Remembering the Bizarre 2010 Giants (Or What's Left of Them)

The 2010 San Francisco Giants will always be one of the flukiest teams to ever win a major sports championship. I know this to be true because their starting lineup from Game 5 of the World Series, when they clinched the title against Cliff Lee and the Texas Rangers, looked like this:

November 1, 2010

RF Andres Torres
2B Freddy Sanchez
C Buster Posey
LF Cody Ross
3B Juan Uribe
1B Aubrey Huff
DH Pat Burrell
SS Edgar Renteria
CF Aaron Rowand

As a reference point, here's San Francisco's current lineup from a game just a few days ago against Colorado:

May 18, 2013

CF Angel Pagan
2B Marco Scutaro
3B Pablo Sandoval
C Buster Posey
RF Hunter Pence
1B Brandon Belt
LF Gregor Blanco
SS Brandon Crawford
P Tim Lincecum

Remarkably, just two and a half years later, only one player from that Game 5 lineup in 2010 is still starting for the Giants today: the mythical prepubescent creature known as Buster Posey. That's amazing, and a testament to how utterly random that 2010 lineup really was. Comparatively: today's Red Sox still have three starters from their 2007 championship team, which won the World Series three years before the Giants did (their names are Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, and Jacoby Ellsbury). The Phillies still have four from their 2008 championship (Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Carlos Ruiz). And the Yankees still have four from 2009 (Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, and Robinson Cano). But the 2010 Giants -- the most recent of all these champions -- are already left with just one.

Even more amazingly: not only are most of the 2010 Giants no longer with the franchise; many of them are completely out of baseball altogether, or headed that way (again, less than three years later). There exists an assumption that a championship-winning team will have multiple young, elite hitters still in the prime of their careers. The 2010 Giants, though, were mostly an assembly of mediocre or even downright-terrible veterans on the downside of their careers who somehow collectively caught lightning in a bottle for a few months. A closer look at that Game 5 lineup:

RF Andres Torres. Before 2010, the 32-year old Torres had never once played even a full half-season in the majors. Yet that year, he led off for the Giants, played in 139 games, hit 16 homers, stole 26 bases, and posted a .823 OPS. In the three subsequent years since 2010, Torres' OPS totals have plummeted back down to .643, .664, and now .578. Andres Torres has been an above-average MLB starter in exactly one season since arriving in the majors in 2002; it happened to come in 2010 for the World Series champions. This will be a recurring theme.

2B Freddy Sanchez. Acquired in a trade in mid-2009, Sanchez hit .292 as a 32-year-old second baseman for the 2010 Giants. After Game 5 of the World Series, his major league career only lasted for 60 more games before chronic injuries forced him out of baseball. It's as if Freddy Sanchez's body let him play just long enough for the Giants to win the 2010 championship before it ultimately gave out.

C Buster Posey. The only player from that Game 5 lineup who's still starting for the Giants.

LF Cody Ross. Cody Ross hit cleanup in Game 5 of the World Series for the Giants just two months after he was cut by the Florida Marlins. That's all you need to know about the 2010 Giants to understand what their deal was. At least Ross is still a useful platoon outfielder today.

3B Juan Uribe. Only played two seasons with the Giants, and hit 24 home runs in 2010. Since leaving the team after that year, he's hit a grand total of eight home runs, with an OBP of .279, and has assumed the mantle of Perhaps The Most Useless Player In Baseball.

1B Aubrey Huff. One of these things is not like the other:
Aubrey Huff in 2009: .241/.310/.384
Aubrey Huff in 2010: .290/.385/.506
Aubrey Huff in 2011: .246/.306/.370
So Aubrey Huff was unabashedly terrible at baseball in 2009 and 2011, but was briefly infused with hitting talent for a random isolated season in 2010. Because why not. Like Freddy Sanchez, Huff is now basically retired from the game.

DH Pat Burrell. Burrell spent all of 2009 and the beginning of 2010 with the Tampa Bay Rays. His stats with that team: .218/.311/.361. That's a .625 OPS. The Giants picked him up in the middle of 2010, and for the rest of the year he hit .266/.364/.509. That's a .872 OPS, which is quite a bit higher than .625. A year later, he retired from baseball.

SS Edgar Renteria. From 2008 through 2010, Edgar Renteria's OPS was a dismal .676. But in Game 5 of the 2010 World Series, Edgar Renteria hit a game-winning three-run homer off of Cliff Lee and was later named World Series MVP. Yep. Like several of his former teammates, Renteria has been out of baseball since 2011.

CF Aaron Rowand. Wasn't a good baseball player in 2010 and he hasn't played baseball since 2011. So basically, a perfect fit to be the center-fielder for this championship team.

It's unlikely we'll ever see something like this happen again. Somehow, a random assembly of on-the-brink veterans, mediocre bench players, and desperate waiver wire pickups happened to end up on the same team at the same time for a very short period of time, and happened to win a championship. Some were awful players who happened to have career seasons (or half-seasons) at the exact right time; others were just awful players who happened to hit game-winning home runs against opposing aces. Only two of them were under the age of 30; only one of them is still starting for the Giants. And most impossibly of all, six of the nine players in that Game 5 starting lineup are now completely out of baseball, less than three years after clinching the World Series. In other words -- a lineup that was good enough to win a baseball championship in 2010 wasn't good enough to play professional baseball in 2013. That doesn't make any sense. And neither do the 2010 San Francisco Giants.

The Sudden and Unexpected Reincarnation of Barry Zito

Not too long ago, Barry Zito was a punchline.

