Can Wichita State Run The Table?

With more than half of the college basketball season in the books, only three teams have managed to navigate their schedules without suffering a loss thus far. The first two are Arizona and Syracuse, national title contenders from major conferences with future NBA players on their rosters. But neither of those blue-chip programs has nearly as good a chance of completing an undefeated season as the third school in this group: the 19-0 Wichita State Shockers.

The undefeated regular season hasn't been achieved since Saint Joseph's did it in 2004; if your definition of 'regular season' also includes conference tournaments, then UNLV was the last to pull it off in 1991. Those are the only two instances of undefeated seasons in the last 35 years, which speaks to the difficulty of winning 30-odd college basketball games in a row. But the two teams that did accomplish that feat both did it within minor conferences (Saint Joseph's from the Atlantic 10 and UNLV from the Big West), which is no coincidence given the relatively weaker quality of competition. Wichita State, of the Missouri Valley Conference, shares that inherent advantage.

For that reason, it's relatively safe to assume that Arizona and Syracuse are out of the running for a perfect season. Going undefeated on the road in major conferences like the Pac-12 and the ACC is a virtually impossible task nowadays. Syracuse still has to face away games at Pittsburgh, Virginia, and Florida State, along with two matchups against Duke. Arizona has a slightly easier path, but still faces four games against the league's second- and third- best teams (Cal and Oregon) as well as a tricky road trip to the Rocky Mountains (for Colorado and Utah). The odds of either team escaping league play without a loss are extremely slim, and that's not even taking conference tournaments into account.

Wichita State, on the other hand, has the benefit of the following schedule:

at Illinois State

at Drake

Loyola

Evansville

at Indiana State

at Northern Iowa

Southern Illinois

at Evansville

at Loyola

Drake

at Bradley

Missouri State

Those twelve games will be followed by three more in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. Odds are Wichita State won't beat all 15 of those opponents. But at the same time, the Shockers will be heavily favored against every single one of them. They've already played six league games and won five of them by 14 points or more. Their toughest remaining opponent is Indiana State, a team they pounded by 20 points just a few days ago. The chances of a perfect season are better than you think.

Yet maybe the most interesting question here isn't whether or not Wichita State can pull this off. Instead, it's "what happens if they do?" If their record is 34-0 when Selection Sunday rolls around, are they a legitimate candidate to receive a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament? On one hand, Wichita State's body of work isn't strong enough to deserve a top seed. The usually-solid teams they beat during the nonconference portion of the schedule have underperformed this season (like BYU and Davidson), deflating the value of those victories. And the quality of competition within the Missouri Valley is weak (it ranks as just the 11th-best conference according to RPI). Based strictly on résumé, it's hard to come up with an argument that justifies putting Wichita State on the top line even if the Shockers go undefeated. A decent comparison is the Murray State team from two years ago, which went into February undefeated and only lost one game during the regular season yet still ended up with a #6 seed thanks to a dearth of quality wins.

But even if Wichita State isn't technically deserving of a top seed, we still can't deny what we already know about this team. Regardless of what schools it has or hasn't beaten, it isn't an unknown quantity. Four of the team's five starters played at least 20 minutes in a tightly-contested Final Four game against eventual national champion Louisville less than a year ago. This season, the Shockers have defeated two SEC teams (Alabama on the road and Tennessee at home), as well as a nationally-ranked frontrunner in the Atlantic 10 (Saint Louis, on the road). Nine players on the roster are averaging double-digit minutes per game. Their three leading scorers are all averaging at least 13 points per game with efficient shooting numbers. Point guard Fred VanVleet is shooting 45% from three-point range and owns one of the best assist-to-turnover rates in the country. All told, the Shockers are a top-25 team nationally in terms of both offensive and defensive efficiency, and only five other teams can make that same claim: Arizona, Syracuse, Michigan State, Pittsburgh, and Villanova. Regardless of whether or not they complete the rare undefeated season or earn a #1 seed, come March, Wichita State will be a serious contender to reach a second consecutive Final Four.