Pujols vs. Mauer: A Question of RBIs

A week ago, MLB Network posed this intriguing question to two of its analysts: under their current contracts, which player would you rather have on your team -- Albert Pujols or Joe Mauer?

A year ago, you would've looked stupid just asking that question. Pujols, an all-time great hitter, had just signed a massive $240 million contract with the Angels; Mauer was coming off an injury-plagued season where he only played 82 games and hit three home runs. Pujols was the easy selection. Now, though? The choice might be equally obvious -- but with a different answer.

In fact, MLB Network's token "sabermetrics guy," Brian Kenny, had no trouble picking Mauer. Old-school traditionalist Harold Reynolds took Pujols without hesitation. And that disagreement perfectly encapsulates baseball's long-lasting bias towards perceived "run-producers."

Because Pujols racks up huge RBI totals, he gets labelled as a "run-producer," worthy of big bucks because of some innate ability to drive in runs. Because Mauer has never had a 100-RBI season, he doesn't get that special badge. He's just a good hitter who walks a lot -- not the guy you want with runners in scoring position. You need a proven "run-producer" in that situation.

Obviously, this is bogus. The primary goal of a baseball hitter is to not make outs. Joe Mauer is exceptionally good at not making outs. In fact, just last year, he was the best player in the American League at not making outs. His .416 on-base percentage led the league, beating out the guy who won the Triple Crown, and would have led all of baseball if not for The Walking Machine Known As Joey Votto.

In the past, Albert Pujols was even better than Mauer at not making outs (.414 career OBP compared to .405 for Mauer). But in 2011, his OBP was .366. In 2012, it dropped again to .343. Again: Mauer was at .416 last year, and has been above .400 in three of the past four years. And that's just one of the many reasons why I'd rather have Mauer over Pujols for the remainder of their contracts. Mauer is three years younger. Mauer can still catch, while Pujols is relegated to first base or DH. Pujols once had the durability advantage, but has dealt with a rash of injuries recently, including a nasty case of plantar fasciitis that has him limping around the baseball diamond like a beached whale at the moment. Pujols' other advantage, his power, has declined for three straight years. And most importantly, Pujols is under contract for the next NINE years, until he's 41 years old, for a grand total of $228 million. Mauer is under contract for the next six years, until he's 35 years old, for a total of $138 million.

So would you rather have the older, declining, injured player whose power and on-base percentage have taken an alarming dive, or the younger, less expensive player with elite on-base skills who can still do some catching? Oh -- and you have to pay the first guy $30 million when he turns 41 years old.

Harold Reynolds, of course, still wants Pujols. Because, you know, he's a "run-producer." Here's the justification he offered:

"But when you're paying that kind of money, the return is power. That's how you get that money. And that's where Joe's lacked at. Would you give Wade Boggs that money? No. Would you give Tony Gwynn that money? Rod Carew? They wouldn't get that money."

Boggs, Gwynn, Carew. They weren't "run-producers" or RBI guys. They were just Hall of Famers. Lame.

His next argument, which is by far the most entertaining:

"Now you're knocking Albert a little bit, but he also can DH ... "

Oh, Pujols can DH! What a gifted, talented human being! He can probably hit anywhere in the order, too!

" ... he's only missed eight games so far in this span of almost two years now, he's been in this contract ... "

First of all, it hasn't been "almost two years," it's been "one year and like three weeks." Secondly, Mauer only missed 15 games last year. Because he also played the most challenging defensive position in baseball.

Brian Kenny then admitted that Pujols has the power edge, but notes that in five of the last seven years, Mauer has finished within the top three in on-base percentage in the American League (and led the league last year).

Reynolds was incredulous:

"Leads the league in on-base? Come on, Brian. Seriously? He's got to drive in some runs."

Brilliant. Mauer, your .416 OBP is total crap because you only had 85 RBIs. Hey, Harold: HE PLAYED FOR THE MINNESOTA TWINS. They're all sorts of awful. The two guys hitting in front of Mauer last year (who should be the Twins' best on-base guys) were Denard Span and Ben Revere. Their OBPs were .342 and .333. Who was hitting ahead of Pujols? Oh yeah -- MIKE TROUT.

On a related note: right now, Brandon Phillips has the second-most RBIs in baseball. But Phillips isn't a "run-producer" or even an elite hitter. Why so many RBIs? Because two of the players hitting ahead of him in the Reds lineup are Shin-Soo Choo and Joey Votto, who both currently have on-base percentages over .500. FIVE HUNDRED. Phillips isn't naturally good at accumulating RBIs; he's just always hitting with men on base. RBIs are a function of opportunity. It shouldn't be too surprising that Pujols had 20 more RBIs than Mauer when one of them was in a lineup with Mike Trout and the other was in a lineup with Denard Span and Ben Revere.

Reynolds continued by trying to discredit Mauer's positional flexibility:

"Out of the 242 games so far, he's caught 136. You can't say that's catcher. He's been DH-ing a lot."

Hilarious use of the DH argument. With Pujols: "He's so awesome, he can even DH!" With Mauer, it's a negative: "He only played HALF his games at catcher -- he's just a DH!"

