arizona in the line for a #1 seed.
So if the tournament started today, your number one seeds would be Syracuse, Wichita State, Florida, and a hypothetically-healthy-in-the-future Michigan State. Arizona's best chance of sneaking into that top four would come if Michigan State never manages to put its complete team on the floor. But even in that scenario, Arizona would still have to compete for that last spot with a team like Kansas (which should be a #1 if it wins the post-apocalyptic showdown that will be the Big 12 Tournament) or even San Diego State (which has a solid chance of finishing with just two losses). Remarkably, then, it appears as though it took less than three weeks for the team that dominated two-thirds of the season to lose its grip on a number-one seed that at one point was considered to be a foregone conclusion. And what was the cause? Not a dramatic locker room brawl or a string of positive drug tests or a head coach's mental breakdown. Just an injury to that team's fifth-most important player. As if you needed any more proof that greatness in college basketball is a delicate, delicate thing.
So far, though, Arizona hasn't fooled anyone into thinking that this post-Ashley team is on the same basketball plane as the pre-injury version. The Wildcats are 2-2 without Ashley (including the contest in which he suffered the injury) compared to 21-0 with him. That record could easily be 1-3 if not for a narrow escape at home over Oregon. After winning at San Diego State and at Michigan earlier in the season, Arizona has lost both of its road games this month, at California and at Arizona State. Their team shooting percentage in those two losses: 32% and 36%. If these offensive struggles continue, more road losses potentially loom with tricky games at Utah, at Colorado, and at Oregon still remaining. These early returns suggest that the current Arizona team simply isn't the same one that accumulated all those awesome wins a few months ago. That doesn't mean Arizona should be dropped down from a #1 to a #8 seed, or that this version of the team can't win the championship. It does, however, damage the legitimacy of Arizona's overall résumé in the eyes of a Selection Committee that takes such things into consideration when distributing those precious top overall seeds.
But there's another, far more ironic reason why the likelihood of a #1 seed is plummeting: because two of Arizona's prime competitors for those slots are actually going to benefit from their own injury situations. The obvious example is Michigan State. Like Arizona, the Spartans were one of the best teams in the country until they were struck by an injury plague that has resulted in four losses in seven games, including a home defeat to Nebraska. The difference between the two cases, though, lies in the fact that Michigan State's injured players are not out for the season like Brandon Ashley. Chances are that Keith Appling and Branden Dawson will be completely healthy before the NCAA Tournament begins, at which point Michigan State will be at full strength for the first time in months. Assuming that happens, the Selection Committee will likely give Michigan State a pass for the losses it suffered when it was playing with a depleted lineup. Arizona gets no such pass because Brandon Ashley isn't coming back; whatever Arizona is now is what Arizona will be in March. That puts Michigan State ahead of the Wildcats on the #1 seed pecking order.
The same goes for Florida. A short while ago, it seemed like Arizona was miles ahead of Florida because the Gators lost their two most significant road games -- at Wisconsin and at Connecticut. But like Michigan State, Florida will receive special consideration from the Selection Committee in some form because the Gators did not field their full team in either of those two losses. Scottie Wilbekin and Dorian Finney-Smith, two seniors who combine for 22 points per game, did not play at Wisconsin because of team-imposed suspensions. Against UConn, Florida played without a point guard in the final minutes because Wilbekin got hurt late and backup Kasey Hill missed the game with an ankle sprain; the Gators lost by one on a buzzer-beater. 23-0 against all other opponents, Florida has not lost a game with all of its players available. Therefore, in the eyes of the Selection Committee, Florida is virtually just as undefeated as Syracuse or Wichita State. And definitely ahead of Arizona in the line for a #1 seed.
So if the tournament started today, your number one seeds would be Syracuse, Wichita State, Florida, and a hypothetically-healthy-in-the-future Michigan State. Arizona's best chance of sneaking into that top four would come if Michigan State never manages to put its complete team on the floor. But even in that scenario, Arizona would still have to compete for that last spot with a team like Kansas (which should be a #1 if it wins the post-apocalyptic showdown that will be the Big 12 Tournament) or even San Diego State (which has a solid chance of finishing with just two losses). Remarkably, then, it appears as though it took less than three weeks for the team that dominated two-thirds of the season to lose its grip on a number-one seed that at one point was considered to be a foregone conclusion. And what was the cause? Not a dramatic locker room brawl or a string of positive drug tests or a head coach's mental breakdown. Just an injury to that team's fifth-most important player. As if you needed any more proof that greatness in college basketball is a delicate, delicate thing.
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Friday, February 14, 2014
Friday Power Rankings: Orange You Glad I Didn't Say Florida
1. SYRACUSE (24-0): A big 'thank you' goes out to Tyler Ennis on behalf of all fans. Not only did he provide us with perhaps this season's most memorable moment by sinking a 35-foot buzzer-beater at Pittsburgh; he also raised the stakes for next weekend by ensuring that Syracuse's undefeated record will be on the line during their huge rematch at Duke. Provided that the Orange beat N.C. State and Boston College between now and then. And with that one last-second heave, Ennis may have also single-handedly crippled Pittsburgh's NCAA Tournament seed. The Panthers were just a few seconds away from toppling the #1 team in the country; instead, they still can't lay claim to a single win over a likely tournament team this year, unless you're in a generous mood and want to count Stanford.
2. FLORIDA (22-2): Officially biting at Syracuse's heels. In a recent win over Alabama, Florida recorded assists on 22 of its 31 field goals. Six different players had at least three assists! The Gators might not have a single marquee star, but they're remarkably unselfish and team-oriented.
3. ARIZONA (23-1): It's immediately become clear that Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is capable of replacing Brandon Ashley's lost production in the starting lineup. In the two games since Ashley's injury, Hollis-Jefferson has totaled 30 points and 15 rebounds on excellent shooting numbers.
4. WICHITA STATE (26-0): If you're looking for reason why Syracuse and Wichita State are the last two teams without a loss, the answer probably lies with point guard play. As sensational as Tyler Ennis has been (136 assists, 35 turnovers), the Shockers' Fred VanVleet (133 assists, 36 turnovers) has been just as good.
5. KANSAS (18-6): Apologies to the Big Ten, but the Big 12 has been the best conference in college basketball this year. Kansas is a national title contender, and will be joined in the tournament by Iowa State, Texas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State. West Virginia was once considered irrelevant but now sits at 7-5 in the league after some great recent wins. Baylor is just 3-8 in the conference yet beat Kentucky on a neutral floor. Texas Tech won't make the tournament but beat both Oklahoma schools this week. TCU (0-11) is the only pushover among the ten teams in the conference.
6. MICHIGAN STATE (21-4): In two games without Keith Appling this week, the Spartans lost at Wisconsin by two on a last-second shot and then clobbered Northwestern. This team is deep enough to win without its point guard in part because of Travis Trice, who has totaled 29 points, 15 assists, and zero turnovers in three games since Appling's wrist injury.
7. DUKE (19-5): Jabari Parker's last four games, three of which were on the road: 21.5 points and 11 rebounds per game on 53% shooting. He's the main reason why Duke is now scoring the most points per 100 possessions of any team in the country.
8. VILLANOVA (22-2): The silent juggernaut of the 2014 season, Villanova is just crushing its opponents in February, winning its last four Big East games by the scores of 90-74, 81-58, 70-53, and 87-62. The Wildcats rank within the top 20 in the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency; the only other teams that can make that same claim are Syracuse, Michigan State, and Louisville.
9. SAINT LOUIS (22-2): This is partly a nod to the Atlantic 10 Conference, which is enjoying yet another banner season despite being perennially overlooked. Saint Louis is now 9-0 in a league that includes VCU, George Washington, Massachusetts, and Saint Joseph's, all of which are potentially NCAA Tournament teams. Saint Louis is also riding a 16-game winning streak, and its two losses came against Wisconsin and Wichita State. The only teams out there with a more efficient defense are Arizona and Virginia. And it's not like this season has come out of thin air -- the Billikens were a #4 seed in last year's tournament.
10. IOWA STATE (18-5): So, Iowa State may or may not be the tenth-best team in the country. They just got blown out at West Virginia. But there may not be a single team out there that can match the quality of Iowa State's top three players. Point guard DeAndre Kane is averaging 16 points and 6.5 assists per game on 47% shooting. Georges Niang is the ultimate point-forward, a six-foot-seven guy chipping in another 16 points and almost four assists per game. But the Big 12 Player of the Year might be their teammate, Melvin Ejim, who bumped up his per-game averages to 19 and 9 with a legendary performance against TCU this week: forty-eight points (48!!), a Big 12 record, and 18 rebounds, on 20-of-24 shooting. The Kane/Niang/Ejim trio leads a wide-open Iowa State offense that totals the most assists per game in the country; this is about as close as college basketball can get to its version of LeBron/Wade/Bosh.
Key Games to Watch This Weekend:
#25 Pittsburgh at North Carolina, 1:00 PM Saturday
This is literally Pittsburgh's last chance to beat a good team and prove that its 20-5 record isn't a mirage. Pitt won't face another quality opponent until the ACC tournament.
VCU at #12 Saint Louis, 2:00 PM Saturday
The surging Atlantic 10 gets its first big showdown of the year. Saint Louis is the nationally ranked team and the favorite, but VCU is having its typical season: 20-5 overall including a November win at Virginia that looks better and better with each passing week.
#3 Florida at #14 Kentucky, 9:00 PM Saturday
These two teams are exact inverses of each other on the traditional pundit's basketball spectrum. Florida is your ultimate "teamwork and veteran leadership" squad that doesn't have a top-ten draft pick but starts four seniors and gets by on experience, unselfishness, and tenacious defense. Kentucky, on the other hand, starts five freshmen who exhibit immaturity, oversized egos, and bad body language at times but who win games anyway because of their overwhelming, NBA-level talent. Kentucky needs this one more -- if not for its NCAA Tournament résumé, then for its perception, which has taken a hit these last few weeks.
#21 Wisconsin at #15 Michigan, 1:00 PM Sunday
Wisconsin winning at Michigan would make no empirical sense based on recent results, so bank on that happening.
#6 Villanova at #18 Creighton, 5:00 PM Sunday
The two best teams in the Big East facing off. In their first matchup, Creighton's high-powered offense unleashed a historic shooting barrage (21 of 35 from three-point range!) to blow Villanova out of its own building, 96-68. It wouldn't be surprising to see Villanova return the favor here.
2. FLORIDA (22-2): Officially biting at Syracuse's heels. In a recent win over Alabama, Florida recorded assists on 22 of its 31 field goals. Six different players had at least three assists! The Gators might not have a single marquee star, but they're remarkably unselfish and team-oriented.
3. ARIZONA (23-1): It's immediately become clear that Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is capable of replacing Brandon Ashley's lost production in the starting lineup. In the two games since Ashley's injury, Hollis-Jefferson has totaled 30 points and 15 rebounds on excellent shooting numbers.
4. WICHITA STATE (26-0): If you're looking for reason why Syracuse and Wichita State are the last two teams without a loss, the answer probably lies with point guard play. As sensational as Tyler Ennis has been (136 assists, 35 turnovers), the Shockers' Fred VanVleet (133 assists, 36 turnovers) has been just as good.
5. KANSAS (18-6): Apologies to the Big Ten, but the Big 12 has been the best conference in college basketball this year. Kansas is a national title contender, and will be joined in the tournament by Iowa State, Texas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State. West Virginia was once considered irrelevant but now sits at 7-5 in the league after some great recent wins. Baylor is just 3-8 in the conference yet beat Kentucky on a neutral floor. Texas Tech won't make the tournament but beat both Oklahoma schools this week. TCU (0-11) is the only pushover among the ten teams in the conference.
6. MICHIGAN STATE (21-4): In two games without Keith Appling this week, the Spartans lost at Wisconsin by two on a last-second shot and then clobbered Northwestern. This team is deep enough to win without its point guard in part because of Travis Trice, who has totaled 29 points, 15 assists, and zero turnovers in three games since Appling's wrist injury.
7. DUKE (19-5): Jabari Parker's last four games, three of which were on the road: 21.5 points and 11 rebounds per game on 53% shooting. He's the main reason why Duke is now scoring the most points per 100 possessions of any team in the country.
8. VILLANOVA (22-2): The silent juggernaut of the 2014 season, Villanova is just crushing its opponents in February, winning its last four Big East games by the scores of 90-74, 81-58, 70-53, and 87-62. The Wildcats rank within the top 20 in the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency; the only other teams that can make that same claim are Syracuse, Michigan State, and Louisville.
9. SAINT LOUIS (22-2): This is partly a nod to the Atlantic 10 Conference, which is enjoying yet another banner season despite being perennially overlooked. Saint Louis is now 9-0 in a league that includes VCU, George Washington, Massachusetts, and Saint Joseph's, all of which are potentially NCAA Tournament teams. Saint Louis is also riding a 16-game winning streak, and its two losses came against Wisconsin and Wichita State. The only teams out there with a more efficient defense are Arizona and Virginia. And it's not like this season has come out of thin air -- the Billikens were a #4 seed in last year's tournament.
10. IOWA STATE (18-5): So, Iowa State may or may not be the tenth-best team in the country. They just got blown out at West Virginia. But there may not be a single team out there that can match the quality of Iowa State's top three players. Point guard DeAndre Kane is averaging 16 points and 6.5 assists per game on 47% shooting. Georges Niang is the ultimate point-forward, a six-foot-seven guy chipping in another 16 points and almost four assists per game. But the Big 12 Player of the Year might be their teammate, Melvin Ejim, who bumped up his per-game averages to 19 and 9 with a legendary performance against TCU this week: forty-eight points (48!!), a Big 12 record, and 18 rebounds, on 20-of-24 shooting. The Kane/Niang/Ejim trio leads a wide-open Iowa State offense that totals the most assists per game in the country; this is about as close as college basketball can get to its version of LeBron/Wade/Bosh.
Key Games to Watch This Weekend:
#25 Pittsburgh at North Carolina, 1:00 PM Saturday
This is literally Pittsburgh's last chance to beat a good team and prove that its 20-5 record isn't a mirage. Pitt won't face another quality opponent until the ACC tournament.
VCU at #12 Saint Louis, 2:00 PM Saturday
The surging Atlantic 10 gets its first big showdown of the year. Saint Louis is the nationally ranked team and the favorite, but VCU is having its typical season: 20-5 overall including a November win at Virginia that looks better and better with each passing week.
#3 Florida at #14 Kentucky, 9:00 PM Saturday
These two teams are exact inverses of each other on the traditional pundit's basketball spectrum. Florida is your ultimate "teamwork and veteran leadership" squad that doesn't have a top-ten draft pick but starts four seniors and gets by on experience, unselfishness, and tenacious defense. Kentucky, on the other hand, starts five freshmen who exhibit immaturity, oversized egos, and bad body language at times but who win games anyway because of their overwhelming, NBA-level talent. Kentucky needs this one more -- if not for its NCAA Tournament résumé, then for its perception, which has taken a hit these last few weeks.
#21 Wisconsin at #15 Michigan, 1:00 PM Sunday
Wisconsin winning at Michigan would make no empirical sense based on recent results, so bank on that happening.
#6 Villanova at #18 Creighton, 5:00 PM Sunday
The two best teams in the Big East facing off. In their first matchup, Creighton's high-powered offense unleashed a historic shooting barrage (21 of 35 from three-point range!) to blow Villanova out of its own building, 96-68. It wouldn't be surprising to see Villanova return the favor here.
Tuesday, February 11, 2014
Michigan Keeps Rolling, and Other Results From Tuesday
Michigan 70, Ohio State 60
The Big 10 remains a hot mess. Ohio State was finally in a groove entering this game, and Michigan had lost two out of three. Naturally, then, the Wolverines scored 44 points in the second half to win in Columbus for the first time in over a decade. Michigan may not be the best team in this conference, but thanks to some well-timed road wins, they've suddenly got the best chance of winning the regular season title. When was the last time any team won on the road against Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Ohio State in the same season? For Ohio State, the story was the same as always: LaQuinton Ross (24 points) and Lenzelle Smith (13) are the only players on this roster capable of offense. Three 3-point makes in 20 attempts isn't going to cut it.
