NFC East: "Eeny, Meeny, Miny, Moe"
1. Dallas Cowboys
You might as well pick the final NFC East standings by drawing team names out of a hat. It's the most unpredictable division in football. The Cowboys are the first-place pick here, just because the coaching looks improved and the Tony Romo-to-Dez Bryant connection could be unstoppable. Romo actually threw for 4,903 yards and 28 touchdowns last year; if he cuts back on the turnovers, then this could be an elite offense. Miles Austin and DeMarco Murray staying somewhat healthy would be a huge boost.
Over/Under 8.5 Wins: Over.
Bonus Prediction: Dez Bryant leads the NFL in touchdown catches.
2. Washington Redskins
On paper, the Redskins are probably better than the Cowboys. The problem is their schedule. They have to play the Packers and Broncos on the road (the Cowboys face them at home), and they also drew the 49ers and the Falcons (the Cowboys won't face either one). Plus, we just can't quantify the potential effect of Robert Griffin's knee surgery on his play. Until we see him in action, this entire offense is a question mark.
Over/Under 8.5 Wins: Under.
Bonus Prediction: Alfred Morris leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns.
3. New York Giants
The Giants could very well end up having the best offense in this division. Eli Manning may enjoy a bounce-back season now that both Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz are on the field at the same time. David Wilson, who was electrifying at times during his rookie season, is about to become a star. But oof, this defense. Only the historically-bad Saints gave up more yards than the Giants last year. That's not going to cut it in a division with three other high-powered offenses.
Over/Under 9 Wins: Under.
Bonus Prediction: David Wilson becomes the breakout running back of 2013, accumulating 1,500 total yards and 12 touchdowns.
You might as well pick the final NFC East standings by drawing team names out of a hat. It's the most unpredictable division in football. The Cowboys are the first-place pick here, just because the coaching looks improved and the Tony Romo-to-Dez Bryant connection could be unstoppable. Romo actually threw for 4,903 yards and 28 touchdowns last year; if he cuts back on the turnovers, then this could be an elite offense. Miles Austin and DeMarco Murray staying somewhat healthy would be a huge boost.
Over/Under 8.5 Wins: Over.
Bonus Prediction: Dez Bryant leads the NFL in touchdown catches.
2. Washington Redskins
On paper, the Redskins are probably better than the Cowboys. The problem is their schedule. They have to play the Packers and Broncos on the road (the Cowboys face them at home), and they also drew the 49ers and the Falcons (the Cowboys won't face either one). Plus, we just can't quantify the potential effect of Robert Griffin's knee surgery on his play. Until we see him in action, this entire offense is a question mark.
Over/Under 8.5 Wins: Under.
Bonus Prediction: Alfred Morris leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns.
3. New York Giants
The Giants could very well end up having the best offense in this division. Eli Manning may enjoy a bounce-back season now that both Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz are on the field at the same time. David Wilson, who was electrifying at times during his rookie season, is about to become a star. But oof, this defense. Only the historically-bad Saints gave up more yards than the Giants last year. That's not going to cut it in a division with three other high-powered offenses.
Over/Under 9 Wins: Under.
Bonus Prediction: David Wilson becomes the breakout running back of 2013, accumulating 1,500 total yards and 12 touchdowns.
4. Philadelphia Eagles
Like the Buffalo Bills, the Eagles will be entertaining even if they don't win games. New head coach Chip Kelly wants to play faster than the rest of the league, and with Michael Vick, LeSean McCoy, and DeSean Jackson, he has the personnel to do just that. Alas, football is a two-way sport, and the Eagles' hideous defense will have to take the field at some point, too. In a division with Tony Romo, Eli Manning, and Robert Griffin III, not being able to get stops will be Philadelphia's downfall. Plus, there's the ever-present threat of the annual Michael Vick injury. If/when he goes down, Kelly's offense will crumble.
Over/Under 7.5 Wins: Under.
Bonus Prediction: The Eagles lead the NFL in rushing yardage.
NFC North: "Aaron Rodgers. Calvin Johnson. Adrian Peterson. Jay Cutler?"
