-This region is stacked. A while ago, if you told someone that Kentucky, Duke, Baylor, Indiana, Wichita State, UNLV, Connecticut, and Xavier were going to be in the same tournament bracket, they wouldn't believe you. Read that list again. That's nasty.
-That being said, there may not be many upsets here. Because the top teams are so talented, double-digit seeds may have a hard time. #10 Xavier will have a tough go against #7 Notre Dame, and the same for #12 VCU against #5 Wichita State. #3 Baylor would have to really screw up to lose to Nate Wolters and #14 South Dakota State. #13 New Mexico State has a shot against #4 Indiana, but no way am I picking that. #11 Colorado may have the best chance to do some damage. The Buffaloes won four games in four days during the Pac-12 tournament; they ride a wave of momentum into their game with #6 UNLV, a team that's underperformed recently. Andre Roberson can match up with Mike Moser and Colorado could surprise some people. Other than that, I don't see much.
-#1 Kentucky is a near-lock for the Sweet 16. Everyone is talking about how #9 UConn could beat Kentucky in the Round of 32. Sure, they have the talent. But can they even beat #8 Iowa State? The Cyclones have wins over Kansas and Baylor this season, and are led by versatile big man Royce White (Draymond Green Lite) and sharpshooter Scott Christopherson (45% from three-point range). That game looks like a toss-up, with maybe an edge for UConn based on tournament experience and coaching. Anyway, neither team can realistically beat Kentucky in Louisville.
-Will the Wildcats get another shot at #4 Indiana? I don't think so. The Hoosiers lost senior leader Verdell Jones to injury and don't really have a great ball-handler. They're new to postseason play and haven't excelled away from home (their first two games are in Portland). #14 New Mexico State, led by Wendell McKines (18 ppg, 10 rpg), can put up a ton of points and threaten the upset. And even if the Hoosiers survive that game, they'd have a tough matchup against either Wichita State or VCU in the next round.
The Hoosiers won't be in my Sweet 16.
-#5 Wichita State is scary-good. The Shockers won the NIT last year; they're experienced, balanced, efficient, and talented. Joe Ragland can penetrate and score; 7-footer Garrett Stutz is a formidable presence inside. They're road warriors and should be well-equipped to handle #12 VCU's disruptive defense. I think they can win two tough games and then move on to the Sweet 16, where they should be competitive with Kentucky.
-#3 Baylor and #6 UNLV could reach the Final Four. They could also lose in the first round; that's the risk of picking them to make a run. Both teams have enviable talent at multiple positions, but have underperformed at times this season. Baylor has an electrifying playmaker in Pierre Jackson, an NBA-sized frontcourt in Perry Jones III and Quincy Miller, a guy who can sink 3's in Brady Heslip, and experienced tournament players in Quincy Acy and A.J. Walton. And the Bears looked great in the Big 12 tournament. But they've been inconsistent, especially defensively and on the boards, and have been uncompetitive for long stretches against elite teams. UNLV boasts Mike Moser, Chase Stanback, Oscar Bellfield, and Anthony Marshall, a quartet that contributed to a huge victory over North Carolina. But the Rebels have suffered some puzzling losses and are just 5-5 in their past 10 games. UNLV (more so than Baylor) looks susceptible to a first-round exit (they play red-hot #11 Colorado). Yet if either team plays up to its potential, one could be playing Kentucky for a Final Four berth next week.
-#7 Notre Dame/#10 Xavier is a toss-up. Both teams are a little underwhelming. #2 Duke should consider itself fortunate that it didn't get a 7-seed like Saint Mary's or Florida, or a 10-seed like West Virginia. Mike Brey doesn't have a lot of tournament success with the Irish, but Notre Dame's defense will force Xavier to take bad jump shots, and the Musketeers have suffered through some long scoring droughts this season. If the Irish hit their threes, they should win handily. If not, it'll be a down-to-the-wire battle, a situation in which experienced playmaker Tu Holloway could excel.
-Can anyone beat Kentucky? Duke, Baylor, and UNLV are all flawed, but whoever emerges from the bracket's bottom half could give the Wildcats a run. Actually, the team with the best chance may be Wichita State. Garrett Stutz can match up with Anthony Davis and the Wildcats showed some vulnerability in the SEC tournament (mostly hoisting up, and missing, too many 3's). Wichita State would have been a sleeper pick to reach the Final Four had they not been seeded in Kentucky's region. Instead, the Wildcats should reach New Orleans, where they will be the favorites to win the whole thing.
-The Favorite: Kentucky
-Final Four sleepers: Baylor, Wichita State, UNLV
-Vulnerable top seeds: Duke, Indiana, UNLV
-Cinderella candidates: Xavier, Colorado, VCU, New Mexico State
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