The Cult of Jack Morris

"I think Jack Morris is one candidate where you just got to overlook the statistics."
-Bill Madden, Hall of Fame voter

"I know the stats zealots don’t think Morris is a Hall of Famer because his rankings in their new-fangled ratings fall below their standards. But they don‘t have a formula for intestinal fortitude or determination."
-Murray Chass, Hall of Fame voter

"Statistics are important. There's no arguing that. The problem with stats is, they don't measure grit. Morris had plenty of that."
-Bob Sansevere, Pioneer Press

"When did we decide that earned-run average was more important than wins?"
 -Jack Morris

It is impossible to look at Jack Morris's career and make an objective, rational case that he belongs in the Baseball Hall of Fame.

His 3.90 ERA would rank dead last among Hall of Fame pitchers. His 39.3 Wins Above Replacement ranks 150th all-time at his position. His strikeout-to-walk ratio was a dismal 1.78, good for 424th all-time, a few slots behind Dontrelle Willis and Barry Zito. His adjusted-ERA (ERA+) was just 105, meaning he was an above-average pitcher for his career. Not a great one deserving of Cooperstown enshrinement.

Yet two-thirds of this year's Hall of Fame voters cast a ballot for him anyway. They weren't voting for Jack Morris The Pitcher. They voted for Jack Morris The Legend, a folk creation based entirely on exaggerating memories and distorting facts. The Legend feeds on false narratives to stay alive. Let's debunk a few of them.

Narrative 1. "Jack Morris was the most dominant pitcher of his era."
For this to become true, all you'd have to do is kidnap Nolan Ryan, Roger Clemens, Steve Carlton, and Bert Blyleven.

Morris made 527 career starts. He put his team behind in 344 of them. He allowed four or more runs in 244 of them (more than any other AL pitcher in the DH era). These are not things that "dominant" pitchers do.

Narrative 2. "Jack Morris had the most wins of the 1980s."
This is the "statistic" used to support the "most dominant pitcher of his era" claim. There are so many things wrong with this statement.
1) Wins don't say anything about the quality of pitchers.
2) The rest of the top five in "pitcher wins from the 1980s" is Dave Stieb, Bob Welch, Fernando Valenzuela, and Charlie Hough. Not one of those four guys is in the Hall of Fame, or even came close. It's almost like ... wins don't say anything about the quality of pitchers.
3) Morris also led the 1980s in "most hits allowed," "most runs allowed," and "most home runs allowed." Leading the decade in wins was a function of durability and good run support, not pitching skill. Dave Stieb, for instance, had a better ERA (3.32 to 3.66) and ERA+ (126 to 109) during the 1980s. He just played for an inferior team. He was the better pitcher.
4) "The 1980s" is no more meaningful than any random ten-year sample. Here are a few pitchers who led baseball in wins during other ten-year periods:
1977-1986: Ron Guidry
1984-1993: Frank Viola
2000-2009: Andy Pettitte

Narrative 3. "Jack Morris made fourteen Opening Day starts, fewer than only Tom Seaver."
No one, anywhere, has ever used "Opening Day Starts" as a pro-Hall of Fame argument until now. It's meaningless trivia. Brad Radke made nine Opening Day starts for the Minnesota Twins in his career. He dropped off the ballot last year after receiving precisely 0.3% of the vote. "Fourteen Opening Day Starts" is the perfect example of a writer first deciding that Morris is a Hall of Famer and then seeking out arguments to justify that position, instead of the other way around. "Fourteen Opening Day Starts." Please.

Narrative 4. "Jack Morris was a big-game pitcher, and one of the baseball's best postseason starters."
Morris's postseason ERA was 3.80, nearly identical to his career regular season ERA of 3.90. If he's interested in seeing what a real postseason ace looks like, he should go check out Curt Schilling's page on BaseballReference.com.

Narrative 5. "Jack Morris threw one of the greatest postseason games ever."
He did. He threw a ten-inning shutout in the 1991 World Series, leading the Twins to a 1-0 win and thus the championship. But on its own, it isn't enough to call Morris a Hall of Famer. Nine other pitchers have thrown a shutout in Game 7 of the World Series, including non-Hall of Famers like Ralph Terry (who also won 1-0), Bret Saberhagen, and Johnny Podres. If one dominant postseason game was enough, then Don Larsen would have been inducted into the Hall a long time ago.