1. Green Bay Packers
It feels like the Packers were somewhat disappointing last year. The running game was pathetic, their dismal offensive line allowed Aaron Rodgers to be sacked a league-leading 51 times, and ... they still went 11-5 and won the NFC North. A similarly successful season is on tap. Rookie Eddie Lacy, of Alabama Crimson Tide fame, is the running back this franchise desperately needs. Greg Jennings will be more than adequately replaced by the electrifying Randall Cobb, who could lead the league in receptions. This offense is once again balanced and menacing. With the NFL's best quarterback at the helm, a championship is within reach.
Over/Under 10.5 Wins: Over.
Bonus Prediction: Eddie Lacy is the Offensive Rookie of the Year.
It feels like the Packers were somewhat disappointing last year. The running game was pathetic, their dismal offensive line allowed Aaron Rodgers to be sacked a league-leading 51 times, and ... they still went 11-5 and won the NFC North. A similarly successful season is on tap. Rookie Eddie Lacy, of Alabama Crimson Tide fame, is the running back this franchise desperately needs. Greg Jennings will be more than adequately replaced by the electrifying Randall Cobb, who could lead the league in receptions. This offense is once again balanced and menacing. With the NFL's best quarterback at the helm, a championship is within reach.
Over/Under 10.5 Wins: Over.
Bonus Prediction: Eddie Lacy is the Offensive Rookie of the Year.
2. Chicago Bears
The defense can't possibly be as dominant as it was last year. The onus is on Jay Cutler to improve an offense that accumulated the 5th-fewest yards in the NFL last year. New head coach Marc Trestman should help Cutler maximize his supporting cast, from Matt Forte to impressive second-year wideout Alshon Jeffrey. What's working against the Bears is the cutthroat NFC playoff competition, especially for the wild card. There's a chance that a 9-7 (or even 10-6) record might not be good enough for a playoff spot.
Over/Under 8.5 Wins: Over.
Bonus Prediction: Jay Cutler has his best season as the Bears' quarterback.
Over/Under 8.5 Wins: Over.
Bonus Prediction: Jay Cutler has his best season as the Bears' quarterback.
3. Detroit Lions
There's a lot to like here. The defensive line could be dominant. Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson will combine for more touchdowns. The addition of Reggie Bush should revive a running game that has been extinct for a few years. But the weaknesses -- no secondary, no receiving threat opposite Johnson, and crippling immaturity -- are too glaring to ignore. This looks like a six- or seven-win team.
Over/Under 8 Wins: Under.
Bonus Prediction: Reggie Bush leads all running backs in receptions.
4. Minnesota Vikings
Adrian Peterson doesn't play quarterback.
Over/Under 7.5 Wins: Under.
Bonus Prediction: Matt Cassel makes multiple starts at quarterback over Christian Ponder.
NFC South: "What is This 'Defense' Of Which You Speak?"
1. Atlanta Falcons
Their first-place status is far more precarious than people might imagine. The prolific passing offense will be back, and Steven Jackson represents a big upgrade over Michael Turner on the ground. But anyone who watched last year's playoffs knows just how badly this defense was embarrassed by Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick. The offensive line looks like a big problem, too. In a division with some good offenses, the Falcons can't keep relying on winning high-scoring shoot-outs every week. The outcomes of those games are too random. There's risk here.
Over/Under 10 Wins: Over (after all that negativity, still taking the over on 10 ... thought that number would be higher).
Bonus Prediction: Matt Ryan's yardage and touchdowns both decline from last year.
Bonus Prediction: Matt Ryan's yardage and touchdowns both decline from last year.
2. New Orleans Saints
Falcons at Saints, Week One. Saints at Falcons, Week 12. Those two games could be the highest-scoring and most-entertaining match-ups of the season. With Sean Payton back on the sidelines after a year-long suspension, and Jimmy Graham healthy, the Saints won't struggle to score gobs of points. But oh, this defense ... this defense surrendered over seven thousand yards last season, the most any team has ever given up. That's 440 yards per game. Oh, the Saints could still make the playoffs this season; even win the division. They're just going to have to average 45 points per game.
Over/Under 9 Wins: Over (flipped a coin, though).
Bonus Prediction: Drew Brees throws 50 touchdown passes.
