Some Reactions to the MLB Draft

Last year, baseball's amateur draft featured one of the strongest classes ever. So there was the potential for 2012 to feel like a bit of a letdown--if not for the fact that MLB installed an entire new draft system featuring spending limits and penalties for surpassing them. Much of the event's intrigue rested in how teams would respond to the new rules, and if there was one clear casualty of the system, it was...

Mark Appel. Twelve months before the draft, the polished Stanford right-hander was the favorite to be picked first overall. 24 hours before the draft, nothing had changed: insiders reported that the Houston Astros would pick Appel first. But his name didn't come out of commissioner Bud Selig's mouth at the podium. Instead, he announced Carlos Correa, the dynamic shortstop from Puerto Rico. With Appel unwilling to back down from his bonus demands in a new era of draft spending limits, he slid all the way to #8, where the Pittsburgh Pirates called his name. After three straight years of drafts where the first overall pick held no drama (thanks a lot, Gerrit Cole, Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg), this kind of shock at #1 was certainly welcome. And it meant nothing but good news for...

The Houston Astros. A floundering franchise paid the price for ignoring the draft for a decade. Now, former Cardinals architect Jeff Luhnow is in charge, and his positive impact was immediate. Rather than pay top-dollar for The Industry's Consensus Pick at #1 overall, Mark Appel, Luhnow went with five-tool, 17-year-old shortstop Carlos Correa instead. Then, with their second pick at #41 overall, the Astros were able to snag high school pitcher Lance McCullers Jr., an explosive righty who easily could've gone in the top ten. And if they sign him, it'll be because of the money saved by passing on Appel for Correa. No team got more raw talent with their first few picks than the rebuilding Astros, except perhaps for...

The Toronto Blue Jays. GM Alex Anthopolous has established himself as one of MLB's most aggressive drafters, and even with the new restrictions, he did nothing to change his reputation. With five picks in the first and supplementary rounds, Anthopolous ended up with D.J. Davis (blazing fast high-school outfielder), Marcus Stroman (a small college righty destined for bullpen dominance), Matthew Smoral (huge high school lefty pitcher), Mitch Nay (a high school third baseman with big power), and Tyler Gonzales (a high school right-hander with an inconsistent but electric arm). An amazing haul. The Blue Jays won't sign everyone, but as usual, they'll walk away from this draft with some impact talents. It's one of the two most predictable draft strategies around, along with...

The Washington Nationals. They employ the simplest of strategies: pick the best talent available, regardless of scary bonus demands, scary injuries, or any other scary red flag. 2012 was no different: picking at #16 overall, the Nats went with high school right-hander Lucas Giolito. With a fastball that hits 100 mph, Giolito might've gone first overall were it not for an injury to an elbow ligament that ended his season prematurely. That makes it four consecutive years where the Nationals might have gotten the best talent available: Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, and now Giolito. A remarkable streak, almost as remarkable as one orchestrated by...

Billy Beane. Remarkably, the A's haven't selected a high schooler in the first round since Jeremy Bonderman in 2001, and GM Billy Beane even hated that pick. So, of course, Oakland chose three high school infielders with its first three picks this year. Couple this development with their signing of toolsy Cuban center fielder Yoenis Cespedes last winter, and it's pretty obvious that the A's philosophy is undergoing a significant makeover, just like...

The MLB Draft itself. The jury is still out on the changes to the system. Small-market teams like the Pirates and the Nationals used to be able to throw gobs of money at the draft to find the elite talent they can't afford in the free agent market. It was the only way to stay competitive against large payrolls. But now, with draft spending capped and subject to harsh penalties, they can't do that anymore. With only a fixed pool of money available to spend, Pittsburgh will need to skimp on the rest of its draft class in order to afford Mark Appel; ditto with Washington and Lucas Giolito. It's almost like those teams are punished for taking the best talent available. Furthermore, there's concern that the spending limits will drive two-way high school athletes to football and basketball, because teams can't dish out as many six-figure bonuses to prep players now. And finally, teams can't trade draft picks, which takes some drama out of the whole thing.

So yes, it's a work in progress. But the MLB Draft is still the best way for teams to build a championship roster. And it's still a pretty cool event.

Who Would You Take?

You're in charge of the Houston Astros. Your team has one of the weakest major league rosters in the league. Your farm system is mostly barren. Next year, you'll share a division with the rising powers in the AL West, the Rangers and Angels. You're years and years away from competing for a championship, and you're in desperate need of impact talent. Today, you're in charge of making the first overall pick of the MLB Draft. There is no obvious pick out there, no Bryce Harpers or Stephen Strasburgs for the taking. You also can't afford to screw up such an important decision.

Who would you take?

Player A: High school shortstop from Puerto Rico. Shot up draft boards very recently to become a near-certain top-5 pick. He's already a fantastic hitter despite being just 17 years old. He might not be fast enough to stick at short, though his bat is still good enough to be elite at third base if a switch becomes necessary. But beware: the last two high school position players to be selected first overall were Tim Beckham and Matt Bush; both were shortstops, too, and both were spectacular busts.

