While most of the discussion within college basketball has centered around the #1 seeds, the debate over the teams on the "bubble" is even more significant. These are the 15 or 20 programs jostling with each other for the final few slots in the NCAA Tournament field. And though none of them are going to win the national title, they're slated to be 11- or 12-seeds -- in other words, the most likely candidates to pull off improbable upsets and bust our brackets. Deciding which of them make the field in the first place is a process with huge, domino-like repercussions. Most bubble teams fall under these four categories:
1. High Peaks, Lower Valleys
What should the Selection Committee value more -- the ability to get great wins, or the ability to avoid bad losses? The answer to that question will decide the fate of the teams in this category, all of which have proven they can hang with the elite, but also fail spectacularly against weaker opponents. The poster child here is Villanova. The Wildcats beat Louisville and Syracuse in the same week in January, and have also beaten Georgetown, Connecticut, and Marquette. But the losses are ugly: Columbia, Alabama, Seton Hall, and Providence (twice). Temple is another example, having beaten Syracuse, fellow bubble-dweller Villanova, and Saint Louis, but also losing to Canisius and four inferior teams within the Atlantic 10, including last-place Duquesne. Virginia has a strange case too: a nonconference win at Wisconsin and ACC wins over Duke, N.C. State, and North Carolina are all very impressive, until you see each of their seven stunning losses (George Mason, Delaware, Old Dominion, Wake Forest, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Boston College).
Verdict: All three pass the eye test, but all three need to avoid yet another bad loss in their conference tournaments. Based on their collective track records ... that's not exactly a given.
2. Dominant Season in a Minor Conference
Not all bubble teams have bad losses. Some actually have gaudy records. But they were achieved in small conferences, so we don't have any idea how good they really are. Memphis isn't even on the bubble, yet serves as the best example here -- the Tigers entered the national polls last week and are considered a tournament lock thanks to a 15-0 record in Conference USA. Here's the thing, though: their best nonconference win was against Harvard. Other minor conferences have similarly dominant teams: Akron is 14-1 in the Mid-American Conference, Belmont is 14-2 in the Ohio Valley, Louisiana Tech is 16-0 in the Western Athletic Conference, and Middle Tennessee is 19-1 in the Sun Belt. Who knows how the Selection Committee can judge these teams.
Verdict: Other than Memphis, none of these teams can feel confident about anything without winning their conference tournaments.
3. Thank Heavens for RPI
These teams are so far out of the public spotlight that most fans have no idea they're even in the tournament discussion. The RPI is their saving grace. Boise State, for instance, has an RPI that ranks 44th nationally, right behind tournament locks Notre Dame and Wisconsin. The only good team Saint Mary's has beaten is Creighton, but the Gaels have the 40th-best RPI. La Salle ranks 36th. Colorado is 30th. Are these virtually-unknown teams worthy, or are they RPI creations?
Verdict: Colorado should be fine with its wins against the top of the Pac-12 and Boise State benefits from playing in the strong Mountain West. La Salle and Saint Mary's probably need to open more eyes in their conference tournaments.
4. Decent Record in a Major Conference (Probably the SEC)
And this is where most bubble cases fall. Look no further than Iowa. If the Big Ten is such a strong league, then should the Hawkeyes' 8-9 conference record be good enough for a tournament berth? They've also beaten Illinois, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, with an RPI that ranks 53rd (although their nonconference schedule was pathetic). Iowa State in the Big 12 and Providence in the Big East have similar profiles. But most of these cases can be found in the SEC, which is so weak at the bottom that no fewer than four teams have built up deceptively-strong conference records: Kentucky (11-5), Ole Miss (11-6), Alabama (11-6), and Tennessee (10-7). Good luck separating those teams from each other.
Verdict: Based on the eye test alone, Iowa State is the best team in this group, while the rest of them have no right to participate in March Madness. But given the inherent chaos in conference tournaments, the SEC will probably get one or two of its bubble teams into the field, with Kentucky sitting as the most likely of the four.
No comments:
Post a Comment