Bracket Picks by the Numbers

Here are some recent trends and statistics from past NCAA tournaments, and their implications for making bracket selections.

Fact: #1 seeds are 108-0 against #16 seeds.
Implication: Pretty simple. Send all your #1 seeds into the Round of 32, unless your son plays for Western Kentucky.

Fact: However, a #1 seed has lost before the Sweet 16 in each of the last two tournaments.
Implication: Either you think this is the beginning of a trend, or you think that lightning won't strike three years in a row. If you're in the first camp, then potential upsets to think about are #9 Kansas State's size and physicality over #1 Syracuse, #8 Memphis' athleticism over #1 Michigan State, and #9 Connecticut's talent over #1 Kentucky. In you're in the second camp, take comfort in the fact that only 13% of #1 seeds fail to reach the Sweet Sixteen.

Fact: #2 seeds have lost to #15 seeds just four times in the last 27 years.
Implication: You're probably sending your #2 seeds into the Round of 32, as well. But if you're feeling particuarly feisty and want to pick an upset here, go with #15 Detroit over #2 Kansas. We all know what's happened to Kansas against lower seeds in recent years (cough-Farokhmanesh-cough), and Detroit is led by formidable seven-footer Eli Holman. Butler coach Brad Stevens has said that there's never been a 15-seed like the Titans. If a #2 seed is going to lose (for the first time in 11 years), this is where it's going to happen. Not a pick for the faint of heart, though.

Fact: The Horizon League boasts at least one tournament win in each of the last seven years.
Implication: The Horizon League only sent one team to the tournament this year, and it's not Butler. It's...Detroit. So if the streak is going to continue...well, see above.

Fact: Almost one-third of #2 seeds fail to reach the Sweet Sixteen.
Implication: There's the difference between being a #1 and a #2 seed. It would be wise to pick a #2 seed to lose its second game. Duke has looked vulnerable recently. Kansas and Ohio State could fall to a WCC team (Saint Mary's and Gonzaga respectively). And Missouri could be out-Missouri'd by Florida.

Fact: #3 seeds have won 85% of their games against #14 seeds.
Implication: This is good news for Baylor (against South Dakota State), Florida State (against St. Bonaventure), and Georgetown (against Belmont). But if a #14 seed is going to win a game, Marquette might want to watch out. The Golden Eagles play the winner of the Iona/BYU play-in game, and both of those teams are much stronger than the traditional 14-seed. Remember, Morehead State beat Louisville in the 3/14 matchup last year, and Ohio crushed Georgetown the year before that. An upset could easily happen to one of these #3 seeds.

Fact: In the past two years, Georgetown has lost in the first round to an 11-seed and a 14-seed.
Implication: If you're looking for one of those #3 seeds to lose, the Hoyas have some recent history of underperforming as a high seed.

Fact: In the past two tournaments, only three of the eight #3 seeds made it to the Sweet Sixteen.
Implication: Yes 85% of #3 seeds win their first game, but recently they've hit trouble after that. Check your bracket, and if you have all four of Baylor, Florida State, Georgetown, and Marquette reaching the Sweet Sixteen, reconsider.

Fact: #4 seeds have won 79% of their games against #13 seeds.
Fact: #13 seeds have won at least one game in each of the past four tournaments, and 9 of the past 11.
Implication: It's unlikely that all the #4 seeds escape first-round upsets. Which one(s) will fall? I'm not sure about picking New Mexico State over Indiana or Montana over Wisconsin. But take a look at Ohio (beat Georgetown two years back) against Michigan, and Davidson (beat Kansas this season) against an offensively challenged Louisville team.

Fact: In the past seven years, only 36% of the #4 seeds reached the Sweet Sixteen.
Implication: Even if the #4 seeds survive the first round, thet won't always win a second game. There's almost no way Indiana, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Louisville all reach the Sweet Sixteen.

Fact: #5 seeds beat #12 seeds only two-thirds of the time.
Fact: #12 seeds have gone 0-for-4 only three times in tournament history.
Implication: It's a near-certainty that a #5 seed will fall in the first round, and perhaps two will. Vanderbilt has lost to a double-digit seed in each of its past three tourney appearances, and gets a solid Harvard team this year. Wichita State could be vulnerable against a VCU defense that forces an insane amount of turnovers. Long Beach State is experienced and with Casper Ware's leadership could knock off New Mexico. And Fran Dunphy has had limited success in the tournament, so his Temple squad could lose to the winner of the Cal/South Florida game. If you're not picking at least one of these #12 seeds to win a game, you're doing the wrong thing.

