As you're probably aware, the Pittsburgh Pirates are in the midst of their most successful season in two decades. With a month left in the season, they're involved in a thrilling three-way death race in the NL Central. On Thursday, Pittsburgh entered play tied for first place in the division (they haven't made the playoffs since 1992). That night, the Pirates faced the Brewers at home, looking for a three-game sweep of the series. Their starting pitcher was rookie Gerrit Cole, the first overall pick in the 2011 Draft. The game drew an 8.3 TV rating.
Simultaneously, the NFL's Pittsburgh Steelers were playing their fourth preseason game, against the Carolina Panthers. Neither team started any of their key players in the meaningless contest. The three quarterbacks who saw time were Landry Jones, Derek Anderson, and Jimmy Clausen. That game's TV rating? 21.3, nearly triple that of the pennant-racing Pirates.
The NFL is a big freaking deal.
AFC East: "Brady Versus Boys"
1. New England Patriots
Wes Welker is in Denver, Danny Woodhead is in San Diego, Aaron Hernandez is in court, Brandon Lloyd is on unemployment, and Rob Gronkowski is in rehab. And the Patriots are still going to win this division by a handful of games. Tom Brady is just going to elevate a new supporting cast to stardom. Going from Welker to Danny Amendola in the slot is actually an upgrade on talent alone, and the only thing keeping him from a monster season (like 1,300 yards, 8 touchdowns) is his health. Shane Vereen is going to be a Darren Sproles-like mismatch out of the backfield. And maybe undrafted free agents Zach Sudfeld and Kenbrell Thompkins -- both generating healthy preseason buzz -- can hold down the fort until Gronkowski returns. The other quarterbacks in this division are Ryan Tannehill, E.J. Manuel, and Mark Sanchez. The Patriots will be juuuuust fine.
Over/Under 11 Wins: Over.
Bonus Prediction: Tom Brady wins the MVP Award.
2. Miami Dolphins
The 2013 Miami Dolphins are eerily reminiscent of the 2012 Miami Marlins: everyone's favorite "sleeper team" that threw a ton of money at free agents but ends up disappointing anyway. Ryan Tannehill needs to make huge strides for this team to go anywhere (he threw 12 TDs and 13 interceptions last year). Their questionable offensive line might not allow him to do so. And their schedule is incredibly tough: they face the Browns, Colts, Falcons, Saints, and Ravens before their Week 6 bye. The x-factor here is second-year running back Lamar Miller. The Dolphins were confident enough in his abilities to let Reggie Bush go in free agency and a breakout season is on tap. Still, this feels like a .500 team at best.
Over/Under 8 Wins: Under.
Bonus Prediction: Lamar Miller accumulates 1,500 total yards.
3. Buffalo Bills
The Bills are going to be one of those bad teams that's still fun to watch. Maybe not in Week One, when they're scheduled to start undrafted rookie Jeff Tuel at quarterback against the Patriots. But once duel-threat first-rounder E.J. Manuel gets healthy, Buffalo will be one of the fastest and most exciting offenses in the NFL. The centerpiece will be C.J. Spiller, who was one of only two running backs in 2012 (Adrian Peterson being the other) to average six yards per carry. He's one of the most elusive players in the NFL yet also ranked near the top of the league in stats like yards after contact and forced missed tackles. Yet even if Spiller has the beastly season he's poised to enjoy, this defense isn't stopping anybody, so it won't particularly matter.
Over/Under 6.5 Wins: Under.
Bonus Prediction: C.J. Spiller leads all NFL running backs in yards from scrimmage this season.
4. New York Jets
Fun fact: in his first two seasons, Mark Sanchez beat Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady in road playoff games. Not all fun facts have to make sense, you know.
Over/Under 6.5 Wins: Under.
Bonus Prediction: Rex Ryan is NOT the first head coach fired this season.
AFC North: "Mediocrity Disguised as Parity"
1. Cincinnati Bengals
The 2013 NFL season is a big one for Andy Dalton. Armed with an excellent defense and some fantastic offensive weapons, the Bengals are ready for a significant run through the playoffs. They have to find out whether or not Dalton is the quarterback who can take them there. He threw for over 3,600 yards and 27 touchdowns last season, but faded in a big way down the stretch. Is he going to take the Matt Ryan Step Forward or the Mark Sanchez Step Back? The Bengals need to know the answer sooner rather than later.
Over/Under 8.5 Wins: Over.
Bonus Prediction: Rookie Giovani Bernard takes over the starting running back job and leads all rookies in yardage.
2. Baltimore Ravens
Flukier championship team: 2007 New York Giants or 2012 Baltimore Ravens? Which leads to a better question: is Joe Flacco on the same career path as Eli Manning? Manning used that first Super Bowl as a springboard to jump into the ranks of the league's elite quarterbacks. The Ravens clearly think Flacco can do the same. It's certainly possible. Just keep in mind that Flacco has never thrown as many touchdowns as Andy Dalton threw last year (27). The Ravens are going to need him to take that next step, because the secondary players around him are as weak as they've ever been. Bottom line: the Ravens could finish in first place or last, and neither outcome would be particularly surprising. Nothing about the Ravens can be surprising anymore.
Over/Under 8.5 Wins: Over. No ... under. No -- over.
Bonus Prediction: Flacco posts career highs in yardage, touchdowns, and interceptions.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
An ugly, ugly football team. And not even necessarily in a bad way. Just ugly. The offensive line is so bad that they'll probably run the ball at a three-yards-per-carry rate. So they'll have to throw. But the offensive line is so bad that there's no way Ben Roethlisberger stays healthy for 16 games. In a division this tight, those two or three games that Big Ben misses will be the difference between a playoff berth and third place.
