Bracketeering, Part One: The Midwest Region

Every year, the NCAA Tournament has a Region of Death. In 2013, it's the Midwest.

Marcus Smart, Peyton Siva, and Keith Appling. Rick Pitino, Mike Krzyzewski, and Tom Izzo. Doug McDermott, Mason Plumlee, Gorgui Dieng. They can all be found in the Midwest. Whoever emerges from this region will have earned it. Some scattered thoughts on picking this region:

1. It would be a huge surprise if the three top seeds -- Louisville, Duke, and Michigan State -- didn't all advance to the Sweet Sixteen with relative ease. Who can stand in their way? That's what makes this region so tough. We're almost guaranteed some epic games between national title contenders on the second weekend.

2. Usually, a #4 seed isn't a sleeper. In this bracket, Saint Louis is. The Billikens are fundamentally sound with a tenacious defense and balanced offense. They aren't going to lose to New Mexico State in the Round of 64 and if they get past the Oklahoma State/Oregon winner, Louisville will have its hands full in that Sweet Sixteen matchup.

3. #5 seed Oklahoma State got a raw deal. Not only did the Cowboys get stuck in the worst region ... and not only are they stuck in the same pod as Saint Louis ... they also got paired up with twelfth-seeded Oregon in the first round. That's hardly fair. Oregon is way better than your typical #12 seed (the other three were Akron, California, and Ole Miss ... yuck). The Ducks just won the Pac-12 tournament and were projected to be a single-digit seed. Apparently they ended up on the 12-line because of other conflicts. That's a tough break for the Cowboys even though I'd still expect them to win this game.

4. Middle Tennessee facing Saint Mary's is the ideal play-in game. Nobody knows how good these teams are because neither one faced very many quality teams. So they can slug it out in Dayton while the rest of us educate ourselves on the Blue Raiders and the Gaels. Perfect.

5. Each region typically has three "toss-ups" that are headaches to try and pick: the 8 vs. 9, 7 vs. 10, and 6 vs. 11 games. But the Midwest's toss-up contests each feature a team I deeply dislike, which makes them easier to pick than usual. One is eighth-seeded Missouri, a team that struggles mightily away from home and whose point guard Phil Pressey is prone to poor decision-making. Their first-round opponent Colorado State is much more reliable. The second is #10 seed Cincinnati, because the Bearcats' halfcourt offense makes eyes bleed. Creighton will be able to actually score the basketball. The third is Memphis, which seems heavily overvalued as a six-seed. The only NCAA Tournament team Memphis has beaten is Harvard. No joke. The Tigers play the winner of the Saint Mary's/Middle Tennessee play-in game; they're a likely upset victim if one of those two underdogs ends up being respectable.

So, What Happens? Chalk to the Sweet Sixteen. Memphis goes down, but not many other upsets -- Oregon, Valparaiso, and New Mexico State are far from impressive. The winner of the Saint Louis/Oklahoma State game becomes the dangerous team to watch. In the second weekend, Michigan State uses its massive size advantage to exploit Duke's rebounding weakness, but the Spartans can't handle Louisville's pressure in the regional final. And the Midwest will make up for its lack of an inspiring Cinderella with basketball of the very highest quality.