Player B: Right-handed college pitcher. Unlike Player A, he has long been viewed as a candidate for the first overall pick, and is seen as a very safe selection. With the frame of a workhorse starter and three solid pitches, he won't need much time in the minors before reaching Houston. The concerns rest in his heavy college workload, and the potential implications for his arm. Examples of "safe" college pitchers like Player B who were taken #1 overall include David Price, but also Bryan Bullington.

Player C: High school outfielder from the South. Possibly the most talented player in the draft, featuring all five tools. While raw, he's blazing fast, has a strong arm, and could be an all-time great at the major league level. He could also end up like the last can't-miss high school outfielder selected first overall: Delmon Young.

Player D: College catcher. He's both a strong defender behind the plate, and one of the better hitters in all of college baseball. Good power at a premium position is something few teams could pass on, even if Player D doesn't have the star upside as the other candidates for the first overall pick.

Player E: Right-handed high school pitcher. With a dominant fastball that was clocked at 100 mph and developing secondary pitches, he has the potential to become an ace in the majors and the best pitcher from this draft class. The problem? He strained his ulnar collateral ligament back in March and hasn't pitched since. That makes him the biggest risk/reward pick in the entire draft.

So who do you take?

Pitching or hitting? High school or college? Player A (Carlos Correa) because he was born in 1994 and has pure hitting ability at a premium position? Player B (Mark Appel) because he can reach the majors quickly and pitch at a high level once he arrives? Player C (Byron Buxton) because he might become Ken Griffey Jr.? Player D (Mike Zunino) because he's a safe pick in a draft defined by volatility and randomness? Or Player E (Lucas Giolito) because his untimely injury might just be a minor obstacle in his path to becoming one of MLB's most dominant pitchers?

It's a tough choice, and one the Astros can't afford to screw up. Reports indicate that they're going to take Mark Appel, which makes sense given that he's relatively safe while simultaneously offering good upside. And yet, there's still room to question that pick: Appel doesn't appear to be significantly better than the other college pitchers available, like Kevin Gausman and Kyle Zimmer. If he's not clearly the best player at his own position, then does he deserve to be selected first overall, ahead of potential stars like Buxton and Correa?

I don't know. Nobody does. That's the great part about the MLB Draft--no one really knows what they're doing. It's hardly a popular event, but it's a fascinatingly random one filled with nuance, quirks, steals, busts, and pure guesses. The Astros are on the clock, and I don't envy them.

A Tale of Two Brandons: Allen and Weeden

Here's a riddle. Brandon Allen, a recent waiver pickup for the eternally-lovable Tampa Bay Rays, is at the plate in the bottom of the ninth inning. His team is down one run, with B.J. Upton at first base. He has big-time power.

Opposing Allen is inconsistent Angels closer Jordan Walden, trying to protect his team's one-run lead and nail down the win to avoid a sweep. The Angels are currently in the midst of a nightmarish start to the season in which everything imaginable is going wrong.

Taking all this into account...what is the result of the Allen vs. Walden at-bat? The answer lies below in video form:

That was perhaps the most predictable ending in baseball history.

On a different note: with the 22nd overall pick in Thursday night's NFL Draft, the Cleveland Brows selected Brandon Weeden, a 28-year-old quarterback out of Oklahoma State. Remarkably, Weeden was also selected in the second round of the Major League Baseball Draft--ten years ago. He was picked by the New York Yankees 71st overall, as a right-handed pitcher, in the somewhat-famous "Moneyball draft" of 2002. Weeden's baseball career obviously never took off, but after the 2003 season, he was part of the trade that brought Kevin Brown to New York.

Yes, Cleveland: your quarterback of the future was traded for Kevin Brown almost a decade ago. Let that sink in.

This case also highlights the incredible randomness of the 50-round lottery known as the MLB Draft compared to the NFL's version. After the first 60 picks or so, perhaps one player per round becomes a useful major leaguer. Some random observations from 2002 to illustrate these points:

• The Yankees selected Weeden nine picks before the Tigers drafted future-Yankees-center-fielder Curtis Granderson and fifteen rounds before the Dodgers grabbed future-Yankees-catcher Russell Martin.
• Like all MLB drafts, the middle rounds were almost completely barren of MLB talent...except, oddly, for the 40th round, in which Hunter Pence was taken by the Brewers, Matt Garza was taken by the Rockies, and Jonathan Papelbon was taken by the A's. Obviously, none of those players signed with those teams, and all went to college before reentering the draft later.
• Talk about random: the first three high school pitchers (a notoriously risky commodity) selected were Chris Gruler, Adam Loewen, and Clint Everts, none of whom amounted to anything. The next four high school pitchers taken? Zack Greinke, Scott Kazmir, Cole Hamels, and Matt Cain.
• Want to know why the Pirates have been so bad for so long? With the first overall pick, in a draft that included the high school pitchers mentioned above, plus Prince Fielder, Joey Votto, B.J. Upton, Brian McCann, Jon Lester, Josh Johnson, Curtis Granderson, and Nick Swisher, the Pirates selected... Bryan Bullington. It has been a long trek through the desert for Pittsburgh.