Texas 87, Oklahoma State 68
There was little hope of Oklahoma State winning this road game without the suspended Marcus Smart. As it turns out, some things in college basketball turn out exactly how you expect them to: Texas ran the Smart-less Cowboys out of the gym with a 54-point barrage in the first half. Oklahoma State is legitimately at risk of an epic collapse: once 15-2 and considered to be a Final Four possibility, they've lost five straight and still have to play two more games (vs Oklahoma, at Baylor) without Smart. Texas, meanwhile, continues to surprise, and is on pace to be that one random #5 seed in the NCAA Tournament that nobody ever even heard about once during the season.
Florida 67, Tennessee 58
Florida never wins at Tennessee. In the Gators' last eight games in Knoxville, their record was 1-7. Now it's 2-7, even though they shot just 36% from the field as a team (they did, however, unleash some of their beastly defense by holding Tennessee to just seven field goals on 24 attempts in the second half). So if it wasn't official before, it is now: Florida is out of the SEC's league. The only real obstacle between them and an undefeated conference record is this weekend's showdown at Kentucky. That game will feature the only locks for the NCAA Tournament in this entire conference. All the other SEC "contenders" -- Tennessee, LSU, Mississippi, Missouri, whoever -- will probably be squarely on the bubble when Selection Sunday rolls around. It would be quite an embarrassment if a major conference only got two teams into the field of 68.
Wichita State 78, Southern Illinois 67
Wichita State didn't even play that well. They still got double-digit scoring out of five different players and sleepwalked their way to a home win over yet another overmatched Missouri Valley opponent. That's 26 straight victories without a loss. Even with five games still go to, it would now qualify as a significant surprise if Wichita State didn't finish the regular season with an undefeated record.
The Big 10 remains a hot mess. Ohio State was finally in a groove entering this game, and Michigan had lost two out of three. Naturally, then, the Wolverines scored 44 points in the second half to win in Columbus for the first time in over a decade. Michigan may not be the best team in this conference, but thanks to some well-timed road wins, they've suddenly got the best chance of winning the regular season title. When was the last time any team won on the road against Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Ohio State in the same season? For Ohio State, the story was the same as always: LaQuinton Ross (24 points) and Lenzelle Smith (13) are the only players on this roster capable of offense. Three 3-point makes in 20 attempts isn't going to cut it.
Texas 87, Oklahoma State 68
There was little hope of Oklahoma State winning this road game without the suspended Marcus Smart. As it turns out, some things in college basketball turn out exactly how you expect them to: Texas ran the Smart-less Cowboys out of the gym with a 54-point barrage in the first half. Oklahoma State is legitimately at risk of an epic collapse: once 15-2 and considered to be a Final Four possibility, they've lost five straight and still have to play two more games (vs Oklahoma, at Baylor) without Smart. Texas, meanwhile, continues to surprise, and is on pace to be that one random #5 seed in the NCAA Tournament that nobody ever even heard about once during the season.
Florida 67, Tennessee 58
Florida never wins at Tennessee. In the Gators' last eight games in Knoxville, their record was 1-7. Now it's 2-7, even though they shot just 36% from the field as a team (they did, however, unleash some of their beastly defense by holding Tennessee to just seven field goals on 24 attempts in the second half). So if it wasn't official before, it is now: Florida is out of the SEC's league. The only real obstacle between them and an undefeated conference record is this weekend's showdown at Kentucky. That game will feature the only locks for the NCAA Tournament in this entire conference. All the other SEC "contenders" -- Tennessee, LSU, Mississippi, Missouri, whoever -- will probably be squarely on the bubble when Selection Sunday rolls around. It would be quite an embarrassment if a major conference only got two teams into the field of 68.
Wichita State 78, Southern Illinois 67
Wichita State didn't even play that well. They still got double-digit scoring out of five different players and sleepwalked their way to a home win over yet another overmatched Missouri Valley opponent. That's 26 straight victories without a loss. Even with five games still go to, it would now qualify as a significant surprise if Wichita State didn't finish the regular season with an undefeated record.
Thursday, February 6, 2014
Friday Power Rankings: The Clockwork Orange
1. SYRACUSE (22-0): Within the span of just a few hours last Saturday night, Syracuse won the most exhilarating college basketball game of the season and Arizona suffered both its first loss and a key injury. That was enough for the AP and Coaches polls to anoint the Orange as the new #1 team in the country and it's difficult to disagree. Their toughest road test of the year comes on Wednesday when they visit Pittsburgh, a legitimate candidate to hand this team its first loss.
2. KANSAS (17-5): For some reason, the Jayhawks dropped to eighth in the AP poll after suffering their fifth loss of the season this week, at Texas. First of all -- Texas is 18-4 overall, 7-2 (and in second place) in the Big 12, and on its way to the NCAA Tournament. And more importantly -- five losses is not a big number for Kansas, which has subjected itself to an unthinkably hellish schedule. Here's a few of their opponents: Florida, San Diego State, Villanova, Duke, Colorado, New Mexico, Georgetown, Toledo, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Kansas State, Iowa State (twice), Baylor (twice), and now Texas. Eight of those teams are currently ranked nationally in the AP Poll, and most of them will be in the NCAA Tournament. Kansas' 11-5 record against those opponents should be a plus, not a minus.
3. FLORIDA (20-2): The Gators have surrendered 70 points in a regulation game just once; they haven't lost since December 2nd; their starting lineup includes four seniors who have been to the Elite Eight in each of the last three seasons. Quietly, a #1 seed is becoming increasingly likely.
4. ARIZONA (22-1): The Wildcats' long-term outlook has changed rather significantly after the loss at Cal -- not because of the defeat itself, but because of the season-ending foot injury sustained by Brandon Ashley. A six-foot-eight forward averaging 11.5 points and 5.8 rebounds per game, Ashley was a key third big man who could stretch the floor and make free throws (neither of which are skills that the more-heralded Aaron Gordon possesses at this juncture). Arizona was only using seven legitimate rotation players when Ashley was healthy; without him, the team's depth and versatility take a serious hit. In their first full game without him, they barely sneaked past Oregon at home. Similar struggles may follow.
5. WICHITA STATE (24-0): On Wednesday, the Shockers passed the most challenging test they had left on their schedule by winning at Indiana State, 65-58. With only seven games remaining until the Missouri Valley's conference tournament, ESPN's Basketball Power Index estimates that Wichita State now has a 65% chance of finishing the regular season without a loss.
6. MICHIGAN STATE (20-3): The injury cards keep being reshuffled: Adreian Payne made his successful return from a foot sprain against Penn State on Thursday, but Keith Appling missed that same game because of a wrist injury that may prevent him from playing at Wisconsin. That's Michigan State's snake-bitten season in a nutshell. Tom Izzo has been forced to use 13 different starting lineups in 23 games. Health remains the biggest (and perhaps only) obstacle for the Spartans.
7. SAN DIEGO STATE (20-1) and 8. CINCINNATI (22-2): These teams are remarkably similar: both play elite defense, struggle to score, and rely heavily on one superstar in crunch time. For San Diego State, that star is Xavier Thames, who keyed a double-digit comeback win at Boise State by scoring 10 straight points and recording the game-winning assist in the final minutes. And for Cincinnati it's Sean Kilpatrick, who put up a monster 26-point, 12-rebound, six-assist effort to carry his team to a narrow win over Connecticut.
9. DUKE (18-5): The Blue Devils proved that it's possible for a team's stock to rise after a gut-wrenching loss. Despite significant foul trouble and Herculean performances from C.J. Fair and Jerami Grant, Duke almost managed to knock off undefeated Syracuse in front of the largest crowd in the Carrier Dome's history. Even factoring in that loss, Duke has been one of the best teams in the country over the last several weeks and the schedule down the stretch is a cakewalk -- with the notable exception of a rematch with the Orange on February 22nd.
10. VILLANOVA (20-2): The Big East is quietly having one if its most disappointing seasons in years. Syracuse, Louisville, and Pittsburgh are gone; Marquette and Georgetown are underachieving; and newcomers Butler and Xavier have done little of note. One of the league's only bright spots (along with Creighton) has been Villanova, which won the Battle for Atlantis tournament back in November by beating Kansas and Iowa on a neutral floor. Since then, the Wildcats have used their depth and balance to emerge as the favorites to win the new-look Big East.
Key Games to Watch This Weekend:
#10 Michigan at #17 Iowa, 2:00 PM Saturday
Will the Big 10 ever provide us with some semblance of order or clarity? Silly question.
#23 Gonzaga at #24 Memphis, 9:00 PM Saturday
Gonzaga has once again amassed its typically-gaudy record (21-3, 11-1 in the West Coast Conference), but unlike last year, the team hasn't beaten anybody of note. This game will be the Bulldogs' only chance to beef up their tournament résumé and prove that they're relevant.
#9 Michigan State at Wisconsin, 1:00 PM Sunday
Once the beneficiaries of an elite home field advantage, the Wisconsin Badgers have somehow lost three consecutive home games (one to Northwestern!) for the first time since 1997-98. Undefeated as recently as a month ago, this usually-consistent program has now lost five out of seven overall and another defeat would leave them at just 5-6 in the Big 10. Fortunately for the wounded home team, the Spartans' Keith Appling is a question mark because of his wrist injury. It's a golden opportunity for Wisconsin to finally right the ship.
2. KANSAS (17-5): For some reason, the Jayhawks dropped to eighth in the AP poll after suffering their fifth loss of the season this week, at Texas. First of all -- Texas is 18-4 overall, 7-2 (and in second place) in the Big 12, and on its way to the NCAA Tournament. And more importantly -- five losses is not a big number for Kansas, which has subjected itself to an unthinkably hellish schedule. Here's a few of their opponents: Florida, San Diego State, Villanova, Duke, Colorado, New Mexico, Georgetown, Toledo, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Kansas State, Iowa State (twice), Baylor (twice), and now Texas. Eight of those teams are currently ranked nationally in the AP Poll, and most of them will be in the NCAA Tournament. Kansas' 11-5 record against those opponents should be a plus, not a minus.
3. FLORIDA (20-2): The Gators have surrendered 70 points in a regulation game just once; they haven't lost since December 2nd; their starting lineup includes four seniors who have been to the Elite Eight in each of the last three seasons. Quietly, a #1 seed is becoming increasingly likely.
4. ARIZONA (22-1): The Wildcats' long-term outlook has changed rather significantly after the loss at Cal -- not because of the defeat itself, but because of the season-ending foot injury sustained by Brandon Ashley. A six-foot-eight forward averaging 11.5 points and 5.8 rebounds per game, Ashley was a key third big man who could stretch the floor and make free throws (neither of which are skills that the more-heralded Aaron Gordon possesses at this juncture). Arizona was only using seven legitimate rotation players when Ashley was healthy; without him, the team's depth and versatility take a serious hit. In their first full game without him, they barely sneaked past Oregon at home. Similar struggles may follow.
5. WICHITA STATE (24-0): On Wednesday, the Shockers passed the most challenging test they had left on their schedule by winning at Indiana State, 65-58. With only seven games remaining until the Missouri Valley's conference tournament, ESPN's Basketball Power Index estimates that Wichita State now has a 65% chance of finishing the regular season without a loss.
6. MICHIGAN STATE (20-3): The injury cards keep being reshuffled: Adreian Payne made his successful return from a foot sprain against Penn State on Thursday, but Keith Appling missed that same game because of a wrist injury that may prevent him from playing at Wisconsin. That's Michigan State's snake-bitten season in a nutshell. Tom Izzo has been forced to use 13 different starting lineups in 23 games. Health remains the biggest (and perhaps only) obstacle for the Spartans.
7. SAN DIEGO STATE (20-1) and 8. CINCINNATI (22-2): These teams are remarkably similar: both play elite defense, struggle to score, and rely heavily on one superstar in crunch time. For San Diego State, that star is Xavier Thames, who keyed a double-digit comeback win at Boise State by scoring 10 straight points and recording the game-winning assist in the final minutes. And for Cincinnati it's Sean Kilpatrick, who put up a monster 26-point, 12-rebound, six-assist effort to carry his team to a narrow win over Connecticut.
9. DUKE (18-5): The Blue Devils proved that it's possible for a team's stock to rise after a gut-wrenching loss. Despite significant foul trouble and Herculean performances from C.J. Fair and Jerami Grant, Duke almost managed to knock off undefeated Syracuse in front of the largest crowd in the Carrier Dome's history. Even factoring in that loss, Duke has been one of the best teams in the country over the last several weeks and the schedule down the stretch is a cakewalk -- with the notable exception of a rematch with the Orange on February 22nd.
10. VILLANOVA (20-2): The Big East is quietly having one if its most disappointing seasons in years. Syracuse, Louisville, and Pittsburgh are gone; Marquette and Georgetown are underachieving; and newcomers Butler and Xavier have done little of note. One of the league's only bright spots (along with Creighton) has been Villanova, which won the Battle for Atlantis tournament back in November by beating Kansas and Iowa on a neutral floor. Since then, the Wildcats have used their depth and balance to emerge as the favorites to win the new-look Big East.
Key Games to Watch This Weekend:
#10 Michigan at #17 Iowa, 2:00 PM Saturday
Will the Big 10 ever provide us with some semblance of order or clarity? Silly question.
#23 Gonzaga at #24 Memphis, 9:00 PM Saturday
Gonzaga has once again amassed its typically-gaudy record (21-3, 11-1 in the West Coast Conference), but unlike last year, the team hasn't beaten anybody of note. This game will be the Bulldogs' only chance to beef up their tournament résumé and prove that they're relevant.
#9 Michigan State at Wisconsin, 1:00 PM Sunday
Once the beneficiaries of an elite home field advantage, the Wisconsin Badgers have somehow lost three consecutive home games (one to Northwestern!) for the first time since 1997-98. Undefeated as recently as a month ago, this usually-consistent program has now lost five out of seven overall and another defeat would leave them at just 5-6 in the Big 10. Fortunately for the wounded home team, the Spartans' Keith Appling is a question mark because of his wrist injury. It's a golden opportunity for Wisconsin to finally right the ship.
Thursday, January 30, 2014
Friday Power Rankings: Don't Mess With Michigan
1. ARIZONA (21-0): With ten minutes to play in Wednesday's game at Stanford, Arizona was trailing by a score of 53-49. They ended up winning 60-57. So over the final ten minutes, Arizona's defense only surrendered four total points and forced Stanford to miss all but one of its final 13 shots. That'll work.
2. KANSAS (16-4): Another week, another win over a ranked opponent. By completing a season sweep over Iowa State, the Jayhawks remained undefeated in the Big 12. More bad news for everybody else: in his last two games, Andrew Wiggins has scored a combined 46 points on 18-of-29 shooting from the field.
3. SYRACUSE (19-0): Just like Arizona, Syracuse used stifling defense to avoid a potential upset on the road. The Orange were losing to Miami with eight minutes remaining, but only surrendered one field goal the rest of the game to pull out the win.
4. FLORIDA (18-2): Now on a twelve-game winning streak. What's really impressive about this team is the fact that five different players are averaging at least ten points per game. And the Gators could add to that depth thanks to news that forward Chris Walker -- one of the many highly-touted members of this year's freshman class -- has finally been cleared to play.
5. WICHITA STATE (22-0): In lieu of a comment, a dunk is worth a thousand words:
6. MICHIGAN STATE (19-2): Down two starters, the Spartans still had a solid week by beating Iowa on the road after losing to Michigan. The NCAA Tournament will be significantly better if this team is fully healthy when the time comes.
7. SAN DIEGO STATE (18-1): Where did this come from? In the preseason, San Diego State was picked to finish fourth in a mediocre Mountain West conference. The Aztecs have now won seventeen straight games since losing to Arizona back on November 14th. They're single-handedly making the bland Mountain West Conference relevant.
