MLB Season Preview: Washington Nationals

Don't look now, but the Washington Nationals have a pretty darn good team.

A healthy Ryan Zimmerman is one of baseball's best players.

Offense: The centerpiece is Ryan Zimmerman, who has the tools to win an MVP if he consolidates all the skills he's previously shown (average, power, elite defense, health) in one season. He's got some help: since joining Washington's lineup in mid-2010, Michael Morse has very quietly hit 46 home runs with 134 RBIs and a .297 average. Jayson Werth isn't worth his ridiculous contract, but he's also not the .232/.330/.389 hitter he was last season (...right?). But after those three, there are some pretty sizable holes. Toolsy middle-infielders Ian Desmond and Danny Espinosa hit at the top of the lineup despite their miserable OBPs (.298 and .323 respectively in 2011). Adam LaRoche, Roger Bernadina, and Rick Ankiel simply aren't everyday players. Catcher Wilson Ramos is a bright spot, especially after his torrid September. But given the lack of proven offensive threats in the lineup, the possible debut of 19-year-old mega-prospect Bryce Harper could be a game-changer.

Talk about hype: the Nats are selling a
new concession called the Strasburger.

Pitching: While the Nationals' lineup has holes, the pitching staff may not. Stephen Strasburg's stats over his first 92 innings are mouth-watering: a 2.54 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 11.3 K/9, and 1.9 BB/9. Those numbers would essentially make him the best pitcher in baseball. The problem is health, and the Nationals will limit his innings following his Tommy John surgery. So the staff ace may be Jordan Zimmermann, another promising young pitcher who was excellent last year (3.18 ERA) and will be entrusted with a full workload. The big additions are Gio Gonzalez, a young ace who struggles with his control at times, and Edwin Jackson, a reliable innings-eater. Ross Detwiler begins the year in the rotation over John Lannan, whose descent from Opening Day starter in 2009 and 2010 to Triple-A is evidence of this team's recent improvements. The bullpen can withstand the March injury to Drew Storen, since Tyler Clippard has become a shutdown reliever, too. The depth was hurt by the Gonzalez trade, but this staff has the most upside in baseball.

Bryce Harper graced the cover of SI
almost three years ago.

Breakout Candidates: Everyone already knows about Strasburg, but rotation-mate Jordan Zimmermann is poised to lead Washington's staff this season. Zimmermann is another year removed from his Tommy John surgery and was once a highly-touted prospect in his own right. Of course, if Bryce Harper reaches the majors, there's little reason to doubt his ability to make an immediate impact.

3 Key Questions: Can Ryan Zimmerman stay healthy and productive? Will Gio Gonzalez be better or worse away from the American League and Oakland's spacious stadium? And will Bryce Harper's debut be more of a media circus than Strasburg's?

Best Case Scenario: Ryan Zimmerman is a beast, Jayson Werth rebounds, Strasburg becomes the game's best pitcher, Harper is the Rookie of the Year, and the Nationals are 2012's most pleasant surprise, winning the NL East.

Worst Case Scenario: Strasburg and Zimmerman get hurt, Harper struggles in the majors, Gio Gonzalez's ERA balloons over 4.00, Michael Morse turns out to be a fluke, Werth sinks deeper, and the Nats finish fourth.

Predicted Finish: I think the Zimmerman(n)s are going to have big years, and Washington will finish north of .500. But those holes in the Nationals' lineup are concerning; so is the fact that three-quarters of their divisional games will be against Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Miami. They may not have enough to win that second wild card this year.