No, Mauer isn't a full-time catcher anymore, but he's played that position in over half of his games over the past two years. That's extremely valuable.

When Brian Kenny accused Reynolds of undervaluing on-base percentage, he pretty much lost it again:

"It's undervalued if you're scoring runs. Other than that, big deal, I'm gonna walk Joe Mauer."

This logic is bizarre. "It's undervalued if you're scoring runs." But ... Mauer does score runs. He finished second in runs on the Twins despite their terribleness. "I'm gonna walk Joe Mauer." Okay, you do that, but I can't condone freely giving Mauer a 1.000 OBP as a good baseball strategy. Pretty sure he'd score even more runs if you did that.

Harold Reynolds analyzes baseball in individual terms. If Pujols has more RBIs than Mauer, Pujols is the better player. If Mauer isn't scoring runs, his on-base skills aren't valuable. For whatever reason, he can't seem to understand the differences in context between the Angels lineup and the Twins lineup. Because of that mistake, he'd be willing to pay a declining power hitter $228 million until he turns 41 rather than pay an elite on-base guy $138 million until he turns 35. Okay then.

As a final note: for his career, Mauer has hit .343/.460/.497 in 1,300 plate appearances with runners in scoring position. If that isn't worthy of "run-producer" status, then what is?

Albert Pujols Still Hits Homers

On Tuesday, the Angels fired longtime hitting coach Mickey Hatcher. Not strictly because of Pujols' slow start, but because only the A's and Mariners have lower team OBPs, and only the A's and Twins have scored fewer runs.

With Hatcher gone, replaced by Triple-A coach Jim Eppard, Pujols homered on Wednesday. And then he homered again on Thursday. In other words:

Pujols with Hatcher: 146 at-bats, 1 HR
Pujols with Eppard: 8 at-bats, 2 HR

Coincidence? Probably. Interesting? Definitely.

Next on Pujols' American League To-Do List: start walking. He's walked exactly once in the month of May. Albert has proven that he hasn't turned into Chone Figgins, but he needs to prove he hasn't turned into Vladimir Guerrero. That .248 OBP is far uglier than any low home run total.

Albert Pujols Doesn't Walk Anymore

Much has been made of the fact that Albert Pujols only has one home run this season, and we're in the middle of May. In reality, that's not the biggest problem for the Angels star. Everyone goes through power outages: Adrian Gonzalez has only homered twice, Ryan Zimmerman just once. The far more troubling trend is his plate discipline. Specifically: his walks, which he usually accumulates in large amounts. They've been completely missing so far in 2012.

There are tangible reasons for the drop-off in free passes, reasons that are becoming troubling trends. Pujols is taking more swings than ever before, and not just at strikes. He's swinging at pitches outside the strike zone far more frequently. His more aggressive approach at the plate has led to just five unintentional walks all season, in 150 plate appearances. Five walks.

By comparison, Ian Kennedy also has five walks. In 17 plate appearances.

And Ian Kennedy is a pitcher.

If Pujols was maintaining his career walk rate and showing his typical plate discipline, it would be far easier to chalk up his slow start to poor luck or league adjustment. But he's not, which is worrisome for an Angels offense heavily leaning on their new slugger for offensive production. In the AL, only the Twins and A's have scored fewer runs than the Halos.

Pujols needs to snap out of his funk soon, or else a wild card spot will be completely out of reach (with the Rangers playing like they are, the division may already be out of the question). To complicate matters, competition for those spots will be fierce in the hypercompetitive AL with all of the teams in the East, as well as two or three in the Central, targeting playoff berths. After spending over $300 million in the offseason, failing to bring even one postseason game to L.A. would have to be considered a colossal failure for the Angels franchise. Much of the blame will fall on Albert's shoulders if he doesn't turn things around.

The Albert Update

It's May 5th, and Albert Pujols' batting line looks like this:

.194/.237/.269, .505 OPS, 0 HRs, 6 BB's to 15 K's, 5 RBIs, -0.9 WAR

For the first few weeks of the season, the narrative was "Pujols hasn't homered yet!" But at least he was still getting hits of some sort. Now, he's just not hitting at all. Or walking. His plate discipline is deteriorating. That -0.9 Wins Above Replacement number is good for the worst in baseball.

Yeah: at this point in the season, Albert Pujols, MVP of the previous decade, has been the least valuable player in baseball. I think it's appropriate to move up to DEFCON 4 now.

Meanwhile, the St. Louis Cardinals are the best team in the National League sans their former superstar. Hopefully we'll look back at this and laugh at the time everyone thought the Pujols Machine was broken. But in the meantime...here are some notable players who, unlike Albert, have hit a home run this season:

Omar Infante (five!!!!)
Jose Altuve (and he's really short)
Kirk Nieuwenhuis (and he's a Met)
Jordan Schafer
Jack Hannahan
Chris Johnson (and not the one who plays for the Titans)
Clint Barmes
Chone Figgins (and he's just awful)
Freddy Galvis
Dee Gordon
Whatever physically remains of Orlando Hudson

Get well soon, Albert.