2014 will be the fifteenth and final time Jack Morris will be eligible for the Hall of Fame; Andy Pettitte won't even make his first appearance on the ballot until 2019. But despite the time lapse between their careers, they have remarkably similar Cooperstown candidacies. Both pitched for a long time; both had the good fortune of pitching for good teams; and both have essentially two statistics working in their favor:
1. Wins.
2. Playoff wins.
Morris had the most wins in baseball between 1980 and 1989; Pettitte had the most between 2000 and 2009. Both pitched in high-profile playoff games and won multiple championships. Both won more than 250 career games (but not 300) and both struck out more than 2,400 hitters (but not 3,000). Given the parallels, Morris could serve as a something of a trial balloon for Pettitte's Hall of Fame chances. And because Morris accumulated 67.7% of the vote last year (tantalizingly close to the required 75% mark with one more year of balloting to come), Pettitte's odds might be better than you think.
On top of that, it isn't hard to argue that Pettitte was simply better than Morris. Their career ERAs are almost identical, but Pettitte pitched in a significantly tougher environment, which is why his WAR and ERA+ are both significantly better than Morris'. He also has about the same number of wins and strikeouts as Morris despite 500 fewer innings. As for the postseason: their ERAs are again virtually identical, but Pettitte has a huge lead in innings (276.2 to 92.1). If Morris is on the cusp of induction, and Pettitte was just a better version of Morris, then Pettitte would appear to be on a surefire Hall of Fame trajectory.
That's not how it works, though. This is a perfect example of how letting Jack Morris into the Hall would lower the institution's standards to open the floodgates for good-but-not-great pitchers. Pettitte, like Morris, was one of those good-but-not-great pitchers.
Pettitte will retire with 18 seasons under his belt. Six of those seasons were significantly better than the other twelve. Six times, he had an ERA+ of 129 or better, which is very good. But in his other twelve seasons, his ERA+ was never better than 112. For some perspective, Adam Wainwright's career ERA+ is 129, and Frank Viola's career ERA+ is 112. For a third of his career, Andy Pettitte was Adam Wainwright -- a Cy Young contender. For the other two-thirds, though, he was just Frank Viola -- decent, above average. That shouldn't strike anyone as an obvious Hall of Fame career.
There's another big problem. Of Pettitte's six great seasons, only three were complete and healthy. In 2002, 2010, and 2012, his performance was elite, but he failed to reach even 140 innings in any of them. So, he actually had just three seasons (1996, 1997, 2005) in which he was a Cy Young-caliber pitcher for at least 220 innings. That's simply not enough.
It's not surprising, then, that Pettitte had only three seasons in which he accumulated at least 4 Wins Above Replacement (that's more or less the threshold for an All-Star pitcher). Those three seasons were, again, 1996, 1997, and 2005. To repeat: that's not enough. By comparison, Kevin Brown (who never even sniffed the Hall of Fame) had nine seasons with at least 4 WAR. Mike Mussina had twelve. Pettitte: three. Not enough.
And remember that stat about him having the most wins in baseball between 2000 and 2009? He also had the 50th-best ERA during that span among qualified pitchers, worse than Al Leiter and Mark Buehrle and A.J. Burnett. So, take that with a giant grain of salt.
Then, we come to all the starting pitchers who rank ahead of Pettitte (in terms of Hall of Fame worthiness) from his era. And there's a fairly long line. In no particular order: Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Pedro Martinez, Curt Schilling, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, Mike Mussina, and Roy Halladay. It's clear, to me at least, that Pettitte trails those nine by a margin that's wide enough to justify keeping him off of that Hall of Fame tier. In fact, you could even make a not-crazy argument that he ranks behind the likes of Kevin Brown and David Cone, too. Regardless -- he's far closer to Brown and Cone than he is to Mussina or Glavine.
There is certainly something to be said for his accomplishments in the playoffs. Nobody in baseball history has made more starts, pitched more innings, or won more games in the playoffs than Andy Pettitte. His 3.81 ERA in 276.2 postseason innings is his most impressive career achievement. Maybe if he had done a little more in the regular season, his October records could've served as a tie-breaker to push him over the top. As it stands, his regular season career -- three elite years, three elite-but-incomplete years, and twelve decent years -- doesn't cut it.
Basically, the only way Pettitte can be considered a Hall of Famer is if you place seriously heavy weight on postseason performance, which is something the Hall of Fame voters have virtually never done (at least until they needed to find an excuse to vote for Jack Morris, that is). As for what will actually happen? There are two fascinating variables in play: whether or not Morris gets in this year (he could be a crucial bar-setting precedent), and how the voters will treat Pettitte's dalliance with human growth hormone. Either way, it's important to remember (just as it is with Morris) that there's no need to pretend like Pettitte needs a plaque in Cooperstown or else his career won't be validated. He retires as a five-time World Series champion, the franchise leader in strikeouts for the New York Yankees, and the most prolific postseason pitcher in baseball history. Good stuff.
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