From the moment he signed a seven-year contract worth $126 million to be an "ace" for the San Francisco Giants, he was comically overpaid. His ERA in his first season was 4.53; in his second it was 5.15. Through his first five years with the team, his record was 43-61 with a 4.55 cumulative ERA despite having signed the richest contract for a pitcher in baseball history. In 2010, when the Giants won the World Series, he was left off the postseason roster entirely. In 2011, he only threw 53.2 innings with a 5.87 ERA. He showed up the next season with a revamped delivery to try and revive his career, but ditched it after getting beat up in spring training. He basically looked like a useless player making $18.5 million per season.

Then something kind of bizarre happened. His first 2012 start came against the Colorado Rockies in Coors Field, which should have spelled disaster. But he threw a complete-game, four-hit shutout in a 7-0 Giants victory. After four starts, his ERA was 1.67. On June 3rd, he came within two outs of another complete-game shutout. He finished the season with a 15-8 record (his first winning season with the Giants in six tries) with a respectable 4.15 ERA. His 32 starts were crucial for a team trying to deal with the complete implosion of Tim Lincecum.

Zito's resurgence continued into the playoffs. In the NLCS, the Giants were facing a 3-1 series deficit against the Cardinals. On the brink of elimination, playing on the road against an excellent St. Louis offense, needing three consecutive wins to reach the World Series, the Giants turned to Zito. Comeback season or no comeback season, there was almost no faith in Zito's ability to extend the series. He ended up defying the non-believers, pitching seven-and-two-thirds shutout innings en route to a 5-0 Giants win. San Francisco rode that momentum to complete the comeback and advance to the World Series.

However, the lengthy seven-game series meant that the Giants' best starters were unavailable for Game 1 of the World Series against the Tigers. Zito was left as their best option to face Justin Verlander, the league's most dominant pitcher, in a laughable mismatch. Of course, because this is baseball, Zito gave up just one run in five-and-two-thirds innings against an offense that included Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder, while Verlander was hit hard for five runs in just four innings. The Giants improbably won the game and, of course, the championship. Game 1 also produced perhaps the season's most surreal, impossible moment: with the Giants batting in the bottom of the fourth with two outs and a runner on second, Zito grounded a single through the left side, scoring a run and essentially ending Verlander's night. Zito not only outduelled Verlander on the mound -- he chased him from the game at the plate.

The Zito Ride isn't over just yet. In his first two starts of this season, he's thrown seven innings both times, without allowing a run. His ERA is 0.00. This is a guy who looked finished as a major league pitcher just a year ago. His average fastball velocity last season was second-worst in all of baseball (83.7 mph), just beating out R.A. Dickey (which doesn't even count). In an at-bat against Carlos Beltran last week, he threw five pitches; their velocities were 75, 80, 76, 71, and 84 miles per hour. He struck Beltran out. He's embraced this uniquely slow style of pitching and somehow, he's thriving with it. Just for good measure, he also has three hits, two runs scored, and an RBI in his seven plate appearances.

Since August 7th of last season, Zito has started 16 games, including three in the postseason and two this year. The Giants have won every single one of those 16 games. No pitcher in franchise history has had a streak like this since Carl Hubbell in 1936. This run, and the entire comeback, defies logic. If you were to travel back in time 365 days and tell someone that in a year, Barry Zito would be a more effective pitcher than Tim Lincecum, you would be shot on the spot for heresy. In all likelihood, this impossible resurgence will end soon. Even if it does, the impact it's had on Zito's career narrative cannot be overstated. His existence has always been defined by his onerous, laughable contract; now, finally, there's a positive legacy there, too. Barry Zito might always be a punchline, but the joke isn't as funny anymore.

It's That Time of Year Again

"Did the Oakland Athletics win the World Series? No? Aha, 'Moneyball' has failed yet again!"

Some people actually think like this, including a national columnist for CBS Sports named Danny Knobler, who gave a recent article this gem of a title: "Whether the Giants or Tigers win, Moneyball loses" (this was a few days ago, when the World Series was still in doubt). Click here for a link, if you have sadistic tendencies and wish to read the whole thing (I've just taken relevant excerpts). It goes on to say:

"Two games in, we don't yet have a winner of this World Series, but we already have a loser. It's not the Tigers (yet, anyway). It's Moneyball. If the Giants continue this fun run they're on, Moneyball loses, because if there's one team in the game that's more old school and less Moneyball than anyone else, it's the Giants. Unless it's the Tigers. If the Tigers become the first team since the 1996 Yankees to overcome a two games to none deficit (since then, eight teams have tried but failed), then Moneyball loses, too. And don't think some defenders of old-school scouting aren't watching and celebrating."

There are so very many things wrong with these statements, the most fundamental of which is drawing any kind of meaningful conclusions from the World Series participants. What if the A's make the World Series next year? Would that instantly validate 'Moneyball' strategies as the only way to build a baseball team? No! The playoffs are unequivocally, preposterously random. The Giants wouldn't have gotten to the Series without winning six straight elimination games, four of which were on the road. One loss in those six games and they never make it. The Tigers wouldn't have gotten there without playing in a god-awful division; they didn't even have one of the 10 best records in baseball. If you want to draw conclusions about "right" or "wrong" ways to build baseball teams, use the larger sample size of regular season results. Saying that 'Moneyball' doesn't work because "anti-Moneyball" teams got to the World Series in one random year is like saying that Duke and UConn are bad basketball programs because they lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last year.

