AL East: Baltimore and Tampa Bay (tied)
AL Central: Cleveland
AL West: Texas
NL East: Washington
NL Central: St. Louis
NL West: Los Angeles
Only one of those teams would actually go on to win their division -- Washington. In fact, the Rays, Indians, and Dodgers missed the playoffs altogether. Meanwhile, the two eventual pennant-winners, Detroit and San Francisco, had combined to win 30 games and lose 29. So it's not like the standings in early May offer any predictive value for what they'll look like in late September.
But sometimes, the evidence provided by the season's first thirty games is enough to reevaluate what we thought we knew during the winter months. Sometimes, stubbornly sticking to obsolete perceptions of teams is counter-productive. At this time last year, the Athletics were surprisingly 16-14 and the Orioles, at 19-11, were even better; both were expected to fall back into the last place slots that had been reserved for them, but they never did. On the other end of the spectrum, the Angels were 13-18 and the Red Sox were 12-17; both were expected to snap out of their funks and contend for the World Series, but they never did. So yes, it might be early to totally re-calibrate expectations -- still, that doesn't mean that several important trends haven't already started to reveal themselves.
1. The Blue Jays are somewhere between 'Train Wreck' and 'Dumpster Fire' status. On paper, this was the best team in the AL East, maybe the best team in the league. A rotation headed by a pair of aces; a lineup anchored by a pair of elite power hitters; a solid cache of depth. There weren't many holes on the roster.
Just a month into the season, the Blue Jays are not only stuck with a dismal 11-21 record, and not only are they in last place -- they're also 9.5 games out of first. NINE POINT FIVE. Not even the Marlins are that far out of first, and the Marlins are intentionally trying to lose baseball games. No team has gotten worse production out of the #5-hole in the lineup than Toronto, thanks to inconsistency from Melky Cabrera, Adam Lind, and Colby Rasmus. R.A. Dickey's ERA is 5.36; Josh Johnson's is 6.36; Mark Buehrle's is 6.43. Jose Reyes, this team's best player in the early going, will be on the disabled list for another couple of months. In the meantime, the role of shortstop will be played by something called a "Munenori Kawasaki." Add it all up, and you get a team that's been outscored by a total of 47 runs, second-worst in baseball ahead of only the Astros.
Now: are the Blue Jays really this bad? Of course not. The pitching will improve just because there's nowhere to go but up. Jays hitters have actually been the unluckiest in baseball as a group; random chance will be friendlier to them. But this struggling squad faces the same problem that the Angels did last year: all of these losses are permanently banked. There's no changing that 11-21 record. They're already looking at a ten-game deficit in the division. Just to get to 90 wins, they have to go 80-50 the rest of the way. Is that impossible? No. Is it likely that this uninspiring group will play nearly-perfect baseball for the next five months, without Jose Reyes for half that time? Hardly. Especially not in their hyper-competitive division. As stunning and unfortunate as this is, the Blue Jays are pretty much dead in the water already. Who saw that coming?
1. The Blue Jays are somewhere between 'Train Wreck' and 'Dumpster Fire' status. On paper, this was the best team in the AL East, maybe the best team in the league. A rotation headed by a pair of aces; a lineup anchored by a pair of elite power hitters; a solid cache of depth. There weren't many holes on the roster.
Just a month into the season, the Blue Jays are not only stuck with a dismal 11-21 record, and not only are they in last place -- they're also 9.5 games out of first. NINE POINT FIVE. Not even the Marlins are that far out of first, and the Marlins are intentionally trying to lose baseball games. No team has gotten worse production out of the #5-hole in the lineup than Toronto, thanks to inconsistency from Melky Cabrera, Adam Lind, and Colby Rasmus. R.A. Dickey's ERA is 5.36; Josh Johnson's is 6.36; Mark Buehrle's is 6.43. Jose Reyes, this team's best player in the early going, will be on the disabled list for another couple of months. In the meantime, the role of shortstop will be played by something called a "Munenori Kawasaki." Add it all up, and you get a team that's been outscored by a total of 47 runs, second-worst in baseball ahead of only the Astros.
