Wednesday, March 28, 2012

MLB Season Preview: Kansas City Royals

The Royals don't have the pitching to contend this year, but they certainly have some impressive young pieces to build around.

Once hyped as the next George Brett, Alex
Gordon finally delivered on that promise in 2011.
Offense: Kansas City actually scored the 10th-most runs in baseball last year. The budding star is first baseman Eric Hosmer, who, as a 21-year-old last year, hit .293 with 19 homers and 11 steals in 128 games. He looks like a perennial All-Star and cornerstone of the Royals' lineup. He's pushed Billy Butler, a good contact hitter who has yet to develop big power, to the DH slot permanently. Outfielders Alex Gordon and Jeff Francoeur both finally shed the 'bust' label in 2011--Gordon had his long-awaited breakout by hitting .303/.376/.502 with 23 homers and 17 steals, and Francoeur overcame his miserable OBP by hitting .285 with 20 homers and 22 steals. There's not much else, though. Mike Moustakas will be a star someday at third, but he may not be ready yet. Catcher-of-the-future Salvador Perez will miss the first few months of the season. Center-fielder Lorenzo Cain and shortstop Alcides Escobar, acquired in the Zack Greinke trade, are excellent defensively but need to prove they can hit in the majors.

Meet Bruce Chen, a 34-year-old
journeyman...and KC's Opening
Day starter.
Pitching: The Royals are still waiting on most of their top arms. The veterans are Jonathan Sanchez, whose excellent strikeout numbers are accompanied by too many walks and DL stints, and Bruce Chen, an unexciting back-of-the-rotation guy. Former #1-overall pick Luke Hochevar showed signs of promise last year but his 4.68 ERA was the best of his career. Felipe Paulino was looking like a solid breakout candidate until he went on the DL with elbow troubles, so Luis Mendoza and top prospect Danny Duffy will fill out the rotation. The bullpen lost closer Joakim Soria for the season, but Aaron Crow was an All-Star last year, Greg Holland has emerged as a dominant setup man, and the Royals brought in Jonathan Broxton as a reclamation project.

Eric Hosmer: Future Stud.
Breakout Candidates: He's already experienced major league success, but Eric Hosmer is poised to take the league by storm as a 22-year-old. He'll hit for average and power and even sprinkle in some steals. The good news for the Royals is that he's not even a free agent until 2018. On the mound, Crow or Hochevar could experience improvement, but the pitcher to watch is Greg Holland, who might emerge as one of the AL's best closers if given the chance.

3 Key Questions: Was 2011 an outlier for Gordon and Francoeur, or will they produce big numbers again? Which members of the young infield will take the next step? And will any of the starters post an ERA below 4.00?

Best Case Scenario: Jonathan Sanchez controls his walks, Crow and Hochevar break out, Hosmer and Gordon are MVP candidates, and the young Royals finish above .500 for just the second time since 1994.

Worst Case Scenario: The starting pitching is a nightmare, Gordon and Francoeur take a step back, the young position players struggle mightily, and the Royals finish fourth in yet another losing season.

Predicted Finish: A stealthy-good offense will lead the Royals to a .500 record and a third-place finish in the AL Central. Things are finally looking up in Kansas City.

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