Falcons at Saints, Week One. Saints at Falcons, Week 12. Those two games could be the highest-scoring and most-entertaining match-ups of the season. With Sean Payton back on the sidelines after a year-long suspension, and Jimmy Graham healthy, the Saints won't struggle to score gobs of points. But oh, this defense ... this defense surrendered over seven thousand yards last season, the most any team has ever given up. That's 440 yards per game. Oh, the Saints could still make the playoffs this season; even win the division. They're just going to have to average 45 points per game.
Over/Under 9 Wins: Over (flipped a coin, though).
Bonus Prediction: Drew Brees throws 50 touchdown passes.
3. Carolina Panthers
Not as bad as you think. Linebacker Luke Kuechly looked like a beast in the preseason and could be a Defensive Player of the Year candidate. Cam Newton was tremendous during the second half of last season. They went 3-1 against the Falcons and Saints. The offensive weapons around Newton still leave something to be desired, which is why they're listed third here, but at the very least they're becoming a thing that needs to be taken seriously.
Over/Under 7 Wins: Over (aiming for 8-8).
Bonus Prediction: Newton has more rushing yards and touchdowns than any running back on the team.
Not as bad as you think. Linebacker Luke Kuechly looked like a beast in the preseason and could be a Defensive Player of the Year candidate. Cam Newton was tremendous during the second half of last season. They went 3-1 against the Falcons and Saints. The offensive weapons around Newton still leave something to be desired, which is why they're listed third here, but at the very least they're becoming a thing that needs to be taken seriously.
Over/Under 7 Wins: Over (aiming for 8-8).
Bonus Prediction: Newton has more rushing yards and touchdowns than any running back on the team.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Yes, Doug Martin had a tremendous rookie season, and Darrelle Revis is now on the roster, and Vincent Jackson covers up for a lot of bad throws. That's all nice. Picking the Buccaneers last in this division is merely a reflection of how little confidence one should have in quarterback Josh Freeman. Freeman may have had the most uninspiring 4,000-yard season in quarterback history last year. He only completed 55% of his passes. He threw TWELVE interceptions in his final seven games. In a division where shoot-outs will be the norm, Freeman is a liability.
Over/Under 7.5 Wins: Under.
Bonus Prediction: Freeman gets benched at some point in favor of backup rookie Mike Glennon (ouch).
Yes, Doug Martin had a tremendous rookie season, and Darrelle Revis is now on the roster, and Vincent Jackson covers up for a lot of bad throws. That's all nice. Picking the Buccaneers last in this division is merely a reflection of how little confidence one should have in quarterback Josh Freeman. Freeman may have had the most uninspiring 4,000-yard season in quarterback history last year. He only completed 55% of his passes. He threw TWELVE interceptions in his final seven games. In a division where shoot-outs will be the norm, Freeman is a liability.
Over/Under 7.5 Wins: Under.
Bonus Prediction: Freeman gets benched at some point in favor of backup rookie Mike Glennon (ouch).
NFC West: "Here Be Dragons"
1. Seattle Seahawks
You could argue that the Seahawks are the best team in football. You could also argue that the Seahawks aren't even the best team in their division. The difference between the two opinions is actually miniscule. That's what happens when you share some geography with the 49ers. Both teams are serious Super Bowl contenders regardless of which one wins this division. Seattle's roster looks like a perfectly-balanced masterpiece: a hyper-physical running game, relentless playmakers at every level of a ruthless defense, fierce home field advantage, and an emerging multi-dimensional quarterback. There's so much to like here.
Over/Under 10.5 Wins: Over.
Bonus Prediction: The Seahawks lead the NFL in point differential.
You could argue that the Seahawks are the best team in football. You could also argue that the Seahawks aren't even the best team in their division. The difference between the two opinions is actually miniscule. That's what happens when you share some geography with the 49ers. Both teams are serious Super Bowl contenders regardless of which one wins this division. Seattle's roster looks like a perfectly-balanced masterpiece: a hyper-physical running game, relentless playmakers at every level of a ruthless defense, fierce home field advantage, and an emerging multi-dimensional quarterback. There's so much to like here.
Over/Under 10.5 Wins: Over.
Bonus Prediction: The Seahawks lead the NFL in point differential.
