Andy Pettitte: The New Jack Morris

2014 will be the fifteenth and final time Jack Morris will be eligible for the Hall of Fame; Andy Pettitte won't even make his first appearance on the ballot until 2019. But despite the time lapse between their careers, they have remarkably similar Cooperstown candidacies. Both pitched for a long time; both had the good fortune of pitching for good teams; and both have essentially two statistics working in their favor:

1. Wins.
2. Playoff wins.

Morris had the most wins in baseball between 1980 and 1989; Pettitte had the most between 2000 and 2009. Both pitched in high-profile playoff games and won multiple championships. Both won more than 250 career games (but not 300) and both struck out more than 2,400 hitters (but not 3,000). Given the parallels, Morris could serve as a something of a trial balloon for Pettitte's Hall of Fame chances. And because Morris accumulated 67.7% of the vote last year (tantalizingly close to the required 75% mark with one more year of balloting to come), Pettitte's odds might be better than you think.

On top of that, it isn't hard to argue that Pettitte was simply better than Morris. Their career ERAs are almost identical, but Pettitte pitched in a significantly tougher environment, which is why his WAR and ERA+ are both significantly better than Morris'. He also has about the same number of wins and strikeouts as Morris despite 500 fewer innings. As for the postseason: their ERAs are again virtually identical, but Pettitte has a huge lead in innings (276.2 to 92.1). If Morris is on the cusp of induction, and Pettitte was just a better version of Morris, then Pettitte would appear to be on a surefire Hall of Fame trajectory.

That's not how it works, though. This is a perfect example of how letting Jack Morris into the Hall would lower the institution's standards to open the floodgates for good-but-not-great pitchers. Pettitte, like Morris, was one of those good-but-not-great pitchers.

Pettitte will retire with 18 seasons under his belt. Six of those seasons were significantly better than the other twelve. Six times, he had an ERA+ of 129 or better, which is very good. But in his other twelve seasons, his ERA+ was never better than 112. For some perspective, Adam Wainwright's career ERA+ is 129, and Frank Viola's career ERA+ is 112. For a third of his career, Andy Pettitte was Adam Wainwright -- a Cy Young contender. For the other two-thirds, though, he was just Frank Viola -- decent, above average. That shouldn't strike anyone as an obvious Hall of Fame career.

There's another big problem. Of Pettitte's six great seasons, only three were complete and healthy. In 2002, 2010, and 2012, his performance was elite, but he failed to reach even 140 innings in any of them. So, he actually had just three seasons (1996, 1997, 2005) in which he was a Cy Young-caliber pitcher for at least 220 innings. That's simply not enough.

It's not surprising, then, that Pettitte had only three seasons in which he accumulated at least 4 Wins Above Replacement (that's more or less the threshold for an All-Star pitcher). Those three seasons were, again, 1996, 1997, and 2005. To repeat: that's not enough. By comparison, Kevin Brown (who never even sniffed the Hall of Fame) had nine seasons with at least 4 WAR. Mike Mussina had twelve. Pettitte: three. Not enough.

And remember that stat about him having the most wins in baseball between 2000 and 2009? He also had the 50th-best ERA during that span among qualified pitchers, worse than Al Leiter and Mark Buehrle and A.J. Burnett. So, take that with a giant grain of salt.

Then, we come to all the starting pitchers who rank ahead of Pettitte (in terms of Hall of Fame worthiness) from his era. And there's a fairly long line. In no particular order: Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Pedro Martinez, Curt Schilling, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, Mike Mussina, and Roy Halladay. It's clear, to me at least, that Pettitte trails those nine by a margin that's wide enough to justify keeping him off of that Hall of Fame tier. In fact, you could even make a not-crazy argument that he ranks behind the likes of Kevin Brown and David Cone, too. Regardless -- he's far closer to Brown and Cone than he is to Mussina or Glavine.

There is certainly something to be said for his accomplishments in the playoffs. Nobody in baseball history has made more starts, pitched more innings, or won more games in the playoffs than Andy Pettitte. His 3.81 ERA in 276.2 postseason innings is his most impressive career achievement. Maybe if he had done a little more in the regular season, his October records could've served as a tie-breaker to push him over the top. As it stands, his regular season career -- three elite years, three elite-but-incomplete years, and twelve decent years -- doesn't cut it.

Basically, the only way Pettitte can be considered a Hall of Famer is if you place seriously heavy weight on postseason performance, which is something the Hall of Fame voters have virtually never done (at least until they needed to find an excuse to vote for Jack Morris, that is). As for what will actually happen? There are two fascinating variables in play: whether or not Morris gets in this year (he could be a crucial bar-setting precedent), and how the voters will treat Pettitte's dalliance with human growth hormone. Either way, it's important to remember (just as it is with Morris) that there's no need to pretend like Pettitte needs a plaque in Cooperstown or else his career won't be validated. He retires as a five-time World Series champion, the franchise leader in strikeouts for the New York Yankees, and the most prolific postseason pitcher in baseball history. Good stuff.

