Sunday, March 11, 2012

Selection Sunday: First Reactions

Some thoughts on the much-anticipated brackets.

1. The Selection Committee did a great job. The #1 and #2 seeds were very fair, and there aren't very many egregious mistakes. The matchups for the play-in games are excellent. Only Florida (as a 7-seed) sticks out as a strange seeding decision. The only choice that will really raise some eyebrows was...

2. Iona over Drexel. The Gaels and their questionable at-large profile made the tournament as a 14-seed in a play-in game, while Drexel was the only bubble team left out of the field that has a legitimate gripe. Neither won their conference tournament, but Drexel did get to the finals. And the Dragons finished the season on an impressive winning streak. The difference was nonconference strength of schedule--Iona's was good, and Drexel's was pretty miserable. That's the Selection Committee sending a message.

3. The Committee was right in leaving out Seton Hall, Mississippi State, and Washington. All three stumbled down the stretch, and none of them looked like tournament teams consistently enough to warrant inclusion in the field. Leaving out Washington was particuarly impressive--it's the first time the regular season winner of a Big Six conference will miss out on a bid. Good for the Committee, because the Huskies didn't deserve one after their quarterfinal loss to Oregon State.

4. The Midwest Region's geography is intriguing. North Carolina is the #1 seed, but since Kentucky will play in Atlanta, the Tar Heels will be shipped out to St. Louis for the Sweet Sixteen. That's dangerous because their 2-seed in the region is...Kansas. The Jayhawks have a tricky road to the Elite Eight (Saint Mary's in particular could be dangerous) but if they get there, they'd have a geographic advantage in a potential game with UNC.

5. The South Region is stacked. Forget the fact that the region has the #1 overall seed in Kentucky, plus the Duke Blue Devils. The 3-seed is Baylor, which once ranked as high as #3 in the country. The 4-seed is Indiana, and we already know the Hoosiers can beat just about anyone. The 5-seed is Wichita State, perhaps the best mid-major in the country, and the 6-seed is UNLV, one of the country's most talented teams. Throw in UConn as a 9-seed, and the VCU Rams as a 12-seed, and whoever emerges from this bracket will have earned it.

6. Good luck, Michigan State. The Spartans got the last #1 seed, which was good. But their road to the Final Four is treacherous to say the least. The potential Round of 32 matchup with 8-seed Memphis is scary. The 4- and 5- seeds are Big East champ Louisville and Mountain West champ New Mexico. And the other side of the bracket has the Killer M's: Missouri, Marquette, and Murray State.

7. Dangerous double-digit seeds are everywhere. As a 10-seed, West Virginia and Kevin Jones could cause Ohio State problems if they beat Gonzaga. N.C. State, an 11-seed, almost beat North Carolina yesterday. South Dakota State and Belmont aren't pushover 14-seeds. And who would want to face 12th-seeded VCU?

8. Tough draw for the West Coast Conference. Both Saint Mary's and Gonzaga are excellent basketball teams capable of winning multiple games, but both got 7-seeds. That means the Gaels have to beat Purdue just to get the chance to face Kansas, and Gonzaga has to go through West Virginia to face Ohio State. And BYU was one of the last teams in the field, stuck in a First Four play-in game as a 14-seed. Compared to where the Mountain West teams were seeded (a 5-seed and two 6's), the WCC seems undervalued and its teams caught tough breaks this year.

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