8. DUKE (17-4): For much of the season, the Blue Devils have been a fairly awful defensive and rebounding team. But then they suddenly collected a whopping 27 offensive rebounds against Florida State, and unleashed an excellent defensive performance against a good Pittsburgh offense. If Duke has improved even marginally in those two areas, to go along with its already-elite offense ... look out.
9. MICHIGAN (16-4): Maybe the hottest team in sports right now. Over the past week, Michigan has beaten Wisconsin (then ranked #3 in the country), Iowa (#10), and Michigan State (#3). Two of those games were on the road. The Wolverines' offense has become unstoppable -- Nik Stauskas and Glenn Robinson III are future pros, and Derrick Walton and Caris LeVert have emerged as reliable secondary options. After starting the season with a dubious 6-4 record and losing Mitch McGary to back surgery, Michigan has won ten straight and launched itself to the top of the Big 10 standings. An unbelievable turnaround.
10. CINCINNATI (20-2): On Thursday night, Cincinnati built a 17-point lead at Louisville, blew all of it, and then won anyway. That impressive 69-66 victory kept the Bearcats undefeated in league play and cements their status as the best team in the American Athletic Conference. Much like San Diego State, Cincinnati has vastly outperformed meager expectations behind dominant defensive play and an extended winning streak (no losses since early December). It's not pretty, but these guys are methodically grinding out wins.
Key Games to Watch This Weekend:
#24 Ohio State at #14 Wisconsin, 12:00 PM Saturday
Three weeks ago, Ohio State was the #3 team in the country, and Wisconsin was #4. Remarkably, they've combined to win just two of their last eleven games. On Wednesday, Ohio State lost at home to Penn State and Wisconsin lost at home to Northwestern. Not too long ago, those results would have been unthinkable. Both of these teams desperately need to stop the bleeding.
#17 Duke at #2 Syracuse, 6:30 PM Saturday
Obviously a huge and well-hyped game, one that will include multiple first-round draft picks, two Hall of Fame coaches, and an undefeated record on the line.
#1 Arizona at California, 10:30 PM Saturday
Arizona has been somewhat vulnerable recently and Cal has both the talent and the desperation to pull off the colossal upset. Maaaaybe.
Virginia at #18 Pittsburgh, 12:30 PM Sunday
It's shaping up to be a character-defining weekend in the ACC. If Duke-Syracuse features the two best teams in the conference, then Virginia-Pitt is a showdown between #3 and #4. Pitt needs this one badly -- after coming up short against Syracuse and Duke, the Panthers still haven't beaten a single team projected to make the NCAA Tournament. Their reputation is suddenly at stake here.
2. KANSAS (16-4): Another week, another win over a ranked opponent. By completing a season sweep over Iowa State, the Jayhawks remained undefeated in the Big 12. More bad news for everybody else: in his last two games, Andrew Wiggins has scored a combined 46 points on 18-of-29 shooting from the field.
3. SYRACUSE (19-0): Just like Arizona, Syracuse used stifling defense to avoid a potential upset on the road. The Orange were losing to Miami with eight minutes remaining, but only surrendered one field goal the rest of the game to pull out the win.
4. FLORIDA (18-2): Now on a twelve-game winning streak. What's really impressive about this team is the fact that five different players are averaging at least ten points per game. And the Gators could add to that depth thanks to news that forward Chris Walker -- one of the many highly-touted members of this year's freshman class -- has finally been cleared to play.
5. WICHITA STATE (22-0): In lieu of a comment, a dunk is worth a thousand words:
6. MICHIGAN STATE (19-2): Down two starters, the Spartans still had a solid week by beating Iowa on the road after losing to Michigan. The NCAA Tournament will be significantly better if this team is fully healthy when the time comes.
7. SAN DIEGO STATE (18-1): Where did this come from? In the preseason, San Diego State was picked to finish fourth in a mediocre Mountain West conference. The Aztecs have now won seventeen straight games since losing to Arizona back on November 14th. They're single-handedly making the bland Mountain West Conference relevant.
8. DUKE (17-4): For much of the season, the Blue Devils have been a fairly awful defensive and rebounding team. But then they suddenly collected a whopping 27 offensive rebounds against Florida State, and unleashed an excellent defensive performance against a good Pittsburgh offense. If Duke has improved even marginally in those two areas, to go along with its already-elite offense ... look out.
9. MICHIGAN (16-4): Maybe the hottest team in sports right now. Over the past week, Michigan has beaten Wisconsin (then ranked #3 in the country), Iowa (#10), and Michigan State (#3). Two of those games were on the road. The Wolverines' offense has become unstoppable -- Nik Stauskas and Glenn Robinson III are future pros, and Derrick Walton and Caris LeVert have emerged as reliable secondary options. After starting the season with a dubious 6-4 record and losing Mitch McGary to back surgery, Michigan has won ten straight and launched itself to the top of the Big 10 standings. An unbelievable turnaround.
10. CINCINNATI (20-2): On Thursday night, Cincinnati built a 17-point lead at Louisville, blew all of it, and then won anyway. That impressive 69-66 victory kept the Bearcats undefeated in league play and cements their status as the best team in the American Athletic Conference. Much like San Diego State, Cincinnati has vastly outperformed meager expectations behind dominant defensive play and an extended winning streak (no losses since early December). It's not pretty, but these guys are methodically grinding out wins.
Key Games to Watch This Weekend:
#24 Ohio State at #14 Wisconsin, 12:00 PM Saturday
Three weeks ago, Ohio State was the #3 team in the country, and Wisconsin was #4. Remarkably, they've combined to win just two of their last eleven games. On Wednesday, Ohio State lost at home to Penn State and Wisconsin lost at home to Northwestern. Not too long ago, those results would have been unthinkable. Both of these teams desperately need to stop the bleeding.
#17 Duke at #2 Syracuse, 6:30 PM Saturday
Obviously a huge and well-hyped game, one that will include multiple first-round draft picks, two Hall of Fame coaches, and an undefeated record on the line.
#1 Arizona at California, 10:30 PM Saturday
Arizona has been somewhat vulnerable recently and Cal has both the talent and the desperation to pull off the colossal upset. Maaaaybe.
Virginia at #18 Pittsburgh, 12:30 PM Sunday
It's shaping up to be a character-defining weekend in the ACC. If Duke-Syracuse features the two best teams in the conference, then Virginia-Pitt is a showdown between #3 and #4. Pitt needs this one badly -- after coming up short against Syracuse and Duke, the Panthers still haven't beaten a single team projected to make the NCAA Tournament. Their reputation is suddenly at stake here.
Tuesday, January 28, 2014
Kentucky Gets Mugged, And Other Results From Tuesday
LSU 87, Kentucky 82
The final score doesn't exactly reflect this, but here's what happened: LSU cornered Kentucky in a dark alley, kicked it in the groin, and stole its wallet. LSU got out to an early 22-6 lead and spent virtually the entire second half up double-digits. And furious late rally by Kentucky came up short when the Wildcats inexplicably let the final seconds run off the clock without committing a foul. They were woeful throughout the game though, with the Harrison twins being the main culprits -- they combined for such just two total assists. Two. LSU isn't even that good. With two SEC losses already on its record, and two games against Florida still ahead, Kentucky probably ceded the conference title to Florida on Tuesday night.
Michigan State 71, Iowa 69 (OT)
A huge blown opportunity for Iowa. The Hawkeyes were the better team for much of the game against short-handed Michigan State. They made 19 more free throws than their opponent and were up by six with six minutes to play. But somehow one of the best offenses in the country managed to make only one field goal over the final 14 minutes of the game, enabling the Spartans sneak away with a win. Big kudos to Michigan State for winning a difficult road game despite missing its two leading rebounders.
Virginia 68, Notre Dame 53
All Virginia does is completely smother inferior competition. This was the Cavaliers' seventh victory in the ACC and they've won all of those games by at least 12 points (four of them by at least 20). Heading into a key road showdown with Pittsburgh on Sunday, Virginia is actually emerging as a darkhorse candidate to win the entire ACC. After Pitt, their remaining schedule looks like this: Boston College, at Georgia Tech, Maryland, at Clemson, at Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Miami, Syracuse, at Maryland. Every single one of those games is winnable. If Virginia keeps taking care of business against weak opponents, the ACC title could come down to that home showdown against Syracuse on March 1st.
West Virginia 66, Baylor 64
How To Lose An NCAA Tournament Bid In Three Weeks: The Baylor Story. Entering conference play, Baylor was 12-1 overall, ranked as the seventh-best team in the country according to the AP poll, including a win over Kentucky on a neutral floor. Since then, they've completely fallen apart. Baylor has lost six of its seven Big 12 games, culminating in this embarrassing home loss to West Virginia. And its next three matchups are all against ranked opponents (the Oklahoma schools and Kansas). After that difficult stretch, Baylor could easily be 1-9 in the Big 12 and 13-10 overall. This collapse speaks to the impressive depth in the Big 12 conference, which could send six of its ten members to the NCAA Tournament. Baylor will not be among them.
Wichita State 57, Loyola 45
Twenty-two wins, zero losses, and the undefeated dream remains alive.
The final score doesn't exactly reflect this, but here's what happened: LSU cornered Kentucky in a dark alley, kicked it in the groin, and stole its wallet. LSU got out to an early 22-6 lead and spent virtually the entire second half up double-digits. And furious late rally by Kentucky came up short when the Wildcats inexplicably let the final seconds run off the clock without committing a foul. They were woeful throughout the game though, with the Harrison twins being the main culprits -- they combined for such just two total assists. Two. LSU isn't even that good. With two SEC losses already on its record, and two games against Florida still ahead, Kentucky probably ceded the conference title to Florida on Tuesday night.
Michigan State 71, Iowa 69 (OT)
A huge blown opportunity for Iowa. The Hawkeyes were the better team for much of the game against short-handed Michigan State. They made 19 more free throws than their opponent and were up by six with six minutes to play. But somehow one of the best offenses in the country managed to make only one field goal over the final 14 minutes of the game, enabling the Spartans sneak away with a win. Big kudos to Michigan State for winning a difficult road game despite missing its two leading rebounders.
Virginia 68, Notre Dame 53
All Virginia does is completely smother inferior competition. This was the Cavaliers' seventh victory in the ACC and they've won all of those games by at least 12 points (four of them by at least 20). Heading into a key road showdown with Pittsburgh on Sunday, Virginia is actually emerging as a darkhorse candidate to win the entire ACC. After Pitt, their remaining schedule looks like this: Boston College, at Georgia Tech, Maryland, at Clemson, at Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Miami, Syracuse, at Maryland. Every single one of those games is winnable. If Virginia keeps taking care of business against weak opponents, the ACC title could come down to that home showdown against Syracuse on March 1st.
West Virginia 66, Baylor 64
How To Lose An NCAA Tournament Bid In Three Weeks: The Baylor Story. Entering conference play, Baylor was 12-1 overall, ranked as the seventh-best team in the country according to the AP poll, including a win over Kentucky on a neutral floor. Since then, they've completely fallen apart. Baylor has lost six of its seven Big 12 games, culminating in this embarrassing home loss to West Virginia. And its next three matchups are all against ranked opponents (the Oklahoma schools and Kansas). After that difficult stretch, Baylor could easily be 1-9 in the Big 12 and 13-10 overall. This collapse speaks to the impressive depth in the Big 12 conference, which could send six of its ten members to the NCAA Tournament. Baylor will not be among them.
Wichita State 57, Loyola 45
Twenty-two wins, zero losses, and the undefeated dream remains alive.
Friday, January 24, 2014
Friday Power Rankings: Raising Arizona
1. ARIZONA (19-0): The sorry Pac-12 seems content to simply roll out the red carpet for Arizona. Oregon, which went into January undefeated, has collapsed by losing five in a row. Colorado's best player tore his ACL and will miss the rest of the season. Cal and UCLA have done little of note. Fortunately, Arizona already beefed up its NCAA Tournament résumé during nonconference play by defeating Duke, San Diego State, and Michigan, all away from home. The Wildcats are already a lock for a #1 seed, and it's not even February yet.
2. KANSAS (14-4): Ranking a four-loss Kansas team ahead of undefeated Syracuse has more to do with the bigger picture than just win-loss records. Kansas is simply the most talented team in the country. There's even a chance that this team will produce the top two picks in the NBA draft, much like Kentucky did in their national championship season with Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. After playing the most grueling nonconference schedule in the country, Kansas has now won five consecutive Big 12 games against teams that are all projected to make the NCAA Tournament: Oklahoma, Kansas State, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, and Baylor. And Sportsbook already lists Kansas as the favorite to win the championship, even ahead of Arizona.
3. SYRACUSE (18-0): Their only blemish is the fact that they've played just three true road games: against St. John's, Virginia Tech, and Boston College. The real tests will come during the final month of the season, when the Orange will travel to Pittsburgh, Duke, Virginia, and Florida State.
4. LOUISVILLE (17-3): Like Kansas, this aggressive Louisville ranking requires a little faith. The Cardinals have played a surprisingly weak schedule thanks to the end of the Big East; the new American Athletic Conference offers far fewer opportunities for signature victories. In fact, their win over Connecticut this week was perhaps their first victory against a team with a good chance to be in the NCAA Tournament. But at the same time, several significant pieces from last year's championship team are still around: Russ Smith, Luke Hancock, Montrezl Harrell, Wayne Blackshear, and of course, Rick Pitino. The defense is still elite. On Wednesday, Louisville was without its point guard for a road game at South Florida, and still won by the lopsided score of 86-47. How many teams could pull that off?
5. MICHIGAN STATE (18-1): Maybe the biggest wildcard in the top ten. When healthy, the Spartans could be the best team in the country. But they're never healthy. Adreian Payne and Gary Harris have missed games at different points this season, and now Branden Dawson will be out for a month after channeling the spirit of Kevin Brown and breaking a bone in his hand by slamming it on a table. It could be a while before Michigan State is back to full strength, and the Big 10 schedule is about to get rough, starting with a home game against streaking Michigan this weekend.
6. WICHITA STATE (20-0): On Wednesday, they were trailing by three at halftime at Illinois State. Then the Shockers won the second half by a 45-27 margin. Not much else to say at this point -- Wichita State will probably lose a game somewhere along the line, but you'll lose money by betting against them.
7. FLORIDA (16-2): One of Florida's two losses was at Wisconsin back on November 12th; the other came at the hands of a fluky buzzer-beater at Connecticut. Since that second defeat, they've beaten Kansas and won ten games in a row. Florida is so consistently good every year that it's almost a little boring. Blame the terrible SEC, which is yet again the usual two-horse race between the Gators and Kentucky.
8. SAN DIEGO STATE (17-1): On November 12th, the second game of the season, San Diego State lost at home to Arizona. They haven't lost since. Over that stretch, the Aztecs have won 16 consecutive games, including a victory at Kansas. They've become what Ohio State wanted to be: an elite defensive and rebounding team that scrapes together enough offense to beat everyone they play.
9. KENTUCKY (14-4): The fatal flaw has become obvious. Andrew Harrison is only shooting 38% from the floor. Aaron Harrison -- the "shooting" guard -- is making 30% of his three-pointers. James Young has taken 120 threes this season but makes just a third of them. Kentucky has more than enough talent to win a championship. They just can't shoot.
10. CREIGHTON (16-3): The exact opposite of Kentucky. All Creighton can do is shoot, and they do it better than anybody. Four players in their starting lineup shoot 44% or better from three-point range, led by 6-foot-7 "center" Ethan Wragge at 50%. That percentage is no small-sample-size fluke: of Wragge's 154 shot attempts this season, 148 have come from three-point range. But the best offense in the country owes most of its success to National Player of the Year favorite Doug McDermott, who's going to be the first three-time First-Team All-American since Patrick Ewing. He's averaging almost 25 points per game and shooting 50% from the field, 44% from beyond the arc, and 90% from the line. Yet despite all this, Creighton wasn't even ranked last week in either of the major top-25 polls. That ought to be addressed.
