MLB Season Preview: Cleveland Indians

Cleveland's youth movement has turned the Indians into a sleeper team, but they might be another year away from contention.

When it comes to South Korean baseball players,
Shin-Soo Choo is the cream of the crop. In fact,
he's the whole crop.

Offense: The keys here are health and the continued development of young players. Catcher Carlos Santana, the rare Indian who stayed healthy last year, is a rising star who offers impressive power and OBP numbers behind the plate. Shin-Soo Choo was the whole package in 2009 and 2010--he hit for average and power, maintained high OBPs, ran the bases well, and played excellent defense--then fell apart last year after a DUI and a bunch of injuries. The Indians need him to stay healthy and productive. Same goes for Travis Hafner, who remains an excellent hitter when he's on the field, and Grady Sizemore, who's never on the field anymore. The Indians are also expecting more out of second baseman Jason Kipnis (who could break out after a nice 2011 debut), Michael Brantley, and Lonnie Chisenhall (if/when he gets called up). These guys will need to pick up the slack for the shell once known as Grady Sizemore, who will begin the year on the DL, and shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera, who will inevitably come back to earth after last year's anomalous outburst (2007-2010: 18 total HRs; 2011: 25 HRs).  Guys like Jack Hannahan and Casey Kotchman are in the lineup for the defensive help they provide for the Indians' groundball-heavy pitching staff.

2011 Ubaldo could've used a
pep talk from 2010 Ubaldo.

Pitching: After one great half-season in Colorado, Ubaldo Jimenez has dropped off the radar. His stuff has greatly diminished and reports this spring are downright depressing; he may eat innings effectively, but probably won't approach 'ace-hood' again. Instead, Justin Masterson emerged as the rotation's leader last year (3.21 ERA in 216 innings). Derek Lowe was acquired from Atlanta and he might not have much left (5.05 ERA). Roberto Hernandez (The Artist Formerly Known As Fausto Carmona) is embroiled in an uncertain identity fraud situation, so the back of the rotation is frail: Kevin Slowey and Josh Tomlin are uninspiring finesse guys, so Jeanmar Gomez might crack the rotation just on the heels of a good spring. The bullpen, on the other, hand, is quite good. Closer Chris Perez will be hurt to start the year, but Vinnie Pestano (Death to Righties: they hit .115 off him) is a capable fill-in. Joe Smith and Rafael Perez are solid options, and the once-reliable Dan Wheeler could bounce back from a poor 2011.

Carlos Santana packs quite
a punch for a stocky catcher.

Breakout Candidates: The guy to watch here is absolutely Carlos Santana. His OPS+ in his first 201 MLB games is 128, excellent for a catcher. He hit 27 homers and walked 97 times last season. If he reigns in the strikeouts a bit (133 last year) and gets better luck with his batting average (.239) he could emerge as the best all-around catcher in the American League. Jason Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenhall are two other guys with impressive minor league pedigrees who could impress given the at-bats.

3 Key Questions: Can the offense stay healthy? Will Choo and Jimenez bounce back from subpar years? And will something (anything?) stick at the back of the rotation?

Best Case Scenario: Choo and Santana become stars, Hafner and Sizemore get healthy, Ubaldo rediscovers his fastball, Derek Lowe remembers how to get outs, and the Indians' young roster pushes past the slow, plodding Tigers for first place in the AL Central.

Worst Case Scenario: Choo and Santana get hurt, Hafner and Sizemore stay hurt, Ubaldo turns into A.J. Burnett, Derek Lowe still can't get anyone out, and the prospects can't make a dent in the fifteen games that separate Cleveland from Detroit in the AL Central standings.

Predicted Finish: Cleveland has some nice pieces, and they'll hang with Detroit for much of the season. In the end, though, there's not enough pitching here to match the Tigers, and the Indians will settle for second place and a bright future.