Now, we get to the really juicy stuff:

"For almost a decade now, ever since the Michael Lewis book that sold plenty of copies and sold plenty of fans on the idea that the A's won games because of a better use of computers, the old school/new school debate has been baseball's hottest."

Is that the worst sentence ever written? I mean...it's certainly up there, right? If you read/saw Moneyball and came away from that book/movie and thought it was about "how the A's won games because of a better use of computers"...man, I don't even know.

For the rest of this article, Knobler operates under the premise that Moneyball was about a baseball team eschewing old-school scouts in favor of computers and advanced statistics. In a micro sense, that's true. But really, that premise is wrong. The Moneyball philosophy was about a low-payroll team trying to find market inefficiencies in order to field a competitive roster. At the time, Beane's scouts were overvaluing certain attributes (speed, defense, bunting) and undervaluing others ("bad-body" athletes, on-base skills, advanced statistics). Beane responded accordingly. As markets shifted to compensate, those inefficiencies changed over time. The landscape is completely different today! Billy Beane's team in 2012 was built on speed and defense, skills he might have scoffed at a decade ago! But writers like Knobler can't seem to understand that Beane and other progressive front offices aren't ideologically wedded to stuff like sabermetrics and on-base percentage. Those were tools used in the execution of a broader strategy, NOT the strategy itself. The tools have changed. Why am I wasting my time.

"The divide within the game never was as great as it was portrayed. The A's and other 'Moneyball teams' rely on scouting (without it, the A's never sign Yoenis Cespedes). The Tigers and Giants and other 'old-school' teams hire smart young guys who can analyze the numbers coming out of their computers."

Yes! Exactly! This is reasonable! Every front office uses a variety of different methods, ranging all across the "Baseball Ideas" spectrum. Because it would be silly not to use as many strategies to gather as much information as possible. Why does the rest of this article exist, then?

"But if it's not black and white, there are quite a few variations of gray, with the Tigers and Giants at one end of the scale and Moneyball as a concept at the other."

Knobler: "So the divide within the game was exaggerated, a balance of ideas exists, and it's not black-and-white." [realizes he now has nothing more to say and his article is effectively over] "Oh no wait, it's actually very polarizing, and let me explain why..."

"While the Tigers front office uses statistics as part of the evaluation process, 'it's not going to make the decision for us,' Dombrowski said. 'For some teams, it does.'

Giants general manager Brian Sabean said the same thing. The Giants front office wants all the information it can get, but would never make or reject a possible deal simply because of something they saw in the numbers."

There's two ways of looking at these comments.
1. Who in the heck bases their decision-making solely on numbers?
2. Who in the heck never uses numbers in their decision-making?

There obviously has to be a balance between statistics and scouting in front offices, a balance that Knobler has already admitted exists, yet ignores. Suggesting that executives in 'Moneyball' front offices are robots who pour data into Excel spreadsheets and make their decisions based on the numbers their computers spit out is preposterous. It's a straw man argument. I'm surprised that Dombrowski is playing along with this crap. Then again, this is the same guy who decided it would be a great idea if he could get Delmon Young to be his DH and hit in the 5-hole.

"Most decisions both these teams make come out of a strong belief about a player by one scout or another.

'You can't eliminate the human element of the game,' said Scott Reid, who has long been in charge of Dombrowski's pro scouting staff."

Because if it were up to Billy Beane, baseball wouldn't have a human element. It wouldn't even be a human game. Ideally, it wouldn't be "played" so much as "simulated" between opposing computer programs that could reduce the entire season to 0.074 seconds, with the "winner" receiving some terse congratulatory handshakes before retiring to his mother's basement for the winter.

"Scott Reid has worked with Dombrowski for 20 years. Dick Tidrow has been with Sabean for nearly that long, and Paul Turco has been with him even longer. They're exactly the type of guys who were most offended by the portrayal of scouts in Moneyball."

That's so weird, because Hollywood is usually so good about portraying real-life people and events with stunning accuracy.

"They're exactly the type of guys who are most satisfied to see a 2012 World Series involving two teams that lean the other way. 'We've always tried to stay up with the times,' Reid said. 'The sabermetric stuff has been great for the game. It's great for the fans. But it's information based on past performance. It does sometimes verify what your eyes and your scouting people are seeing.'

Ohmygod ohmygod ohmygod. "Sabermetric stuff"--or, "numbers," to the rest of us nerds--DOES verify what your eyes are seeing. That's what numbers do. That's why they exist. To quantify and record what our eyes see, because our minds can't remember every single data point. Eyewitness testimony absolutely has its uses. It's also unreliable because its subject to the whims and biases and other shortcomings of the brain. Numbers attempt to remove that human flaw and just record facts. But apparently they're worthless because all they're based on is "past performance." What good could they possibly do?!

"But when there are conflicts, the Tigers and Giants are more likely to trust their eyes and their scouts.

This year, the eyes are winning."

No, my eyes lost. They had to read this garbage.

3 Keys to the World Series

1. Barry Zito's Left Arm
Here's a misleading statement: Game 1 of the World Series will be a matchup of two former Cy Young winners. One of them is Justin Verlander, but the other is Barry Zito. Barry Zito, Game 1 starter for the San Francisco Giants in the World Series. This guy didn't even make the Giants' playoff roster when the Giants won it all two years ago. Zito's fastball is slower than the majority of Justin Verlander's pitches, and that isn't hyperbole. His fastball averaged 83.7 miles per hour this year, the slowest in baseball except for R.A. Dickey, who throws knuckleballs for a living. Verlander's changeup averaged 86.7 mph and his slider averaged 84.6 mph. Barry Zito isn't very good at pitching.