Narrative 6. "Jack Morris was the #1 starter for three World Series-winning teams."
He may have started Game 1 of the World Series for three championship teams. But not once was he the best pitcher on a championship team.

1984 Detroit Tigers
Morris: 3.60 ERA, 109 ERA+, 2.3 WAR, 7th in Cy Young voting
Dan Petry: 3.24 ERA, 121 ERA+, 3.3 WAR, 5th in Cy Young voting

1991 Minnesota Twins
Morris: 3.43 ERA, 125 ERA+, 4.1 WAR, 4th in Cy Young voting
Scott Erickson: 3.18 ERA, 135 ERA+, 4.3 WAR, 2nd in Cy Young voting

1992 Toronto Blue Jays
Morris: 4.04 ERA, 101 ERA+, 2.5 WAR, 5th in Cy Young voting
Jimmy Key: 3.53 ERA, 115 ERA+, 3.6 WAR
Juan Guzman: 2.64 ERA, 154 ERA+, 5.2 WAR

In each of his three World Series-winning seasons, Morris was was the second- (or third-) best pitcher on his own team. In fact, in both '84 and '91, Morris finished behind a teammate in the Cy Young Award voting.

Narrative 7. "Numbers don't tell the whole story. You had to see Jack Morris pitch to know how great he was."
This argument comes from the older writers who claim "if you saw him with your eyes, you'd understand." But again: baseball writers who saw Morris pitch were the people giving out Cy Young votes. They were the ones who decided that Morris wasn't the best pitcher on his own team during two of his three championship seasons. In 1984, they awarded the Cy Young to Willie Hernandez, who was not only another teammate of Morris's -- he was a relief pitcher.

Across his entire career, Morris received a GRAND TOTAL of four first-place Cy Young votes. Four. Dave Stieb got five in 1982 alone. Seems like the baseball writers who saw Jack Morris pitch knew exactly how great he was.

Just how great? Below is a table pitting Morris against 20 similar pitchers from around his time period, comparing their career Wins Above Replacement, ERA, adjusted-ERA+, whether or not they won a Cy Young Award, and their single best performance in Hall of Fame voting (by percentage). Note the complete lack of Cooperstown support for any of these pitchers, with a lone exception -- Morris, ironically one of the least qualified candidates listed:

Pitcher	WAR	ERA	ERA+	Cy Young?	Best HoF %
Rick Reuschel	64.6	3.37	114	No	0.4
Kevin Brown	64.5	3.28	127	No	2.1
David Cone	58.2	3.46	121	Yes	3.9
Bret Saberhagen	56.0	3.34	126	Yes (2)	1.3
Dave Stieb	53.5	3.44	122	No	1.4
Jerry Koosman	53.1	3.36	110	No	0.9
Frank Tanana	52.6	3.66	106	No	0.0
Orel Hershiser	48.0	3.48	112	Yes	11.2
Jimmy Key	46.1	3.51	122	No	0.6
Ron Guidry	45.4	3.29	119	Yes	8.8
Dwight Gooden	45.1	3.51	111	Yes	3.3
Dennis Martinez	45.1	3.70	106	No	3.2
Frank Viola	43.7	3.73	112	Yes	0.4
Vida Blue	41.3	3.27	108	Yes	8.7
Bob Welch	39.9	3.47	106	Yes	0.2
Tom Candiotti	39.3	3.73	108	No	0.4
JACK MORRIS	39.3	3.90	105	No	67.7
John Candelaria	37.4	3.33	114	No	0.2
Charlie Hough	34.8	3.75	106	No	0.8
Fernando Valenzuela	34.2	3.54	104	Yes	6.2
Jose Rijo	33.0	3.24	121	No	0.2

Besides Morris, not one of these pitchers was ever seriously considered for the Hall. Most of them fell off the ballot entirely, without any fanfare, after only a year or two. The 67.7% support he earned from the voters this year is utterly inexplicable and undeserved given how quickly these better-or-equal pitchers were tossed aside.

Next year will be his final go-around on the ballot. Maybe he'll get in, maybe he won't. Maybe he'll be treated kindly by the Veterans' Committee down the road. All I know is that if Jack Morris gets into the Hall of Fame, Kevin Brown deserves to get in twice.