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| My first two picks. Studs. |
Round 1 (#8): 1B Adrian Gonzalez, Red Sox (11 ADP)
Want to know something scary? Over the past two seasons, Gonzalez has hit .298 with 31 homers and .338 with 27 homers...without being fully healthy. Now even further removed from his shoulder surgery, Gonzalez is sure to be a beast in every offensive category.
Round 2 (#13): OF Justin Upton, Diamondbacks (13 ADP)
It's very possible that no baseball player alive has Justin Upton's potential. His triple-slash line last year was .289/.369/.529 with 31 homers and 21 steals. That could be his floor entering 2012, and as a 24-year-old he's not done improving. Most of the top fantasy players are known quantities who have reached their ceiling and have nowhere to go but down; Upton is the one who still has massive upside.
| These mechanics are not advisable. |
Adrian Beltre is, quite simply, money in the bank. He provides average, power, and consistency at a key position. He's the likely cleanup hitter of a potent offense in a friendly ballpark. Usually a healthy player, Beltre appeared in just 124 games last year yet still managed 32 homers and 105 RBIs. And perhaps best of all, walks don't count in fantasy baseball.
Round 4 (#33): OF Andrew McCutchen, Pirates (28 ADP)
McCutchen is already one of baseball's best outfielders, yet it seems like there's even more potential in his bat. His power has steadily increased, but his average and steals took a hit last season (which is the only reason he can be selected so late). Still just 25, his average should bounce back to the .280-range, and he could make a run at a 30-30 season.
Round 5 (#48): SP Zack Greinke, Brewers (46 ADP)
Greinke was terribly unlucky to end up with a 3.83 ERA last year, especially considering his 10.5 K/9 ratio. He's the perfect anchor for any pitching staff--a near-lock to post 200+ innings, 200+ K's, 15 wins, and an ERA around 3.00, with the potential for much more.
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| The only player named Elvis to ever hit a homer in the majors. |
Andrus can be had four rounds after Jose Reyes, yet the only significant fantasy advantage Reyes has is batting average. Plus, Andrus is healthier and younger. No, there's not much power, but he hits at the top of a potent lineup, his average and OBP are trending upwards, and he could steal 40 bases. He's pretty safe for a 23-year-old and there's room for improvement.
Round 7 (#68): SP C.J. Wilson, Angels (66 ADP)
Over the past two years, Wilson's ERA at home (hitter-friendly Arlington) has been 3.70. His road ERA: 2.56. It sure looks like moving from Rangers Ballpark to Angels Stadium will boost his numbers, which is noteworthy because his ERA last year was an already-small 2.94. Long-term, I'd be worried about Wilson's arm falling off. For 2012, I'm buying.
Round 8 (#73): SP Madison Bumgarner, Giants (82 ADP)
After seven rounds of mostly safe drafting, my next five or six picks will be all about upside. Madison Bumgarner has plenty of it: he finished 2011 with a 3.21 ERA and 191 K's in over 200 innings despite a miserable April. His K/BB ratio was bested in the NL only by Halladay, Lee, Kershaw, Greinke, and Hamels. And did I mention he doesn't turn 23 until August? Bumgarner will be considered one of baseball's best left-handed starters sooner rather than later.
Round 9 (#88): OF Shin-Soo Choo, Indians (84 ADP)
In 2009 and 2010, Choo was one of the game's best all-around outfielders, sporting a .300 batting average, 20+ steals and homers, and 85+ runs and RBIs. Then last year, he was hit by a rash of injuries. A ninth-round pick is sure worth the gamble that he returns to pre-2011 form, which would mean an elite, across-the-board contributor to pair with Upton and McCutchen.
Round 10 (#93): SP Adam Wainwright, Cardinals (90 ADP)
Wainwright is a true high-risk, high-reward pick who could either be the steal of the draft or a massive underperformer. He didn't pitch in 2011 following Tommy John surgery, so he might be crippled by poor command. Yet if he regains his form, odds are he returns to being a top ten pitcher. Definitely worthy of a roll of the dice in Round 10.
Round 11 (#108): OF Desmond Jennings, Rays (102 ADP)
Jennings was one of the reasons why the Rays felt comfortable letting Carl Crawford walk, and he may outperform Crawford as soon as this year. Even if his batting average isn't great, he's unafraid to take a walk, so he'll score a ton of runs and steal a ton of bases. He's even got some power.