The cool thing about baseball is that Barry Zito might still beat Justin Verlander despite everything we know about these two pitchers. Imagine this actually happened. People would still claim that you can predict this sport! They would look very silly!

Fun Fact About Barry Zito: He made only made $1 million less than Justin Verlander in 2012. That wasn't a clerical error!

A Second, Almost-As-Fun Fact About Barry Zito: Take a gander at this post-Game 7 celebration photo:

That sleazy, hairy man with an 84-mph "fastball" on the far right? Barry Zito. Immediately to his left? Barry Zito's wife. What's up with that?

2. Delmon Young's "Glove"
Games 1 and 2 of the World Series will be played in San Francisco (because, if you remember, Melky Cabrera's testosterone helped win the All-Star Game), as well as potential Games 6 and 7. In the Giants' National League park, there won't be a DH, leaving ALCS MVP Delmon Young with nowhere to play. Because Tigers manager Jim Leyland has some kind of obsession with Young, he'll probably stick him in left field, which--and I can't stress this enough--would be a good thing for an audience searching for comic relief, but a bad thing for the Tigers' chances of winning baseball games. Left field at AT&T Park is very spacious. Among players who had at least 220 innings in left field (Young had 226, presumably as part of some cruel social experiment), Delmon Young was the worst defender of them all. Worse than well-known corpses like Bobby Abreu and Raul Ibanez and Jason Bay. A visual representation of Young's defensive skills:

You'd better hit like Barry Bonds if you field fly balls like that. Unfortunately, Delmon Young is the closest thing to the opposite of Barry Bonds. He walked 20 times all year. ALL YEAR. Barry Bonds was intentionally walked more than 20 times in 15 different seasons. Young swung the bat a greater percentage of the time than any other player in baseball (More than Josh Hamilton! Almost 60% of the time!). Only Alexei Ramirez had a lower walk rate than Young. Etc etc.

The point is: regardless of the fact that the Yankees couldn't get him out, Delmon Young is a bad hitter, and certainly isn't worth taking a massive defensive penalty in left field for a few games. The Tigers have a number of solid outfield options, including Andy Dirks and Quintin Berry and Avisail Garcia. Any of them would be a better World Series left fielder than Delmon. We're going to see Delmon out there anyway. So strap in.

Fun Fact About Delmon Young: He's walked 145 times in his six-plus-year career. Barry Bonds once walked 232 times in a single season.

3. Buster Posey's Bat

Buster Posey is probably going to win the National League MVP award, even though he looks like a 12-year-old in a Giants jersey who happened to wander into the Giants dugout while his parents were buying him a Pepsi:

Despite being his team's best hitter, Posey actually hasn't done much in the postseason so far. He has eight hits in 12 postseason games, and didn't have an extra-base hit against the Cardinals in the NLCS. He's a crucial lineup cog for the Giants. In front of him, Angel Pagan, Marco Scutaro, and Pablo Sandoval have been wreaking havoc, so he'll have plenty of chances to hit with runners on base. If he doesn't come through in those situations, he's followed in the lineup by Hunter Pence, who has shown no ability to knock runners in (except apparently when a pitch breaks his bat, hits the shards three times, and squirts away from the shortstop into the outfield). The Giants are leaning heavily on Barry Zito, so obviously they'll need to score some runs. Posey needs to be a huge part of that.

Fun Fact About Buster Posey: He's the only player currently in the Giants' starting lineup who also started for the team in the 2010 World Series. That 2010 lineup: Andres Torres, Freddy Sanchez, Posey, Pat Burrell, Cody Ross, Aubrey Huff, Juan Uribe, Edgar Renteria. It's amazing that the Giants have completely turned over every offensive position except catcher since 2010, yet they're back in the World Series.

So, Who Wins?

Head says Tigers, heart says Giants. The Tigers have a more powerful lineup and a better rotation that's rested and ready to go, but they also have the onus of Delmon Young. The Giants have the better bullpen, defense, and more speed, but the onus of Barry Zito. I'll pick the Tigers to win in six. But the team with Buster, The Freak, The Panda, SCU-TA-RO, Vogelsong, and the Enigma Known As Barry Zito is just a lot more fun.

How They Did It: The 2012 San Francisco Giants

On August 15, the San Francisco Giants' All-Star outfielder Melky Cabrera was suspended for the remainder of the season for violating MLB's drug policy. At the time, the Giants were tied with the Dodgers atop the NL West. This stunning news, coupled with LA's soon-to-be-consummated deal with Boston to acquire Adrian Gonzalez, made most onlookers wonder whether or not the Giants would make the playoffs, let alone with the division. And what ended up happening? A few days ago, the Giants clinched the NL West title, outpacing their competition by 10 games since the Melky suspension. But how?

1. Healthy Starting Pitching: This is a common thread for the NL playoff teams. Like the Reds and Nationals, the Giants have survived the season without a major pitching injury besides closer Brian Wilson. A pair of aces led the way (Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner) followed by two dependable mid-rotation arms (Ryan Vogelsong and the immortal Barry Zito). Shockingly, Tim Lincecum was the weak link in the group; he posted the worst ERA (5.15) of any qualified starter in the league. At least he stayed healthy.