Key Game to Watch this Weekend:
#21 Michigan at #3 Michigan State, 7:00 PM Saturday
A month ago, Michigan looked dead in the water. The Wolverines started the season with four losses in their first 10 games and Mitch McGary was forced to undergo season-ending back surgery. But since a home loss to Arizona on December 14th, Michigan has won eight in a row, including victories over Wisconsin (#3 in the country at the time) and Iowa (#10) to preserve a perfect 6-0 record in the Big 10. Nik Stauskas is doing a pretty good McDermott impression, scoring 18.5 points per game and shooting 49% from the field, including 44% from three-point range. Michigan State will be vulnerable on Saturday with Branden Dawson and potentially Adreian Payne unable to play. Michigan will have a perfect opportunity to steal a road game against a top-three team and claim sole possession of first place in the Big 10.
2. KANSAS (14-4): Ranking a four-loss Kansas team ahead of undefeated Syracuse has more to do with the bigger picture than just win-loss records. Kansas is simply the most talented team in the country. There's even a chance that this team will produce the top two picks in the NBA draft, much like Kentucky did in their national championship season with Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. After playing the most grueling nonconference schedule in the country, Kansas has now won five consecutive Big 12 games against teams that are all projected to make the NCAA Tournament: Oklahoma, Kansas State, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, and Baylor. And Sportsbook already lists Kansas as the favorite to win the championship, even ahead of Arizona.
3. SYRACUSE (18-0): Their only blemish is the fact that they've played just three true road games: against St. John's, Virginia Tech, and Boston College. The real tests will come during the final month of the season, when the Orange will travel to Pittsburgh, Duke, Virginia, and Florida State.
4. LOUISVILLE (17-3): Like Kansas, this aggressive Louisville ranking requires a little faith. The Cardinals have played a surprisingly weak schedule thanks to the end of the Big East; the new American Athletic Conference offers far fewer opportunities for signature victories. In fact, their win over Connecticut this week was perhaps their first victory against a team with a good chance to be in the NCAA Tournament. But at the same time, several significant pieces from last year's championship team are still around: Russ Smith, Luke Hancock, Montrezl Harrell, Wayne Blackshear, and of course, Rick Pitino. The defense is still elite. On Wednesday, Louisville was without its point guard for a road game at South Florida, and still won by the lopsided score of 86-47. How many teams could pull that off?
5. MICHIGAN STATE (18-1): Maybe the biggest wildcard in the top ten. When healthy, the Spartans could be the best team in the country. But they're never healthy. Adreian Payne and Gary Harris have missed games at different points this season, and now Branden Dawson will be out for a month after channeling the spirit of Kevin Brown and breaking a bone in his hand by slamming it on a table. It could be a while before Michigan State is back to full strength, and the Big 10 schedule is about to get rough, starting with a home game against streaking Michigan this weekend.
6. WICHITA STATE (20-0): On Wednesday, they were trailing by three at halftime at Illinois State. Then the Shockers won the second half by a 45-27 margin. Not much else to say at this point -- Wichita State will probably lose a game somewhere along the line, but you'll lose money by betting against them.
7. FLORIDA (16-2): One of Florida's two losses was at Wisconsin back on November 12th; the other came at the hands of a fluky buzzer-beater at Connecticut. Since that second defeat, they've beaten Kansas and won ten games in a row. Florida is so consistently good every year that it's almost a little boring. Blame the terrible SEC, which is yet again the usual two-horse race between the Gators and Kentucky.
8. SAN DIEGO STATE (17-1): On November 12th, the second game of the season, San Diego State lost at home to Arizona. They haven't lost since. Over that stretch, the Aztecs have won 16 consecutive games, including a victory at Kansas. They've become what Ohio State wanted to be: an elite defensive and rebounding team that scrapes together enough offense to beat everyone they play.
9. KENTUCKY (14-4): The fatal flaw has become obvious. Andrew Harrison is only shooting 38% from the floor. Aaron Harrison -- the "shooting" guard -- is making 30% of his three-pointers. James Young has taken 120 threes this season but makes just a third of them. Kentucky has more than enough talent to win a championship. They just can't shoot.
10. CREIGHTON (16-3): The exact opposite of Kentucky. All Creighton can do is shoot, and they do it better than anybody. Four players in their starting lineup shoot 44% or better from three-point range, led by 6-foot-7 "center" Ethan Wragge at 50%. That percentage is no small-sample-size fluke: of Wragge's 154 shot attempts this season, 148 have come from three-point range. But the best offense in the country owes most of its success to National Player of the Year favorite Doug McDermott, who's going to be the first three-time First-Team All-American since Patrick Ewing. He's averaging almost 25 points per game and shooting 50% from the field, 44% from beyond the arc, and 90% from the line. Yet despite all this, Creighton wasn't even ranked last week in either of the major top-25 polls. That ought to be addressed.
Key Game to Watch this Weekend:
#21 Michigan at #3 Michigan State, 7:00 PM Saturday
A month ago, Michigan looked dead in the water. The Wolverines started the season with four losses in their first 10 games and Mitch McGary was forced to undergo season-ending back surgery. But since a home loss to Arizona on December 14th, Michigan has won eight in a row, including victories over Wisconsin (#3 in the country at the time) and Iowa (#10) to preserve a perfect 6-0 record in the Big 10. Nik Stauskas is doing a pretty good McDermott impression, scoring 18.5 points per game and shooting 49% from the field, including 44% from three-point range. Michigan State will be vulnerable on Saturday with Branden Dawson and potentially Adreian Payne unable to play. Michigan will have a perfect opportunity to steal a road game against a top-three team and claim sole possession of first place in the Big 10.
Tuesday, January 21, 2014
Can Wichita State Run The Table?
With more than half of the college basketball season in the books, only three teams have managed to navigate their schedules without suffering a loss thus far. The first two are Arizona and Syracuse, national title contenders from major conferences with future NBA players on their rosters. But neither of those blue-chip programs has nearly as good a chance of completing an undefeated season as the third school in this group: the 19-0 Wichita State Shockers.
The undefeated regular season hasn't been achieved since Saint Joseph's did it in 2004; if your definition of 'regular season' also includes conference tournaments, then UNLV was the last to pull it off in 1991. Those are the only two instances of undefeated seasons in the last 35 years, which speaks to the difficulty of winning 30-odd college basketball games in a row. But the two teams that did accomplish that feat both did it within minor conferences (Saint Joseph's from the Atlantic 10 and UNLV from the Big West), which is no coincidence given the relatively weaker quality of competition. Wichita State, of the Missouri Valley Conference, shares that inherent advantage.
For that reason, it's relatively safe to assume that Arizona and Syracuse are out of the running for a perfect season. Going undefeated on the road in major conferences like the Pac-12 and the ACC is a virtually impossible task nowadays. Syracuse still has to face away games at Pittsburgh, Virginia, and Florida State, along with two matchups against Duke. Arizona has a slightly easier path, but still faces four games against the league's second- and third- best teams (Cal and Oregon) as well as a tricky road trip to the Rocky Mountains (for Colorado and Utah). The odds of either team escaping league play without a loss are extremely slim, and that's not even taking conference tournaments into account.
Wichita State, on the other hand, has the benefit of the following schedule:
at Illinois State
at Drake
Loyola
Evansville
at Indiana State
at Northern Iowa
Southern Illinois
at Evansville
at Loyola
Drake
at Bradley
Missouri State
Those twelve games will be followed by three more in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. Odds are Wichita State won't beat all 15 of those opponents. But at the same time, the Shockers will be heavily favored against every single one of them. They've already played six league games and won five of them by 14 points or more. Their toughest remaining opponent is Indiana State, a team they pounded by 20 points just a few days ago. The chances of a perfect season are better than you think.
Yet maybe the most interesting question here isn't whether or not Wichita State can pull this off. Instead, it's "what happens if they do?" If their record is 34-0 when Selection Sunday rolls around, are they a legitimate candidate to receive a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament? On one hand, Wichita State's body of work isn't strong enough to deserve a top seed. The usually-solid teams they beat during the nonconference portion of the schedule have underperformed this season (like BYU and Davidson), deflating the value of those victories. And the quality of competition within the Missouri Valley is weak (it ranks as just the 11th-best conference according to RPI). Based strictly on résumé, it's hard to come up with an argument that justifies putting Wichita State on the top line even if the Shockers go undefeated. A decent comparison is the Murray State team from two years ago, which went into February undefeated and only lost one game during the regular season yet still ended up with a #6 seed thanks to a dearth of quality wins.
But even if Wichita State isn't technically deserving of a top seed, we still can't deny what we already know about this team. Regardless of what schools it has or hasn't beaten, it isn't an unknown quantity. Four of the team's five starters played at least 20 minutes in a tightly-contested Final Four game against eventual national champion Louisville less than a year ago. This season, the Shockers have defeated two SEC teams (Alabama on the road and Tennessee at home), as well as a nationally-ranked frontrunner in the Atlantic 10 (Saint Louis, on the road). Nine players on the roster are averaging double-digit minutes per game. Their three leading scorers are all averaging at least 13 points per game with efficient shooting numbers. Point guard Fred VanVleet is shooting 45% from three-point range and owns one of the best assist-to-turnover rates in the country. All told, the Shockers are a top-25 team nationally in terms of both offensive and defensive efficiency, and only five other teams can make that same claim: Arizona, Syracuse, Michigan State, Pittsburgh, and Villanova. Regardless of whether or not they complete the rare undefeated season or earn a #1 seed, come March, Wichita State will be a serious contender to reach a second consecutive Final Four.
But even if Wichita State isn't technically deserving of a top seed, we still can't deny what we already know about this team. Regardless of what schools it has or hasn't beaten, it isn't an unknown quantity. Four of the team's five starters played at least 20 minutes in a tightly-contested Final Four game against eventual national champion Louisville less than a year ago. This season, the Shockers have defeated two SEC teams (Alabama on the road and Tennessee at home), as well as a nationally-ranked frontrunner in the Atlantic 10 (Saint Louis, on the road). Nine players on the roster are averaging double-digit minutes per game. Their three leading scorers are all averaging at least 13 points per game with efficient shooting numbers. Point guard Fred VanVleet is shooting 45% from three-point range and owns one of the best assist-to-turnover rates in the country. All told, the Shockers are a top-25 team nationally in terms of both offensive and defensive efficiency, and only five other teams can make that same claim: Arizona, Syracuse, Michigan State, Pittsburgh, and Villanova. Regardless of whether or not they complete the rare undefeated season or earn a #1 seed, come March, Wichita State will be a serious contender to reach a second consecutive Final Four.
Sunday, November 10, 2013
Five Players to Watch at the Champions Classic
Tuesday, November 12th could be the best night of college hoops until the first day of March Madness.
The relatively new Champions Classic event, featuring four of the top programs in the country, is quickly becoming an ideal way to announce the official beginning of the college basketball season. In 2013, the circumstances couldn't be more perfect. The four teams involved might be the four best teams in the country. One of the games -- Kentucky vs. Michigan State -- will feature the earliest-ever matchup between the #1 and #2 teams in the country, as well as an opportunity to scout Kentucky's newest collection of future first-round picks. The other game will pit perhaps the two best freshmen in the country, Andrew Wiggins of Kansas and Jabari Parker of Duke, against each other in an early battle for pole position in the 2014 NBA Draft. It's a near-perfect setup.
But as fun as it will be to see Wiggins and Parker in action, we won't actually learn much by their play. They're really good; we already know that. What the Champions Classic will tell us is which members of the less-heralded supporting casts are invaluable to their teams' success, and which of them are ready to announce their arrival on a national stage. Here are five such candidates to keep an eye on during Tuesday's action.
Naadir Tharpe. Kansas didn't really have a point guard last year and it cost them dearly in March. Back then, Naadir Tharpe was part of the problem, never able to grab the job and run with it. Thanks to a few graduations, Tharpe now has that role permanently. That makes him a crucial wild card on a national championship contender. He was suspended for Kansas' opener, so there's literally no indication of how he'll perform in his season debut on a national stage against Duke. He doesn't have to score, not with stud freshmen Andrew Wiggins and Wayne Selden playing off the ball. Just avoiding turnovers and running the fast break effectively would be great signs. If he doesn't step up, with only two unproven freshmen backing him up at the position, then a loss to Duke wouldn't be the worst of Kansas' long-term problems.
Rodney Hood. With so much attention focused upon Jabari Parker, it's easy to forget his partner in Duke's frontcourt. Rodney Hood did some nice things for a dysfunctional Mississippi State team his freshman year and judging from his Duke debut against Davidson, it's clear that the transfer had added to his skills. A six-foot-eight forward who can score from pretty much anywhere on the court, Hood will be a nightmare for opposing teams that also have to worry about Parker. It's his versatility that will turn the Blue Devils into one of the most devastating offensive teams in the country this season.
Joel Embiid. Another of Kansas' wild cards. It's not hard to imagine the Jayhawks making a Final Four run without Embiid playing a major role, since he's apparently very raw and they've got a number of other effective options in their frontcourt anyway. But if the seven-foot center from Cameroon plays up to his potential, then Kansas could be downright dominant. Embiid only played 11 minutes in Kansas' season opener and looked way too comfortable and smooth for a player who supposedly picked up basketball just a few years ago. In those 11 minutes, he showed off a couple of sweet offensive moves and took ten free throws (making seven of them!). He's a must-watch player whenever he's on the court.
Willie Cauley-Stein. The seven-foot center is something of a forgotten man in Kentucky's rotation, thanks to an uninspiring freshman season and a crowded frontcourt. And it's easy to overlook his contributions through two games because he's only scored 10 total points in 38 combined minutes. But his true impact has been eye-opening. In his first game, he was hyperactive -- blocking four shots, grabbing three steals, dishing out four assists, and running the floor so well that he elicited a few misplaced lob throws from his guards in transition. In his second game, he attacked the glass, pulling in eleven rebounds, five of them on the offensive end. It appears as though Cauley-Stein understands the role Kentucky needs him to play -- not scoring, but playing disruptive defense, rebounding, and throwing down dunks in transition.
Keith Appling. Maybe the most important player in the country. As the only team in the Champions Classic that's not adding a star freshman to its lineup, much of Michigan State's improvement must come from its returning players. That puts the onus on Appling. He's an excellent player but has struggled at times in the point guard role, contributing to some of the Spartans' ugly late possessions in close games last year. The good news: he's a senior now, surrounded by mostly the same supporting cast as last season, when the Spartans advanced to the Sweet Sixteen. We're told that continuity and big-game experience are invaluable assets in college basketball; Appling's performance against Kentucky's all-freshman backcourt should provide a good test for that theory.
The relatively new Champions Classic event, featuring four of the top programs in the country, is quickly becoming an ideal way to announce the official beginning of the college basketball season. In 2013, the circumstances couldn't be more perfect. The four teams involved might be the four best teams in the country. One of the games -- Kentucky vs. Michigan State -- will feature the earliest-ever matchup between the #1 and #2 teams in the country, as well as an opportunity to scout Kentucky's newest collection of future first-round picks. The other game will pit perhaps the two best freshmen in the country, Andrew Wiggins of Kansas and Jabari Parker of Duke, against each other in an early battle for pole position in the 2014 NBA Draft. It's a near-perfect setup.
But as fun as it will be to see Wiggins and Parker in action, we won't actually learn much by their play. They're really good; we already know that. What the Champions Classic will tell us is which members of the less-heralded supporting casts are invaluable to their teams' success, and which of them are ready to announce their arrival on a national stage. Here are five such candidates to keep an eye on during Tuesday's action.
