Showing posts with label Justin Verlander. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Justin Verlander. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 16, 2012

One of the Many Benefits of Being Justin Verlander

It's fairly common practice for baseball's elite starting pitchers to get more favorable ball/strike calls from umpires. This is especially true for Justin Verlander, the best pitcher in baseball. As you might imagine, Justin Verlander is already a very good pitcher without getting the benefit of the doubt from umpires, because he is Justin Verlander, someone who has won the Most Valuable Player Award as a pitcher, which is a very difficult thing to do. So when Justin Verlander does get a favorable strike zone from the umpire--regardless of whether or not he needs it--well, there's not much you can do as a hitter except go through the formalities of your official at-bat and forget about acquainting yourself with first base.

On Tuesday night, Verlander carried his Detroit Tigers to a 3-0 series lead on the New York Yankees by pitching into the ninth inning and only allowing three hits and one run. He also did not walk anybody. This is an impressive feat, because even though the Yankee are currently mired in an epic offensive slump, they are still the Yankees, and they tend to take a lot of walks regardless of other factors. Below is the strike zone Verlander got from the home plate umpire, depicted from the catcher's perspective; the red squares are called strikes, green squares are balls. Circled are the pitches that were called strikes by the umpire, but were in reality, as we can see, out of the strike zone:


Seven of the nine Yankees facing Verlander were batting left-handed, and thus were standing on the right-hand side of the above image. On top of having to contend with Justin Verlander, which is difficult enough on its own, they had to contend with a home plate umpire who consistently called pitches several inches off the outside part of the plate as strikes. That is, as they say, a tall order. Below is an example of how this challenge manifested itself: a seventh-inning at-bat between Verlander and Raul Ibanez, the latter of whom represented the tying run for the Yankees with two outs:


The first pitch, as the image shows, was some sort of breaking pitch in the dirt that Ibanez laid off of, making the count 1-0. Ibanez could then expect to be thrown a fastball in the zone--a potentially tasty pitch for a dead-red fastball hitter like Ibanez. Verlander did throw a fastball, but at this point he knew he did not have to actually throw it as a strike for it to be called a strike. He threw two pitches Ibanez couldn't do anything with, a fastball and a curveball off the plate, and both are called as strikes. The count is suddenly 1-2 even though Ibanez would see it as 3-0. Ibanez would ground out weakly to first to end the inning.

Did the starter opposite Verlander, Phil Hughes, reap the same benefits of an expanded strike zone? Not really. In fact, the opposite. Below is Hughes' strike zone. The circled green dots are pitches thrown by Hughes that were within the strike zone, but were nevertheless called as balls by the umpire:


So based on this, five of Hughes' 61 pitches (8%) were balls that should have been called strikes. Verlander was not squeezed in the same way: another brief skim of his strike zone above shows that just one of his 132 pitches (0.7%) was a ball that should have been a strike. Conversely, 10 of Verlander's pitches that were off the plate were called strikes anyway. Not once did Hughes get a call like that in his favor.

While Justin Verlander was getting called strikes several inches off the edge of the plate, Phil Hughes threw one pitch almost down the middle of the strike zone that was called a ball. This is not to say that Verlander is actually a worse pitcher than we think, or that Hughes is a better pitcher than we think. This is just to say that the home plate umpire can sometimes make the job a little easier for the Justin Verlanders of the world, an advantage they hardly even need, and the home plate umpire can sometimes make the job a little tougher for the Phil Hugheses of the world, a disadvantage they hardly they can afford.

Friday, October 12, 2012

Verlander and Cabrera

Would the Tigers still have beaten the Athletics in their five-game playoff series without Miguel Cabrera?

Probably. He reached base six times in five games, driving in one run and scoring another.

Would the Tigers still have beaten the Athletics in their five-game playoff series without Justin Verlander?

Almost certainly not. He threw 16 innings (including a complete-game shutout in the deciding Game 5 on the road), allowed one run in the series, and basically got the Tigers two of their three victories by himself.

I still believe Miguel Cabrera was more valuable to the Tigers than Justin Verlander over the course of the entire regular season, and he should finish higher on the MVP ballot because of that.

But in a few weeks, Cabrera will win the MVP over Mike Trout. And writers who voted for Cabrera will defend their decision by claiming "Cabrera carried his team," which is what real MVPs do. At that point, I will think back to this Detroit/Oakland playoff series, and I will wonder, "Did Cabrera carry Verlander, or was it Verlander who carried Cabrera?" And I think I know the answer to my question.

Wednesday, May 2, 2012

A 100% True Fact That Is Not Made Up

MLB.com's recap of the Royals' 3-2 victory over Justin Verlander's Tigers on Wednesday contains this factual statement that's so true I won't even waste the energy double-checking it:

"The Tigers showed some life in the eighth, as Verlander avoided his first loss since September 2009."

That's got be some kind of record.

[Verlander has not lost to the Royals since September 2009; the article was later corrected.]

