In a shocking and disappointing development, MLB's hits leader and All-Star Game MVP Melky Cabrera was slapped with a 50-game suspension for testing positive for a performance-enhancing drug. A heftier version of Cabrera was cut by the Atlanta Braves less than two years ago, but the slimmer model was enjoying a career year in 2012 by hitting .346 with a .516 slugging percentage for the San Francisco Giants.
It's tempting to write off most of Cabrera's newfound stardom as artificial, thanks to the drugs. Prominent baseball writer Jon "Actually Has a Hall of Fame Vote" Heyman has no trouble doing so, in an article for CBS Sports.com entitled "Melky was having a great season, until the day we found out it was all one big fraud." A quick excerpt:
"Maybe Melky's numbers are nothing but a mirage, anyway.
Maybe he really isn't a .346 hitter on a level playing field. Maybe he doesn't have 11 home runs playing home games in a big ballpark, or 60 RBI. Or even 13 stolen bases.
Maybe he doesn't have anywhere near those numbers without the extra help.
Maybe Melky isn't the All-Star Game MVP without the artificial boost. Maybe he doesn't even get to the All-Star Game.
Maybe he is just another guy on a level playing field. Maybe he's the guy who was the flabby, below average player he was in Atlanta. Or maybe's just the decent but clutch guy he was with the Yankees.
Maybe Melky has regrets about the drugs. But maybe he doesn't. We'll never know for sure, because who'd believe him, anyway?
Maybe Melky knew he needed the lift to become the player he appeared to be. If that's the case, maybe Melky understood the risk, took his shot and enjoyed several moments in the sun, including one in Kansas City that's eminently regrettable to all those who witnessed it now.
His career turnaround seemed too good to be true. And so it was."
It's so easy to write stuff like this. It's so easy to use the positive drug test to explain away Melky's seemingly-out-of-nowhere dominance that rational people couldn't explain. But it's lazy. It makes it seem like all "too good to be true" career turnarounds--like, say, Josh Hamilton a few years ago, or A.J. Burnett now--are drug-fueled, because they couldn't possibly happen otherwise. Melky couldn't possibly have anything to do with his own success story. He can't possibly be talented enough or dedicated enough to turn his career around on his own accord. IT WAS ALL THE DRUGS GUYS, DON'T WORRY WE FIGURED IT OUT.
This is in no way to defend what Melky Cabrera did. He admitted to using a banned substance and earned every game of his suspension. What's bothersome is the assumption that players once thought of as "bad" or "lazy" or "fat" who go on to have big years are automatically on steroids. Check this out:
Melky Cabrera's OPS, 2006-2010: .709
Melky Cabrera's OPS, 2011-2012: .849
Percent Increase: 20%
Mystery Player's OPS, 2006-2010: .808
Mystery Player's OPS, 2011-2012: 1.009
Percent Increase: 20%
That mystery player experienced a very similar career turnaround over the same time frame. That player finished second in the MVP vote last year. That player is Matt Kemp.
Not to suggest that Kemp used drugs, too. This just shows that it's possible for someone to experience a Melky-like renaissance without artificial help. It doesn't have to be "too good to be true."
That's Part One of the Melky Debate. Part Two involves which of Cabrera's statistical improvements, exactly, can be attributed to performance-enhancing drugs. Like, sure, he's hitting .346, which is far above his career average of .284, and his slugging percentage is 100 points higher than his career average. But specifically, what is fueling those increases?
It's pretty clear: luck. Cabrera's batting average on balls in play (a statistic notoriously dependent on random chance) is inflated at .379, above his career average of .309. Almost every other one of Melky's statistical indicators have held steady compared to his career norms. He's striking out in 12.6% of his appearances and walking in 7.2% of them; his career numbers in those categories are 12.1% and 7.1%, respectively. His line-drive percentage is 21.8% (career: 19.7%). His groundballs are only slightly up and his fly balls are only slightly down, which probably explains his higher batting average and batting average on balls in play. The sole significant statistical difference is the percentage of his fly balls that become home runs. His career number is 7.3% but that's up to 10.7% this season. It could be argued that the testosterone gave him the extra "oomph" to put a few more fly balls into the bleachers, which would throw some suspicion on his power numbers. Yet even then, his 11 homers don't seem out of place; he hit 18 last year, and had 13 in 2009.
Cabrera is pretty much the same player he's always been. He's simply in shape, running faster, and apparently making a conscious effort to hit the ball on the ground more. All of those things, plus a little luck, have combined to pump up his average to a career high .346. Yeah, the testosterone might have helped rebuild his body and/or inflate his performance. It's just impossible to pinpoint where, or by how much. That fact makes Heyman's bold-faced, character-assassinating accusations impossible to prove. So why make them in the first place?
Call Melky Cabrera a cheater if you so desire. He cheated. And it's a bummer. But don't call him a mirage or a hoax. The numbers don't lie: he's still the same old Melky.
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