Round 12 (#113): 2B Howard Kendrick, Angels (104 ADP)
Kendrick is a career .292 hitter who finished 2011 with 18 homers and 14 steals. This season, he'll probably be hitting in front of Albert Pujols. Yes, please.
Round 13 (#128): SP Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals (120 ADP)
Zimmermann was coming off Tommy John surgery last season, yet the 25-year-old still posted a 3.18 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 161.1 innings. Now the kid gloves will come off and he'll be entrusted with a full workload. I love pairing the consistency of Greinke and Wilson with the upside of Bumgarner, Wainwright, and Zimmermann.
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| Dee Gordon, speed demon. |
This is the pick I'm least enthusiastic about, but I'm not crazy about any of the other options in this round, either. Gordon carries a great deal of risk, considering his poor plate discipline, limp bat, and the possibility of demotion if things don't go right. Nevertheless, Gordon's electrifying 2011 debut is tough to ignore. His 24 steals as a rookie projects to 60+ in a full season of at-bats. That is, if he gets on base enough.
Round 15 (#148): SP Cory Luebke, Padres (146 ADP)
When you play in San Diego, your value is drastically underrated since, well, no one knows who you are. After joining the Padres' rotation in June, Luebke had a 3.31 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and 111 K's. Yet no one seems to really care, which is why he's available so late. A steal.
Round 16 (#153): OF Cameron Maybin, Padres (148 ADP)
After disappointing in Florida, Maybin finally broke out with the Padres in 2011, stealing 40 bags. There's no reason not to expect further improvement as he enters his age-25 season. There are far, far worse ways to round out an outfield.
Round 17 (#168): SS/3B/OF Emilio Bonifacio, Marlins (165 ADP)
Besides boasting positional flexibility and a truly awesome name, Bonifacio stole 40 bases with a .296 batting average last season. He could have an even better year in 2012 now that his lineup buddies are Jose Reyes, a healthy Hanley Ramirez, and an emerging Giancarlo Stanton. New manager Ozzie Guillen should allow Bonifacio even more freedom on the basepaths, so 50+ steals is attainable.
Round 18 (#173): SP Brandon Morrow, Blue Jays (171 ADP)
He's an enigma. Morrow has posted a K/9 rate of over 10 in each of the past two seasons, but his ERAs still sit in the mid-4.00s. Even if the breakout refuses to finally arrive, then he's still a lock for 200+ K's at a cheap price. And if he figures it all out, the ceiling is sky-high.
| Yes, Jesus, but can you catch? |
Sure, he'll be playing half his games at Safeco Field. But the guy is a phenomenal hitter. Ballparks shouldn't matter much for him, and he'll be in the middle of the Mariners' lineup (for whatever that's worth). His value gets a huge boost if/when he gains eligibility at catcher.
Round 20 (#193): SP Chris Sale, White Sox (194 ADP)
When it comes to relievers being converted to starters, Neftali Feliz and Daniel Bard get all the attention. Chris Sale is attempting the transition too, and he could be the most successful of the three. He has the repertoire to succeed and he was a starter as recently as 2010. Solid upside here.
Round 21 (#208): 1B Kendrys Morales, Angels (201 ADP)
Picks like Morales can define a fantasy season. He hasn't played in a major league game since breaking his leg in early 2010, so the risk is quite high. But so is the reward: in 2009 he hit .308/.355/.569 with 34 homers and 108 RBIs. You don't usually find this kind of upside so late in the draft.
Round 22 (#213): 1B/OF Lucas Duda, Mets (208 ADP)
Duda had an eye-opening debut in 2011, hitting .292 with 10 home runs. His power potential is boosted by the increased playing time and the more favorable Citi Field fences; he's become one of fantasy baseball's most popular sleepers.
Round 23 (#228): RP Grant Balfour, Athletics (211 ADP)
Since it's so easy to find saves on the waiver wire, it's foolish to draft elite closers not named Mariano, given their volatility. Balfour is solid and will be closing games for the A's. That's a serviceable-enough source of saves.
Round 24 (#233): SP Francisco Liriano (220 ADP)
Everyone knows what Liriano can do when he's on track. His spring numbers were mouth-watering. And he's one of the more exciting (or frustrating) fantasy players to own. I'm buying the lottery ticket.
Round 25 (#248): C Wilson Ramos, Nationals (223)
There's no sense in drafting a catcher earlier than this once the elite ones are off the board. Ramos will be fine, and there's some upside for the 24-year-old considering his strong finish to last season. Plus, if he doesn't work out, Jesus Montero could end up being my catcher anyway.
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