Race to the Bottom: The 2014 NBA Tank-a-Palooza

Imagine you're the Milwaukee Bucks, or the Charlotte Bobcats, or the Sacramento Kings. You've been mired in either lukewarm mediocrity or numbing incompetence for years, certainly longer than anyone can remember. You don't have a single bona fide star on your roster. You can't acquire one through free agency, because no star who wants to win a championship would ever sign on with your dismal roster. You're a completely irrelevant NBA franchise. What's your next move? How do you escape the vicious vortex of perpetual losing? The answer -- counter-intuitive though it may seem -- is "get even worse."

It's a difficult strategy to stomach, particularly for business organizations that need to sell tickets to fans. But it's the right choice. Any mediocre team that doesn't have a chance at winning the title next year -- from the dismal Magic and Bobcats all the way up to the storied Celtics and Lakers -- should be preparing to intentionally weaken their rosters and completely tank away the upcoming season. The ultimate goal: acquiring the highest possible draft pick in 2014.

There are a couple of reasons why the tanking route is the way to go. Number one: more than in any other sport, the destiny of NBA franchises is dictated by stars. It's nearly impossible to win a championship -- or even contend for one -- without having one (or more) of the league's best players. The last team to win a title without a bona fide "star" was, famously, the 2004 Pistons. Since that year, the best player on the Finals-winning team has always been a future-Hall-of-Fame-superstar: LeBron James, Tim Duncan, Kobe Bryant, Paul Pierce, Dirk Nowitzki, Dwayne Wade, and Tony Parker. Any team that doesn't have a player of that caliber just doesn't have a realistic shot at winning a championship, not under this NBA structure. Those out-of-luck teams need to rebuild their rosters and start over with the singular goal of acquiring a superstar. The best way to find one? Getting the highest possible draft pick. LeBron, Duncan, Kobe, Pierce, Nowitzki, and Wade were all lottery (top-14) picks. So were Kevin Durant, Blake Griffin, Kevin Love, Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry, John Wall, Paul George, Kyrie Irving, and Anthony Davis, all of whom are completely rebuilding the images of their once-downtrodden franchises.

Andrew Wiggins, the NBA's version of Andrew Luck.

Reason number two: the 2014 NBA Draft will in all likelihood feature the strongest group of future basketball pros that we've seen in a while. It starts with Andrew Wiggins at Kansas, supposedly the best prospect since LeBron. Jabari Parker (Duke) and Aaron Gordon (Arizona) are two more potential franchise cornerstones. Kentucky is importing the greatest recruiting class in basketball history: a five-star prospect at every position, including the Harrison twins and Julius Randle, all of whom will join returning sophomores (and more future first-rounders) Willie Cauley-Stein and Alex Poythress. In fact, three of last year's top five freshman recruits are coming back to school: Isaiah Austin of Baylor, Kaleb Tarczewski of Arizona, and Kyle Anderson of UCLA. So is Marcus Smart -- who probably would've been picked 2nd overall by Orlando had he entered this year's draft -- as well as Mitch McGary and Glenn Robinson III of Michigan. If there was ever a year to tank for a high draft pick, it's 2014. The available talent is going to be stunning. This time next year, the teams with the worst records in the league are going to hit the jackpot.

So with that, we officially kick off the 2014 NBA Tank-a-Palooza. Here are the participants, some of them more willing than others. Each team is awarded a grade for how good they're going to be at losing. Warning: the (lack of) competition is fierce.

Orlando Magic. With one of the worst rosters in the league, the Magic probably couldn't win games even if they tried. They've got cap space to sign free agents, but haven't used it yet, which is exactly the kind of basic tanking philosophy we're looking for. They're also paying Hedo Turkoglu $12 million to do nothing, which gets high marks, too. Even more creatively: they've been toying with the idea of using the freshly-drafted Victor Oladipo as a point guard. If utilized, the Magic get major tanking points for this strategy -- considering you need to be able to dribble to play that position, using Oladipo at the point should result in a nice wave of additional losses.