Naadir Tharpe. Kansas didn't really have a point guard last year and it cost them dearly in March. Back then, Naadir Tharpe was part of the problem, never able to grab the job and run with it. Thanks to a few graduations, Tharpe now has that role permanently. That makes him a crucial wild card on a national championship contender. He was suspended for Kansas' opener, so there's literally no indication of how he'll perform in his season debut on a national stage against Duke. He doesn't have to score, not with stud freshmen Andrew Wiggins and Wayne Selden playing off the ball. Just avoiding turnovers and running the fast break effectively would be great signs. If he doesn't step up, with only two unproven freshmen backing him up at the position, then a loss to Duke wouldn't be the worst of Kansas' long-term problems.
Rodney Hood. With so much attention focused upon Jabari Parker, it's easy to forget his partner in Duke's frontcourt. Rodney Hood did some nice things for a dysfunctional Mississippi State team his freshman year and judging from his Duke debut against Davidson, it's clear that the transfer had added to his skills. A six-foot-eight forward who can score from pretty much anywhere on the court, Hood will be a nightmare for opposing teams that also have to worry about Parker. It's his versatility that will turn the Blue Devils into one of the most devastating offensive teams in the country this season.
Joel Embiid. Another of Kansas' wild cards. It's not hard to imagine the Jayhawks making a Final Four run without Embiid playing a major role, since he's apparently very raw and they've got a number of other effective options in their frontcourt anyway. But if the seven-foot center from Cameroon plays up to his potential, then Kansas could be downright dominant. Embiid only played 11 minutes in Kansas' season opener and looked way too comfortable and smooth for a player who supposedly picked up basketball just a few years ago. In those 11 minutes, he showed off a couple of sweet offensive moves and took ten free throws (making seven of them!). He's a must-watch player whenever he's on the court.
Willie Cauley-Stein. The seven-foot center is something of a forgotten man in Kentucky's rotation, thanks to an uninspiring freshman season and a crowded frontcourt. And it's easy to overlook his contributions through two games because he's only scored 10 total points in 38 combined minutes. But his true impact has been eye-opening. In his first game, he was hyperactive -- blocking four shots, grabbing three steals, dishing out four assists, and running the floor so well that he elicited a few misplaced lob throws from his guards in transition. In his second game, he attacked the glass, pulling in eleven rebounds, five of them on the offensive end. It appears as though Cauley-Stein understands the role Kentucky needs him to play -- not scoring, but playing disruptive defense, rebounding, and throwing down dunks in transition.
Keith Appling. Maybe the most important player in the country. As the only team in the Champions Classic that's not adding a star freshman to its lineup, much of Michigan State's improvement must come from its returning players. That puts the onus on Appling. He's an excellent player but has struggled at times in the point guard role, contributing to some of the Spartans' ugly late possessions in close games last year. The good news: he's a senior now, surrounded by mostly the same supporting cast as last season, when the Spartans advanced to the Sweet Sixteen. We're told that continuity and big-game experience are invaluable assets in college basketball; Appling's performance against Kentucky's all-freshman backcourt should provide a good test for that theory.
Sunday, March 24, 2013
Winners and Losers After One Week of Madness
Winner: Florida Gulf Coast. It's not just about the school's two comfortable wins over two elite defensive teams. It's not just about being the first 15-seed to reach the Sweet Sixteen. What's truly shocking about the Florida Gulf Coast Eagles is the way they've won -- with brazen swagger, high-flying dunks, excessive sideline celebrations, and jaw-dropping alley-oops. They're like a carnival version of the 2011 VCU Rams. They're fun as heck. Best of all, Florida Gulf Coast University now owns the best winning percentage (2-0!) in NCAA tournament history, at least for a few more days. This is what March is about -- desperately rooting for a school that, just last week, no one even knew existed.
Loser: The Mountain West Conference. This was supposed to be the year that the MWC (ranked as the nation's best conference according to the RPI) finally broke out in the tournament. Instead, the league flopped big-time. New Mexico was the main culprit thanks to a mind-numbing loss to a Harvard team that had literally never won a tournament game before. Fifth-seeded UNLV, easily one of the ten most talented squads in the country, laid an egg against Cal in the first round. Boise State looked mostly helpless in a play-in game loss to La Salle. San Diego State could've reached the Sweet Sixteen on Sunday just by beating a 15-seed, but fell prey to the Florida Gulf Coast Dunk Factory. Colorado State at least won a game before being served to the Louisville Cardinals like a sacrificial lamb. It's not fair to make broad statements about an entire conference based on one year, but this has been going on for a while. In its entire history, the Mountain West is now something like 6-30 against teams from Power Six conferences in the NCAA tournament. That's ... not so good.
Winner: The Atlantic 10 Conference. Like the MWC, the Atlantic 10 got five teams into the tournament, prompting high expectations. And for the most part, the league has had an impressive showing. Saint Louis, VCU, and Butler all cruised in their opening-round games against double-digit seeds (a stark contrast to what New Mexico and UNLV did) before losing to tough opponents in the next round. Temple "upset" a more talented N.C. State team before giving Indiana a serious scare. And out of all of them, La Salle advanced to the Sweet Sixteen by winning a play-in game (against, fittingly, Boise State of the underachieving MWC) before beating Kansas State and Ole Miss. Unfortunately the conference is losing most of its best teams to realignment next year. But kudos for an excellent swan song.
Loser: Gonzaga. The Zags haven't advanced past the Sweet Sixteen since their first magical run in 1999. This was going to be the year they finally performed up to the high standard they've set for themselves. The road was wide-open thanks to the early eliminations of New Mexico, Kansas State, and Wisconsin in the West Region. But instead they couldn't advance past Wichita State in the Round of 32. And it's not like they played poorly. Here are the results of Wichita State's final handful of possessions, based on ESPN's play-by-play record, starting at about the six-minute mark in the second half when Gonzaga was up by seven:
6:05 Tekele Cotton made Three Point Jumper.
5:10 Cleanthony Early made Three Point Jumper.
4:23 Ron Baker made Three Point Jumper.
3:30 Carl Hall made Jumper.
3:10 Ron Baker made 2 Free Throws.
2:55 Ron Baker made Three Point Jumper.
1:32 Fred VanVleet made Three Point Jumper.
That comes out to 19 points on seven possessions. The Shockers turned a seven-point deficit into a five-point lead thank to some ridiculously-hot shooting (14-of-28 from long range in the whole game) by a team that doesn't even shoot three-pointers well. The Zags didn't lose this game. Wichita State grabbed it and refused to let go. Despite this disappointing finish, Gonzaga's accomplishments this year hopefully won't be forgotten.
Winner: Clutch guard play. The first week of the tournament went by without any real buzzer-beaters. There were still some big-time shots made on last-minute possessions, most notably Aaron Craft's three-pointer that rescued Ohio State against Iowa State. Honorable mentions awarded to Vander Blue's final-second go-ahead layup for Marquette against Davidson, Victor Oladipo's top-of-the-key jumper to clinch Indiana's win over Temple, Shane Larkin's three-point dagger for Miami against Illinois, and Tyrone Garland's layup against Ole Miss to improbably send La Salle to the Sweet Sixteen.
Winner: Clutch guard play. The first week of the tournament went by without any real buzzer-beaters. There were still some big-time shots made on last-minute possessions, most notably Aaron Craft's three-pointer that rescued Ohio State against Iowa State. Honorable mentions awarded to Vander Blue's final-second go-ahead layup for Marquette against Davidson, Victor Oladipo's top-of-the-key jumper to clinch Indiana's win over Temple, Shane Larkin's three-point dagger for Miami against Illinois, and Tyrone Garland's layup against Ole Miss to improbably send La Salle to the Sweet Sixteen.
Loser: Any program with a poor tournament reputation. Once you get branded as a March underachiever, it becomes almost impossible to change that perception. Those snake-bitten schools did nothing to help themselves in 2013. Pittsburgh, for instance, still can't seem to shake its bad first-round mojo after a loss to Wichita State. Same goes for Notre Dame. Belmont always gets hyped as a sleeper Cinderella but never comes through. UNLV has lost in the Round of 64 in four consecutive years. Georgetown might be the worst culprit: after their loss to Florida Gulf Coast, the Hoyas have now lost five straight tournament games to double-digit seeds. These guys have got some work to do.
Winner: The road ahead for Florida and Ohio State. Of the top eight seeds in the Midwest and East Regions, seven survived to the Sweet Sixteen. Those two brackets are still loaded with landmines. But upsets in the West and South have given two programs an excellent chance of reaching the Final Four. One is Florida; thanks to other circumstances, the Gators can reach the Elite Eight just by beating a 14-seed, an 11-seed, and a 15-seed. That would be one of the easiest routes to a regional final ever -- assuming they get past the Florida Gulf Coast juggernaut, that is. Ohio State might be in an even better position. If the Buckeyes beat Arizona next week, their Elite Eight matchup would be against either Wichita State or La Salle. Pretty sweet deal.
Winner: The road ahead for Florida and Ohio State. Of the top eight seeds in the Midwest and East Regions, seven survived to the Sweet Sixteen. Those two brackets are still loaded with landmines. But upsets in the West and South have given two programs an excellent chance of reaching the Final Four. One is Florida; thanks to other circumstances, the Gators can reach the Elite Eight just by beating a 14-seed, an 11-seed, and a 15-seed. That would be one of the easiest routes to a regional final ever -- assuming they get past the Florida Gulf Coast juggernaut, that is. Ohio State might be in an even better position. If the Buckeyes beat Arizona next week, their Elite Eight matchup would be against either Wichita State or La Salle. Pretty sweet deal.
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Wednesday, March 20, 2013
Bracketeering, Part Four: The East Region
The East is basically divided into two stratospheres. The first contains Indiana and Miami, the two best teams in the region. The second is made up of everybody else, and they're all basically on the same plane. The "gap" between, say, #5 UNLV and #12 California is minuscule despite the seeding difference. So an Indiana-Miami regional final seems inevitable -- but the rest of the bracket? Wide open and totally unpredictable. Some scattered thoughts on picking this region:
1. The most over-seeded team in the tournament this year, by far, is Marquette. The Golden Eagles did win a share of the Big East title, which is probably why the Selection Committee saw fit to award them a #3 seed. Still, their only significant win away from home all year was an overtime victory at Pitt two months ago. They don't have a dominant player and can't shoot three-pointers. Plus, they're matched up against a red-hot, well-coached Davidson team that's a lot better than the average 14-seed. 3-seeds don't lose in the first round very often, but Marquette is closer to a 5-seed. And even if the Golden Eagles win, they draw either Butler or Bucknell in the Round of 32. Marquette isn't doing much damage this year.
2. A 12-seed has beaten a 5-seed in virtually every tournament for the last quarter-century. Those are the most popular upset picks and usually they jump right off the page. This year, they're actually tough to find. Most of the 5-seeds are excellent teams (Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, VCU). The one exception is UNLV in this region. The Rebels look vulnerable against #12 California, for more reasons than anyone should need. First of all, there's no way the Rebels deserved a 5-seed. Like Marquette, they hardly did anything away from home. That's a particular problem in this first-round game, which is taking place in San Jose, a virtual home game for Cal. Then, consider that 5-seeds from non-Power-Six conferences are particularly vulnerable to early upsets (like last year, when Temple and Wichita State were felled in the first round), especially when they face 12-seeds that are from a Power Six conference, like Cal. And the Mountain West Conference's historical record in the NCAA tournament is quite poor. If a 12-over-5 upset is going to happen, all signs point to Cal-over-UNLV as the likeliest possibility.
3. Of all the double-digit seeds in the tournament, #11 Bucknell has one of the best shots at reaching the Sweet Sixteen despite drawing Butler in the first round. The Bison have already played tough competition this season, almost winning at Missouri, and they have a dominant frontcourt presence in Mike Muscala. If they advance, their next opponent could be the overrated Marquette -- or maybe we get a Bucknell-vs-Davidson showdown with the Sweet Sixteen on the line?
4. There's no other way to say this: N.C. State vs. Temple is going to be awesome. There will be many shots. There will be no defense. There will be many points. Yes please.
5. At the end of the day, this region still has to come down to Indiana and Miami, right? Sure, there's a chance Syracuse's zone stops Indiana cold, and there's a chance Illinois shoots Miami right out of the gym. But the Hoosiers and Hurricanes are head-and-shoulders above everybody else in this bracket. Both have some truly breathtaking basketball talents. If they do meet in the regional final, chances are that game would be a memorable classic.
So, What Happens? Utter chaos, that's what happens. Marquette doesn't get to the Sweet Sixteen, but a double-digit seed does. UNLV goes down to Cal. Even Montana puts a scare into Syracuse (though the Orange do survive until the second weekend). Once the dust settles, Indiana and Miami are the last ones standing, and Victor Oladipo shuts down Shane Larkin as the Hoosiers advance to the Final Four.
1. The most over-seeded team in the tournament this year, by far, is Marquette. The Golden Eagles did win a share of the Big East title, which is probably why the Selection Committee saw fit to award them a #3 seed. Still, their only significant win away from home all year was an overtime victory at Pitt two months ago. They don't have a dominant player and can't shoot three-pointers. Plus, they're matched up against a red-hot, well-coached Davidson team that's a lot better than the average 14-seed. 3-seeds don't lose in the first round very often, but Marquette is closer to a 5-seed. And even if the Golden Eagles win, they draw either Butler or Bucknell in the Round of 32. Marquette isn't doing much damage this year.
2. A 12-seed has beaten a 5-seed in virtually every tournament for the last quarter-century. Those are the most popular upset picks and usually they jump right off the page. This year, they're actually tough to find. Most of the 5-seeds are excellent teams (Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, VCU). The one exception is UNLV in this region. The Rebels look vulnerable against #12 California, for more reasons than anyone should need. First of all, there's no way the Rebels deserved a 5-seed. Like Marquette, they hardly did anything away from home. That's a particular problem in this first-round game, which is taking place in San Jose, a virtual home game for Cal. Then, consider that 5-seeds from non-Power-Six conferences are particularly vulnerable to early upsets (like last year, when Temple and Wichita State were felled in the first round), especially when they face 12-seeds that are from a Power Six conference, like Cal. And the Mountain West Conference's historical record in the NCAA tournament is quite poor. If a 12-over-5 upset is going to happen, all signs point to Cal-over-UNLV as the likeliest possibility.
3. Of all the double-digit seeds in the tournament, #11 Bucknell has one of the best shots at reaching the Sweet Sixteen despite drawing Butler in the first round. The Bison have already played tough competition this season, almost winning at Missouri, and they have a dominant frontcourt presence in Mike Muscala. If they advance, their next opponent could be the overrated Marquette -- or maybe we get a Bucknell-vs-Davidson showdown with the Sweet Sixteen on the line?
4. There's no other way to say this: N.C. State vs. Temple is going to be awesome. There will be many shots. There will be no defense. There will be many points. Yes please.
5. At the end of the day, this region still has to come down to Indiana and Miami, right? Sure, there's a chance Syracuse's zone stops Indiana cold, and there's a chance Illinois shoots Miami right out of the gym. But the Hoosiers and Hurricanes are head-and-shoulders above everybody else in this bracket. Both have some truly breathtaking basketball talents. If they do meet in the regional final, chances are that game would be a memorable classic.
So, What Happens? Utter chaos, that's what happens. Marquette doesn't get to the Sweet Sixteen, but a double-digit seed does. UNLV goes down to Cal. Even Montana puts a scare into Syracuse (though the Orange do survive until the second weekend). Once the dust settles, Indiana and Miami are the last ones standing, and Victor Oladipo shuts down Shane Larkin as the Hoosiers advance to the Final Four.
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Tuesday, March 19, 2013
Bracketeering, Part Three: The South Region
Thirteen expert analysts have revealed their Final Four picks on ESPN.com, from Jay Bilas to Jay Williams. They overwhelmingly prefer Louisville coming out of the Midwest, either Gonzaga or Ohio State from the West, and either Indiana or Miami from the East. As for the South? That's where the consensus breaks down. Each of the region's top five seeds were picked at least once; the #1 seed, Kansas, got as much support as the #5 seed, VCU. With the teams at the top bunched so closely together in quality, the South really is nothing more than a toss-up. Some scattered thoughts on picking this region:
1. The excellence at the top of the bracket really distracts from how unappealing the lower seeds are. #6 UCLA is playing without Jordan Adams; even with him, the Bruins were an up-and-down team at best. The four participants in the 8/9 and 7/10 games (Villanova, North Carolina, San Diego State, and Oklahoma) are all deeply flawed, and (with the exception of North Carolina) fairly bland. #11 Minnesota is the most ice-cold team in the entire tournament. And #12 Akron would have had excellent Cinderella potential ... before losing their point guard for the season. For the most part, the lower seeds in the South have little to offer.