Now: are the Blue Jays really this bad? Of course not. The pitching will improve just because there's nowhere to go but up. Jays hitters have actually been the unluckiest in baseball as a group; random chance will be friendlier to them. But this struggling squad faces the same problem that the Angels did last year: all of these losses are permanently banked. There's no changing that 11-21 record. They're already looking at a ten-game deficit in the division. Just to get to 90 wins, they have to go 80-50 the rest of the way. Is that impossible? No. Is it likely that this uninspiring group will play nearly-perfect baseball for the next five months, without Jose Reyes for half that time? Hardly. Especially not in their hyper-competitive division. As stunning and unfortunate as this is, the Blue Jays are pretty much dead in the water already. Who saw that coming?
2. The Orioles are for real, once again. It was reasonable to expect Baltimore to regress from last year, because last year was either an unrepeatable feat of remarkable overachievement or the product of Buck Showalter's dark magic. Instead, the opposite is true: this team is better now than it was a year ago.
The pitching is still average at best, so the Orioles have just decided to outscore everybody with a suddenly-unrelenting offense. Much of it is fueled by the usual suspects -- Adam Jones and Matt Wieters and such. But there are three others who have helped transform this team into a contender. One is Chris Davis, who's successfully swapped bodies with Josh Hamilton to get from failed prospect to elite slugger (hitting .327/.425/.673 will do quite nicely, thank you very much). The second is Nate McLouth, whose career was once as dead as the 2013 Blue Jays; yet he's now the leadoff hitter for this offense against right-handers. Somehow he's hitting .313/.411/.490 with nine steals and, most amazingly, 16 walks against just 10 strikeouts.
The third is the most important, and also one of the most overlooked young superstars in baseball. Manny Machado has been largely overshadowed by the Trout-and-Harper Mania. But this guy joined the Orioles in the middle of their playoff push last summer without a single game of Triple-A experience, having to transition from his natural position of shortstop over to third base in order to accommodate J.J. Hardy. Now he's a 20-year-old shortstop playing Gold Glove defense at third while hitting .311/.350/.508 and holding down the #2-slot in the Orioles order. He's a huge reason why Baltimore is a serious contender for the AL East title.
3. The Los Angeles teams have proven that money doesn't buy happiness. Over the past year or two, the Angels and the Dodgers have spent hundreds of millions of dollars to import superstars to Southern California -- from Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, and C.J. Wilson to Zack Greinke, Carl Crawford, and Adrian Gonzalez. It hasn't exactly paid off yet. Both are in fourth place, with a lot of concerns up and down their rosters.
For the Dodgers, the problem is offense. With Hanley Ramirez injured, the non-first-base positions are being held down by a sad troupe of deeply flawed guys who might be good if you rolled them all up into one player: Juan Uribe, Mark Ellis, Jerry Hairston, Justin Sellers, Luis Cruz, and Dee Gordon. Those awful bats are rendering the bottom half of the Dodgers lineup useless. To wit: their current #5 hitter A.J. Ellis has only scored five runs all year despite his excellent .390 on-base-percentage. And two of those runs came from his own homers. That's how ugly this offense is right now, especially with Matt Kemp struggling (.342 slugging percentage ... yowza). Thank goodness Carl Crawford is enjoying a fantastic bounceback season (.311/.383/.495), or else things could be even worse.
At least the Dodgers have Clayton Kershaw starting every fifth day. The other L.A. team is in even worse shape. Thought to be a World Series contender before the season started, it's clear that the Angels don't have the pitching to fulfill that potential, and their hitting might not be good enough to even get them to the playoffs in the first place. Over the past calendar year, Josh Hamilton has hit .253/.321/.494, or essentially 156 games of Delmon Young-like production. He's a major reason why the Angels only rank 15th in the majors in runs scored, which isn't good enough when their pitching staff ranks 28th in ERA. Last year, the Angels fought their way back into contention by calling up Mike Trout and trading for Zack Greinke. Neither of those things are happening this time around. In a division with the Rangers and Athletics, competing with the entire AL East for a wild card spot, the Angels are in a bad place right now and it wouldn't be a shock if manager Mike Scioscia gets fired.
