The Curious Case of the Fighting Illini

Last night, the Fighting Illini of Illinois pulled off an unlikely and memorable upset over #1 Indiana. But are they going to be snubbed by the Selection Committee anyway?

Illinois, even after the win, is still just 3-7 in the Big Ten. There have been a few instances of teams with sub-.500 records in conference play earning a ticket to the NCAA Tournament. But most of them just missed an even record by a single game, going 8-10 or something along those lines. Illinois might finish significantly worse than 8-10.

The Illini have eight games remaining. One of them is a road game at Michigan, and one of them is a road game at Ohio State. A win in either of those contests seems unlikely, which already puts Illinois at nine conference losses. Their other six games are:

Minnesota (road)
Purdue (home)
Northwestern (road)
Penn State (home
Nebraska (home)
Iowa (road)

If they win all six, the Illini get to 9-9 in the Big Ten, which would definitely be enough to earn a tournament bid. Lose one (say, at Minnesota) and the Illini drop to 8-10, which isn't exactly desirable, but in this year's Big Ten, it would probably still be acceptable.

Drop another one of those games, though? The Illini would be 7-11, which starts to look really ugly. 6-12 would outright disqualify them. Neither scenario is impossible. Illinois has lost to Northwestern and Purdue once already this year. Iowa can be tricky on its home floor, where the Hawkeyes have already taken down Wisconsin.

So the Illini need to be careful. They've already done the hard part: assemble an impressive group of good wins. They've beaten Ohio State on the road, which is one of the ten hardest things to do in the sport. They've beaten Gonzaga on the road, which is another one of the ten hardest things to do in the sport. They blew out Butler in Maui. And now Indiana. All four of those teams are currently ranked within the top 14 in the AP Poll. Nobody else can boast four wins like that.

No, the Illini don't need another marquee win. The only thing that can sink them now is that bad loss that sends their Big Ten record into unsightly territory, sinking their postseason chances. So don't mess around, Illinois. We need you in the NCAA Tournament. You're one of those teams that makes March Madness so perfectly unpredictable, because you could conceivably do anything from "make an Elite Eight run" to "lose in the first round to Middle Tennessee State," and we have no way of knowing which. So take care of business, Illinois. You've already beaten Ohio State, Gonzaga, Butler, and Indiana. Beating Purdue, Northwestern, Penn State, and Iowa really shouldn't be too much to ask.