Fact: Like #5 seeds, #6 seeds beat #11 seeds only two-thirds of the time.
Fact: #6 seeds have not swept all four of their games since 2004.
Implication: Same as #5 seeds: pick one or two 11's to pull off a Round of 64 upset. I wouldn't be so confident about Colorado State beating Murray State, but N.C. State (over San Diego State), Texas (over Cincinnati), and Colorado (over UNLV) could each be justified as a good upset pick.

Fact: #7/#10 and #8/#9 matchups have historically been toss-ups.
Implication: Ignore seedings in these games, as the teams are evenly matched. And don't pick all four of the same seed to win, as that rarely happens. As an aside: #9 Connecticut is 16-1 under Jim Calhoun in the Round of 64. Act accordingly.

Fact: At least one double-digit seed has reached the Sweet 16 in 25 of the past 27 tournaments.
Fact: At least two double-digit seeds have reached the Sweet 16 in 12 of the past 15 tournaments.
Implication: Pick at least one 10, 11, or 12 seed to reach the Sweet 16, and perhaps two. There's no shortage of options--Xavier, West Virginia, N.C. State, VCU, Long Beach State, California, etc. Don't get too cute with #13 and #14 seeds winning two games, though--only one school seeded lower than 12th has reached the Sweet Sixteen since 2000 (Bradley, 2006).

Fact: The Big East has gotten 19 teams into the tournament over the past two years; only four of those reached the Sweet 16.
Fact: In the past two tournaments, a team was upset by a seed at least five spots lower than it 20 times; a Big East team was the loser 10 of those times.
Implication: For whatever reason, the Big East hasn't performed well in the tournament recently. And this is considered to be a down year for the conference compared to its recent 'dominance.' High seeds like Georgetown, Marquette, Louisville, and even Syracuse could be prone to early upsets.

Fact: At least one team seeded #6 or worse has reached the Elite Eight in 22 of the past 27 tournaments.
Implication: Pick an underdog to reach the Elite Eight. It doesn't have to be an out-of-nowhere, impossible-to-pick, double-digit seed like VCU. Look at 6-seeds (like Cincinnati, Murray State, and UNLV), 7-seeds (Saint Mary's, Notre Dame, and Florida) 8-seeds (Memphis), 9-seeds (UConn), or 10-seeds (Xavier, West Virginia).

Fact: In the last eight years that the #1 overall seed has been revealed, that team has reached the Final Four just three times, and won the championship once.
Implication: Bad news for Kentucky. The only team over that stretch to win the title was Florida in 2007. The good news is that Kentucky compares favorably to that team (same conference, dominant season, strong frontcourt). But those odds are scary.

Fact: John Calipari's four #1-seeded teams have never lost before the Elite Eight.
Implication: So on the flip side, here's some comforting news for Wildcats fans. Calipari's team won't be prone to an early upset, which is bad news for South Region hopefuls like Indiana, Wichita State, and UConn.

Fact: Both times Syracuse has been a #1 seed, the Orange lost in the Sweet 16.
Implication: This probably doesn't mean anything. But it might.

Fact: Before Kemba last year, the Big East hadn't won a title since 2004.
Fact: The Big 10 hasn't won a title since 2000.
Fact: The Pac-12 hasn't won a title since 1997.
Fact: The Big 12 has won one title since 1997.
Fact: The ACC has won five of the past 11 titles.
Implication: This might not mean much, but it's good news for North Carolina, Duke, and Florida State, and not so much for everyone else.

Fact: All four #1 seeds have reached the Final Four just once (2008).
Fact: Three #1 seeds have reached the Final Four just three times.
Implication: Never pick all four #1 seeds to reach the Final Four, because that's as unlikely to happen as it is boring. Interestingly, having three #1 seeds reach the Final Four is nearly as improbable.

Fact: Conference tournaments matter.
In last year's Final Four, Kentucky, Butler, and national champ Connecticut each won their conference tourneys, and VCU lost in its championship game. The year before, West Virginia, Butler, and national champ Duke each won their conference tourneys. And keep in mind that no team has won a title after losing its first conference tournament game (look what happened to Pittsburgh last season). This is bad news for Marquette this year.

Fact: Nine of the past thirteen national champions were #1 seeds.
Fact: 29 of the past 33 national champions were either #1, #2, or #3 seeds.
Implication: Don't pick someone completely off the map to win the whole thing. As it's been discussed, lots of high seeds will lose early, but that doesn't mean one of them won't be the last one standing.