2. A Clutch Offense Catered To AT&T Park: The Giants' home ballpark is huge. It's very hard to hit home runs there. So instead of packing the lineup with all-or-nothing power hitters, the Giants rely on batting average, speed, and simply putting the ball in play. The result? The fewest home runs in baseball, but the second-most hits with runners in scoring position as well as the most sacrifice flies. Before his suspension, Melky Cabrera was hitting a league-leading .346; Buster Posey is hitting over .330; Marco Scutaro's average with the Giants after his midseason trade is up to over .360. And five Giants have double-digit steals. Despite the power outage and Cabrera's absence, San Francisco is still the sixth-best scoring offense in the National League thanks to sustained rallies, speedy baseruners, and sacrifice hits.

3. A Dominant Bullpen: Another similarity with the Reds and Nationals. The Giants losing closer Brian Wilson for the season was supposed to cripple their bullpen. Instead, others have stepped up. Sergio Romo (1.82 ERA) and Santiago Casilla (2.74 ERA) have replaced Wilson effectively and the 'pen also features a trio of lefties with sub-3.00 ERAs.

4. Buster Posey: The Reds and Nationals relied heavily on their offensive centerpieces, but not nearly as much as the Giants have depended on Buster Posey. Not only did he manage an excellent pitching staff as the catcher; Posey is hitting nearly .340, getting on base over 40% of the time, and has smashed 23 home runs. He's hitting .389 in the second half of the season. He's probably going to win the NL MVP award. He deserves it.

5. Winning Trades: The Giants didn't turn to expensive free agnents to upgrade their team. Instead, they found surplus value on the trade market. They traded for two starting outfielders before the season, Angel Pagan and Melky Cabrera. During the summer, they brought in Hunter Pence at right field, Marco Scutaro at shortstop, and Jose Mijares in the bullpen. They haven't missed anything they've given up, either.

The Giants were criticized this offseason for failing to spend money on a team one year removed from a World Series title. They just stuck to the two things they do best: developing pitching from within and revitalizing the careers of washed-up veterans. The formula worked like a charm in their championship season of 2010, when a rotation of four homegrown starters and a lineup of veteran cast-offs (Aubrey Huff, Edgar Renteria, Juan Uribe, Cody Ross, Pat Burrell...) won it all. And it worked again in 2012.

The Giants have one of the best righty-lefty combinations at the top of their starting rotation, both of whom came up through the farm system. Matt Cain notched yet another 200+ inning season, and his ERA is under 3.00. Madison Bumgarner is only 23, but he too threw over 200 innings, with an ERA of just 3.37. His strikeout-to-walk rate is even better than Cain's. San Francisco drafted them, developed them, and have signed both to long-term contracts.

But what truly defines San Francisco's roster construction is their uncanny ability to pick up terrible veterans no one wants, get ridiculed for doing so, and then turn those players into useful contributors again. The best example is Ryan Vogelsong. Vogelsong was a career journeyman who had never experienced even remote success in the big leagues before coming to San Francisco last year. Since then, he's thrown 364.1 innings with an ERA of 3.09. Angel Pagan suffered a down year for the Mets, so the Giants traded for him; he's hitting .287, has stolen 29 bases, and leads the league in triples. Marco Scutaro was hitting .271 in 95 games with the Colorado Rockies when the Giants traded for him and with his new team, Scutaro has hit .360 and knocked in 41 runs. It's fairly remarkable that while the rest of baseball has put such an emphasis on getting younger, the Giants keep getting by with cheap, older guys. It's hard to argue with a strategy that has won the franchise two NL West titles and a World Series in the past three years.

San Francisco's Formula: Healthy starting pitching, dominant bullpen, and a lineup built for home-field advantage achieved through strong pitching development and the revitalization of declining veterans' careers.

Washington's Formula: Healthy and elite starting pitching, dominant bullpen, and balanced lineup achieved through homegrown talent and superb talent evaluation.

Cincinnati's Formula: Healthy starting pitching, dominant bullpen, and balanced lineup achieved through homegrown talent and low payroll.

Some Things Re: Melky Cabrera's Suspension

In a shocking and disappointing development, MLB's hits leader and All-Star Game MVP Melky Cabrera was slapped with a 50-game suspension for testing positive for a performance-enhancing drug. A heftier version of Cabrera was cut by the Atlanta Braves less than two years ago, but the slimmer model was enjoying a career year in 2012 by hitting .346 with a .516 slugging percentage for the San Francisco Giants.

It's tempting to write off most of Cabrera's newfound stardom as artificial, thanks to the drugs. Prominent baseball writer Jon "Actually Has a Hall of Fame Vote" Heyman has no trouble doing so, in an article for CBS Sports.com entitled "Melky was having a great season, until the day we found out it was all one big fraud." A quick excerpt:

"Maybe Melky's numbers are nothing but a mirage, anyway.

Maybe he really isn't a .346 hitter on a level playing field. Maybe he doesn't have 11 home runs playing home games in a big ballpark, or 60 RBI. Or even 13 stolen bases.

Maybe he doesn't have anywhere near those numbers without the extra help.

Maybe Melky isn't the All-Star Game MVP without the artificial boost. Maybe he doesn't even get to the All-Star Game.

Maybe he is just another guy on a level playing field. Maybe he's the guy who was the flabby, below average player he was in Atlanta. Or maybe's just the decent but clutch guy he was with the Yankees.

Maybe Melky has regrets about the drugs. But maybe he doesn't. We'll never know for sure, because who'd believe him, anyway?

Maybe Melky knew he needed the lift to become the player he appeared to be. If that's the case, maybe Melky understood the risk, took his shot and enjoyed several moments in the sun, including one in Kansas City that's eminently regrettable to all those who witnessed it now.

