1. ARIZONA (19-0): The sorry Pac-12 seems content to simply roll out the red carpet for Arizona. Oregon, which went into January undefeated, has collapsed by losing five in a row. Colorado's best player tore his ACL and will miss the rest of the season. Cal and UCLA have done little of note. Fortunately, Arizona already beefed up its NCAA Tournament résumé during nonconference play by defeating Duke, San Diego State, and Michigan, all away from home. The Wildcats are already a lock for a #1 seed, and it's not even February yet.
2. KANSAS (14-4): Ranking a four-loss Kansas team ahead of undefeated Syracuse has more to do with the bigger picture than just win-loss records. Kansas is simply the most talented team in the country. There's even a chance that this team will produce the top two picks in the NBA draft, much like Kentucky did in their national championship season with Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. After playing the most grueling nonconference schedule in the country, Kansas has now won five consecutive Big 12 games against teams that are all projected to make the NCAA Tournament: Oklahoma, Kansas State, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, and Baylor. And Sportsbook already lists Kansas as the favorite to win the championship, even ahead of Arizona.
3. SYRACUSE (18-0): Their only blemish is the fact that they've played just three true road games: against St. John's, Virginia Tech, and Boston College. The real tests will come during the final month of the season, when the Orange will travel to Pittsburgh, Duke, Virginia, and Florida State.
4. LOUISVILLE (17-3): Like Kansas, this aggressive Louisville ranking requires a little faith. The Cardinals have played a surprisingly weak schedule thanks to the end of the Big East; the new American Athletic Conference offers far fewer opportunities for signature victories. In fact, their win over Connecticut this week was perhaps their first victory against a team with a good chance to be in the NCAA Tournament. But at the same time, several significant pieces from last year's championship team are still around: Russ Smith, Luke Hancock, Montrezl Harrell, Wayne Blackshear, and of course, Rick Pitino. The defense is still elite. On Wednesday, Louisville was without its point guard for a road game at South Florida, and still won by the lopsided score of 86-47. How many teams could pull that off?
5. MICHIGAN STATE (18-1): Maybe the biggest wildcard in the top ten. When healthy, the Spartans could be the best team in the country. But they're never healthy. Adreian Payne and Gary Harris have missed games at different points this season, and now Branden Dawson will be out for a month after channeling the spirit of Kevin Brown and breaking a bone in his hand by slamming it on a table. It could be a while before Michigan State is back to full strength, and the Big 10 schedule is about to get rough, starting with a home game against streaking Michigan this weekend.
6. WICHITA STATE (20-0): On Wednesday, they were trailing by three at halftime at Illinois State. Then the Shockers won the second half by a 45-27 margin. Not much else to say at this point -- Wichita State will probably lose a game somewhere along the line, but you'll lose money by betting against them.
7. FLORIDA (16-2): One of Florida's two losses was at Wisconsin back on November 12th; the other came at the hands of a fluky buzzer-beater at Connecticut. Since that second defeat, they've beaten Kansas and won ten games in a row. Florida is so consistently good every year that it's almost a little boring. Blame the terrible SEC, which is yet again the usual two-horse race between the Gators and Kentucky.
8. SAN DIEGO STATE (17-1): On November 12th, the second game of the season, San Diego State lost at home to Arizona. They haven't lost since. Over that stretch, the Aztecs have won 16 consecutive games, including a victory at Kansas. They've become what Ohio State wanted to be: an elite defensive and rebounding team that scrapes together enough offense to beat everyone they play.
9. KENTUCKY (14-4): The fatal flaw has become obvious. Andrew Harrison is only shooting 38% from the floor. Aaron Harrison -- the "shooting" guard -- is making 30% of his three-pointers. James Young has taken 120 threes this season but makes just a third of them. Kentucky has more than enough talent to win a championship. They just can't shoot.
10. CREIGHTON (16-3): The exact opposite of Kentucky. All Creighton can do is shoot, and they do it better than anybody. Four players in their starting lineup shoot 44% or better from three-point range, led by 6-foot-7 "center" Ethan Wragge at 50%. That percentage is no small-sample-size fluke: of Wragge's 154 shot attempts this season, 148 have come from three-point range. But the best offense in the country owes most of its success to National Player of the Year favorite Doug McDermott, who's going to be the first three-time First-Team All-American since Patrick Ewing. He's averaging almost 25 points per game and shooting 50% from the field, 44% from beyond the arc, and 90% from the line. Yet despite all this, Creighton wasn't even ranked last week in either of the major top-25 polls. That ought to be addressed.
Key Game to Watch this Weekend:
#21 Michigan at #3 Michigan State, 7:00 PM Saturday
A month ago, Michigan looked dead in the water. The Wolverines started the season with four losses in their first 10 games and Mitch McGary was forced to undergo season-ending back surgery. But since a home loss to Arizona on December 14th, Michigan has won eight in a row, including victories over Wisconsin (#3 in the country at the time) and Iowa (#10) to preserve a perfect 6-0 record in the Big 10. Nik Stauskas is doing a pretty good McDermott impression, scoring 18.5 points per game and shooting 49% from the field, including 44% from three-point range. Michigan State will be vulnerable on Saturday with Branden Dawson and potentially Adreian Payne unable to play. Michigan will have a perfect opportunity to steal a road game against a top-three team and claim sole possession of first place in the Big 10.
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