MLB Season Preview: Baltimore Orioles

The rebuilding Orioles, stuck in a powerhouse division, will be hard-pressed to avoid another last-place finish in 2012.

Adam Jones is young, fast, and strong, but if you ask him
to take a walk, he gets upset and storms off.

Offense: There are a few useful position players on the roster, but how many of them will be on the next winning Orioles team? The best candidate is catcher Matt Wieters, who was once hyped as "Joe Mauer with power." Despite failing to live up to those lofty expectations so far, he quietly hit 22 home runs last season and he's just entering his third full season. Elsewhere: Adam Jones' fine power/speed numbers are weighed down by the fact that he's never walked more than 36 times in a single season. Nick Markakis, once thought to be another building block, has been in steady decline over the past three seasons. The rest of the lineup is mostly filled with veterans ranging from useful (J.J. Hardy, Mark Reynolds) to past-their-prime (Brian Roberts) to midseason-trade-fodder (Endy Chavez, Wilson Betemit). Anyone not named Wieters is in danger of being dealt at any point this season.

If you've got a young pitcher you want ruined,
the O's can take of that for you.

Pitching: No organization is quite as adept as the Orioles are at ruining young pitchers. Once upon a time, Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, Zach Britton, and Jake Arrieta were supposed to be the core of Baltimore's rebuilding project. They haven't shown much promise in the majors yet, though it's too soon to declare them busts. The Orioles' best starter, Jeremy Guthrie, was dealt to Colorado, so they're left with Jason Hammel and Tommy Hunter as their most "established" options. Soft-throwing Japanese imports Wei-Yin Chen and Tsuyoshi Wada are more intriguing low-risk options. The Orioles had the worst starting rotation in baseball last season, and they might claim that title once again in 2012. The bullpen, which could feature a closing tandem of Jim Johnson and Matt Lindstrom, is hardly spectacular, either.

Wieters has already graced an SI cover (2010).

Breakout Candidates: Matt Wieters could be ready to take another big step towards realizing his potential. He's cut down on his strikeouts while boosting his power numbers, and still only a 25-year-old, he's an excellent post-hype sleeper. Any one of the young pitchers could easily break out, too--it's just that at this point, it would be foolish to bet on any young Orioles pitcher.

3 Key Questions: Will Wieters, Jones, and Markakis be stars or average role players? Which members of the youthful rotation will experience positive growth? And how aggressive will new GM Dan Duquette be in shopping his players at the deadline?

Best Case Scenario: Duquette unloads some of his talent for quality prospects, the arms stay somewhat healthy and effective, Alfredo Simon isn't accused of murder again, and the O's don't lose a hundred games.

Worst Case Scenario: The veterans are either too hurt or too ineffective to bring back anything of value in trades, the young arms continue to break down, and the O's lose 200 games.

Predicted Finish: It would be an upset to see Baltimore finish anywhere other than last place. And the rebuilding process still has a long ways to go; Duquette would be wise to blow everything up and build toward 2014-2015 with a core of Wieters, Manny Machado, and Dylan Bundy. This franchise in a bad place right now.