His career turnaround seemed too good to be true. And so it was."

It's so easy to write stuff like this. It's so easy to use the positive drug test to explain away Melky's seemingly-out-of-nowhere dominance that rational people couldn't explain. But it's lazy. It makes it seem like all "too good to be true" career turnarounds--like, say, Josh Hamilton a few years ago, or A.J. Burnett now--are drug-fueled, because they couldn't possibly happen otherwise. Melky couldn't possibly have anything to do with his own success story. He can't possibly be talented enough or dedicated enough to turn his career around on his own accord. IT WAS ALL THE DRUGS GUYS, DON'T WORRY WE FIGURED IT OUT.

This is in no way to defend what Melky Cabrera did. He admitted to using a banned substance and earned every game of his suspension. What's bothersome is the assumption that players once thought of as "bad" or "lazy" or "fat" who go on to have big years are automatically on steroids. Check this out:

Melky Cabrera's OPS, 2006-2010: .709
Melky Cabrera's OPS, 2011-2012: .849
Percent Increase: 20%

Mystery Player's OPS, 2006-2010: .808
Mystery Player's OPS, 2011-2012: 1.009
Percent Increase: 20%

That mystery player experienced a very similar career turnaround over the same time frame. That player finished second in the MVP vote last year. That player is Matt Kemp.

Not to suggest that Kemp used drugs, too. This just shows that it's possible for someone to experience a Melky-like renaissance without artificial help. It doesn't have to be "too good to be true."

That's Part One of the Melky Debate. Part Two involves which of Cabrera's statistical improvements, exactly, can be attributed to performance-enhancing drugs. Like, sure, he's hitting .346, which is far above his career average of .284, and his slugging percentage is 100 points higher than his career average. But specifically, what is fueling those increases?

It's pretty clear: luck. Cabrera's batting average on balls in play (a statistic notoriously dependent on random chance) is inflated at .379, above his career average of .309. Almost every other one of Melky's statistical indicators have held steady compared to his career norms. He's striking out in 12.6% of his appearances and walking in 7.2% of them; his career numbers in those categories are 12.1% and 7.1%, respectively. His line-drive percentage is 21.8% (career: 19.7%). His groundballs are only slightly up and his fly balls are only slightly down, which probably explains his higher batting average and batting average on balls in play. The sole significant statistical difference is the percentage of his fly balls that become home runs. His career number is 7.3% but that's up to 10.7% this season. It could be argued that the testosterone gave him the extra "oomph" to put a few more fly balls into the bleachers, which would throw some suspicion on his power numbers. Yet even then, his 11 homers don't seem out of place; he hit 18 last year, and had 13 in 2009.

Cabrera is pretty much the same player he's always been. He's simply in shape, running faster, and apparently making a conscious effort to hit the ball on the ground more. All of those things, plus a little luck, have combined to pump up his average to a career high .346. Yeah, the testosterone might have helped rebuild his body and/or inflate his performance. It's just impossible to pinpoint where, or by how much. That fact makes Heyman's bold-faced, character-assassinating accusations impossible to prove. So why make them in the first place?

Call Melky Cabrera a cheater if you so desire. He cheated. And it's a bummer. But don't call him a mirage or a hoax. The numbers don't lie: he's still the same old Melky.

Something I Actually Heard Someone Say on Live TV

"Where would the Giants be without Barry Zito?"

Seriously?

Some Facts Re: Ryan Theriot

Hitting second for the Giants on Thursday night: Ryan Theriot, Scrappy Middle Infielder.

Number of times Ryan Theriot has hit second for the Giants this year: 55.

What you look for in a player that hits second: a good on-base percentage.

Ryan Theriot's on-base percentage this year: .318, which is not very good.

Ryan Theriot's on-base percentage in 2010: .321, which is also not very good.

Ryan Theriot's on-base percentage in 2009: .321, see above.

Number of Giants players in Thursday's lineup with a higher 2012 on-base percentage than Ryan Theriot: five.

Number of said Giants players hitting behind Ryan Theriot in Thursday's lineup: four.

A random sampling of some Giants players hitting behind Ryan Theriot in Thursday's lineup: Cabrera, Melky; Posey, Buster; Pence, Hunter.

How good those players are: better than Ryan Theriot.

How much better: a lot better.

-----------------------------------------

Brandon Belt's 2012 on-base percentage: .340.

Brandon Belt's status with the Giants: not an everyday player.

Where Brandon Belt hits in the lineup, when Brandon Belt is in the lineup: likely 6th or 7th.

Who keeps Brandon Belt from hitting higher in the lineup: likely Ryan Theriot.

How much sense this makes: none.

-----------------------------------------

The Giants' playoff hopes: very real.

Potential explanations for Ryan Theriot hitting second for a team in the playoff chase: N/A

What is going through Giants manager Bruce Bochy's mind when he fills out his lineup card with Ryan Theriot hiting second: who can possibly say.

Giants in the Outfield

In 2011, the San Francisco Giants missed the playoffs in part because of dismal offensive production from their outfielders. Their most valuable one was Andres Torres, who actually hit .221 and "slugged" .330. Their third-most valuable one was Carlos Beltran, and he only played a quarter of the season in San Francisco. Pat Burrell and Aaron Rowand combined for 570 plate appearances, and neither is playing professional baseball this year. That was a bad, bad outfield.

