Saturday, July 28, 2012

Go West, Young Man

On Friday evening, the Los Angeles Angels acquired 28-year-old ace Zack Greinke from the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for three of their top prospects. Greinke is a free agent after the season, so without a contract extension, the move is only about 2012 for the Angels. What this means for each of the parties involved:

The Angels: they likely would've made the playoffs without Greinke: since starting the season 18-25, eight games back of the Rangers, the Angels have gone 37-20 to pull within four games of the AL West lead. No, acquiring Greinke isn't about the wild card. It's about the division. A third ace won't do you any good if you're subject to the randomness of the one-game wild card playoff. Therefore, getting Greinke is about avoiding that nightmarish scenario and setting the Angels up for a longer, more favorable playoff series in which their opponents must deal with Jered Weaver twice, C.J. Wilson, and Greinke. With a trio like that, the Angels would be favored in any five- or seven-game playoff series. In a one-game playoff series, no one can be favored. That's what LA--in full win-now mode--wants to avoid at all costs.

The Angels' rotation: now composed of Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson, Zack Greinke, Dan Haren, and one of several fifth starter candidates. This is the best rotation the American League has seen in many many years.

The Angels' farm system: General Manager Jerry DiPoto did well in trading for Greinke without giving up pieces that are helping the Angels win this year. That would be players like speedy center fielder Peter Bourjos and fifth starter/bullpen candidate Garrett Richards. Instead, DiPoto gave up major-league-ready infield prospect Jean Segura and two high-ceiling Double-A hurlers, Ariel Pena and John Hellweg. That completely decimates the Angels' farm system, but like the Detroit Tigers, the Angels rightly shouldn't be worried about that given the level of investment in the major league roster.

The Brewers: throwing up the white flag on 2012, and possibly 2013 too. At least they got good value for their ace, and Greinke was a huge part of the best season in Brewers' history.

Zack Greinke: the only hesitation teams have about Greinke is his ability to perform on a big stage. In LA, he gets a chance to prove himself in a major market, during a pennant chase and potential playoff run. If he performs well, he'll make himself tens of millions of extra dollars during free agency, with the Angels or elsewhere.

The Rangers: uh-oh. They lost one Colby Lewis, and the Angels gained one Zack Greinke. The worst-case scenario for the first-place team in the AL West. Right now, Texas' ideal rotation consists of Matt Harrison, whichever version of Yu Darvish chooses to show up, Roy Oswalt's balky back, the rehabbing Neftali Feliz, and Derek Holland. That doesn't come close to sniffing Weaver-Wilson-Greinke-Haren, and it's not better than what Oakland currently has, either. Without a trade of their own (Josh Johnson? James Shields?) the Rangers are in danger of losing the AL West to the Angels.

The Athletics, White Sox, Orioles, Rays, Red Sox, Indians, etc: the rest of the American League wild card contenders are probably dismayed by the Greinke trade, because the Angels have just sewn up one of their two available playoff spots. If any of these teams has an inside track on that last berth, it's the White Sox. In the last month of the season, when the AL East is pummeling itself and the A's are playing the Angels and Rangers, the White Sox get to feast on the weak AL Central. Look for Chicago to act on that advantage and make a trade or two before Tuesday's deadline.

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