The Cult of Jack Morris

"I think Jack Morris is one candidate where you just got to overlook the statistics."
-Bill Madden, Hall of Fame voter

"I know the stats zealots don’t think Morris is a Hall of Famer because his rankings in their new-fangled ratings fall below their standards. But they don‘t have a formula for intestinal fortitude or determination."
-Murray Chass, Hall of Fame voter

"Statistics are important. There's no arguing that. The problem with stats is, they don't measure grit. Morris had plenty of that."
-Bob Sansevere, Pioneer Press

"When did we decide that earned-run average was more important than wins?"
 -Jack Morris

It is impossible to look at Jack Morris's career and make an objective, rational case that he belongs in the Baseball Hall of Fame.

His 3.90 ERA would rank dead last among Hall of Fame pitchers. His 39.3 Wins Above Replacement ranks 150th all-time at his position. His strikeout-to-walk ratio was a dismal 1.78, good for 424th all-time, a few slots behind Dontrelle Willis and Barry Zito. His adjusted-ERA (ERA+) was just 105, meaning he was an above-average pitcher for his career. Not a great one deserving of Cooperstown enshrinement.

Yet two-thirds of this year's Hall of Fame voters cast a ballot for him anyway. They weren't voting for Jack Morris The Pitcher. They voted for Jack Morris The Legend, a folk creation based entirely on exaggerating memories and distorting facts. The Legend feeds on false narratives to stay alive. Let's debunk a few of them.

Narrative 1. "Jack Morris was the most dominant pitcher of his era."
For this to become true, all you'd have to do is kidnap Nolan Ryan, Roger Clemens, Steve Carlton, and Bert Blyleven.

Morris made 527 career starts. He put his team behind in 344 of them. He allowed four or more runs in 244 of them (more than any other AL pitcher in the DH era). These are not things that "dominant" pitchers do.

Narrative 2. "Jack Morris had the most wins of the 1980s."
This is the "statistic" used to support the "most dominant pitcher of his era" claim. There are so many things wrong with this statement.
1) Wins don't say anything about the quality of pitchers.
2) The rest of the top five in "pitcher wins from the 1980s" is Dave Stieb, Bob Welch, Fernando Valenzuela, and Charlie Hough. Not one of those four guys is in the Hall of Fame, or even came close. It's almost like ... wins don't say anything about the quality of pitchers.
3) Morris also led the 1980s in "most hits allowed," "most runs allowed," and "most home runs allowed." Leading the decade in wins was a function of durability and good run support, not pitching skill. Dave Stieb, for instance, had a better ERA (3.32 to 3.66) and ERA+ (126 to 109) during the 1980s. He just played for an inferior team. He was the better pitcher.
4) "The 1980s" is no more meaningful than any random ten-year sample. Here are a few pitchers who led baseball in wins during other ten-year periods:
1977-1986: Ron Guidry
1984-1993: Frank Viola
2000-2009: Andy Pettitte

Narrative 3. "Jack Morris made fourteen Opening Day starts, fewer than only Tom Seaver."
No one, anywhere, has ever used "Opening Day Starts" as a pro-Hall of Fame argument until now. It's meaningless trivia. Brad Radke made nine Opening Day starts for the Minnesota Twins in his career. He dropped off the ballot last year after receiving precisely 0.3% of the vote. "Fourteen Opening Day Starts" is the perfect example of a writer first deciding that Morris is a Hall of Famer and then seeking out arguments to justify that position, instead of the other way around. "Fourteen Opening Day Starts." Please.

Narrative 4. "Jack Morris was a big-game pitcher, and one of the baseball's best postseason starters."
Morris's postseason ERA was 3.80, nearly identical to his career regular season ERA of 3.90. If he's interested in seeing what a real postseason ace looks like, he should go check out Curt Schilling's page on BaseballReference.com.

Narrative 5. "Jack Morris threw one of the greatest postseason games ever."
He did. He threw a ten-inning shutout in the 1991 World Series, leading the Twins to a 1-0 win and thus the championship. But on its own, it isn't enough to call Morris a Hall of Famer. Nine other pitchers have thrown a shutout in Game 7 of the World Series, including non-Hall of Famers like Ralph Terry (who also won 1-0), Bret Saberhagen, and Johnny Podres. If one dominant postseason game was enough, then Don Larsen would have been inducted into the Hall a long time ago.

Narrative 6. "Jack Morris was the #1 starter for three World Series-winning teams."
He may have started Game 1 of the World Series for three championship teams. But not once was he the best pitcher on a championship team.

1984 Detroit Tigers
Morris: 3.60 ERA, 109 ERA+, 2.3 WAR, 7th in Cy Young voting
Dan Petry: 3.24 ERA, 121 ERA+, 3.3 WAR, 5th in Cy Young voting

1991 Minnesota Twins
Morris: 3.43 ERA, 125 ERA+, 4.1 WAR, 4th in Cy Young voting
Scott Erickson: 3.18 ERA, 135 ERA+, 4.3 WAR, 2nd in Cy Young voting

1992 Toronto Blue Jays
Morris: 4.04 ERA, 101 ERA+, 2.5 WAR, 5th in Cy Young voting
Jimmy Key: 3.53 ERA, 115 ERA+, 3.6 WAR
Juan Guzman: 2.64 ERA, 154 ERA+, 5.2 WAR

In each of his three World Series-winning seasons, Morris was was the second- (or third-) best pitcher on his own team. In fact, in both '84 and '91, Morris finished behind a teammate in the Cy Young Award voting.

