Stop Talking Up the Tigers, And Other Tidbits

• There's something about the Detroit Tigers that has everyone all in a tizzy. They're ranked #1 in the Power Rankings for ESPN.com, FoxSports.com, and CBSSports.com. That last website has accompanied Detrot's ranking with this bit of sickening hyperbole:
  
  1. Tigers. Evidently the Doug Fister injury was just to give everyone else a chance to stay close.
  
  The Tigers do have the best chance of making the postseason out of all 30 teams, given their weak division. However, they are not the best team in baseball. They have three legitimate stars that cloud everyone's judgment: Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera, and Prince Fielder. But for the Tigers to win 96 games last season, they needed remarkably good health (outside of Brennan Boesch) and career seasons (or half-seasons) from Verlander, Cabrera, Victor Martinez (now out for months), Jhonny Peralta, Alex Avila, Delmon Young, Doug Fister, and Jose Valverde.
  
  Every single one of those players (except, well, Cabrera) will experience natural regression to the mean this season (and Martinez will regress all the way to zero, considering he may not suit up until the playoffs). Also, most of the Tigers' rivals in the AL Central will be stronger in 2012 than they were in 2011. Prince Fielder and full seasons from Fister and Young can't possibly make up this gap by themselves. So the question is: can the Tigers make up for the expected regression through improvement in other areas?
  
  That means: if you think the Tigers are the best team in baseball, you are betting on Austin Jackson, Brennan Boesch, Ryan Raburn, Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello, and Drew Smyly. I'm not ready to do that.
  
  If I were ranking the best teams in baseball, the Tigers would likely come in sixth, after the Rangers, Yankees, Rays, Cardinals, and Angels. They're comparable, I think, to the Red Sox and Diamondbacks. Good teams, but not among the best in baseball, like everyone seems to think.
  
  In the words of Charles Barkley: I may be wrong, but I doubt it.
  
  
• While everyone's been fawning over the Tigers, the most impressive team for me has been the Cardinals, and it's not particularly close. Gone are Pujols and LaRussa; Chris Carpenter is out indefinitely; and Adam Wainwright is coming off Tommy John surgery. None of it has mattered in their 5-2 start. Their offensive stars so far:
  
  David Freese: .429/.448/.750, 3 HR, 10 RBIs
  Lance Berkman: .375/.565/.625, 6 BBs
  Carlos Beltran: .320/.393/.680, 3 HR
  Rafael Furcal: .407/.467/.593
  Yadier Molina: .304/.385/.739
  
  Freese looks like a star. Beltran looks like a steal. The Cardinals have the best offense in the National League, and the starting pitching has been impressive even without Carpenter. They look like the favorites in a muddled National League.

• What are the Reds doing with Aroldis Chapman? They're clearly in win-now mode given the Votto and Phillips extensions, but the highest-ceiling pitcher on the roster is wasting away in middle relief. He seemed to put his command issues behind him during an outstanding spring, yet he was still bumped to the bullpen in favor of the relic formerly known as Bronson Arroyo. He struck out five Cardinals in two scoreless innings on Wednesday. When will he get another chance at starting? There's no in-between for Dusty Baker: either he's pushing Mark Prior to 130 pitches per start, or he's limiting Aroldis Chapman to five innings a week out of the pen.

• The team with the worst ERA in the National League? The Giants. Even after Barry Freaking Zito threw a complete-game shutout against the Rockies at Coors Field. The main culprit here is Tim Lincecum, who has been brutally shelled early on. His fastball has averaged under 91 mph, and he hasn't located it well, either. Given how miserable San Francisco's offense is (gotta love that Emmanuel Burriss/Brandon Crawford double-play combo), there's no way the Giants make the playoffs without Lincecum at his best.

• Johnny Damon signed with the Cleveland Indians, and his contract allows him to opt out on a specified date after Grady Sizemore returns. If he wasn't already perceived as a mercenary looking to bolster his Cooperstown chances with a few extra hits, he must be now.