2. The one exception, however, is thirteen-seed South Dakota State. Their star guard Nate Wolters (averaging 22.7 points per game) is a borderline NBA prospect who leads a high-scoring offense. If the Jackrabbits were going up against a legitimate defense in the first round, there'd be little to no chance of an upset. But they're facing Michigan. Not only do the Wolverines care a lot more about scoring than defending; they also lost to a #13 seed just last year (Ohio). Anything could happen if the game descends into a jump-shooting contest. While this potential upset isn't one of the more likely ones, the mere possibility of it happening should strike fear into the hearts of those picking Michigan to make a deep run.
3. One of the teams rooting hard for South Dakota State to pull off the shocker is VCU. If the fifth-seeded Rams advance against Akron, they'd hypothetically match up against Michigan, a team that rarely commits turnovers thanks to the hyper-efficient Trey Burke. VCU needs to force turnovers to win and might not be able to squeeze them out of Michigan. But if the Rams do somehow sneak their way into the Sweet Sixteen, their pressure defense would match up perfectly against Kansas. The Jayhawks don't have a reliable ballhandler. It's easy to picture Elijah Johnson and Naadir Tharpe getting burned repeatedly by VCU's press. Ironically, Kansas would probably rather take its chances against Trey Burke and Michigan's offense. That says a lot about the importance of matchups in this tournament.
4. There is no more frustrating game to pick in the first round than UCLA versus Minnesota. Despite being the 11-seed, Minnesota is actually favored to win. The Bruins will be at a massive disadvantage on the boards and freshman Jordan Adams is out for the tournament thanks to an injury sustained last week. Minnesota isn't exactly a lock though -- the Golden Gophers have lost eleven of their past sixteen games, including three in a row to Nebraska, Purdue, and Illinois. Thankfully, the winner here is going to get clobbered by Florida so we won't be subject to either one much longer.
5. It would be a huge shock if #2 seed Georgetown and #3 seed Florida don't meet for a chance to go to the Elite Eight. Both are trying to put an end to the negative narratives that have come to define them. Georgetown goes through long stretches of offensive futility and has drastically underperformed in recent tournaments. Florida has been miserable in crucial late-game situations, contributing to their 0-6 record in games decided by six points or less. At some point, Georgetown is going to have to actually score points and Florida is going to have to actually win a close game.
So, What Happens? Minnesota over UCLA is the only significant upset of the first round but the Golden Gophers are still terrible, even in victory. Michigan fails to live up to expectations for the second consecutive year by falling short of the Sweet Sixteen. Instead, it's Shaka Smart who solidifies his reputation as a March wizard by getting his VCU Rams to the second weekend. Georgetown almost goes home early again but survives scares from Florida Gulf Coast and San Diego State. And Florida never has to deal with its shortcomings in the clutch department, choosing instead to simply crush all of its opponents en route to a Final Four appearance.
1. The excellence at the top of the bracket really distracts from how unappealing the lower seeds are. #6 UCLA is playing without Jordan Adams; even with him, the Bruins were an up-and-down team at best. The four participants in the 8/9 and 7/10 games (Villanova, North Carolina, San Diego State, and Oklahoma) are all deeply flawed, and (with the exception of North Carolina) fairly bland. #11 Minnesota is the most ice-cold team in the entire tournament. And #12 Akron would have had excellent Cinderella potential ... before losing their point guard for the season. For the most part, the lower seeds in the South have little to offer.
2. The one exception, however, is thirteen-seed South Dakota State. Their star guard Nate Wolters (averaging 22.7 points per game) is a borderline NBA prospect who leads a high-scoring offense. If the Jackrabbits were going up against a legitimate defense in the first round, there'd be little to no chance of an upset. But they're facing Michigan. Not only do the Wolverines care a lot more about scoring than defending; they also lost to a #13 seed just last year (Ohio). Anything could happen if the game descends into a jump-shooting contest. While this potential upset isn't one of the more likely ones, the mere possibility of it happening should strike fear into the hearts of those picking Michigan to make a deep run.
3. One of the teams rooting hard for South Dakota State to pull off the shocker is VCU. If the fifth-seeded Rams advance against Akron, they'd hypothetically match up against Michigan, a team that rarely commits turnovers thanks to the hyper-efficient Trey Burke. VCU needs to force turnovers to win and might not be able to squeeze them out of Michigan. But if the Rams do somehow sneak their way into the Sweet Sixteen, their pressure defense would match up perfectly against Kansas. The Jayhawks don't have a reliable ballhandler. It's easy to picture Elijah Johnson and Naadir Tharpe getting burned repeatedly by VCU's press. Ironically, Kansas would probably rather take its chances against Trey Burke and Michigan's offense. That says a lot about the importance of matchups in this tournament.
4. There is no more frustrating game to pick in the first round than UCLA versus Minnesota. Despite being the 11-seed, Minnesota is actually favored to win. The Bruins will be at a massive disadvantage on the boards and freshman Jordan Adams is out for the tournament thanks to an injury sustained last week. Minnesota isn't exactly a lock though -- the Golden Gophers have lost eleven of their past sixteen games, including three in a row to Nebraska, Purdue, and Illinois. Thankfully, the winner here is going to get clobbered by Florida so we won't be subject to either one much longer.
5. It would be a huge shock if #2 seed Georgetown and #3 seed Florida don't meet for a chance to go to the Elite Eight. Both are trying to put an end to the negative narratives that have come to define them. Georgetown goes through long stretches of offensive futility and has drastically underperformed in recent tournaments. Florida has been miserable in crucial late-game situations, contributing to their 0-6 record in games decided by six points or less. At some point, Georgetown is going to have to actually score points and Florida is going to have to actually win a close game.
So, What Happens? Minnesota over UCLA is the only significant upset of the first round but the Golden Gophers are still terrible, even in victory. Michigan fails to live up to expectations for the second consecutive year by falling short of the Sweet Sixteen. Instead, it's Shaka Smart who solidifies his reputation as a March wizard by getting his VCU Rams to the second weekend. Georgetown almost goes home early again but survives scares from Florida Gulf Coast and San Diego State. And Florida never has to deal with its shortcomings in the clutch department, choosing instead to simply crush all of its opponents en route to a Final Four appearance.
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Monday, March 18, 2013
Bracketeering, Part Two: The West Region
If a surprise team ends up making the Final Four, chances are it will come from the West Region. At the top you'll find the weakest #1 seed (Gonzaga) and weakest #2 seed (Ohio State) in the field, along with a #3 seed (New Mexico) that few people ever saw play. Throw in some lower-seeded sleepers like Wisconsin, Arizona, and Pittsburgh, plus potential Cinderellas like Belmont and Ole Miss, and the West could be the bracket that collapses in a whirlpool of delicious chaos. Some scattered thoughts on picking this region:
1. The primary concern about Gonzaga is how well their efficient offense will perform against tenacious defenses, the likes of which don't exist in the West Coast Conference. We're definitely going to find out. The Zags' path to the Final Four could potentially go through Pitt in the Round of 32, Wisconsin in the Sweet Sixteen, and Ohio State or New Mexico in the Elite Eight. All four of those teams are among the top 20 defensive units in the country. Good luck, fair sirs.
2. Every bracket has an Enigma Team that could go to the Final Four or lose in the first round. In the West, it's Arizona. The sixth-seeded Wildcats have a ton of talented players and they proved it by beating Florida and Miami earlier in the season. But they also finished poorly down the stretch in the Pac-12 and don't really have a true point guard. Having to face Belmont's excellent guards in the first round won't help, either. A first-round exit seems much more likely than a deep run.
3. In each of the last five NCAA Tournaments, a 4-seed has fallen to a 13-seed in the first round (last year, it was Michigan losing to Ohio). Kansas State looks like the most vulnerable candidate this time around. Whereas the other 4-seeds will be playing 13-seeds from tiny conferences, Kansas State is stuck playing the winner of the play-in game between La Salle and Boise State, both of which played in strong leagues that got five teams into the tournament.
4. One of the classic bracket-picking strategies is finding #12 seeds that have a good chance of beating #5 seeds. Those upsets happen at a surprisingly high frequency. But is anyone actually taking Ole Miss over Wisconsin in this region? Regardless of the Rebels' inspiring run through the SEC tournament, they're still not a particularly good team. Wisconsin will find a way to shut down the outspoken scorer Marshall Henderson. Defense trumps narrative.
5. The double-digit seed with the most long-term potential here? It's easily Iowa State. The Cyclones knock down more three-pointers than basically anyone. Their six core players all average at least nine points a game, giving them a balanced and dangerous offensive attack. Their defense? Mostly nonexistent. Yet given how many teams in this region struggle to score, Iowa State could do some damage if the shots are falling.
So, What Happens? A bunch of upsets early, as K-State, Arizona, and Notre Dame all fall in the first round. Marshall Henderson is never heard from again. New Mexico proves it belongs with the big boys by reaching the Sweet Sixteen. Gonzaga gets there too, but no further, thanks to Wisconsin's frustrating style. And Ohio State emerges from the fray to reach its second consecutive Final Four.
1. The primary concern about Gonzaga is how well their efficient offense will perform against tenacious defenses, the likes of which don't exist in the West Coast Conference. We're definitely going to find out. The Zags' path to the Final Four could potentially go through Pitt in the Round of 32, Wisconsin in the Sweet Sixteen, and Ohio State or New Mexico in the Elite Eight. All four of those teams are among the top 20 defensive units in the country. Good luck, fair sirs.
2. Every bracket has an Enigma Team that could go to the Final Four or lose in the first round. In the West, it's Arizona. The sixth-seeded Wildcats have a ton of talented players and they proved it by beating Florida and Miami earlier in the season. But they also finished poorly down the stretch in the Pac-12 and don't really have a true point guard. Having to face Belmont's excellent guards in the first round won't help, either. A first-round exit seems much more likely than a deep run.
3. In each of the last five NCAA Tournaments, a 4-seed has fallen to a 13-seed in the first round (last year, it was Michigan losing to Ohio). Kansas State looks like the most vulnerable candidate this time around. Whereas the other 4-seeds will be playing 13-seeds from tiny conferences, Kansas State is stuck playing the winner of the play-in game between La Salle and Boise State, both of which played in strong leagues that got five teams into the tournament.
4. One of the classic bracket-picking strategies is finding #12 seeds that have a good chance of beating #5 seeds. Those upsets happen at a surprisingly high frequency. But is anyone actually taking Ole Miss over Wisconsin in this region? Regardless of the Rebels' inspiring run through the SEC tournament, they're still not a particularly good team. Wisconsin will find a way to shut down the outspoken scorer Marshall Henderson. Defense trumps narrative.
5. The double-digit seed with the most long-term potential here? It's easily Iowa State. The Cyclones knock down more three-pointers than basically anyone. Their six core players all average at least nine points a game, giving them a balanced and dangerous offensive attack. Their defense? Mostly nonexistent. Yet given how many teams in this region struggle to score, Iowa State could do some damage if the shots are falling.
So, What Happens? A bunch of upsets early, as K-State, Arizona, and Notre Dame all fall in the first round. Marshall Henderson is never heard from again. New Mexico proves it belongs with the big boys by reaching the Sweet Sixteen. Gonzaga gets there too, but no further, thanks to Wisconsin's frustrating style. And Ohio State emerges from the fray to reach its second consecutive Final Four.
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Sunday, March 17, 2013
Bracketeering, Part One: The Midwest Region
Every year, the NCAA Tournament has a Region of Death. In 2013, it's the Midwest.
Marcus Smart, Peyton Siva, and Keith Appling. Rick Pitino, Mike Krzyzewski, and Tom Izzo. Doug McDermott, Mason Plumlee, Gorgui Dieng. They can all be found in the Midwest. Whoever emerges from this region will have earned it. Some scattered thoughts on picking this region:
1. It would be a huge surprise if the three top seeds -- Louisville, Duke, and Michigan State -- didn't all advance to the Sweet Sixteen with relative ease. Who can stand in their way? That's what makes this region so tough. We're almost guaranteed some epic games between national title contenders on the second weekend.
2. Usually, a #4 seed isn't a sleeper. In this bracket, Saint Louis is. The Billikens are fundamentally sound with a tenacious defense and balanced offense. They aren't going to lose to New Mexico State in the Round of 64 and if they get past the Oklahoma State/Oregon winner, Louisville will have its hands full in that Sweet Sixteen matchup.
3. #5 seed Oklahoma State got a raw deal. Not only did the Cowboys get stuck in the worst region ... and not only are they stuck in the same pod as Saint Louis ... they also got paired up with twelfth-seeded Oregon in the first round. That's hardly fair. Oregon is way better than your typical #12 seed (the other three were Akron, California, and Ole Miss ... yuck). The Ducks just won the Pac-12 tournament and were projected to be a single-digit seed. Apparently they ended up on the 12-line because of other conflicts. That's a tough break for the Cowboys even though I'd still expect them to win this game.
4. Middle Tennessee facing Saint Mary's is the ideal play-in game. Nobody knows how good these teams are because neither one faced very many quality teams. So they can slug it out in Dayton while the rest of us educate ourselves on the Blue Raiders and the Gaels. Perfect.
5. Each region typically has three "toss-ups" that are headaches to try and pick: the 8 vs. 9, 7 vs. 10, and 6 vs. 11 games. But the Midwest's toss-up contests each feature a team I deeply dislike, which makes them easier to pick than usual. One is eighth-seeded Missouri, a team that struggles mightily away from home and whose point guard Phil Pressey is prone to poor decision-making. Their first-round opponent Colorado State is much more reliable. The second is #10 seed Cincinnati, because the Bearcats' halfcourt offense makes eyes bleed. Creighton will be able to actually score the basketball. The third is Memphis, which seems heavily overvalued as a six-seed. The only NCAA Tournament team Memphis has beaten is Harvard. No joke. The Tigers play the winner of the Saint Mary's/Middle Tennessee play-in game; they're a likely upset victim if one of those two underdogs ends up being respectable.
So, What Happens? Chalk to the Sweet Sixteen. Memphis goes down, but not many other upsets -- Oregon, Valparaiso, and New Mexico State are far from impressive. The winner of the Saint Louis/Oklahoma State game becomes the dangerous team to watch. In the second weekend, Michigan State uses its massive size advantage to exploit Duke's rebounding weakness, but the Spartans can't handle Louisville's pressure in the regional final. And the Midwest will make up for its lack of an inspiring Cinderella with basketball of the very highest quality.
Marcus Smart, Peyton Siva, and Keith Appling. Rick Pitino, Mike Krzyzewski, and Tom Izzo. Doug McDermott, Mason Plumlee, Gorgui Dieng. They can all be found in the Midwest. Whoever emerges from this region will have earned it. Some scattered thoughts on picking this region:
1. It would be a huge surprise if the three top seeds -- Louisville, Duke, and Michigan State -- didn't all advance to the Sweet Sixteen with relative ease. Who can stand in their way? That's what makes this region so tough. We're almost guaranteed some epic games between national title contenders on the second weekend.
2. Usually, a #4 seed isn't a sleeper. In this bracket, Saint Louis is. The Billikens are fundamentally sound with a tenacious defense and balanced offense. They aren't going to lose to New Mexico State in the Round of 64 and if they get past the Oklahoma State/Oregon winner, Louisville will have its hands full in that Sweet Sixteen matchup.