Tanking Grade: A

Charlotte Bobcats. Should be in full tanking mode, but they signed Al Jefferson for $41 million for some reason. A puzzling move from a basketball perspective, since Jefferson makes the team slightly better (which is bad news for Charlotte's 2014 draft position) but not good enough to make the playoffs. That middle ground isn't where you want to be. The Bobcats will once again be a bad team in 2014, just not bad enough for a realistic shot at Andrew Wiggins. That's disappointing, because this is the franchise that needs Wiggins most.
Tanking Grade: C

Phoenix Suns. Drafting Alex Len fifth overall last month was a terrible basketball move. He's already had multiple ankle surgeries and he's just not very good. But as a tanking move? Masterful. He won't contribute much at all to the 2014 Suns, which is exactly what we want here. Phoenix's other secret weapon: Michael Beasley. The NBA's answer to Delmon Young, Beasley last year shot a dismal 40% from the field on more than ten shots per game. The Suns would be wise to up his minutes.
Tanking Grade: A

Sacramento Kings. They traded away their best player in exchange for something called Greivis Vasquez, which is consistent with the tanking philosophy. But they've also taken measures to improve the team in the short-term. They're not good enough to make the playoffs, but not bad enough to get a top-five draft pick. Severe penalty for lack of direction.
Tanking Grade: C

Los Angeles Lakers. Barely a playoff team last year, the Lakers are losing Dwight Howard and Metta World Peace while Kobe Bryant is trying to recover from a serious Achilles injury. With no financial flexibility to improve the roster, they've got no shot at winning a championship in 2014. Ideally, they should be trading Pau Gasol, convincing Kobe to take his sweet time returning from rehab, and bottoming out in anticipation of grabbing a future star in the draft. But the Lakers consider themselves to be above tanking. They'll try to bring Kobe back as soon as possible (risking his long-term health) with the ridiculous goal of winning the title. Delusional. There's no point in pulling out all the stops just to finish with a meaningless 41-41 record when a 28-54 record could deliver L.A. its next great superstar.
Tanking Grade: D

Boston Celtics. The Celtics finally gave up on winning another championship with Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett, taking the same plunge that the Lakers stubbornly refuse to make. By trading Pierce and Garnett to the Brooklyn Nets, the Celtics pulled off one of the best tanking moves of the summer, for several reasons:
1. Losing Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett instantly makes the team really bad, improving its potential draft position.
2. Replacing those franchise icons with The $10 Million Corpse of Gerald Wallace (and his sweet sub-40% shooting percentage last year), as well as Resident Kardashian Head Case Kris Humphries, instantly makes the team unfathomably bad.
3. Boston received a truckload of draft picks in the deal, which will improve the roster down the road while keeping it dismal for right now.
Furthermore, the Celtics will probably let Rajon Rondo take his time recovering from his ACL injury (the opposite of what the Lakers will do with Kobe). Until he returns, the team's backcourt will be composed of Avery Bradley, Jordan Crawford, MarShon Brooks, Courtney Lee, and Keith Bogans. This is going to be a really bad team. Imagine what it would look like if they trade away Rondo. That would be the ultimate play for Wiggins.
Tanking Grade: A

Milwaukee Bucks. Mired in a neverending quest to acquire a strangehold on the eighth seed in the playoffs. They gave about $40 million combined to O.J. Mayo and Zaza Pachulia, which suggests they're more interested in collecting fun names than tanking. The Bucks are never going to be able to convince the best free agents to come to Milwaukee, so the draft is their only chance of getting elite talent ... but they're not putting themselves in a position to get the highest possible pick. Going nowhere.
Tanking Grade: D

Utah Jazz. Many of the teams on this list are finding subtle ways to fulfill their tanking needs. Like Gerald Wallace and Michael Beasley types. The Jazz, on the other hand, aren't being shy about it. They:
1. Let their two best players walk in free agency.
2. Got nothing in return for them.
3. Used that cap space to absorb two of the least valuable players in the sport, Andris Biedrins and Richard Jefferson. Both are basically useless on the court and they're owed a combined $20 million next season.