2. San Francisco 49ers
Eerily similar to the Seahawks: an intensely physical team with a stifling defense, overpowering running game, and dual-threat quarterback. Their weakness is the same, too: the absence of an elite receiver. Both teams lost their #1 options to offseason injuries -- Percy Harvin and Michael Crabtree. Now Colin Kaepernick has to make do with the painfully-slow Anquan Boldin and the painfully-inconsistent Vernon Davis. It doesn't particularly matter, though. This is nitpicking. You'll need to play virtually flawless football to beat the Niners this season.
Over/Under 11 Wins: Over.
Bonus Prediction: Rookie Quinton Patton evolves into the team's best receiver by season's end.
Eerily similar to the Seahawks: an intensely physical team with a stifling defense, overpowering running game, and dual-threat quarterback. Their weakness is the same, too: the absence of an elite receiver. Both teams lost their #1 options to offseason injuries -- Percy Harvin and Michael Crabtree. Now Colin Kaepernick has to make do with the painfully-slow Anquan Boldin and the painfully-inconsistent Vernon Davis. It doesn't particularly matter, though. This is nitpicking. You'll need to play virtually flawless football to beat the Niners this season.
Over/Under 11 Wins: Over.
Bonus Prediction: Rookie Quinton Patton evolves into the team's best receiver by season's end.
3. St. Louis Rams
We still need to see growth from Sam Bradford, who has stagnated a bit in the two years since his solid rookie season. Losing trusted target Danny Amendola hurts in that regard. But otherwise, Bradford's supporting cast got much better. Chris Givens made a 50-plus-yard catch in five straight games last year. Lightning-quick rookie Tavon Austin was the first offensive skill player selected in the draft. The offensive line and defense have improved. Granted, a .500 record is a bit much to ask from a team that has to play Seattle and San Francisco four times. Yet this might be the best third-place team in football.
Over/Under 7.5 Wins: Under.
Bonus Prediction: Daryl Richardson rushes for more yards than Steven Jackson had last year (1,042).
We still need to see growth from Sam Bradford, who has stagnated a bit in the two years since his solid rookie season. Losing trusted target Danny Amendola hurts in that regard. But otherwise, Bradford's supporting cast got much better. Chris Givens made a 50-plus-yard catch in five straight games last year. Lightning-quick rookie Tavon Austin was the first offensive skill player selected in the draft. The offensive line and defense have improved. Granted, a .500 record is a bit much to ask from a team that has to play Seattle and San Francisco four times. Yet this might be the best third-place team in football.
Over/Under 7.5 Wins: Under.
Bonus Prediction: Daryl Richardson rushes for more yards than Steven Jackson had last year (1,042).
4. Arizona Cardinals
How good is this division? The Cardinals have an emerging defense, a quarterback who had four thousand yards passing last year, and one of the best receivers in the NFL ... and they're probably headed for last place. Like the Rams, though, they're light-years better than other bottom-of-the-barrel teams like the Raiders or Jaguars. Say what you want about an over-the-hill Carson Palmer: he's miles better than the trash Arizona had playing quarterback last year (Kevin Kolb, John Skelton, Ryan Lindley, and Brian Hoyer, if you were wondering). The Palmer-to-Larry Fitzgerald connection should raise this offense back towards league-average. The defense is already at that level, if not better. There's nothing particularly exciting about this roster, but it's better than people think. Six wins (while not exactly the loftiest goal) are attainable.
Over/Under 5.5 Wins: Over.
Bonus Prediction: No Arizona Cardinal reaches the 1,000-yard rushing plateau.
How good is this division? The Cardinals have an emerging defense, a quarterback who had four thousand yards passing last year, and one of the best receivers in the NFL ... and they're probably headed for last place. Like the Rams, though, they're light-years better than other bottom-of-the-barrel teams like the Raiders or Jaguars. Say what you want about an over-the-hill Carson Palmer: he's miles better than the trash Arizona had playing quarterback last year (Kevin Kolb, John Skelton, Ryan Lindley, and Brian Hoyer, if you were wondering). The Palmer-to-Larry Fitzgerald connection should raise this offense back towards league-average. The defense is already at that level, if not better. There's nothing particularly exciting about this roster, but it's better than people think. Six wins (while not exactly the loftiest goal) are attainable.
Over/Under 5.5 Wins: Over.
Bonus Prediction: No Arizona Cardinal reaches the 1,000-yard rushing plateau.
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