Wednesday, April 18, 2012

Mike Scioscia is a Bad Manager, and Other Tidbits

  • Okay--Mike Scioscia is not a bad manager. But right now, he's not a very good one. First of all: his lineup card. I'd imagine that an Angels fan's ideal lineup would feature an outfield of Mark Trumbo, Peter Bourjos, and Mike Trout, with Maicer Izturis at third base and Kendry Morales DHing. In this scenario, Vernon Wells, Torii Hunter, and Bobby Abreu are far, far away. Instead, Wells and his .279 OBP have gotten 42 at-bats, while Trumbo and his team-leading (team-leading) 1.224 OPS have gotten 16. And Mike Trout's Triple-A numbers are: .407/.459/.593. Scioscia isn't putting his best team on the field each game.

    The more inexcusable part of Scioscia's team management has been his bullpen usage. In fact, it may have been the reason the Angels lost on Tuesday night. With the Angels winning 2-1 with two outs in the bottom of the seventh, Scioscia inexplicably pulled starter Dan Haren, who had thrown just 85 pitches, after he surrendered a bunt single. Dominant lefty setup man Scott Downs entered the game and got out of the jam on four pitches, but again, inexplicably, Scioscia did not send him out to pitch the eighth. Neither did closer Jordan Walden, who has thrown just two innings this season. In came Kevin Jepsen, owner of a career 5.04 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. Predictably, Jepsen allowed the A's to score four runs en route to their comeback 5-3 victory.

    So on offense, the Angels' best players (Trumbo, Trout) are losing at-bats to inferior options (Wells, Abreu, Hunter). In the bullpen, the Angels' best relievers (Walden, Downs) aren't pitching the most high-leverage innings, in favor of inferior options (Jepsen and Company). The only ways a manager can really hurt his team, besides putting himself in the cleanup spot or ordering Pujols to bunt, is by screwing up his lineup card and making poor bullpen moves. Scioscia is doing both. I'd be pissed if I was an Angels fan.

  • To be impatient is to be human, which is why we often lose interest in hyped young players, even if they're billed as future superstars, because of early struggles or injury setbacks. Once Domonic Brown, Brian Matusz, and Justin Smoak don't instantly become All-Stars, they are quickly forgotten as everyone moves on to fawn over the next wave: Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, and Matt Moore. Which is why it's time to play 'Remember These Guys?' in which former top prospects who have somewhat fallen out of the spotlight, due to struggles with performance or injury, are recognized as Post-Hype Stars for their production so far:
    Matt Wieters: .333/.442/.694, 4 HRs, 9 RBIs
    Jason Heyward: .351/.429/.595, 2 HRs, 4 SBs
    Buster Posey: .375/.429/.500, 1 HR
    Nolan Reimold: .351/.368/.757, 4 HRs

    Stephen Strasburg: 1.42 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 19 K's, 5 BB's in 19 IP, .191 BAA
    Jordan Zimmermann: 1.29 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, .184 BAA
    Kyle Drabek: 1.42 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, .200 BAA
    Rick Porcello: 1.84 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, .226 BAA
    Neftali Feliz: 2.25 ERA, 1.08 ERA, .209 BAA
    Jake Arrieta: 2.26 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 16 K's, 4 BB's in 20.1 IP, .194 BAA

    The pitchers' performances are far more volatile, given that they've got two or three starts under their belt. But it would not be surprising at all if Wieters and Heyward have permanently joined the ranks of the elite. And remember: Wieters is only 25. Heyward is just...22 (!!!).

  • Monday night: the Tigers are clinging to one-run lead against the Royals. The bases are loaded with two outs in the ninth inning. Justin Verlander is on the mound, one out away from a complete-game victory. Alex Gordon is at the plate. Verlander then throws the following sequence of pitches:
    -Pitch #127: 100 mph fastball, fouled off.
    -Pitch #128: 100 mph fastball, high.
    -Pitch #129: 100 mph fastball, inside.
    -Pitch #130: 88 mph changeup, strike two looking.
    -Pitch #131: 100 mph fastball, strike three looking, Tigers win 3-2.
    Come on. That's not fair.

  • Speaking of ridiculous arm strength...THIS is why no one should ever test A's right fielder Josh Reddick:


  • Red Sox reliever Mark Melancon had a laughably poor outing against the Rangers on Tuesday night. With Boston already losing 8-2 in the eighth inning, the following sequence then occurred:
    -Mark Melancon enters the game.
    -Ian Kinsler doubles.
    -Elvis Andrus walks.
    -Josh Hamilton homers.
    -Adrian Beltre homers.
    -David Murphy walks.
    -Nelson Cruz homers.
    -Mark Melancon is removed from the game.
    That Hamilton homer was one of the deepest, like, ever in Fenway Park. Appropriately, Melancon's ERA now sits at 49.50. The former Yankees prospect may very well be an embedded mole sabotaging the Red Sox from within as part of an elaborate sting operation. Other members of Melancon's crack team of double agents: Crawford, Carl and Lackey, John.

  • This bit of news perfectly epitomizes the sad state of Minnesota Twins baseball:

    "In a stunning turn of events on Tuesday, Twins righthander Scott Baker went in to have surgery on his flexor pronator tendon but exited with Tommy John reconstructive elbow surgery."

  • And finally, the chronic erosion of one's love for baseball (and life in general) caused by wearing a Baltimore Orioles uniform over an extended period of time is illustrated by this heartbreaking chronological sequence of Robert Andino headshots:


Being an Oriole takes a toll on the soul.