3. #5 seed Oklahoma State got a raw deal. Not only did the Cowboys get stuck in the worst region ... and not only are they stuck in the same pod as Saint Louis ... they also got paired up with twelfth-seeded Oregon in the first round. That's hardly fair. Oregon is way better than your typical #12 seed (the other three were Akron, California, and Ole Miss ... yuck). The Ducks just won the Pac-12 tournament and were projected to be a single-digit seed. Apparently they ended up on the 12-line because of other conflicts. That's a tough break for the Cowboys even though I'd still expect them to win this game.
4. Middle Tennessee facing Saint Mary's is the ideal play-in game. Nobody knows how good these teams are because neither one faced very many quality teams. So they can slug it out in Dayton while the rest of us educate ourselves on the Blue Raiders and the Gaels. Perfect.
5. Each region typically has three "toss-ups" that are headaches to try and pick: the 8 vs. 9, 7 vs. 10, and 6 vs. 11 games. But the Midwest's toss-up contests each feature a team I deeply dislike, which makes them easier to pick than usual. One is eighth-seeded Missouri, a team that struggles mightily away from home and whose point guard Phil Pressey is prone to poor decision-making. Their first-round opponent Colorado State is much more reliable. The second is #10 seed Cincinnati, because the Bearcats' halfcourt offense makes eyes bleed. Creighton will be able to actually score the basketball. The third is Memphis, which seems heavily overvalued as a six-seed. The only NCAA Tournament team Memphis has beaten is Harvard. No joke. The Tigers play the winner of the Saint Mary's/Middle Tennessee play-in game; they're a likely upset victim if one of those two underdogs ends up being respectable.
So, What Happens? Chalk to the Sweet Sixteen. Memphis goes down, but not many other upsets -- Oregon, Valparaiso, and New Mexico State are far from impressive. The winner of the Saint Louis/Oklahoma State game becomes the dangerous team to watch. In the second weekend, Michigan State uses its massive size advantage to exploit Duke's rebounding weakness, but the Spartans can't handle Louisville's pressure in the regional final. And the Midwest will make up for its lack of an inspiring Cinderella with basketball of the very highest quality.
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Friday, March 15, 2013
Last Chance for the Big Dance
Selection Sunday is just a day away. There are still about 11 spots in the NCAA Tournament up for grabs.
Well, that's oversimplifying things. Crazy stuff could still hypothetically happen in a few conference tournaments, like Maryland winning the ACC, which would throw a wrench into everything. But accounting for all the teams that have already locked themselves into the NCAA Tournament field regardless of any other shenanigans, there are still about 11 at-large spots available. Here are the programs in contention for those spots, ordered roughly from safest to most in danger of Sunday disappointment.
The Likelies (teams that are probably in the safe Group of Eleven, but "lock" is too strong a word)
1. Villanova: Did lose to Louisville in the Big East tournament, but took care of business by avoiding a bad loss to St. John's before that. Villanova has too many good wins (Louisville, Georgetown, Syracuse, Marquette) to miss out on March Madness. One would think.
2. Temple: Scored a huge comeback victory against VCU in the regular season finale. That, combined with an 11-5 record in the Atlantic 10 and nonconference wins over Syracuse and Villanova, ought to be enough for the Owls. Still not a lock thanks to some horrifying losses and an early exit from the Atlantic 10 tournament.
3. Iowa State: The Cyclones were down by as many as 14 points in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament against Oklahoma. A loss could have sent them to the NIT. Instead, they rallied to defeat another quality bubble team (on a neutral floor). Should be okay even after falling to Kansas in the semis.
4. Oklahoma: Thanks to the aforementioned comeback, the Sooners probably just got leapfrogged by Iowa State on the Selection Committee's totem pole. They've now lost three out of five, including defeats to Texas and TCU. This might have cost Oklahoma a bid -- in a different year. In 2013, the rest of the bubble is too weak for the Sooners to be relegated to the NIT.
5. Colorado: Actually a very nice resumé here. The 39th-best RPI, a sweep of Oregon, and wins over Colorado State, Arizona, and California. The Buffaloes would've been a lock ... had they not lost their final home game of the year to Oregon State. Thankfully they won the rematch in the opening round of the Pac-12 Tournament, though they were eliminated by Arizona a day later. Looking good.
6. California: In the same boat as Colorado. Cal should've been a lock, then lost the final two games of the season -- to Stanford and Utah. Oof. It would still be a surprise if the second-place team in the Pac-12 didn't make the tournament.
For you math wizards, that leaves only five bids remaining for everybody else. This is where things get sticky.
The True Coin-Flips (teams that legitimately won't have any idea about their fate until Greg Gumbel does/doesn't announce their name on Sunday's national broadcast)
7. Boise State: The Broncos' case rests almost entirely on how strong the Selection Committee thinks the Mountain West Conference really is. They went 9-7 in the MWC with wins over UNLV, Colorado State, and San Diego State, as well as a road nonconference win at Creighton. However, they bowed out in the first round of their conference tournament and can't add to their resumé. So they're stuck in bubble limbo. It may come down to the Committee deciding between a fifth team from the MWC and a third or fourth from the SEC. I'd rather see Boise State.
8. Saint Mary's: A difficult team to judge. The Gaels have a good RPI (33) and a nice 23-6 record (with half of those losses coming to Gonzaga); they went to the WCC title game; and they look pretty good. Yet they also did nothing outside of the West Coast Conference besides beating Creighton at home. Subjectively, Saint Mary's is good enough to make the tournament. It's also really easy to envision a scenario in which the Selection Committee makes an example out of the Gaels by leaving them out of the field as punishment for undertaking a pansy schedule.
9. La Salle: A lot like Boise State, except we're talking about the fifth team out of the Atlantic 10 instead of the MWC. The RPI is good at 38, and they beat Butler, VCU, and Villanova. A solid body of work here. The problem: they're out of the A-10 Tournament and risk being leapfrogged by one of the teams below.
10. Alabama: One of the big bubble winners on a busy Friday. The Crimson Tide won what was basically an elimination game against Tennessee to advance to the SEC semifinals, where they'll face Florida. A win in that game wouldn't just put Alabama in position for an at-large berth -- it would put them a win away from taking the decision out of the Committee's hands by simply stealing the SEC's automatic bid.
11. Middle Tennessee State: If an off-the-map school is going to get a surprise bid, this is the one. The Blue Raiders went 19-1 in the Sun Belt but were upset in the quarterfinals of their conference tournament, creating an interesting predicament. Their RPI ranks 31st in the country -- historically, an RPI that high is almost always good enough to make the tournament. Unfortunately, their only good win came against Ole Miss. That's all they've got. There's no way to know how the Committee is going to handle this wild card.
12. Ole Miss: It's bizarre that Ole Miss and Middle Tennessee State happened to play each other months ago. The latter's victory in that game could end up being hugely significant. However, Ole Miss does have an edge: they're still playing. They pulled off a must-have comeback victory against Missouri on Friday to advance to the semifinals of the SEC tournament, where they'll face Vanderbilt. A win in that game, and thus an appearance in the finals, could easily secure this team a bid.
The Faces Pressed Up Against the Window (teams that need either an obscenely generous decision from the Selection Committee or a deep conference tournament run to reach the field of 68)
13. Tennessee: Just came up short in the SEC quarterfinals against Alabama. That didn't help the key flaw on their resumé, a lack of a quality win away from home. How much respect will the Selection Committee have for the SEC? We'll find out soon enough.
14. Virginia: The Cavs have more than enough good wins. It's the bad losses that cripple their resumé and push their RPI into the 60s. The consensus was that they'd have to do damage in the ACC Tournament to stay alive; then they were blown out by N.C. State. Oh well. You should've beaten Old Dominion, Virginia. This will be an interesting litmus test with regard to what the Committee values more -- the ability to beat elite teams or the ability to avoid bad losses.
15. Maryland: If only the Terrapins played every opponent like they play against Duke. Their resumé now consists of two wins against the Blue Devils, one against N.C. State, and ... literally nothing else. Their nonconference schedule was miserable. They were swept by Virginia and Florida State. Getting to the ACC championship game was the bare minimum from the start, and even that might not be enough. Winning the whole tournament might be their only way in at this point.
16. Kentucky: Oh man. What happened here? Kentucky was trending upwards after beating both Florida and Missouri without Nerlens Noel. Then the Wildcats suffered one of the most jaw-dropping losses imaginable by falling to Vanderbilt in the SEC quarterfinals. It wasn't even close. And it absolutely should cost Kentucky a bid.
17. Massachusetts: Still alive in the Atlantic 10 tournament, and still technically a bubble team. Like Maryland, though, the Minutemen are behind too many teams in the queue and really need to win the A-10's automatic bid.
18 & 19. Baylor and Iowa: Both were on the periphery of the bubble entering the tournament, but both lost heartbreaking quarterfinal games. Almost certainly out.
This whole thing is very fluid. Teams are rising from the bubble grave (Maryland, Ole Miss, Alabama), and others are falling flat on their faces (Kentucky, Virginia, KENTUCKY). If the Selection Committee had to make its decision right now, those last 11 slots would probably be taken by the six "Likelies," along with, say, Boise State, Saint Mary's, La Salle, Middle Tennessee State, and [insert random SEC team here].
It's important to note, however, that most of those last few teams are idle. They're done playing and can't improve their stock. This leaves them vulnerable to being leapfrogged by teams that are still alive. In fact, if Alabama and Ole Miss both win Saturday in the semifinals (against Florida and Vandy,) they would probably both move into the projected field of 68, bumping two of those other helpless teams out. Suddenly, the SEC has become the central theater of bubble warfare. And the fact that La Salle and Saint Mary's suddenly have huge rooting interests in the SEC Tournament semifinals speaks to just how Mad things get around this time of year.
Well, that's oversimplifying things. Crazy stuff could still hypothetically happen in a few conference tournaments, like Maryland winning the ACC, which would throw a wrench into everything. But accounting for all the teams that have already locked themselves into the NCAA Tournament field regardless of any other shenanigans, there are still about 11 at-large spots available. Here are the programs in contention for those spots, ordered roughly from safest to most in danger of Sunday disappointment.
The Likelies (teams that are probably in the safe Group of Eleven, but "lock" is too strong a word)
1. Villanova: Did lose to Louisville in the Big East tournament, but took care of business by avoiding a bad loss to St. John's before that. Villanova has too many good wins (Louisville, Georgetown, Syracuse, Marquette) to miss out on March Madness. One would think.
2. Temple: Scored a huge comeback victory against VCU in the regular season finale. That, combined with an 11-5 record in the Atlantic 10 and nonconference wins over Syracuse and Villanova, ought to be enough for the Owls. Still not a lock thanks to some horrifying losses and an early exit from the Atlantic 10 tournament.
3. Iowa State: The Cyclones were down by as many as 14 points in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament against Oklahoma. A loss could have sent them to the NIT. Instead, they rallied to defeat another quality bubble team (on a neutral floor). Should be okay even after falling to Kansas in the semis.
4. Oklahoma: Thanks to the aforementioned comeback, the Sooners probably just got leapfrogged by Iowa State on the Selection Committee's totem pole. They've now lost three out of five, including defeats to Texas and TCU. This might have cost Oklahoma a bid -- in a different year. In 2013, the rest of the bubble is too weak for the Sooners to be relegated to the NIT.
5. Colorado: Actually a very nice resumé here. The 39th-best RPI, a sweep of Oregon, and wins over Colorado State, Arizona, and California. The Buffaloes would've been a lock ... had they not lost their final home game of the year to Oregon State. Thankfully they won the rematch in the opening round of the Pac-12 Tournament, though they were eliminated by Arizona a day later. Looking good.
6. California: In the same boat as Colorado. Cal should've been a lock, then lost the final two games of the season -- to Stanford and Utah. Oof. It would still be a surprise if the second-place team in the Pac-12 didn't make the tournament.
For you math wizards, that leaves only five bids remaining for everybody else. This is where things get sticky.
The True Coin-Flips (teams that legitimately won't have any idea about their fate until Greg Gumbel does/doesn't announce their name on Sunday's national broadcast)
7. Boise State: The Broncos' case rests almost entirely on how strong the Selection Committee thinks the Mountain West Conference really is. They went 9-7 in the MWC with wins over UNLV, Colorado State, and San Diego State, as well as a road nonconference win at Creighton. However, they bowed out in the first round of their conference tournament and can't add to their resumé. So they're stuck in bubble limbo. It may come down to the Committee deciding between a fifth team from the MWC and a third or fourth from the SEC. I'd rather see Boise State.
8. Saint Mary's: A difficult team to judge. The Gaels have a good RPI (33) and a nice 23-6 record (with half of those losses coming to Gonzaga); they went to the WCC title game; and they look pretty good. Yet they also did nothing outside of the West Coast Conference besides beating Creighton at home. Subjectively, Saint Mary's is good enough to make the tournament. It's also really easy to envision a scenario in which the Selection Committee makes an example out of the Gaels by leaving them out of the field as punishment for undertaking a pansy schedule.
9. La Salle: A lot like Boise State, except we're talking about the fifth team out of the Atlantic 10 instead of the MWC. The RPI is good at 38, and they beat Butler, VCU, and Villanova. A solid body of work here. The problem: they're out of the A-10 Tournament and risk being leapfrogged by one of the teams below.
10. Alabama: One of the big bubble winners on a busy Friday. The Crimson Tide won what was basically an elimination game against Tennessee to advance to the SEC semifinals, where they'll face Florida. A win in that game wouldn't just put Alabama in position for an at-large berth -- it would put them a win away from taking the decision out of the Committee's hands by simply stealing the SEC's automatic bid.
11. Middle Tennessee State: If an off-the-map school is going to get a surprise bid, this is the one. The Blue Raiders went 19-1 in the Sun Belt but were upset in the quarterfinals of their conference tournament, creating an interesting predicament. Their RPI ranks 31st in the country -- historically, an RPI that high is almost always good enough to make the tournament. Unfortunately, their only good win came against Ole Miss. That's all they've got. There's no way to know how the Committee is going to handle this wild card.
12. Ole Miss: It's bizarre that Ole Miss and Middle Tennessee State happened to play each other months ago. The latter's victory in that game could end up being hugely significant. However, Ole Miss does have an edge: they're still playing. They pulled off a must-have comeback victory against Missouri on Friday to advance to the semifinals of the SEC tournament, where they'll face Vanderbilt. A win in that game, and thus an appearance in the finals, could easily secure this team a bid.
The Faces Pressed Up Against the Window (teams that need either an obscenely generous decision from the Selection Committee or a deep conference tournament run to reach the field of 68)
13. Tennessee: Just came up short in the SEC quarterfinals against Alabama. That didn't help the key flaw on their resumé, a lack of a quality win away from home. How much respect will the Selection Committee have for the SEC? We'll find out soon enough.
14. Virginia: The Cavs have more than enough good wins. It's the bad losses that cripple their resumé and push their RPI into the 60s. The consensus was that they'd have to do damage in the ACC Tournament to stay alive; then they were blown out by N.C. State. Oh well. You should've beaten Old Dominion, Virginia. This will be an interesting litmus test with regard to what the Committee values more -- the ability to beat elite teams or the ability to avoid bad losses.
15. Maryland: If only the Terrapins played every opponent like they play against Duke. Their resumé now consists of two wins against the Blue Devils, one against N.C. State, and ... literally nothing else. Their nonconference schedule was miserable. They were swept by Virginia and Florida State. Getting to the ACC championship game was the bare minimum from the start, and even that might not be enough. Winning the whole tournament might be their only way in at this point.
16. Kentucky: Oh man. What happened here? Kentucky was trending upwards after beating both Florida and Missouri without Nerlens Noel. Then the Wildcats suffered one of the most jaw-dropping losses imaginable by falling to Vanderbilt in the SEC quarterfinals. It wasn't even close. And it absolutely should cost Kentucky a bid.
17. Massachusetts: Still alive in the Atlantic 10 tournament, and still technically a bubble team. Like Maryland, though, the Minutemen are behind too many teams in the queue and really need to win the A-10's automatic bid.