If your team could have Richard Jefferson or a pile of old laundry, how many minutes would you give the laundry?
— sir broosk (@celebrityhottub) May 7, 2013

Losing your two best players and replacing them with $20 million in dead money is an impressive tanking maneuver. And the rest of the roster is completely devoid of any solid veterans. If Trey Burke isn't up to the task of running an NBA offense in his first season, then the Jazz will be in the Andrew Wiggins sweepstakes.
Tanking Grade: A

Philadelphia 76ers. On draft night a few weeks ago, the Sixers pulled off the best tanking move of the summer. They traded away their best player and All-Star point guard, Jrue Holiday, to New Orleans for nothing that can help them next season (the injured Nerlens Noel and a 2014 draft pick), and then replaced him with a rookie who can't shoot (Michael Carter-Williams). So basically, the Sixers instantly made themselves a front-runner for Andrew Wiggins while drastically improving their future. This time next year, Philadelphia could be looking at a terrifically exciting young core consisting of Noel, Carter-Williams, and two elite prospects from the 2014 draft. Right now, though? Evan Turner is their second-best player. This team is going to be worse than awful next year. Which is exactly the point.

Tanking Grade: A+

Michael Jordan Would Probably Vote For Jack Morris, Too

You hate to question the basketball know-how of the best basketball player ever. You really do. But then he goes off and says something insane, and, well ... here we are.

Apparently Michael Jordan said in an interview with NBA TV that he would take Kobe Bryant over LeBron James. The story on ESPN.com doesn't say what the specific context was -- is Jordan taking Kobe over LeBron for one game? A Game Seven? Or for a hypothetical playoff series? For one season? For an all-time team? To start a hypothetical franchise? Not exactly clear on which of these platforms Jordan would shun LeBron for Kobe. But it's so obviously the wrong choice that it doesn't even matter.

Picking Kobe over LeBron is intellectually equivalent to voting Jack Morris into the Baseball Hall of Fame. There's simply no way to justify it using any rational facts. Trust me -- I tried. I tried to give Jordan the benefit of the doubt. "Maybe I'm not as knowledgeable on this subject as he is," said I. "After all, he is the greatest athlete to ever play the sport. Maybe he does know something I don't."

I checked, and he clearly doesn't. You can try to find a meaningful statistical measure that says Kobe Bryant is a better basketball player than LeBron James, but you'll be looking for a very long time. First off, James is just better at the sport's primary goal, which is putting the ball into the basket. His career field goal percentage is 48.8% (and he's shooting 56% this season!). Kobe's career average is 45.3%. Heck, Kobe's career-high in single-season field goal percentage was 46.9%, back in 2001-02. James has only had one season with a lower percentage than that -- his first. So to recap: every single one of LeBron's seasons, except for his rookie year, has been more efficient than Kobe Bryant's most efficient season. Read that sentence again.

Now, one could logically assume that while James might be a more efficient scorer, Bryant is the more prolific scorer, given that putting up obscene point totals on a nightly basis is what Kobe does best. But his career scoring average is 25.5 points per game. James has averaged 27.6. So, James scores more, and does so at a more efficient rate. Hmm. Numbers making things complicated again.

There's obviously more. James averages 7.2 rebounds per game in his career, Kobe 5.3. James averages 6.9 assists, Kobe 4.7. An advanced measure called PER (Player Efficiency Rating), which captures a player's total contributions on the court into one whole number (much like WAR in baseball), likes James more, too. In fact, James has led the league in PER in each of the last five seasons, and he's leading the league again this season. Kobe has never led the league in PER. LeBron grabs more steals and blocks more shots and plays more minutes and oh-by-the-way is one of the best defensive players in the league who can guard any position on the floor.

