On Thursday, the Texas Rangers officially announced an eight-year, $120 million extension with their shortstop, Elvis Andrus (who has already played in over 600 major league games despite only being 24 years old). Coincidentally, the Rangers also have an even younger shortstop in their minor league system named Jurickson Profar, who's almost-universally recognized as the best position-player prospect in all of baseball. He's a more-than-capable defender who hit 14 homers with a .820 OPS in Double-A last year -- as a 20-year old middle-infielder. He could be ready for the majors as soon as this summer. But Andrus is now locked in at shortstop for the foreseeable future. At second base, Ian Kinsler is just entering Year One of a five-year contract worth $75 million. There's no room for Profar in Texas.
The Rangers now have three options:
A) Play Profar at second base and move Kinsler to another position (first base or outfield).
B) Trade Kinsler.
C) Trade Profar.
Plan A looks like the best one on paper, because it allows Texas to keep all three of their middle infielders. But Kinsler is far less valuable at a position other than second base: he doesn't hit as well as a typical first baseman or outfielder, and such a move would eliminate the defensive value he provides. Ian Kinsler at a position besides second base isn't worth $75 million, nowhere close. Plus, for what it's worth, he was resistant to the idea of a switch during the offseason, and the Rangers might not be willing to go through another ugly Michael Young situation again.
If the Rangers could find a way to make Plan B work by trading Kinsler, they'd have to consider it. But I'm not so sure teams would be lining up for the chance to pay Ian Kinsler $75 million through 2017. Especially considering he'll be 32 in June, and his offensive production took a nosedive last year. The Dodgers would probably take him, given the bottomless pit of cash that the team is swimming in, but the Rangers probably wouldn't get much -- if anything -- back in return. At that point they'd just be giving away a solid player for nothing, and what's the point of that?
No, assuming Kinsler is sticking around at second base, the most efficient use of the Rangers' resources would be Plan C: trading Jurickson Profar. And it just so happens that the perfect trade target is out there waiting for them: Giancarlo Stanton.
Giancarlo Stanton hit 93 home runs before he turned 23 years old. That's more than Ted Williams had at that age; more than Jimmie Foxx; more than Ken Griffey Jr. In fact, only five players hit more career home runs before their 23rd birthday than Stanton: Mel Ott, Eddie Mathews, Alex Rodriguez, Tony Conigliaro, and Frank Robinson. Needless to say, those are good baseball players. Stanton's OPS has increased from .833 in his first season to .893 in his second to .969 last year, when he also led all of baseball in slugging percentage (.608). He had a higher slugging percentage than the guy who won the Triple Crown. As a 22-year-old. In just his third full season. Playing for the Miami Marlins. On a surgically-repaired right knee. With virtually no lineup protection. In a pitcher's park. Hot damn.
Stanton won't hit free agency until 2017. Which means that if Team X traded for him tomorrow, Team X would have him under contract for the rest of 2013, and 2014, and 2015, and 2016. That simple fact, along with the above paragraph, makes Stanton the most valuable trade chip in baseball not named Harper or Trout. So why would the Marlins deal him away? Because they probably won't be any good for a long time, and because it's extremely unlikely that their cheap owners will want to pay him once he gets expensive, and because, well, why would Stanton want to sign a long-term extension with this dysfunctional franchise? Trading Stanton now, while he still has four years of team control left, would maximize the Marlins' potential return. Four years of Stanton is so incredibly valuable that there are only a handful of hyper-elite prospects the Marlins would even consider accepting in exchange for him. Jurickson Profar is one of those few -- a low-risk, low-cost, potential-franchise-cornerstone that the Marlins so desperately need.
On the Rangers' side, giving up Profar would sting. In fact, they'd probably have to include several additional prospects along with Profar to make a Stanton deal work, which would damage their farm system even more. But if there's a team in baseball that could ever afford to trade away perhaps the best prospect in baseball, it's the Rangers, thanks to Elvis Andrus and his new long-term extension. Regardless, Stanton would be worth it. The Rangers have a need for outfielders, with Nelson Cruz scheduled to be a free agent after this season and David Murphy being, you know, just David Murphy. And Stanton could wreak untold damage playing his home games in the Rangers' homer-happy ballpark, sandwiched between Elvis Andrus and Adrian Beltre. It's a drool-worthy scenario.
Giancarlo Stanton is a generational talent. The kind you trade for, no matter the cost, the instant he becomes available. The last time a hitter of his caliber was traded at such a young age was more than five years ago, when these same Marlins dealt away a dude named Miguel Cabrera.
Miguel Cabrera, through age 22: 405 games, 78 home runs, .300/.366/.523, .889 OPS, 133 OPS+
Giancarlo Stanton, through age 22: 373 games, 93 home runs, .270/.350/.553, .903 OPS, 141 OPS+
The Rangers have a chance to fix a roster inefficiency by swapping one of their excess shortstops for an MVP-caliber outfielder. The Marlins have a chance to cash in an elite trade chip they may never get to use themselves in order to rebuild their franchise around younger, cheaper players, including the best prospect in baseball. Jurickson for Giancarlo. It makes too much sense.
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