18 & 19. Baylor and Iowa: Both were on the periphery of the bubble entering the tournament, but both lost heartbreaking quarterfinal games. Almost certainly out.
This whole thing is very fluid. Teams are rising from the bubble grave (Maryland, Ole Miss, Alabama), and others are falling flat on their faces (Kentucky, Virginia, KENTUCKY). If the Selection Committee had to make its decision right now, those last 11 slots would probably be taken by the six "Likelies," along with, say, Boise State, Saint Mary's, La Salle, Middle Tennessee State, and [insert random SEC team here].
It's important to note, however, that most of those last few teams are idle. They're done playing and can't improve their stock. This leaves them vulnerable to being leapfrogged by teams that are still alive. In fact, if Alabama and Ole Miss both win Saturday in the semifinals (against Florida and Vandy,) they would probably both move into the projected field of 68, bumping two of those other helpless teams out. Suddenly, the SEC has become the central theater of bubble warfare. And the fact that La Salle and Saint Mary's suddenly have huge rooting interests in the SEC Tournament semifinals speaks to just how Mad things get around this time of year.
Wednesday, March 13, 2013
Handing out Hardware: Recapping the College Basketball Season
Right now, it's the calm before the storm. Very soon, conference tournaments are going to kick into hyperdrive; then the Selection Committee will release The Bracket, President Obama will make his picks, and the Madness will begin. Once all that gets underway, what happened during the regular season tends to be forgotten. The three-week storm has come to mean more than the four-month journey. So before the madness sets in, let's recognize the best accomplishments of the last four months by handing out some regular-season awards.
Player of the Year
5. Doug McDermott (Creighton). He gets dinged for playing on a team that lost five games in the Missouri Valley Conference. Otherwise, his numbers would've blown the rest of the field out of the water: 23.1 points and 7.5 rebounds per game while shooting 56% from the field, almost 50% from 3-point range, and 86% at the line.
4. Kelly Olynyk (Gonzaga). Came out of nowhere to become the best player on the #1 team in the polls. The nation's most efficient forward averaged 17.5 points per game shooting a ridiculous 65% from the field. And thanks to Gonzaga's depth (and frequent blowout wins), he accumulated those stats while averaging only 25 minutes per game.
3. Victor Oladipo (Indiana). Like Olynyk, Oladipo's shocking improvement caught everyone by surprise. While he doesn't stand out in one statistical category, it's his across-the-board impact that makes him so valuable: 13.7 points, 6.2 rebounds, 2.2 steals, 2.1 assists, 61% from the field, 46% from 3-point range, and lockdown defense.
2. Otto Porter (Georgetown). Basically did exactly what Victor Oladipo did. The difference: teams facing Georgetown didn't have to worry about Cody Zeller down low or Jordan Hulls on the perimeter. Porter is pretty much the only offensive threat the Hoyas have, and he was a monster anyway. How did a Georgetown team that wasn't expected to do anything somehow end up with a shot at a #1 seed? Otto Porter.
1. Trey Burke (Michigan). He's a guard who shoots 49% from the field in the toughest conference. He dishes out nearly seven assists and commits just two turnovers per game. The freshman-dependent offense that he runs is hyper-efficient. When it comes to the most important position on the basketball court, Trey Burke laps the field.
Defensive Player of the Year
Jeff Withey (Kansas). Withey set the Big 12 career blocks record and anchored a Kansas defense that allowed the lowest field-goal percentage of any team in the country. Amazingly, he averages twice as many blocks per game (4) as fouls committed (1.9). But most importantly, he provided the inspiration for a website (witheyface.com) that chronicles all of the outlandish faces he makes while on the court.
Freshman of the Year
Marcus Smart (Oklahoma State). It's safe to say that if you took Smart off of Oklahoma State's roster, the Cowboys wouldn't even be a tournament team. The same can't be said of any other freshman out there.
Coach of the Year
Jim Larranaga (Miami). The movie version of Larranaga's career would have ended with him taking 11-seed George Mason to the Final Four in 2006 and then walking off into the sunset. Yet seven years later, he won the ACC title at a school that had never cared about basketball, with players that his predecessor had recruited. He beat Duke and North Carolina at home by a combined 53 points. He also oversaw the breakout performance of sophomore point guard Shane Larkin, who averaged 13.7 points and 4.4 assists per game on 48% shooting.
Team of the Year
Gonzaga Bulldogs. No, they wouldn't win the award for Most Talented or Best Team. But when it comes to the team that was the most consistent throughout the entire season, it's Gonzaga. They played a difficult nonconference schedule, dominated the WCC, ascended to the country's #1 ranking, breezed through their league tournament, and will likely be rewarded with a number-one seed. Kelly Olynyk was a Player of the Year candidate, but the most striking thing about this squad was its selflessness. 11 different Zags averaged at least 8 minutes per game while only one of those players, point guard Kevin Pangos, averaged more than 30 minutes. NBA prospect Przemek Karnowski got hardly any playing time. Mike Hart played 17 minutes per game for the #1 team in the country yet only took 33 shots all season, accepting his role as a lockdown defensive player. The Team of the Year was Gonzaga, without any doubt.
Image of the Year
It's easily the SEC's leading scorer, Marshall Henderson of Ole Miss, taunting a cornucopia of Auburn bros. There's a lot going on here. It's like a modern-day Guernica.
Best Single-Game Performance
5. Jerian Grant (Notre Dame). If this category was named "Best Final-Minute Performance," Grant would win the award hands-down. With 44 seconds remaining against Louisville on February 9th, Notre Dame was trailing 56-48 when Grant hit a 3 to cut the lead to 5. Ten seconds later, he sank another one. Eight seconds later, he sank a third. And ten seconds after that, he tied the game on a driving layup and a free throw. Between the 44-second mark and the 16-second mark, Grant had erased an eight-point deficit by scoring twelve points in four possessions. Notre Dame would end up winning the game. After five overtimes.
4. Doug McDermott (Creighton). Really, you could pick any of his best performances out of a hat. But the cherry on top of Doug McDermott's season was the masterpiece he put together against Wichita State in the regular season finale on March 2nd. In a 91-79 win that clinched the Missouri Valley title for Creighton, McDermott scored 41 points on 15-of-18 shooting. Fifteen of eighteen. Holy efficiency, Batman.
3. Ryan Kelly (Duke). The fact that he was even playing against Miami on March 2nd was a surprise. The fact that he played more than 10 minutes was a shock. So the fact that Ryan Kelly scored 36 points with seven made three-pointers in a 79-76 Duke win was ... unthinkable.
2. Elijah Johnson (Kansas). Johnson was so bang-your-head-against-a-coffee-table awful during Kansas's three-game losing streak that Bill Self even called him out publicly. Maybe the coach knew what he was doing. Johnson responded by scoring 36 points and single-handedly leading his team to a win at Iowa State on February 25th. Eight of his points came in the final 29 seconds (Jerian Grant scoffs) to erase a late deficit, and twelve more came in overtime of the 108-96 victory.
1. Kendall Williams (New Mexico). On February 23rd, Williams went off for 46 points and 10 made three-pointers on 13 attempts to secure a 91-82 win at Colorado State, a team that didn't lose any other home game all season. That can't be topped.
Biggest Shot
5. Rotnei Clarke (Butler). This game-winning shot to beat Marquette in November's Maui Invitational had absolutely no business going in.
4. Tyler Griffey (Illinois). Usually, when there's 0.9 seconds left on the clock in a tie game, nothing of note happens. There's just not enough time to get off a decent shot. That must have been what Indiana was thinking, too.
3. Alex Barlow (Butler). Clearly, if there's a late, dramatic shot in a big game, odds are that Butler was on the winning side and Indiana was on the losing side. Butler handed the Hoosiers their first loss of the season way back on December 15th when former walk-on Alex Barlow hit the go-ahead layup with seconds remaining in overtime to stun the #1 team in the country. And somehow this wasn't even the biggest shot by a Butler player this season.
2. Ben Brust (Wisconsin). !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
1. Roosevelt Jones (Butler). This shot, this play, and this game all come together to form the most iconic moment of the 2012-2013 season. On one side, there's the Butler Bulldogs, whose storybook rise under Brad Stevens couldn't have ever been scripted by anyone because that person would've been fired by his editor for wasting precious company hours on fairy tales. On the other side, there's the Gonzaga Bulldogs, the original Cinderella team, who lost this game in heartbreaking fashion but haven't lost another one since, en route to an undefeated conference season and an improbable #1 ranking. And then take a step back to realize that the Game/Moment of the Year didn't feature a blue-blood powerhouse like Kentucky, North Carolina, Duke, or Kansas, but rather two programs named Butler and Gonzaga. This is college basketball, right here. Dick Vitale (perhaps unintentionally) summarizes it best when, during the postgame scrum, he shouts, "Are you serious, America?!"
Player of the Year
5. Doug McDermott (Creighton). He gets dinged for playing on a team that lost five games in the Missouri Valley Conference. Otherwise, his numbers would've blown the rest of the field out of the water: 23.1 points and 7.5 rebounds per game while shooting 56% from the field, almost 50% from 3-point range, and 86% at the line.
4. Kelly Olynyk (Gonzaga). Came out of nowhere to become the best player on the #1 team in the polls. The nation's most efficient forward averaged 17.5 points per game shooting a ridiculous 65% from the field. And thanks to Gonzaga's depth (and frequent blowout wins), he accumulated those stats while averaging only 25 minutes per game.
3. Victor Oladipo (Indiana). Like Olynyk, Oladipo's shocking improvement caught everyone by surprise. While he doesn't stand out in one statistical category, it's his across-the-board impact that makes him so valuable: 13.7 points, 6.2 rebounds, 2.2 steals, 2.1 assists, 61% from the field, 46% from 3-point range, and lockdown defense.
2. Otto Porter (Georgetown). Basically did exactly what Victor Oladipo did. The difference: teams facing Georgetown didn't have to worry about Cody Zeller down low or Jordan Hulls on the perimeter. Porter is pretty much the only offensive threat the Hoyas have, and he was a monster anyway. How did a Georgetown team that wasn't expected to do anything somehow end up with a shot at a #1 seed? Otto Porter.
1. Trey Burke (Michigan). He's a guard who shoots 49% from the field in the toughest conference. He dishes out nearly seven assists and commits just two turnovers per game. The freshman-dependent offense that he runs is hyper-efficient. When it comes to the most important position on the basketball court, Trey Burke laps the field.
Defensive Player of the Year
Jeff Withey (Kansas). Withey set the Big 12 career blocks record and anchored a Kansas defense that allowed the lowest field-goal percentage of any team in the country. Amazingly, he averages twice as many blocks per game (4) as fouls committed (1.9). But most importantly, he provided the inspiration for a website (witheyface.com) that chronicles all of the outlandish faces he makes while on the court.
Freshman of the Year
Marcus Smart (Oklahoma State). It's safe to say that if you took Smart off of Oklahoma State's roster, the Cowboys wouldn't even be a tournament team. The same can't be said of any other freshman out there.
Coach of the Year
Jim Larranaga (Miami). The movie version of Larranaga's career would have ended with him taking 11-seed George Mason to the Final Four in 2006 and then walking off into the sunset. Yet seven years later, he won the ACC title at a school that had never cared about basketball, with players that his predecessor had recruited. He beat Duke and North Carolina at home by a combined 53 points. He also oversaw the breakout performance of sophomore point guard Shane Larkin, who averaged 13.7 points and 4.4 assists per game on 48% shooting.
Team of the Year
Gonzaga Bulldogs. No, they wouldn't win the award for Most Talented or Best Team. But when it comes to the team that was the most consistent throughout the entire season, it's Gonzaga. They played a difficult nonconference schedule, dominated the WCC, ascended to the country's #1 ranking, breezed through their league tournament, and will likely be rewarded with a number-one seed. Kelly Olynyk was a Player of the Year candidate, but the most striking thing about this squad was its selflessness. 11 different Zags averaged at least 8 minutes per game while only one of those players, point guard Kevin Pangos, averaged more than 30 minutes. NBA prospect Przemek Karnowski got hardly any playing time. Mike Hart played 17 minutes per game for the #1 team in the country yet only took 33 shots all season, accepting his role as a lockdown defensive player. The Team of the Year was Gonzaga, without any doubt.
Image of the Year
It's easily the SEC's leading scorer, Marshall Henderson of Ole Miss, taunting a cornucopia of Auburn bros. There's a lot going on here. It's like a modern-day Guernica.
Best Single-Game Performance
5. Jerian Grant (Notre Dame). If this category was named "Best Final-Minute Performance," Grant would win the award hands-down. With 44 seconds remaining against Louisville on February 9th, Notre Dame was trailing 56-48 when Grant hit a 3 to cut the lead to 5. Ten seconds later, he sank another one. Eight seconds later, he sank a third. And ten seconds after that, he tied the game on a driving layup and a free throw. Between the 44-second mark and the 16-second mark, Grant had erased an eight-point deficit by scoring twelve points in four possessions. Notre Dame would end up winning the game. After five overtimes.
4. Doug McDermott (Creighton). Really, you could pick any of his best performances out of a hat. But the cherry on top of Doug McDermott's season was the masterpiece he put together against Wichita State in the regular season finale on March 2nd. In a 91-79 win that clinched the Missouri Valley title for Creighton, McDermott scored 41 points on 15-of-18 shooting. Fifteen of eighteen. Holy efficiency, Batman.
3. Ryan Kelly (Duke). The fact that he was even playing against Miami on March 2nd was a surprise. The fact that he played more than 10 minutes was a shock. So the fact that Ryan Kelly scored 36 points with seven made three-pointers in a 79-76 Duke win was ... unthinkable.
2. Elijah Johnson (Kansas). Johnson was so bang-your-head-against-a-coffee-table awful during Kansas's three-game losing streak that Bill Self even called him out publicly. Maybe the coach knew what he was doing. Johnson responded by scoring 36 points and single-handedly leading his team to a win at Iowa State on February 25th. Eight of his points came in the final 29 seconds (Jerian Grant scoffs) to erase a late deficit, and twelve more came in overtime of the 108-96 victory.
1. Kendall Williams (New Mexico). On February 23rd, Williams went off for 46 points and 10 made three-pointers on 13 attempts to secure a 91-82 win at Colorado State, a team that didn't lose any other home game all season. That can't be topped.
Biggest Shot
5. Rotnei Clarke (Butler). This game-winning shot to beat Marquette in November's Maui Invitational had absolutely no business going in.
4. Tyler Griffey (Illinois). Usually, when there's 0.9 seconds left on the clock in a tie game, nothing of note happens. There's just not enough time to get off a decent shot. That must have been what Indiana was thinking, too.
3. Alex Barlow (Butler). Clearly, if there's a late, dramatic shot in a big game, odds are that Butler was on the winning side and Indiana was on the losing side. Butler handed the Hoosiers their first loss of the season way back on December 15th when former walk-on Alex Barlow hit the go-ahead layup with seconds remaining in overtime to stun the #1 team in the country. And somehow this wasn't even the biggest shot by a Butler player this season.
2. Ben Brust (Wisconsin). !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
1. Roosevelt Jones (Butler). This shot, this play, and this game all come together to form the most iconic moment of the 2012-2013 season. On one side, there's the Butler Bulldogs, whose storybook rise under Brad Stevens couldn't have ever been scripted by anyone because that person would've been fired by his editor for wasting precious company hours on fairy tales. On the other side, there's the Gonzaga Bulldogs, the original Cinderella team, who lost this game in heartbreaking fashion but haven't lost another one since, en route to an undefeated conference season and an improbable #1 ranking. And then take a step back to realize that the Game/Moment of the Year didn't feature a blue-blood powerhouse like Kentucky, North Carolina, Duke, or Kansas, but rather two programs named Butler and Gonzaga. This is college basketball, right here. Dick Vitale (perhaps unintentionally) summarizes it best when, during the postgame scrum, he shouts, "Are you serious, America?!"
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