Kobe does shoot free throws at a higher percentage, but James actually gets to the line more. Their carer three-point percentages are identical (33.6%), but LeBron has improved that area of his game recently and is shooting 42% from beyond the arc this season (!!!). If you're desperate to find something, anything, that Kobe has the upper hand in, it's turnovers. Kobe turns the ball over less. There you go, Kobe. Revel in your one victory.

"But what about the playoffs," you're probably asking. "Surely Kobe Bryant, renowned playoff assassin and clutch performer, is superior to infamous choker LeBron James under the bright lights of the NBA postseason." Sorry, wrong again, Straw Man. Kobe's postseason points-per-game average is nearly identical to his regular season average, 25.6, while LeBron is up at 28.5. James still has the efficiency advantage, .469% to .448%. His statistical edge in all those other categories mentioned above carries into the postseason, too.

So what, exactly, is Mr. Jordan's reasoning for picking Kobe? Rings. Kobe has won five titles. James has one. Here's the direct quote:

"Five beats one every time I look at it," Jordan said. "And not that (James) won't get five. He may get more than that, but five is bigger than one."



Factually, sure, Michael is right. But haven't we, as a society, evolved past the stage of judging individual players based on team outcome? Clearly not. We decided Mike Trout wasn't as good as Miguel Cabrera because the Tigers were better than the Angels. We still think Derek Jeter is better than Alex Rodriguez because Jeter has five titles and Rodriguez has one. Robert Horry won seven NBA championships; would Jordan take him over Kobe, if rings are the ultimate judge of talent? What about any member of the 1960s Celtics?

Are we just ignoring the quality of teammates? Does Michael think one player can just will his team to a championship, even if the rest of his team sucks? If that was possible, then why hasn't Kobe won 16 championships instead of five? Remember that when Kobe Bryant won his first three titles, the MVP of the Finals each time was Shaquille O'Neal, not Bryant. I wonder how many rings Kobe or Jordan would have if you replaced their Hall of Fame teammates with the scrubs LeBron James had to work with on the Cleveland Cavaliers between 2003 and 2010. Replace Shaq or Scottie Pippen with Antawn Jamison or Mo Williams. How well do Kobe and Jordan do with those guys?

Anyways, this whole narrative is ridiculous because Jordan is basically penalizing LeBron for not playing as long as Kobe. Of course Kobe has won more rings; this is his 17th season. LeBron is actually right on pace with Jordan himself when it comes to winning titles. Jordan won his first ring during his age-27 season. So did LeBron. So fine, if you want to discount what LeBron has accomplished statistically because he can't accelerate time, go ahead. That's basically the one thing he can't do.

It's just disappointing to see Michael Jordan buying into these ridiculous media-driven narratives. Because narrative is the only reason why anyone would think Kobe Bryant is better than LeBron James. Yes, Michael, five is bigger than one. But 27.6 is bigger than 25.5, and 48.8% is bigger than 45.3%, and 7.2 is bigger than 5.3, and 6.9 is bigger than 4.7, and so on down the line.

So go ahead, Michael. Take Kobe Bryant. You can have him. I'll take LeBron James. And you can watch helplessly as my team destroys yours.

One Sport Left Standing

Football: incompetent officiating.

Basketball: three relevant teams.

Hockey: currently nonexistent.

Baseball: the best.

Amar'e Stoudemire's Hilariously Unintentional Irony

An ESPN update following another Knicks playoff loss to the Heat:

"MIAMI -- Amar'e Stoudemire suffered lacerations on his left hand after the New York Knicks' loss to the Miami Heat on Monday night, a team spokesman confirmed.

A team source told ESPN's Rachel Nichols that Stoudemire injured the hand while punching the glass casing surrounding a fire extinguisher located in a hallway at the AmericanAirlines Arena."

I am now preparing myself mentally for the coming 48-hour media tsunami of jokes, puns, and snide comments that will include the phrase, "Break Glass In Case of Emergency."