Narrative 7. "Numbers don't tell the whole story. You had to see Jack Morris pitch to know how great he was."
This argument comes from the older writers who claim "if you saw him with your eyes, you'd understand." But again: baseball writers who saw Morris pitch were the people giving out Cy Young votes. They were the ones who decided that Morris wasn't the best pitcher on his own team during two of his three championship seasons. In 1984, they awarded the Cy Young to Willie Hernandez, who was not only another teammate of Morris's -- he was a relief pitcher.

Across his entire career, Morris received a GRAND TOTAL of four first-place Cy Young votes. Four. Dave Stieb got five in 1982 alone. Seems like the baseball writers who saw Jack Morris pitch knew exactly how great he was.

Just how great? Below is a table pitting Morris against 20 similar pitchers from around his time period, comparing their career Wins Above Replacement, ERA, adjusted-ERA+, whether or not they won a Cy Young Award, and their single best performance in Hall of Fame voting (by percentage). Note the complete lack of Cooperstown support for any of these pitchers, with a lone exception -- Morris, ironically one of the least qualified candidates listed:

Pitcher	WAR	ERA	ERA+	Cy Young?	Best HoF %
Rick Reuschel	64.6	3.37	114	No	0.4
Kevin Brown	64.5	3.28	127	No	2.1
David Cone	58.2	3.46	121	Yes	3.9
Bret Saberhagen	56.0	3.34	126	Yes (2)	1.3
Dave Stieb	53.5	3.44	122	No	1.4
Jerry Koosman	53.1	3.36	110	No	0.9
Frank Tanana	52.6	3.66	106	No	0.0
Orel Hershiser	48.0	3.48	112	Yes	11.2
Jimmy Key	46.1	3.51	122	No	0.6
Ron Guidry	45.4	3.29	119	Yes	8.8
Dwight Gooden	45.1	3.51	111	Yes	3.3
Dennis Martinez	45.1	3.70	106	No	3.2
Frank Viola	43.7	3.73	112	Yes	0.4
Vida Blue	41.3	3.27	108	Yes	8.7
Bob Welch	39.9	3.47	106	Yes	0.2
Tom Candiotti	39.3	3.73	108	No	0.4
JACK MORRIS	39.3	3.90	105	No	67.7
John Candelaria	37.4	3.33	114	No	0.2
Charlie Hough	34.8	3.75	106	No	0.8
Fernando Valenzuela	34.2	3.54	104	Yes	6.2
Jose Rijo	33.0	3.24	121	No	0.2

Besides Morris, not one of these pitchers was ever seriously considered for the Hall. Most of them fell off the ballot entirely, without any fanfare, after only a year or two. The 67.7% support he earned from the voters this year is utterly inexplicable and undeserved given how quickly these better-or-equal pitchers were tossed aside.

Next year will be his final go-around on the ballot. Maybe he'll get in, maybe he won't. Maybe he'll be treated kindly by the Veterans' Committee down the road. All I know is that if Jack Morris gets into the Hall of Fame, Kevin Brown deserves to get in twice.

Reggie Jackson's Weird Definition of 'Dominant'

Reggie Jackson gave an interview to this week's Sports Illustrated that's quite juicy. In it, he names several players he found undeserving of the Hall of Fame, including Kirby Puckett, Gary Carter, Phil Niekro, Don Sutton, and pretty much everyone associated with performance-enhancing drugs. But that wasn't the worst part. 

The following excerpt came from an ESPN story about the interview:

Jackson didn't think Bert Blyleven should be voted in, either.

"Blyleven wasn't even the dominant pitcher of his era; it was Jack Morris," Jackson said.

Aaaaaaaaaaand away we go:

Career Wins Above Replacement:
Blyleven: 90.7 (39th all-time)
Morris: 39.3 (431st all-time)

Career ERA:
Blyleven: 3.31
Morris: 3.90

Career ERA+:
Blyleven: 118
Morris: 105

Career WHIP:
Blyleven: 1.198
Morris: 1.296

Career Strikeout/Walk Ratio:
Blyleven: 2.80
Morris: 1.78

Career Innings Pitched:
Blyleven: 4,970
Morris: 3,284

Career Strikeouts:
Blyleven: 3,701 (5th all-time)
Morris: 2,478

Seasons With Sub-4.00 ERA:
Blyleven: 16
Morris: 9

Seasons With Sub-3.00 ERA:
Blyleven: 9
Morris: 0

Seasons With 200 Strikeouts:
Blyleven: 8
Morris: 3

So Reggie was right: Jack Morris was more dominant than Blyleven. If by "more dominant" he meant "vastly inferior in every measurable category."