Over the offseason, general manager Brian Sabean addressed this glaring weakness by acquiring three new outfielders, none of whom were very sexy pickups at the time. Those three players, and their current 2012 batting statistics:

1. Melky Cabrera: .363/.402/.534, 5 HRs, 8 steals, 2.6 WAR
2. Angel Pagan: .314/.354/.459, 5 HRs, 12 steals, 1.4 WAR
3. Gregor Blanco: .274/.372/.445, 4 HRs, 8 steals, 2.0 WAR, 1 perfect-game-saving catch

Giants outfielders have produced a total of 6.3 Wins Above Replacement so far in 2012, making them the 5th-most valuable outfield unit in baseball. They contributed just 7.9 WAR all of last season. That improvement is a huge reason why the team is 37-28 and in 2nd place in the NL West. So what assets did Brian Sabean give up to acquire his shiny new outfield? The following entities, accompanied by their 2012 stats:

1. Jonathan Sanchez: 5.93 ERA for the Royals
2. Andres Torres: .221 batting average for the Mets
3. Ramon Ramirez: 4.78 ERA for the Mets
4. A Small Amount of Cash

In other words: nothing.

Meanwhile, the LA Dodgers have a right fielder named Andre Ethier, who owns a career line of .291/.363/.481 and has accumulated 2.3 WAR this season. He hits for more power than the Giants' outfield trio, but offers much less speed and isn't very good defensively. In other words, he's roughly comparable to Cabrera, Pagan, and Blanco (at least this year). But the Dodgers just invested $85 million into a five-year extension for Ethier, spanning his age 31-35 seasons.

So the question is: if the Giants can give up three terrible players and a small amount of cash to get three solid outfielders who can each do a pretty convincing Andre Ethier impression.....then why oh why did the Dodgers feel compelled to spend 85 million dollars on the real Andre Ethier??

This "Zito" Kid Looks Like the Real Deal!

Carl Steward of the San Francisco Chronicle wrote an article about Giants pitcher Barry Zito's good start to the 2012 season (he's 1-0 with a 1.67 ERA in four starts):

"Barry Zito has forged two important unions in the past year that have served to change the direction of his life and perhaps his baseball career as well.

One was off the field when he married 25-year-old actress Amber Seyer in December, ending his long run as one of the game's most eligible bachelors.

The other was when the Giants pitcher met Hector Sanchez last summer and initiated a working relationship that has evolved into the 22-year-old catcher becoming Zito's full-time batterymate."

Lovely. But one of the few things that a new mate (life- or battery-) notoriously can't do is pump velocity back into an 84-mph fastball. This is Barry Zito we're talking about. Barry Zito is a known quantity. Barry Zito: 33 years old. Barry Zito: a below-league-average starting pitcher for four of his five seasons in San Francisco. Barry Zito: also got off to a hot start in 2010 (1.49 ERA after six starts), only to be left off the Giants' postseason roster come October. Barry Zito: still Barry Zito.

"Coincidentally or not, Zito is off to one of the best starts of a 13-year career that has been mostly downhill since he came to the Giants in 2007. His first four starts have produced a 1.67 ERA, and opposing hitters have a .186 batting average. He is 1-0, having pitched a shutout against the Rockies in Colorado.

In short, Zito has become an advertisement for marital bliss."

This is how those four sentences should read:

Coincidentally or not, Zito is off to one of the best starts of a 13-year career that has been mostly downhill a train wreck since he came to the Giants in 2007. His first four starts have produced a 1.67 ERA, and opposing hitters have a .186 batting average are meaningless in the grand scale of things, given how microscopic a 27-inning sample size is. He is 1-0, having pitched a shutout against the Rockies in Colorado Wins are meaningless.

In short, Zito has become an advertisement for marital bliss the inherent foolishness in investing $126 million in a pitcher who isn't very good.

Much better.

MLB Season Preview: San Francisco Giants

The Giants have the most imbalanced roster in baseball: superb pitching backed by an inept offense.

You Know Your Offense Sucks When:
your best hitter is nicknamed 'Kung Fu Panda.'

Offense: Two-thirds of the Giants' starting lineup will be nearly useless at the plate. In the outfield, Aubrey Huff and Angel Pagan each failed to OPS above .700 last season. With Freddy Sanchez hurt again, the middle infielders--Brandon Crawford, Emmanuel Burriss, and Ryan Theriot--are dismal. Huff, Pagan, Crawford, Burriss, and Theriot are all below league average offensively, meaning that five Jason Bays would score more runs than that quintet. The only measure taken by the front office to improve the offense was bringing in Melky Cabrera, who should be the team's third-best offensive player (that says something). Fortunately, the Giants have Pablo Sandoval at third and a healthy Buster Posey. Posey will get the occasional start at first base to stay fresh; when he's not there, a platoon of Brett Pill and Brandon Belt will be.

No team in baseball has a pair of 27-year-old aces
that can match the Matt Cain-Tim Lincecum duo.

Pitching: The Giants have failed in their pursuit of hitters, but the organization excels at developing pitching. Tim Lincecum's peripherals are very strong in the early goings even as he's suffered through a rough few starts and a consistent drop in velocity. The ace of the staff could actually be Matt Cain now. The Giants gave Cain the biggest contract for a right-handed pitcher since Kevin Brown and he's earned it as one of the game's most consistent and durable arms. The two aces may soon be joined by a third one, left-hander Madison Bumgarner, who recently got his own extension after pitching to a 3.21 ERA as a 21-year-old in 2011. Last season's unlikely star Ryan Vogelsong is the fourth starter, and the crippling contract of Barry Zito rounds out the rotation. The bullpen lost Brian Wilson for the season, but this unit might not even miss a beat. Sergio Romo, the likely new closer, was actually better than Wilson last year, and he's helped by other elite arms like Javier Lopez, Santiago Casilla, and Jeremy Affeldt. The Giants will have no problems preventing runs. Scoring them is the problem.

