Picking the Wild Card Winners

Orioles Over Rangers

This pick makes absolutely no sense, for the following reasons:
1) The game is in Texas
2) The Rangers are starting Yu Darvish, who is filthy-good
3) The Orioles are starting Joe Saunders, who is filthy-bad, especially against right-handers
4) The Rangers' lineup is primarily right-handed

But the whole Orioles season doesn't make sense. Why should reason get in the way now?

The O's have a significant strategic advantage over the Rangers because Buck Showalter is a great tactician and Ron Washington is whatever the opposite of a great tactician is. Joe Saunders is probably going to get rocked, and Showalter isn't stupid. At the first sign of trouble, he'll have no qualms about yanking Saunders and handing the game over to his excellent bullpen. From that moment on, the Orioles will have the advantage. In the middle and late innings, the game could come down to pitching changes, pinch-hitters, and platoon advantages, and Showalter will out-maneuver Washington in this department.

If I was Showalter, I would have Saunders start but only pitch to the first three hitters (so his ultimate job is to retire Josh Hamilton). Then I'd bring in Steve Johnson, a right-handed starter, to go a couple innings. Ron Washington will certainly stack his lineup with righties against Saunders, so bringing in Johnson counters that move. It forces Washington to either give up the platoon advantage for the first half of the game, or burn his pinch-hitters early. This should stunt the Rangers' offense. Then Showalter can mix and match with his great bullpen for the final five or six innings.

The point is that Joe Saunders is extremely unlikely to pitch well tonight. But Showalter is the kind of manager who won't be timid about taking him out early if necessary. After all they've done, why pick against the Orioles now?

Orioles advance in a high-scoring, home-run-happy thriller.

Braves Over Cardinals

I give Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez a lot of credit (despite being known as the Ron Washington of the National League) for making two tough lineup decisions in advance of this do-or-die game.

For one, he chose to start the less-proven (but completely dominant) Kris Medlen in this game as opposed to experienced veteran Tim Hudson. A lot of managers would defer to the 'guy who's been there before.' Medlen is the better choice and Gonzalez got it right. In twelve starts this season, his ERA is 0.97. That's insane.

Gonzalez also chose to bench his struggling starting catcher, Brian McCann, in favor of backup David Ross. This would've been considered unthinkable a few months ago. But McCann is struggling through a shoulder injury so Gonzalez is going with the superior defender in what should be a low-scoring affair. A tough decision, but again, the right one.

The Cardinals are starting Kyle Lohse, a right-hander, who has been spectacular this season. He also doesn't have much of a platoon split, so the fact that the Braves are very left-handed won't matter too much. It could, however, matter in the late innings when Lohse is gone. The Cardinals don't have a shutdown left-handed reliever, which will be a problem against Michael Bourn, Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, and switch-hitters Martin Prado and Chipper Jones.

The Braves, on the other hand, have the best reliever in baseball: their closer, Craig Kimbrel. The Cardinals aren't going to score on him. In fact, if Fredi Gonzalez is willing to use Kimbrel for two innings, and Medlen goes seven, the Cardinals will be trying to score against the two most unhittable pitchers in baseball right now. The fact that the Braves also have one of the best defenses in baseball makes them masters of preventing runs.

And the fact that the Braves have Chipper Jones karma...well, that doesn't mean nothing.

Braves advance in a tight affair.