Among active center-fielders, Matt Kemp owns the most lucrative contract. But who makes the second-most amount of money at the position?
It's not Jacoby Ellsbury, Curtis Granderson, Shane Victorino, or Andrew McCutchen. Thanks to his new six-year, $85.5 million contract with the Baltimore Orioles, it's Adam Jones.
Does Jones deserve to be paid that much? Based on how many Wins Above Replacement he accumulated last season compared to his peers, the answer is no:
Jacoby Ellsbury: 9.4
Matt Kemp: 8.7
Curtis Granderson: 7.0
Shane Victorino: 5.9
Andrew McCutchen: 5.7
Adam Jones: 2.9
Jones is blown out of the water by his competition. In fact, the following players were also more valuable than Jones in center last year, according to WAR: Cameron Maybin, Chris Young, Peter Bourjos, Melky Cabrera, Michael Bourn, Josh Hamilton, and B.J. Upton. Jones was about as valuable in center field as Dexter Fowler was. Does that kind of player really deserve a six-year, $88.5 million extension?
The answer is yes, he does, and it's really a no-brainer.
First of all, Jones' WAR total is unfairly crippled by defensive metrics, which rated him as one of the worst center-fielders in the game last year. That's likely an exaggeration. He won't win any Gold Gloves in center, but he's certainly passable at the position, and his bat is good enough to play in left or right field if a move becomes necessary.
Second: Jones is only 26 years old. Since he was under contract for 2013 anyway, he was basically given an ideal five-year extension that should cover his best statistical years. Jones will be 32 years old on Opening Day, 2018, the final year of the deal. By comparison, Josh Hamilton will sign for more money than Jones this offseason, but he'll turn 32 on May 21st of next year. Unlike most big-money deals, it's hard to envision Jones' contract becoming an albatross.
Third: the biggest criticism of Jones' game is his low walk total. His career OBP is .322, and it was .319 last year when he drew just 29 walks. But this one flaw shouldn't be around too much longer. Patience and plate discipline are skills that actually improve over time as players develop their pitch recognition and selectiveness. And as Jones becomes an even more dangerous hitter, he'll be pitched to more carefully. The walks will come.
Fourth: Jones might be Matt Kemp. He's following his career arc closely:
Kemp 2010: .249/.310/.450, 28 HR, 19 SB
Kemp 2011: .324/.399/.586, 39 HR, 40 SB
Jones 2011: .280/.319/.466, 25 HR, 12 SB
Jones 2012, to date: .310/.353/.594, 14 HR, 7 SB
Jones is on pace to shatter his 2011 numbers, much like Kemp shattered his 2010 numbers last year. Both are hypertalented center-fielders in their mid-20s who came up to the majors at a very young age and took a while to put it all together. The Dodgers needed 10 years and $160 million to lock up Kemp. The O's did the same with Jones at half the price.
And fifth, the O's need this deal desperately. Don't let their hot start fool you: the Orioles are still a bad team. They need impact players. They need a star. They need Adam Jones. With him in the fold, the O's finally have a very tangible foundation coming together. Up the middle, Jones, Matt Wieters, J.J. Hardy, and Robert Andino are all under team control through 2014, which is when uber-prospects Dylan Bundy and Manny Machado should be ready for the big leagues. Suddenly, if one or two of their young pitchers stick, the O's will have a perennial contender again. Hopefully, if that happens, fans can look back at the Adam Jones extension as one of the first building blocks that brought championship baseball back to Baltimore.
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