Brandon Belt is a good young hitter,
so naturally the Giants hate him.

Breakout Candidates: The Giants have steadfastly refused to give Brandon Belt a real chance at securing regular at-bats. Belt has done nothing but rake against minor league pitching for the last two years. He has the chance to develop into an impact bat for a franchise in sore need of offense. But stubborn manager Bruce Bochy usually keeps Belt on the bench, especially against lefties. So the real breakout candidate is Madison Bumgarner, who would've been a Cy Young candidate last year had it not been for a dismal April. He'll be one of the NL's best pitchers if he stays consistent all season.

3 Key Questions: What kind of hitter will post-injury Buster Posey be? Does Belt get a chance to play everyday? And should the Giants be worried about Lincecum's velocity?

Best Case Scenario: Posey stays healthy and productive, Belt wins the first base job, the pitching staff leads the majors in ERA, and the Giants win another championship after a midseason trade for a bat.

Worst Case Scenario: Posey struggles, Lincecum falls off a cliff, Vogelsong's 2011 proves to be a fluke, Belt offers nothing, and a limp offense can't get the Giants out of fourth place.

Predicted Finish: The Giants are like a watered-down version of the Phillies. And though they play in the NL West, they still have to contend with formidable divisional foes. The talented D'backs and the scorching Dodgers should keep San Francisco in third place.

Stop Talking Up the Tigers, And Other Tidbits

• There's something about the Detroit Tigers that has everyone all in a tizzy. They're ranked #1 in the Power Rankings for ESPN.com, FoxSports.com, and CBSSports.com. That last website has accompanied Detrot's ranking with this bit of sickening hyperbole:
  
  1. Tigers. Evidently the Doug Fister injury was just to give everyone else a chance to stay close.
  
  The Tigers do have the best chance of making the postseason out of all 30 teams, given their weak division. However, they are not the best team in baseball. They have three legitimate stars that cloud everyone's judgment: Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera, and Prince Fielder. But for the Tigers to win 96 games last season, they needed remarkably good health (outside of Brennan Boesch) and career seasons (or half-seasons) from Verlander, Cabrera, Victor Martinez (now out for months), Jhonny Peralta, Alex Avila, Delmon Young, Doug Fister, and Jose Valverde.
  
  Every single one of those players (except, well, Cabrera) will experience natural regression to the mean this season (and Martinez will regress all the way to zero, considering he may not suit up until the playoffs). Also, most of the Tigers' rivals in the AL Central will be stronger in 2012 than they were in 2011. Prince Fielder and full seasons from Fister and Young can't possibly make up this gap by themselves. So the question is: can the Tigers make up for the expected regression through improvement in other areas?
  
  That means: if you think the Tigers are the best team in baseball, you are betting on Austin Jackson, Brennan Boesch, Ryan Raburn, Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello, and Drew Smyly. I'm not ready to do that.
  
  If I were ranking the best teams in baseball, the Tigers would likely come in sixth, after the Rangers, Yankees, Rays, Cardinals, and Angels. They're comparable, I think, to the Red Sox and Diamondbacks. Good teams, but not among the best in baseball, like everyone seems to think.
  
  In the words of Charles Barkley: I may be wrong, but I doubt it.
  
  
• While everyone's been fawning over the Tigers, the most impressive team for me has been the Cardinals, and it's not particularly close. Gone are Pujols and LaRussa; Chris Carpenter is out indefinitely; and Adam Wainwright is coming off Tommy John surgery. None of it has mattered in their 5-2 start. Their offensive stars so far:
  
  David Freese: .429/.448/.750, 3 HR, 10 RBIs
  Lance Berkman: .375/.565/.625, 6 BBs
  Carlos Beltran: .320/.393/.680, 3 HR
  Rafael Furcal: .407/.467/.593
  Yadier Molina: .304/.385/.739
  
  Freese looks like a star. Beltran looks like a steal. The Cardinals have the best offense in the National League, and the starting pitching has been impressive even without Carpenter. They look like the favorites in a muddled National League.

• What are the Reds doing with Aroldis Chapman? They're clearly in win-now mode given the Votto and Phillips extensions, but the highest-ceiling pitcher on the roster is wasting away in middle relief. He seemed to put his command issues behind him during an outstanding spring, yet he was still bumped to the bullpen in favor of the relic formerly known as Bronson Arroyo. He struck out five Cardinals in two scoreless innings on Wednesday. When will he get another chance at starting? There's no in-between for Dusty Baker: either he's pushing Mark Prior to 130 pitches per start, or he's limiting Aroldis Chapman to five innings a week out of the pen.

• The team with the worst ERA in the National League? The Giants. Even after Barry Freaking Zito threw a complete-game shutout against the Rockies at Coors Field. The main culprit here is Tim Lincecum, who has been brutally shelled early on. His fastball has averaged under 91 mph, and he hasn't located it well, either. Given how miserable San Francisco's offense is (gotta love that Emmanuel Burriss/Brandon Crawford double-play combo), there's no way the Giants make the playoffs without Lincecum at his best.

• Johnny Damon signed with the Cleveland Indians, and his contract allows him to opt out on a specified date after Grady Sizemore returns. If he wasn't already perceived as a mercenary looking to bolster his Cooperstown chances with a few extra hits, he must be now.