Monday, April 23, 2012

MLB Season Preview: San Francisco Giants

The Giants have the most imbalanced roster in baseball: superb pitching backed by an inept offense.

You Know Your Offense Sucks When:
your best hitter is nicknamed 'Kung Fu Panda.'
Offense: Two-thirds of the Giants' starting lineup will be nearly useless at the plate. In the outfield, Aubrey Huff and Angel Pagan each failed to OPS above .700 last season. With Freddy Sanchez hurt again, the middle infielders--Brandon Crawford, Emmanuel Burriss, and Ryan Theriot--are dismal. Huff, Pagan, Crawford, Burriss, and Theriot are all below league average offensively, meaning that five Jason Bays would score more runs than that quintet. The only measure taken by the front office to improve the offense was bringing in Melky Cabrera, who should be the team's third-best offensive player (that says something). Fortunately, the Giants have Pablo Sandoval at third and a healthy Buster Posey. Posey will get the occasional start at first base to stay fresh; when he's not there, a platoon of Brett Pill and Brandon Belt will be.

No team in baseball has a pair of 27-year-old aces
that can match the Matt Cain-Tim Lincecum duo.
Pitching: The Giants have failed in their pursuit of hitters, but the organization excels at developing pitching. Tim Lincecum's peripherals are very strong in the early goings even as he's suffered through a rough few starts and a consistent drop in velocity. The ace of the staff could actually be Matt Cain now. The Giants gave Cain the biggest contract for a right-handed pitcher since Kevin Brown and he's earned it as one of the game's most consistent and durable arms. The two aces may soon be joined by a third one, left-hander Madison Bumgarner, who recently got his own extension after pitching to a 3.21 ERA as a 21-year-old in 2011. Last season's unlikely star Ryan Vogelsong is the fourth starter, and the crippling contract of Barry Zito rounds out the rotation. The bullpen lost Brian Wilson for the season, but this unit might not even miss a beat. Sergio Romo, the likely new closer, was actually better than Wilson last year, and he's helped by other elite arms like Javier Lopez, Santiago Casilla, and Jeremy Affeldt. The Giants will have no problems preventing runs. Scoring them is the problem.

Brandon Belt is a good young hitter,
so naturally the Giants hate him.
Breakout Candidates: The Giants have steadfastly refused to give Brandon Belt a real chance at securing regular at-bats. Belt has done nothing but rake against minor league pitching for the last two years. He has the chance to develop into an impact bat for a franchise in sore need of offense. But stubborn manager Bruce Bochy usually keeps Belt on the bench, especially against lefties. So the real breakout candidate is Madison Bumgarner, who would've been a Cy Young candidate last year had it not been for a dismal April. He'll be one of the NL's best pitchers if he stays consistent all season.

3 Key Questions: What kind of hitter will post-injury Buster Posey be? Does Belt get a chance to play everyday? And should the Giants be worried about Lincecum's velocity?

Best Case Scenario: Posey stays healthy and productive, Belt wins the first base job, the pitching staff leads the majors in ERA, and the Giants win another championship after a midseason trade for a bat.

Worst Case Scenario: Posey struggles, Lincecum falls off a cliff, Vogelsong's 2011 proves to be a fluke, Belt offers nothing, and a limp offense can't get the Giants out of fourth place.

Predicted Finish: The Giants are like a watered-down version of the Phillies. And though they play in the NL West, they still have to contend with formidable divisional foes. The talented D'backs and the scorching Dodgers should keep San Francisco in third place.

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