Tuesday, April 3, 2012

MLB Season Preview: Miami Marlins

New stadium, new logo, new uniforms, new manager, new faces, and a new willingness to spend big bucks: these Marlins are barely recognizable.

He spent all winter whining,
but Hanley is A-OK now.
Offense: It's easy to argue that Miami has the best offense in the NL East. Jose Reyes was the offseason's biggest acquisition, and he's joined atop the lineup by fellow speedster Emilio BonifacioHanley Ramirez, poised to come back strong after a down 2011, fills the hole at third base. Giancarlo Stanton is one of the game's top emerging power threats, having hit 34 homers as a 21-year-old last year. Logan Morrison and Gaby Sanchez are two more young sluggers with their best numbers yet to come. There's not a great deal of depth to withstand a major injury, but on paper, this emerging offense has serious potential.

The Marlins can't win unless
Josh Johnson's shoulder is
screwed on correctly. 
Pitching: The Marlins' season may very well hinge on the health of Josh Johnson. He's a dominant pitcher, as seen by his 2.30 ERA in 2010, but he never pitched past May last year thanks to shoulder problems. Anibal Sanchez's ERA went up to 3.67 last year even though his peripheral stats improved; he's a good bet to improve on that number if he can stay healthy. Luckily, the Marlins added Mark Buehrle, one of the game's most durable pitchers. Ricky Nolasco and Carlos Zambrano compose the unspectacular back of the rotation. The bullpen is actually quite deep, even with Juan Carlos Oviedo (formerly Leo Nunez) suspended and Heath Bell's numbers sure to take a hit.

Known as Mike for his first two seasons,
this prolific slugger now prefers Giancarlo.
Breakout Candidates: While Giancarlo Stanton has already broken out, he could lead the National League in home runs as a 22-year-old, which would be rather impressive. The true breakout candidate is Logan Morrison, who struggled through a controversial 2011 but has the tools to be yet another offensive threat in a dangerous lineup.

3 Key Questions: How many innings will the Marlins get from Josh Johnson? How does Hanley Ramirez handle the move to third? And do the Marlins have the necessary depth to withstand injuries and make a real playoff push?

Best Case Scenario: Stanton and Ramirez are MVP candidates, Reyes stays healthy, Josh Johnson makes 30 starts, Zambrano recaptures some former glory, and the Marlins win the NL East.

Worst Case Scenario: Reyes gets hurt, Johnson makes 10 starts, Ramirez demands a trade, Heath Bell falls apart, Carlos Zambrano gets into a fistfight with Ozzie Guillen, and the Marlins' lack of minor league depth is exposed in their fourth-place finish.

Predicted Finish: The Marlins will improve significantly from last year. However, expecting Reyes to play in 155 games, Johnson to throw 220 innings, and Zambrano to suddenly remember how to pitch again would mean ignoring everything we already know about those players. The Marlins finish in third place and a few games out of a playoff spot.

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