MLB Season Preview: Detroit Tigers

Coming off an ALCS appearance and now armed with Prince Fielder, the Tigers are the heavy favorites in the AL Central.

Cabrera and Fielder aren't being paid
for their speed or agility.

Offense: Of course, any discussion of the Tigers' lineup (which ranked 4th in runs scored last year) begins and ends with the powerful duo of Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. Fielder will more than compensate for the lost offense of Victor Martinez, who is out for the season, and Brennan Boesch could have a big year hitting in front of the two sluggers. Fielder doesn't come without warning flags though: Detroit's Comerica Park could deflate his numbers, as could the transition from the NL to the AL (Cabrera himself struggled with the switch).  The rest of Detroit's lineup is solid, though there are some concerns. The fluky batting averages of Alex Avila (.295!) and Jhonny Peralta (.299!!!) won't be repeated. Delmon Young is being relied on to keep up his power surge and provide Fielder with lineup protection, but no good has ever come from relying too much upon Delmon Young. Austin Jackson simply can't be hitting leadoff again with a .317 OBP. But much of this is nitpicking--the Tigers will score runs in bunches. As an aside, the infield defense will be absolutely atrocious; Fielder, Cabrera, Peralta, and Ryan Raburn could be a historically-bad unit.

Justin Verlander can strike you out with his eyes.

Pitching: Not much needs to be said about defending AL MVP Justin Verlander. He'll continue to dominate, though last season's ultra-high pitch count and the poor defense behind him could cause some regression. Speaking of regression--hello, Doug Fister. Fister posted an impossible 57-5 K/BB ratio after being traded to Detroit, and his 1.79 ERA will return to reality (though the Tigers will benefit from having him for a full season now). Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello are two more righties who could both suffer from that porous infield defense, but they should eat innings effectively. The fifth starter could be a revolving door of minor league guys like Andy Oliver or Drew Smyly. If top prospect Jacob Turner eventually cracks the rotation, he could make an immediate impact. In the bullpen, Jose Valverde won't go 49-for-49 in save opportunities again, but Octavio Dotel was added to a very solid group of arms.

Brennan Boesch is an ideal name
for a power-hitter. Boesch.

Breakout Candidates: You can bet that Brennan Boesch will be seeing a ton of fastballs over the plate with Cabrera and Fielder hitting behind him. Everything is set up for him to have a career year entering his age-27 season. He was in the midst of a .283/.341/.458 campaign with 16 homers last year before getting hurt.

3 Key Questions: How much will Verlander, Avila, Peralta, and Valverde regress from their career seasons? Which pitcher out of the Fister/Scherzer/Porcello group steps up behind Verlander? And what kind of video game numbers will Cabrera and Fielder be putting up?

Best Case Scenario: Defense be damned: Fielder and Cabrera hit like Ruth and Gehrig, Boesch and Raburn break out, Delmon Young returns to 2010 form, Austin Jackson finds the strike zone, and Verlander dominates the postseason to carry Detroit to the World Series.

Worst Case Scenario: Fielder struggles to adjust to AL pitching, Cabrera keeps fielding grounders with his face, Jackson and Young continue being out machines, the rotation is burned by horrendous defense, Valverde melts down, and the Tigers improbably miss the playoffs after being ambushed in the Central by the Indians.

Predicted Finish: No division race is as clear-cut as this one: it's Tigers or bust. Plus, they clearly have the money and the win-now determination to make a midseason acquisition if they need to (like Fister last year). I think they'll struggle more than people expect them to, and the Indians will give them a run for their money, but they'll end up in first place.