The pitching is still average at best, so the Orioles have just decided to outscore everybody with a suddenly-unrelenting offense. Much of it is fueled by the usual suspects -- Adam Jones and Matt Wieters and such. But there are three others who have helped transform this team into a contender. One is Chris Davis, who's successfully swapped bodies with Josh Hamilton to get from failed prospect to elite slugger (hitting .327/.425/.673 will do quite nicely, thank you very much). The second is Nate McLouth, whose career was once as dead as the 2013 Blue Jays; yet he's now the leadoff hitter for this offense against right-handers. Somehow he's hitting .313/.411/.490 with nine steals and, most amazingly, 16 walks against just 10 strikeouts.
The third is the most important, and also one of the most overlooked young superstars in baseball. Manny Machado has been largely overshadowed by the Trout-and-Harper Mania. But this guy joined the Orioles in the middle of their playoff push last summer without a single game of Triple-A experience, having to transition from his natural position of shortstop over to third base in order to accommodate J.J. Hardy. Now he's a 20-year-old shortstop playing Gold Glove defense at third while hitting .311/.350/.508 and holding down the #2-slot in the Orioles order. He's a huge reason why Baltimore is a serious contender for the AL East title.
3. The Los Angeles teams have proven that money doesn't buy happiness. Over the past year or two, the Angels and the Dodgers have spent hundreds of millions of dollars to import superstars to Southern California -- from Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, and C.J. Wilson to Zack Greinke, Carl Crawford, and Adrian Gonzalez. It hasn't exactly paid off yet. Both are in fourth place, with a lot of concerns up and down their rosters.
For the Dodgers, the problem is offense. With Hanley Ramirez injured, the non-first-base positions are being held down by a sad troupe of deeply flawed guys who might be good if you rolled them all up into one player: Juan Uribe, Mark Ellis, Jerry Hairston, Justin Sellers, Luis Cruz, and Dee Gordon. Those awful bats are rendering the bottom half of the Dodgers lineup useless. To wit: their current #5 hitter A.J. Ellis has only scored five runs all year despite his excellent .390 on-base-percentage. And two of those runs came from his own homers. That's how ugly this offense is right now, especially with Matt Kemp struggling (.342 slugging percentage ... yowza). Thank goodness Carl Crawford is enjoying a fantastic bounceback season (.311/.383/.495), or else things could be even worse.
At least the Dodgers have Clayton Kershaw starting every fifth day. The other L.A. team is in even worse shape. Thought to be a World Series contender before the season started, it's clear that the Angels don't have the pitching to fulfill that potential, and their hitting might not be good enough to even get them to the playoffs in the first place. Over the past calendar year, Josh Hamilton has hit .253/.321/.494, or essentially 156 games of Delmon Young-like production. He's a major reason why the Angels only rank 15th in the majors in runs scored, which isn't good enough when their pitching staff ranks 28th in ERA. Last year, the Angels fought their way back into contention by calling up Mike Trout and trading for Zack Greinke. Neither of those things are happening this time around. In a division with the Rangers and Athletics, competing with the entire AL East for a wild card spot, the Angels are in a bad place right now and it wouldn't be a shock if manager Mike Scioscia gets fired.
4. The Yankees might be better than we thought. A month ago, had you told someone that the Yankees starting lineup in early May would include Jayson Nix, Eduardo Nunez, Chris Stewart, Lyle Overbay, and Vernon Wells, that person would have guaranteed that the Yankees would be a last-place team. That would have been a smart, rational guess.
Yet for some reason, that person also would have been wrong. The Yankees have won 18 of their first 30 games and sit tied for second place in the AL East. And this is with a combined zero at-bats from Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira, and Curtis Granderson, as well as injuries to Kevin Youkilis and Francisco Cervelli. If an injury to Francisco Cervelli deals a harsh blow to your lineup, then you know the offense is desperately seeking help.
Good pitching has basically driven New York's early success, but it's three scrap-heap pickups that have kept the lineup afloat despite the injuries. Against left-handers, Vernon Wells is hitting .333/.383/.595. Against right-handers, Lyle Overbay is hitting .328/.377/.656 and Travis Hafner is hitting .317/.414/.617. They've all suffered against same-handed pitchers, which is a problem because they've all been forced into everyday duty by other injuries. But the Yankees would be absolutely nowhere without these three, who have unexpectedly pummeled whenever they've had the platoon advantage. Oh, and that Robinson Cano fellow has a .972 OPS. He might be an okay player someday.
