Saturday, March 31, 2012

MLB Season Preview: Los Angeles Angels [of Anaheim]

With their sights set on regaining control of the AL West, the Angels added the top hitter and top pitcher available on the free agent market to an already-solid roster.

Say hello to the new face of the franchise.
Offense: The Angels addressed their lack of an impact hitter by inking Albert Pujols to a huge contract. He transforms their entire lineup--which is a good thing, because it was in desperate need of transforming. Erick Aybar and Howie Kendrick are solid top-of-the-order middle infielders with speed, but their career OBPs are .319 and .329 respectively. And there's not much behind Pujols either. Torii Hunter's offense looked better when it was coming from a Gold Glove center fielder; he's 36 years old now, too. Vernon Wells will be paid wheelbarrows of money to put up a triple-slash line that could easily match last year's atrocity (.218/.248/.412). Mark Trumbo, an OBP black hole with big power, has been rendered position-less, so he'll try to fake it at third base. At least Chris Iannetta provides an upgrade over the immortal Jeff Mathis at catcher. With so few solid options behind Pujols, the most important development of the Angels' season will be the recovery of Kendrys Morales from a broken leg that cost him much of the past two years. If Morales can approach the .306/.355/.569 line he put up in 2009, and thus protect Pujols in the lineup, the Angels will be in much better shape. A healthy Morales at DH also makes Bobby Abreu a trade candidate, which might be best for everyone involved.

The West Coast response to Halladay, Lee, and Hamels?
Weaver, Haren, Wilson, and Santana.
Pitching: The Rays and Yankees may have the Angels bested when it comes to pitching depth, but no American League team can match L.A.'s top four arms. Jered Weaver would have won the Cy Young award had it not been for some guy named Justin. Even allowing for some regression, he'll still be a durable and high-quality ace. Dan Haren is the best pitcher no one ever talks about; in 2011 he threw 238 innings with a 3.17 ERA and 1.02 WHIP, and only Roy Halladay bested his K/BB ratio. The Angels lured the Rangers' ace, C.J. Wilson, away from Texas to be their third starter, and Ervin Santana has posted two consecutive seasons of 220+ innings and a sub-4.00 ERA. With this group, it doesn't really matter if the fifth starter is journeyman Jerome Williams, prospect Garrett Richards, or perhaps eventually Roy Oswalt. The Angels may not have the depth to withstand a major injury, but right now their rotation appears to be the AL's best. The bullpen could be a bit volatile outside of dominant lefty setup man Scott Downs, since rookie closer Jordan Walden walked nearly 4 batters per nine innings last year. Veterans LaTroy Hawkins and Jason Isringhausen will try to provide stability.

No, this was one of the few catches
Peter Bourjos could not make.
Breakout Candidates: Outside of Pujols, the best position player in the organization might be Mike Trout, a five-tool center fielder ranked as one of the three best prospects in baseball. But he'll start the year in Triple A, and given the amount of money owed to Hunter and Wells, his big league opportunities seem limited at the moment. The more likely breakout candidate might be incumbent center fielder Peter Bourjos. He provides elite defense and speed, and could improve upon the 12 homers and .271 average he provided last year.

3 Key Questions: How will Morales recover from his injury? Will the hitters around Pujols make opposing pitchers pay often enough for pitching around the prolific slugger? And how many at-bats will be wasted on Vernon Wells before Mike Trout gets his shot?

Best Case Scenario: The pitching is dominant, Morales recovers fully and hits like Miguel Cabrera, Trout takes the left field job away from Wells, Trumbo can handle third base, and Pujols wins the MVP en route to a World Series title.

Worst Case Scenario: Morales isn't the same after the injury, Wells gets 500+ at-bats again, Trout doesn't sniff the majors, Trumbo is a butcher at third, no one pitches to Pujols, and the pitching isn't enough to win the Angels a playoff spot in the cutthroat American League.

Predicted Finish: The Angels finished 10 games behind Texas last season, and Pujols and Wilson could close that gap by themselves. It should be a tight race, but the Rangers' offense is far superior and their pitching is more capable of withstanding multiple injuries. L.A. finishes second, barely missing the playoffs in Year One of Albert.

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