MLB Season Preview: New York Mets

The Mets have instituted record-breaking payroll cuts, and considering the strength of the rest of the NL East, the only drama their fans will experience this season is whether or David Wright gets traded.

"How come Reyes got to leave first?"

Offense: From 2005 to 2008, David Wright hit .311 and averaged 29 homers, 109 RBIs, and 159 games played. From 2009 to 2011, Wright has averaged .284-18-79 in 134 games. His best years may be behind him, he's more injury-prone, and the Mets might be better off trading him. If that were to happen, the lineup's new centerpiece would be first baseman Ike Davis, who was murdering the ball in his first 36 games last year (.302/.383/.543 with 7 HRs) before suffering a season-ending injury. The Mets will also see whether players like Lucas Duda, Daniel Murphy, Josh Thole, and Ruben Tejada are part of the long-term plan. In the outfield, Jason Bay and Andres Torres are close to being corpses. At least the Citi Field fences are finally being moved in.

Johan-sanity?

Pitching: After a year's absence, Johan Santana will be back on the mound on Opening Day. He's nowhere near the same pitcher that dominated the previous decade, but there's no reason why he can't be effective. 37-year-old knuckleball-ing journeyman R.A. Dickey has defied the odds to post ERAs of 2.84 and 3.28 the past two seasons. Mike Pelfrey never took off the way he was expected to and remains a mediocre innings-eater who can't strike anyone out. Dillon Gee was last year's biggest surprise, but there's no way he posts a 13-6 record again if that 1.37 WHIP and minuscule 1.61 K/BB ratio remain constant. The only real upside rests in Jonathon Niese, with whom the Mets are reportedly close to a long-term extension. And anyone receiving guaranteed money from the Wilpons deserves to be noted.

As the Wright/Reyes era comes to
an end, Ike Davis is the future.

Breakout Candidates: If he's over the Valley Fever that plagued him during spring training, Ike Davis should  maintain the momentum from last year's torrid start. Both he and Lucas Duda, who has shown plate discipline and some pop in right field, will benefit from the decision to move the outfield fences in. The advanced peripherals all indicate that Jonathon Niese is poised for his own breakout, too.

3 Key Questions: Is Ike Davis the first baseman of the future? Will Wright finish the year in New York? And if Santana is pitching well midseason, is there any way GM Sandy Alderson can unload him and the $55 million still remaining on his contract?

Best Case Scenario: Davis and Duda put up big-time power numbers, Niese provides hope for the future, Wright is hitting well enough to be traded for some young building blocks, and the Mets actually avoid a last-place finish.

Worst Case Scenario: Davis and Niese flop, Wright and Santana get hurt again before they can be dealt, Dickey and Gee plummet back to earth, the lineup reads like a Triple-A roster, and the Mets finish last with the worst record in baseball.

Predicted Finish: There's a lot of interesting players and storylines to follow here, which should make the Mets watchable. Still, there's too many holes all over the roster for them to finish anywhere other than last in a very strong division.