The Yankees still can't count on making the playoffs, not with all their aging-and-injury question marks. But given the sorry state of their lineup, they could've easily had a Blue Jays-style start to the season and doomed themselves from the beginning. Instead, they've banked 18 wins when their roster was at its weakest. And the impending returns of Granderson, Teixeira, and Youkilis should help relegate the Wells/Overbay/Hafner trio to platoon duty, where they've thrived. This team has kept itself alive, an admirable feat in its own right.
Yet for some reason, that person also would have been wrong. The Yankees have won 18 of their first 30 games and sit tied for second place in the AL East. And this is with a combined zero at-bats from Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira, and Curtis Granderson, as well as injuries to Kevin Youkilis and Francisco Cervelli. If an injury to Francisco Cervelli deals a harsh blow to your lineup, then you know the offense is desperately seeking help.
Good pitching has basically driven New York's early success, but it's three scrap-heap pickups that have kept the lineup afloat despite the injuries. Against left-handers, Vernon Wells is hitting .333/.383/.595. Against right-handers, Lyle Overbay is hitting .328/.377/.656 and Travis Hafner is hitting .317/.414/.617. They've all suffered against same-handed pitchers, which is a problem because they've all been forced into everyday duty by other injuries. But the Yankees would be absolutely nowhere without these three, who have unexpectedly pummeled whenever they've had the platoon advantage. Oh, and that Robinson Cano fellow has a .972 OPS. He might be an okay player someday.
The Yankees still can't count on making the playoffs, not with all their aging-and-injury question marks. But given the sorry state of their lineup, they could've easily had a Blue Jays-style start to the season and doomed themselves from the beginning. Instead, they've banked 18 wins when their roster was at its weakest. And the impending returns of Granderson, Teixeira, and Youkilis should help relegate the Wells/Overbay/Hafner trio to platoon duty, where they've thrived. This team has kept itself alive, an admirable feat in its own right.
5. The St. Louis Cardinals could be the best team in baseball. This is certainly not something anyone would have predicted before the season. The Cardinals are 20-11, in first place in the Central Division with the second-best run differential in baseball. Carlos Beltran, Matt Holliday, and Yadier Molina remain a devastatingly effective trio in the heart of that lineup. Most impressively, the team ranks 6th in runs scored and 2nd in ERA across baseball, a testament to its balance.
The key to this early success has been unexpectedly dominant starting pitching. The Cardinals' five starters have combined to pitch to a crazy 2.25 ERA over 192 innings, which would seem to be several rungs above "solid." Jake Westbrook leads the league in ERA at 1.07; heralded rookie Shelby Miller is at 1.96 while striking out over a batter per inning; Adam Wainwright has announced his return to ace-dom by striking out 48 batters and walking just three all season.
On top of all that: the team has skillfully handled adversity in the bullpen, too. Incumbent closer Jason Motte is headed for Tommy John surgery, and his first replacement, Mitchell Boggs, was a disaster. The answer? Previously-unknown Edward Mujica has taken over the role with surprising ease. A year ago he was a middle reliever toiling away for the Marlins; now he's converted eight save opportunities for the team with the best record in the National League. Without Motte, or Chris Carpenter, or Albert Pujols, St. Louis is yet again a World Series contender. These Cardinals seem to know what they're doing.
The key to this early success has been unexpectedly dominant starting pitching. The Cardinals' five starters have combined to pitch to a crazy 2.25 ERA over 192 innings, which would seem to be several rungs above "solid." Jake Westbrook leads the league in ERA at 1.07; heralded rookie Shelby Miller is at 1.96 while striking out over a batter per inning; Adam Wainwright has announced his return to ace-dom by striking out 48 batters and walking just three all season.
On top of all that: the team has skillfully handled adversity in the bullpen, too. Incumbent closer Jason Motte is headed for Tommy John surgery, and his first replacement, Mitchell Boggs, was a disaster. The answer? Previously-unknown Edward Mujica has taken over the role with surprising ease. A year ago he was a middle reliever toiling away for the Marlins; now he's converted eight save opportunities for the team with the best record in the National League. Without Motte, or Chris Carpenter, or Albert Pujols, St. Louis is yet again a World Series contender. These Cardinals seem to know what they're doing.
