Bracketeering, Part Two: The West Region

If a surprise team ends up making the Final Four, chances are it will come from the West Region. At the top you'll find the weakest #1 seed (Gonzaga) and weakest #2 seed (Ohio State) in the field, along with a #3 seed (New Mexico) that few people ever saw play. Throw in some lower-seeded sleepers like Wisconsin, Arizona, and Pittsburgh, plus potential Cinderellas like Belmont and Ole Miss, and the West could be the bracket that collapses in a whirlpool of delicious chaos. Some scattered thoughts on picking this region:

1. The primary concern about Gonzaga is how well their efficient offense will perform against tenacious defenses, the likes of which don't exist in the West Coast Conference. We're definitely going to find out. The Zags' path to the Final Four could potentially go through Pitt in the Round of 32, Wisconsin in the Sweet Sixteen, and Ohio State or New Mexico in the Elite Eight. All four of those teams are among the top 20 defensive units in the country. Good luck, fair sirs.

2. Every bracket has an Enigma Team that could go to the Final Four or lose in the first round. In the West, it's Arizona. The sixth-seeded Wildcats have a ton of talented players and they proved it by beating Florida and Miami earlier in the season. But they also finished poorly down the stretch in the Pac-12 and don't really have a true point guard. Having to face Belmont's excellent guards in the first round won't help, either. A first-round exit seems much more likely than a deep run.

3. In each of the last five NCAA Tournaments, a 4-seed has fallen to a 13-seed in the first round (last year, it was Michigan losing to Ohio). Kansas State looks like the most vulnerable candidate this time around. Whereas the other 4-seeds will be playing 13-seeds from tiny conferences, Kansas State is stuck playing the winner of the play-in game between La Salle and Boise State, both of which played in strong leagues that got five teams into the tournament.

4. One of the classic bracket-picking strategies is finding #12 seeds that have a good chance of beating #5 seeds. Those upsets happen at a surprisingly high frequency. But is anyone actually taking Ole Miss over Wisconsin in this region? Regardless of the Rebels' inspiring run through the SEC tournament, they're still not a particularly good team. Wisconsin will find a way to shut down the outspoken scorer Marshall Henderson. Defense trumps narrative.

5. The double-digit seed with the most long-term potential here? It's easily Iowa State. The Cyclones knock down more three-pointers than basically anyone. Their six core players all average at least nine points a game, giving them a balanced and dangerous offensive attack. Their defense? Mostly nonexistent. Yet given how many teams in this region struggle to score, Iowa State could do some damage if the shots are falling.

So, What Happens? A bunch of upsets early, as K-State, Arizona, and Notre Dame all fall in the first round. Marshall Henderson is never heard from again. New Mexico proves it belongs with the big boys by reaching the Sweet Sixteen. Gonzaga gets there too, but no further, thanks to Wisconsin's frustrating style. And Ohio State emerges from the fray to reach its second consecutive Final Four.