Sunday, April 29, 2012

Why the Angels are in Trouble

The Angels' problems run much deeper
than an Albert Pujols slump.
On Sunday, the Los Angeles Angels could only scrape three hits off of Derek Lowe and the Indians, losing 4-0 to drop their record to 7-15. Albert Pujols has no home runs, while Ervin Santana has already surrendered 10. The offense has been terrible, the bullpen even worse. Rather stunningly, they're already 9 games back of Texas in the AL West standings after only a month. Things will get better; the Angels' roster is too talented to win just 32% of its games. But the dirty little secret is that even when things normalize, the Angels might not be a playoff team. Which means that team management seriously miscalculated the state of the franchise this offseason when they signed Pujols to his megadeal.

The Angels would not have inked Pujols to that monstrous 10-year deal (at age 32!) unless they felt he could help them win a World Series within the next few seasons. Which means that GM Jerry Dipoto looked at his roster this offseason and said, "We're basically one big piece away being a championship-caliber team." When it came to his starting rotation, he was right: he has three legitimate aces in Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, and C.J. Wilson. But the rest of the roster? Not even close. His outfield includes Vernon Wells and Torii Hunter, two very expensive and declining players. His two top-of-the-lineup middle infielders struggle to perform their most critical task: get on base. His best offensive player outside of Pujols is playing his first month of baseball since early-2010. His second-best offensive player, Mark Trumbo, doesn't really have a position. His bullpen relies heavily on Jason Isringhausen, LaTroy Hawkins, Kevin Jepsen, and Hisanori Takahashi. The Angels aren't a particularly well-built team, and they certainly weren't one Albert Pujols away from a championship. This would still be true even if Pujols was hitting .400 with nine homers and 20 RBIs right now.

The Angels thought it would be a neat idea to pay
Vernon Wells lots of cash to play baseball poorly.
What should the Angels have done instead of signing Pujols? Given the many question marks on this roster, the new front office should have used 2012 as an evaluative year. Is Kendrys Morales healthy, and is he our long-term first baseman? Can Mark Trumbo play another position, or is he stuck at 1B/DH? Does Vernon Wells have anything left, or should we just bite the bullet and release him? Are Chris Iannetta, Howie Kendrick, and Erick Aybar worthy of extensions, or are they replaceable at a cheaper cost? Is Mike Trout ready to play everyday? What can we do to fix our bullpen? The Angels have been forced to solve these questions on the fly while trying to compete for a championship. Not easy, or wise.

Mike Napoli, Former Angel.
Had the Angels used 2012 to figure out their roster issues, they would be in much better shape to focus on a championship in 2013, when most of their core players are still under contract and the salaries of Bobby Abreu and Torii Hunter come off the books (a combined $27 million). The front office could've used that money, plus the savings from not signing Pujols, to pursue a major free agent or two to fill the long-term needs they've spent a year identifying; the list of potential targets includes Josh Hamilton, Mike Napoli (ironically), Cole Hamels, and Zack Greinke. The result would be a far more balanced and complete team.

But instead of spending this time to reshape the roster, evaluate young talent, and cut the fat, the Angels are frantically trying to patch the gaping holes that a $150 million team shouldn't have in the first place. And given ownership's recent spending frenzy, there won't be another round of pricey free agent signings arriving on white horses next season, not with $120 million already committed to just 10 players in 2013. The Angels' problems extend far beyond a rough stretch in April.

Meanwhile, the Rangers are running away with the division. Matt Kemp and the Dodgers are stealing the L.A. spotlight. Albert Pujols isn't getting any younger. Yes, it's too soon to panic. But the Angels need to start winning soon, before they have to start answering some tough questions.

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