Over/Under 9 Wins: Under.
Bonus Prediction: No Steelers running back reaches 1,000 yards on the ground.
4. Cleveland Browns
In each of the last 10 NFL seasons, at least one team has finished first in its division after finishing in last the year before. The Browns have the best chance of accomplishing that feat in the AFC (mostly because the Bills, Jaguars, and Chiefs ain't doing it). The defense is extremely underrated and second-year running back Trent Richardson is poised for a breakout season behind an elite offensive line. They also get to play the Vikings, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, and Jets. Their fate likely lies with the development of quarterback Brandon Weeden under accomplished offensive coordinator Norv Turner. The playoffs might not be in the cards for Cleveland this year. Things are looking up, though.
Over/Under 6 Wins: Over.
Bonus Prediction: After he returns from his two-week suspension, second-year supplemental draft pick Josh Gordon will explode and become the breakout wide receiver of 2013.
AFC South: "50% Relevant"
1. Houston Texans
They're up here in first place by default. The defense will be strong again, and four of their six divisional games are near-automatic cakewalks. But that doesn't hide the fact that the Texans are the most boring good team in football. The offensive play-calling is infuriatingly conservative. Matt Schaub is Joe Flacco without the cannon arm. Arian Foster is aching after more than four hundred and fifty touches last season, including the playoffs. Andre Johnson is aging. The offensive line is declining. This is a very good regular season team that has little to no hope of beating Tom Brady or Peyton Manning in a playoff game.
Over/Under 10.5 Wins: Over.
Bonus Prediction: Former rushing champion Arian Foster averages fewer than four yards per carry.
2. Indianapolis Colts
There are two directly opposing schools of thought on the 2013 Colts. Predicting their season is all about choosing which narrative your prefer.
Narrative A: The Colts improved from 2-14 in 2011 to 11-5 in 2012; teams that that kind of improbable leap in win-loss record historically always fall back to earth in the following season. They also benefited from a laughably-easy schedule, which won't be the case in 2013. Andrew Luck's 54% completion rate and 18 interceptions (plus many more that were dropped) are concerning. This team screams regression.
Narrative B: Andrew Luck is about to make the leap into stardom. With a more conservative offensive coordinator and better protection up front, Luck's completion and turnover rates will improve, leading to more sustained drives and more touchdowns. The supporting cast is a year older and continues to get better. Ahmad Bradshaw is a huge upgrade for the running game, which was non-existent last year. This team will maintain its 2012 success, and perhaps improve on it.
Like most things, the truth here probably lies somewhere in the middle.
Over/Under 8.5 Wins: Over.
Bonus Prediction: Third receiver T.Y. Hilton will collect over 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns.
3. Tennessee Titans
The drop-off within this division from the Texans and Colts to the Titans and Jaguars is massive. It's difficult to envision the Titans making any noise this year, not with Jake Locker at quarterback. He's too inaccurate and turnover-prone for this offense to find any rhythm, and it's not like the defense can pick up the slack. It wouldn't be surprising if the Titans look to select a quarterback with their first-round pick next year.
Over/Under 6.5 Wins: Under.
Bonus Prediction: Chris Johnson enjoys a comeback season, rushing for 1,500 yards behind a revamped offensive line.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
Not as bad as you think. Don't get me wrong -- they're awful. Just more "4-12" awful than "2-14" awful. Maurice Jones-Drew is back and healthy in a contract year. Cecil Shorts and Justin Blackmon each had flashes of brilliance last year as play-making wideouts. They're bad enough to finish in last place, but maybe not bad enough to snag the first overall pick in next year's draft.
Over/Under 5 Wins: Under.
Bonus Prediction: Blaine Gabbert won't be benched for performance reasons at any point in the season.
AFC West: "The Foregone Conclusion"
1. Denver Broncos
The Broncos have question marks all over their defense, no sure thing at running back, and a 37-year-old quarterback with multiple neck surgeries ... and they're a lock to win this division. That's how good this passing game is going to be. Peyton Manning picked the league apart last year and now gets to throw to Wes Welker, too. As the season progresses, rookie Montee Ball will solidify the running game and Von Miller's return from suspension will strengthen the defense. Manning's neck is just about the only thing that can stop this team from the AFC Championship Game.
Over/Under 11.5 Wins: Over.
Bonus Prediction: Manning leads the NFL in passing yardage.
2. Kansas City Chiefs
A massive improvement is coming. There's nowhere to go but up following a 2-14 season. But Alex Smith's limitations as a downfield passer will likely cap that improvement to, say, 7-9 rather than 9-7. Smith's success with the 49ers was created by their run-heavy system and elite offensive line, neither of which will follow him to Kansas City. On the positive side: upgrading from Romeo Crennel to Andy Reid at head coach should be a worth a couple wins alone. And a healthy Jamaal Charles should be in line for another huge season.
Over/Under 7.5 Wins: Under (very slightly).
Bonus Prediction: Jamaal Charles accumulates 2,000 yards from scrimmage.
3. San Diego Chargers
The Chargers are absolute dreck. Philip Rivers looks cooked, Ryan Mathews has been a dud, the receiving corps is decimated. Even if they play some defense, they won't score any points, so who really cares?
Over/Under 7.5 Wins: UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER
Bonus Prediction: Philip Rivers makes fewer starts in 2013 than Blaine Gabbert.
4. Oakland Raiders
The preseason quarterback "battle" was between Matt Flynn and Terrelle Pryor. This roster is one giant dumpster.
Over/Under 5.5 Wins: Under, with supreme confidence.
Bonus Prediction: The Oakland Raiders pick first in the 2014 NFL Draft.
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